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Colin Robertson

@mortgagetruth.bsky.social
341 followers 87 following 852 posts

Wholesale AE in the early 2000s. Commentary on mortgage/real estate/housing market since 2006 @ thetruthaboutmortgage.com

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Colin Robertson @mortgagetruth.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
Something we have to start thinking about again is mortgage rate lock-in. If rates go higher or simply sustain around ~7.5%, more and more homeowners are locked in w/ their 2-4% mortgage rates. Fewer can buy w/ higher rates, but also fewer will sell.
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Colin Robertson @mortgagetruth.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
The least desirable path to lower mortgage rates seems to be the only one *firing* lately. Less job creation and higher unemployment. Not the best way to get the housing market humming again.
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Colin Robertson @mortgagetruth.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
It seems inevitable now that mortgage rates will hit a new cycle high. The last peak was 7.79% in late October 2023. Chances are the new high will be somewhere in the 8s. Similar to the double peak seen in the early 80s. Question is when? This year? Next year?
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Colin Robertson @mortgagetruth.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
The Fed's preferred inflation gauge (PCE) came in cool today. Typically good news for mortgage rates, but yields are still up thanks to higher consumer spending and the jobs report on deck. So once again we need labor to soften if we want mortgage rates to come down.
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Colin Robertson @mortgagetruth.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
If you've seen this chart and think mortgage rates could pull off a similar double-top move. We'd be looking at a 30-year fixed peaking at ~8.88%, per Freddie Mac. That'd likely put it just into the low 9s, per daily rate indexes like MND. But that's only if history repeats.
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Colin Robertson @mortgagetruth.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Mortgage rates feel pretty hopeless right now. They’ve risen from sub-6% to the mid-7s in just the past six months. At this time last month, the 30-year fixed was around 6.75% and today it’s closer to 7.5%. So what can save mortgage rates, if anything at all?
thetruthaboutmortgage.com
What Can Save Mortgage Rates? - The Truth About Mortgage
Mortgage rates feel pretty hopeless right now. They’ve risen from sub-6% to the mid-7s in just the past six months. With a meteoric rise over the past month, climbing nearly a full percentage point. A...
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Colin Robertson @mortgagetruth.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
"It's possible that mortgage rates go up to 9%, but it's really not our base-case scenario." "So what is the base-case scenario..." "Mostly in line with where we are today...which leaves mortgage rates in the 7% range." Oh.
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Colin Robertson @mortgagetruth.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Mortgage rates are now the highest since they've been since early 2025. The next logical question is how high will they go? Next stop could be 7.50% (last seen in April 2024), or 8% (the current cycle high last seen in October 2023).
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Colin Robertson @mortgagetruth.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Mortgage rates are now the highest of President Trump's second term. Just above 7.25%, matching the worst levels since January 2025. Latest culprit was a hot PMI report (more inflation) and tough Iran talk from T that flipped back to the offensive.
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Colin Robertson @mortgagetruth.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Apparently a mid-4% mortgage rate would persuade home buyers to participate in the market again. But we're back above 7%. "Interest rates in the U.S. aren’t going to dip down to the levels people want for at least another three years." - Cotality chief economist Selma Hepp.
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Colin Robertson @mortgagetruth.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Now there's finally a benefit to having an 800+ credit score.
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Colin Robertson @mortgagetruth.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Maybe mortgage rates like the Fed rate hike after all. And even with another hike later this year, 10-year yields (and mortgage rates) could fall. But a lot of it will depend on the ME conflict and oil prices.
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Colin Robertson @mortgagetruth.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
The Fed is almost guaranteed to hike rates today. Odds are currently around 93%, per CME FedWatch, meaning it’s basically a sure thing. In the Fed’s history, they’ve never defied odds like that so a ¼-point hike should be delivered as expected. The impact on mortgage rates is less certain.
thetruthaboutmortgage.com
What Will Today’s Fed Rate Hike Mean for Mortgage Rates? - The Truth About Mortgage
The Federal Reserve is almost guaranteed to hike rates today. Odds are currently around 93%, per CME FedWatch, meaning it’s basically a sure thing. In the Fed’s history, they’ve never defied odds like...
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Colin Robertson @mortgagetruth.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
I feel like Chase having a mortgage rate sale (and that you MUST LOCK by October 4th!) is a good sign that mortgage rates will fall in the near future.
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Colin Robertson @mortgagetruth.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
Mortgage rates are now almost exactly 1% higher than they were a year ago. Last September: 6.13% This September: 7.12%
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Colin Robertson @mortgagetruth.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
President Trump faces the highest mortgage rates of his 2nd term going into midterms. He entered office w/ the 30-yr fixed at 6.96% and today it's 6.71%. While campaigning he said, "Today the mortgage rates are at 10%, 11%, 12%...we will drive down the rate so you will be able to pay 2% again."
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Colin Robertson @mortgagetruth.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
Mortgage rates have already had a rough couple of weeks. But it could get even worse if a pair of inflation reports come in hot later this week. We’ve got both the PPI and CPI reports being released this week, with the potential to make or break a Fed rate hike next week.
thetruthaboutmortgage.com
Two Big Inflation Reports Could Push Mortgage Rates Back to 7% This Week - The Truth About Mortgage
Mortgage rates have already had a rough couple of weeks. But it could get even worse if a pair of inflation reports come in hot later this week. We’ve got both the Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consu...
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Colin Robertson @mortgagetruth.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
Blowout jobs report (162k vs. 53k) means no relief for mortgage rates. September hike odds also climb to +60%. But move higher is incremental... The 30-year fixed is currently 6.88% per MND, up from 6.85% last month. And 6.71% per Freddie Mac, up from 6.69% a month ago. Perhaps top is in?
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Colin Robertson @mortgagetruth.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
Fewer homeowners are making extra mortgage payments, per a new Rocket study. Ironically, extra payments are most commonly made by those who locked in the lowest rates from 2020-2022. Conversely, those w/ higher-rate mortgages who stand to save the most are unable to b/c they can't afford to.
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Colin Robertson @mortgagetruth.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
The saving grace for mortgage rates right now is that despite fresh 52-week highs, it's super incremental. It's not like 2022-2023 when we went from 3% to 8% rates in the span of months. We've gone from 6% to 6.875% and remain in a range. Huge difference.
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Colin Robertson @mortgagetruth.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
First strikes on Iran in almost exactly a month send oil prices, bond yields, and mortgage rates higher. The bellwether 10-year bond yield is now back at its 52-week high. Saving grace is tighter spreads and hungry lenders offering better pricing due to lack of volume.
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Colin Robertson @mortgagetruth.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
Why mortgage rates are stuck near 52-week highs: - Iran war and elevated oil prices - High government debt and heavy bond issuance - AI buildout flooding the bond market - Sticky inflation - Fed rate expectations (threat of hikes)
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Colin Robertson @mortgagetruth.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
Mortgage payments are up 57% since 2019, per FICO: $1,635 → $2,563 But $1,635 in 2019 ≈ $2,136 today due to inflation. If home prices & rates stay flat + inflation continues, the 2031 nominal payment remains at $2,563, which would be the same real purchasing power as that $1,635 in 2019.
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Colin Robertson @mortgagetruth.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
Much of the recent uptick in mortgage rates has been attributed to the war with Iran. But there is perhaps another, lesser known reason mortgage rates have pushed back into the high 6s. All the AI spending and related bond issuance, leading to higher yields across all investments.
thetruthaboutmortgage.com
Is AI Pushing Mortgage Rates Higher? - The Truth About Mortgage
A lot of the recent uptick in mortgage rates has been attributed to the ongoing war with Iran. But there is perhaps another, lesser known reason mortgage rates have pushed back into the high 6s. And i...
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Colin Robertson @mortgagetruth.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
Best way to sum up mortgage rates right now is any "good news" is simply stopping the bleeding. You're not seeing sizable drops when positive stuff happens. Just rates managing not to get any worse and narrowly avoiding a return to 7%.
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Colin Robertson @mortgagetruth.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
Just as it appeared there was no relief for mortgage rates, Treasury stepped in. No, this isn’t QE all over again, and mortgage rates aren’t headed back to the 3s. But it's a way to boost bond market liquidity, which should help push rates down a bit. www.thetruthaboutmortgage.com/mortgage-rat...
thetruthaboutmortgage.com
Mortgage Rates Get Help From Unexpected Treasury Buyback Program - The Truth About Mortgage
Just as it appeared there was no relief in sight for mortgage rates, the Treasury Department stepped in. No, this isn’t QE all over again, and mortgage rates aren’t headed back to the 3s. Wishful thin...
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Colin Robertson @mortgagetruth.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
It seems mortgage rates can’t catch a break lately. So maybe we need a Plan B. Or rather, a Plan C! Whenever Jim Cramer says something, the opposite tends to happen. And he just said bonds keep dropping relentlessly, meaning their yields keep rising. That could be good news for mortgage rates!
thetruthaboutmortgage.com
Can Jim Cramer Save Mortgage Rates? - The Truth About Mortgage
It seems mortgage rates can’t catch a break lately. So maybe we need a Plan B.  Or rather, a Plan C! Have you ever heard of Inverse Cramer? Whenever Jim Cramer says something, the opposite tends to ha...
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Colin Robertson @mortgagetruth.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
People always say homeownership is a terrible investment. That you can rent for less, invest the difference and make out better. Problem is renters aren't disciplined enough to invest the difference. To be fair, nor are homeowners, but for them it's forced savings so they don't have a choice.
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Colin Robertson @mortgagetruth.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
CPI came in as expected this AM, but bond yields aren't getting much relief. Focus remains on oil prices and resolution w/ Iran as talks stall again. Mortgage rates seem to be getting further entrenched at these levels. But silver lining might be no Fed hikes if data continues to cooperate.
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Colin Robertson @mortgagetruth.bsky.social · 08/08/2026
Zillow Home Loans nearly doubled (+95%) its home purchase lending from a year ago. They're growing rapidly and are now a top-25 purchase lender nationally. Rocket owns the other big consumer RE portal, Redfin. Tough to compete if you don't own high-intent consumer eyeballs.
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Colin Robertson @mortgagetruth.bsky.social · 07/08/2026
Today's big jobs report miss might be more about mortgage rates not going any HIGHER rather than them moving significantly lower. In other words, avoiding a return to a 7% 30-year fixed. As opposed to falling back to 6% or lower.
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Colin Robertson @mortgagetruth.bsky.social · 06/08/2026
Big jobs report on deck tomorrow. Could make or break the Fed's decision to hike or stay put at the September meeting. And determine if mortgage rates head toward 7% or cool off again. Bond yields already playing defense today.
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Colin Robertson @mortgagetruth.bsky.social · 05/08/2026
Perhaps just a psychological loss, but mortgage rates are now higher than they were a year ago. The 30-year fixed is averaging 6.75%, while its year-ago average was closer to 6.50%. This is yet another blow to the housing market, which has struggled with affordability woes for several years now.
thetruthaboutmortgage.com
Mortgage Rates Are Now Higher Than They Were a Year Ago - The Truth About Mortgage
Perhaps this is just a psychological loss, but mortgage rates are now higher than they were a year ago. If you look at rates last August, they were below
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Colin Robertson @mortgagetruth.bsky.social · 05/08/2026
Chase getting aggressive on the discount points. Sheesh.
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Colin Robertson @mortgagetruth.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
At this point it seems abundantly clear. De-escalate and mortgage rates FALL. Ratchet up the war talk and mortgage rates go UP. The same seems to be true of the wider stock market. Which begs the question, when do we just cut our losses and make a deal?
thetruthaboutmortgage.com
War De-escalation = Lower Mortgage Rates - The Truth About Mortgage
At this point it seems abundantly clear. De-escalate and mortgage rates fall. Ratchet up the war talk and mortgage rates go up. The same seems to go for
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Colin Robertson @mortgagetruth.bsky.social · 03/08/2026
Mortgage rates continue to avoid the dreaded 7-handle. This time, thanks to a taco. Ultimately, the core driver of mortgage rates right now is the conflict with Iran. Any ratcheting up, and mortgage rates rise. Things cool off, so do mortgage rates. But how long will this strategy work?
thetruthaboutmortgage.com
Mortgage Rates Get Much Needed Relief Thanks to a Taco? - The Truth About Mortgage
Well, it looks like mortgage rates will continue to avoid the dreaded 7-handle. This time, thanks to a taco. Ultimately, the core driver of mortgage rates
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Colin Robertson @mortgagetruth.bsky.social · 31/07/2026
CNBC has rolled out the little yellow 52-week high banner again. Seen it a lot lately... Mortgage rates, which move in lockstep, will go up today as well. Maybe they should get a special banner when they hit 52-week highs too.
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Colin Robertson @mortgagetruth.bsky.social · 30/07/2026
Trump says new Fed chair Kevin Warsh wants LOWER rates, but is hamstrung by a "political board." Meanwhile, we could have the rate cuts he wants and the lower mortgage rates he campaigned on if we simply avoided global conflicts.
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Colin Robertson @mortgagetruth.bsky.social · 25/07/2026
This couple EACH had a home w/ a sub-3% mortgage rate. So it was doable to sell and take a new 6% rate on one house. For many others, this isn't even an option. They can't afford to move at today's combo of rates/prices. Even then, giving up not one but TWO sub-3% mortgages makes me shudder.
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Colin Robertson @mortgagetruth.bsky.social · 23/07/2026
The 10-year bond yield just hit a new 52-week high this AM. Expect the 30-year fixed mortgage to do so as well today. And now the thought of a dreaded 7-handle is back on the table.
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Colin Robertson @mortgagetruth.bsky.social · 17/07/2026
Mortgage rates matched their 2026-highs earlier this week. Soon you're going to hear that mortgage rates are higher than they were a year ago. And then potentially at fresh 52-week highs, which will be anything above 6.75% and not all that hard to break.
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Colin Robertson @mortgagetruth.bsky.social · 14/07/2026
After the 30-year fixed matched its war-time high (6.75%), relief is coming today. CPI came in cool, with prices falling 0.4% thanks to lower energy prices. Core CPI that excludes food/energy also came in below forecast. Could set the stage for a patient Fed and help us avoid a 7% mortgage rate.
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Colin Robertson @mortgagetruth.bsky.social · 13/07/2026
The 10-year bond yield has breached 4.60% and the 30-year fixed mortgage could move back to 6.75%. That'd match a war-time high, last seen about two months ago, though it's important to remember a lot is already baked in. So rates might have limited upside risk and more downside potential.
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Colin Robertson @mortgagetruth.bsky.social · 08/07/2026
Just when you thought the possibility of a 7% mortgage rate was behind us.
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Colin Robertson @mortgagetruth.bsky.social · 06/07/2026
Like Millennials and every generation before them, Gen Z is finding a way to become homeowners. They accounted for 20% of all purchase rate locks in Q2, the largest share on record per ICE. The oldest members of this cohort are now ~29, still well below the mid-30s FTHB age.
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Colin Robertson @mortgagetruth.bsky.social · 03/07/2026
I don't remember having this problem in 2008.
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Colin Robertson @mortgagetruth.bsky.social · 02/07/2026
Another weak jobs report (and two monthly negative revisions) takes pressure off bond yields and mortgage rates. It also allows tough-talking Warsh to do nothing, just like his predecessor Jerome Powell. Only difference is he can pretend hikes are coming to satisfy the hawks.
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Colin Robertson @mortgagetruth.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
The guy (Kevin Warsh) who was hired to save mortgage rates says "prices are too high." The Fed doesn't control mortgage rates, but its Chair can certainly impact bond yields. Goes to show no matter who's in charge, it's tough to get what you want, at least quickly.
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Colin Robertson @mortgagetruth.bsky.social · 30/06/2026
Incoming changes to capital requirements will encourage banks to originate and hold mortgages again. This could translate to a 15 to 40-bp drop in pricing (and up to 50 bps) for those with LTVs below 60%. E.g. your 30-year fixed falls from ~6.375% to ~5.99%.
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Colin Robertson @mortgagetruth.bsky.social · 25/06/2026
We already have oil prices back at about pre-war levels. So why not bond yields? And by extension mortgage rates? We're about halfway back now and if recent trend continues, could return to a sub-6% 30-year fixed.
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