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mikeinsdevon.bsky.social @mikeinsdevon.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Er, under SV the second round would've been between the Tories and Reform. So they'd have almost certainly still got a Tory mayor.

Screenshot from Wikipedia showing results of the 2025 Cambridgeshire mayoral election

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mikeinsdevon.bsky.social @mikeinsdevon.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Answered as best I could. Sentence actually sums me well I think though not sure about the historical comparison!

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mikeinsdevon.bsky.social @mikeinsdevon.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

The papers imagined it? FWIW think this one looks a bit outlier-ish, Lib Dems and Tories both look too low. Also disagree with some individual seats in the custom nowcast (can't see any scenario where Lab hold Pendle & Clitheroe or Poole + for obvious reasons doubt they hold NE Somerset & Hanham)

Seat projection from Election Maps custom nowcast based on Find Out Now, September 30 2026.

Labour: 310 seats (- 101 from 2024 GE), range 233-361
Reform: 98 seats (+ 93), range 62-173
Lib Dem: 69 seats (- 3), range 35-80
Conservative: 63 seats (- 58), range 34-111
SNP: 47 seats (+ 38), range 37-50
Plaid Cymru: 19 seats (+ 15), range 14-23
Green: 12 seats (+ 8), range 7-33
independents: 9 seats (+ 4), range 7-15
Workers Party: 3 seats (+ 3), range 1-3
Restore: 1 seat (+ 1), range 1-1

Speaker and 18 Northern Ireland seats not shown

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mikeinsdevon.bsky.social @mikeinsdevon.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

It was an anti-Tory vote as part of an electoral pact. There were literally only two candidates on the ballot.

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mikeinsdevon.bsky.social @mikeinsdevon.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

All is not well in the Workers Party 🤣 Bit more hopeful now that cat man loses his deposit.

Tweet from Chris Williamson

"I have tonight resigned from the Workers Party of Britain because I profoundly disagree with the decision to stand in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election. I have a huge amount of respect for George Galloway, but I believe we should get behind Zack Polanski on this occasion. My... [show more]"

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mikeinsdevon.bsky.social @mikeinsdevon.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

Seat projection from Election Maps UK. Not convinced about the Workers Party winning anything though.

Seat projection for YouGov poll dated September 13-14 2026 from Election Maps UK.

Labour: 207 (range 142-259)
Reform: 138 (range 90-199)
Conservative: 114 (range 79-154)
Liberal Democrats: 85 (range 70-97)
Scottish National Party: 46 (range 42-49)
Green: 21 (range 10-42)
Plaid Cymru: 11 (range 8-16)
independents: 7 (range 4-17)
Restore Britain: 1 (range 0-1)
Workers Party: 1 (range 0-3)

Speaker and 18 Northern Ireland seats not included.

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mikeinsdevon.bsky.social @mikeinsdevon.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

Must be a fair amount of uncertainty around seat projections? I put same numbers into Election Maps and got this

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mikeinsdevon.bsky.social @mikeinsdevon.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

Presumably would mean a Labour-Lib Dem arrangement. Actually projects a really stable outcome compared to some recent polls, even if it would be a landslide combined majority on just 38%.

Election Maps UK projected seats for the Find Out Now poll.

Labour - 286 (range 218-339)
Reform - 114 (range 68-177)
Lib Dem - 80 (range 69-95)
Conservative - 76 (range 50-113)
SNP - 43 (range 29-44)
Green - 19 (range 11-38)
Plaid Cymru - 7 (range 5-9)
minor/independents - 5 (range 2-14)
Restore - 1 (range 1-1)

Speaker and 18 Northern Ireland seats not included

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mikeinsdevon.bsky.social @mikeinsdevon.bsky.social · 08/09/2026

Bit of uncertainty around SNP/Plaid numbers as couldn't find tables but that looks ungovernable.

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mikeinsdevon.bsky.social @mikeinsdevon.bsky.social · 15/08/2026

Might be a good time to think about media reform?

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mikeinsdevon.bsky.social @mikeinsdevon.bsky.social · 14/08/2026

Looks like another second election poll. Can't see any of the viable coalitions/arrangements actually happening. * Lab + Ref - 400 seats * Lab + Con + LD - 363 seats * Ref + Con + LD - 345 seats * Lab + LD + SNP - 328 seats * Ref + Con + SNP + Plaid - 328 seats

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mikeinsdevon.bsky.social @mikeinsdevon.bsky.social · 06/08/2026

This might be one of the more ridiculous outcomes of the English council reorganisation.

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mikeinsdevon.bsky.social @mikeinsdevon.bsky.social · 01/08/2026

100% agreed something needs to be done about social media companies. This just came up as "suggested" on Instagram. The last bit is chilling, but the sort who believe AI + conspiracy crap online will lap it up.

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mikeinsdevon.bsky.social @mikeinsdevon.bsky.social · 24/07/2026

On those numbers would take a four party alliance (Lab + LD + SNP + Green) to get a majority. Difference between a more stable leftish arrangement (say Lab + LD) and a right wing coalition down to a few dozen tilt seats. Almost as though FPTP is more a lottery than a legitimate voting system.

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mikeinsdevon.bsky.social @mikeinsdevon.bsky.social · 21/07/2026

Possible, but more likely a second election I'd guess. Saying "possible" given the number of tilt seats.

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mikeinsdevon.bsky.social @mikeinsdevon.bsky.social · 18/07/2026

From Election Maps UK (user input nowcast). Lab + LD + SNP + Green would scrape a majority.

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mikeinsdevon.bsky.social @mikeinsdevon.bsky.social · 16/07/2026

Daily Mail not happy. What happened to "it's just banter", or does that only apply when the English mock Scotland's early exits? The comments are for the most part as vile as you'd expect.

Screenshot of a Daily Mail story - "Fury as Scottish Labour and SNP MPs join forces to celebrate England crashing out of the World Cup to Argentina"

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mikeinsdevon.bsky.social @mikeinsdevon.bsky.social · 07/07/2026

There is precedent for major parties not contesting these kind of by-elections. (Actually maybe the comparison's unfair. David Davis caused his on a matter of principle, not just as a publicity stunt)

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mikeinsdevon.bsky.social @mikeinsdevon.bsky.social · 01/07/2026

Terrifying thing is someone will have been paid to come up with this.

Screenshot of Daily Express website.

Story headline: "Did Rolf Harris go to prison and is he still alive?"

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mikeinsdevon.bsky.social @mikeinsdevon.bsky.social · 30/06/2026

British nationalists - "UK is one nation!!!!!" Also British nationalists - ...

Map of the "British Isles" (or Anglo-Celtic Islands, Atlantic Archipelago, Britain & Ireland, "these islands" or any other preferred term). Northern England is circled in red with a label "The North".

Map from Google Maps

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mikeinsdevon.bsky.social @mikeinsdevon.bsky.social · 30/06/2026

Where did you get those seat numbers from? Election Maps custom nowcast came up with this. Lab + LD + SNP + Green = 296 (129 + 84 + 47 + 36), 30 short Reform + Tories + NI unionists + Lowe-life = 314 (198 + 107 + 8 + 1), 12 short. Would be ungovernable.

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mikeinsdevon.bsky.social @mikeinsdevon.bsky.social · 29/06/2026

Lots of talk about the poison on Musk's cesspit but it goes further than that. Why the hell is Instagram suggesting crap like this? Something tells me they're not talking about First Nations.

Instagram post from "Dominion Society of Canada" showing "demographic decline".

1981 - 93%
1991 - 86%
2001 - 83%
2011 - 76%
2021 - 69%

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mikeinsdevon.bsky.social @mikeinsdevon.bsky.social · 27/06/2026

Presumably would result in a second election

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mikeinsdevon.bsky.social @mikeinsdevon.bsky.social · 25/06/2026

Might as well just use a postcode lottery to decide the election on those numbers

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mikeinsdevon.bsky.social @mikeinsdevon.bsky.social · 17/06/2026

They did win Maldon though which is equally surprising. Other thing that stands out from today's standards is the amount of blue in/around Glasgow and Liverpool.

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mikeinsdevon.bsky.social @mikeinsdevon.bsky.social · 17/06/2026

This from Google. Maybe she said/meant 90%+?

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mikeinsdevon.bsky.social @mikeinsdevon.bsky.social · 17/06/2026

Ah, context was more stuff like this then?

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mikeinsdevon.bsky.social @mikeinsdevon.bsky.social · 12/06/2026

And still government accounts continue to post on there, let alone even consider a ban. "Nearly 4 000 calls for violence in response to Lowe, Musk and Robinson X posts about Belfast, research shows" (source: i)

There were almost 4,000 calls for violence posted on X in response to posts about the disorder in Belfast made by far right leader Tommy Robinson, Restore Britain leader Rupert Lowe and X owner Elon Musk, a monitoring group has found.

According to the Centre for Countering Digital Hate, Robinson’s supporters generated over half of that number, with 2,690 calls for violence, including a post that read: “Muslims in that house? BURN IT THE F*** DOWN. Execute them” [asterisks added].

Elon Musk, who has 240 million followers on X, shared violent migrant narratives from Robinson and Lowe, as well as others. By doing so, researchers say he amplified these messages and their analysis of viewing figures on the platform shows that Musk’s decision to share certain posts had a significant effect on how many users will have seen these inflammatory messages.

Musk’s promotion of posts from Robinson and Lowe gained the pair a further 64 million views compared to the views they generated independently.

Among Lowe’s posts shared by Musk was one vowing to “end all immigration from Somalia” and to “review all existing visas and deport all Somalians who should not be in Britain”.

This came after the Sudanese suspect alleged to be behind the attack, who was later named as Hadi Alodid, was initially misidentified as being Somali by police.

Replies from X users who saw this post included: “Make lynching great again!!!!!” and “NOW remove his head from his body”, as well as a number of calls for Alodid to be executed or hung.

The posts came after videos of a knife attack in north Belfast spread on social media late on Monday.

The victim, Stephen Ogilvie, remains in hospital with serious injuries, including the loss of one of his eyes. Alodid, who has been living in Belfast after being granted five years’ leave to remain in September 2023, has been charged with attempted murder.

Centre for Countering Digital Hate founder and CEO, Imran Ahmed, said: “As the owner of X and its most-followed user, Elon Musk has unparalleled power to shape what people see online. With that power comes responsibility for the content and conduct his platform promotes.

“Yet our research shows that he used the Belfast tragedy to amplify anti-migrant narratives to millions of users, prompting endless calls for violence. While communities dealt with the consequences of brutality and disorder, no individual played a bigger role in spreading this content on X than Musk himself.”

The research comes after Ofcom warned platforms that they are responsible for tackling illegal hate after the summer riots of 2024. Ofcom has also placed X in a compliance program to improve its handling of illegal hate.

X has brought in some new measures to curb hate speech on its platform, including demonetising fake and AI-generated hateful misinformation posts

Musk, Robinson and Lowe were approached for comment.

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mikeinsdevon.bsky.social @mikeinsdevon.bsky.social · 09/06/2026

Seat numbers according to Election Maps, though huge uncertainty. A couple points' shift either way difference between 40+ viable Green targets and just Bristol East and Sheffield Central. Reform's tipping point nearer 20%, drop much below that and their seat prospects really start collapsing.

Seat numbers for YouGov poll according to Election Maps custom nowcast. Changes from 2024 general election.

Reform - 262 (+ 257)
Labour - 117 (- 294)
Tories - 75 (- 46)
Lib Dem - 74 (+ 2)
SNP - 46 (+ 37)
Green - 26 (+ 22)
Plaid Cymru - 21 (+ 17)
others - 10 (+ 5)
Northern Ireland parties (not shown) - 18

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mikeinsdevon.bsky.social @mikeinsdevon.bsky.social · 09/06/2026

More margin of error shifts, but lowest Green figure from YouGov since January + joint lowest Lib Dem this year. Backs up all general trends - challenger parties having peaked, legacy parties bottomed out, Lib Dems flat but probably winning where they target, SNP dominate by default, Your Party DOA

YouGov poll, fieldwork June 7-8 2026.

Reform - 25% (- 2)
Conservative - 19% (+ 1)
Labour - 19% (+ 1)
Green - 14% (- 1)
Lib Dem - 12% (- 1)
SNP - 3% (no change)
Restore - 3% (no change)
Plaid Cymru - 2% (+ 1)
Your Party - 1% (+ 1)
others - 2%

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mikeinsdevon.bsky.social @mikeinsdevon.bsky.social · 23/05/2026

True, but I don't think Caerphilly does either + the poll there wasn't that close.

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