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Michael Grose

@michaelgrose.bsky.social
322 followers 120 following 42 posts

Australian climate scientist - projections, attribution, impacts, communications etc. @IPCC_CH AR6 lead author (Atlas). Views are my own

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Michael Grose @michaelgrose.bsky.social · 11/10/2025
I will be helping give a webinar on the climate and hazard work underpinning the Australian National Climate Risk Assessment (NCRA), Monday 20 Oct - please register! events.teams.microsoft.com/event/b1585f...
events.teams.microsoft.com
Microsoft Virtual Events Powered by Teams
Microsoft Virtual Events Powered by Teams
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Michael Grose @michaelgrose.bsky.social · 18/08/2025
check out our section in AR6 Ch 1 - it was clear back then and has only further confirmed since (I did the regional analysis) www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/w...
ipcc.ch
Chapter 1: Framing, Context and Methods
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Michael Grose @michaelgrose.bsky.social · 31/07/2025
I'm trying to imagine their perspective - the entire field of climate science is corrupted, deluded or groupthink. None of it can be trusted. Only these five brave heroes can do what needs to be done. So no review or comments, lots of self citation etc. is all justified. Pretty bold position really
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Michael Grose @michaelgrose.bsky.social · 31/07/2025
It was interesting to think through some interesting questions on this - what will humanity look like in 10,000 years? I make a couple of points about climate change for this interesting article in Cosmos cosmosmagazine.com/earth/climat...
cosmosmagazine.com
The stranger in the mirror: how will a hotter earth change humanity?
Climate change is the greatest challenge in human history – current trends could have us eventually approaching extremes not seen on our planet for 15 million years. Will a destabilised global climate...
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Michael Grose @michaelgrose.bsky.social · 24/06/2025
Thanks @amosupdates.bsky.social I had big shoes to fill!
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Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society (AMOS) @amosupdates.bsky.social · 24/06/2025
Dr Michael Grose gives his talk on climate update. Six supported datasets agree in global mean temperature trends
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Michael Grose @michaelgrose.bsky.social · 24/05/2025
@bobkopp.net you may be interested that we both point to your commentary paper, I'd be interested in your feedback if you have any ☺️
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Michael Grose @michaelgrose.bsky.social · 23/05/2025
Thanks for the interest Nada, the recording is now available at the original link above 😊Hope you're doing well
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Michael Grose @michaelgrose.bsky.social · 22/05/2025
thanks to all who came along, great points made by Ben Newell on our perceptions and decision-making, and some good Q&A (although I know we only scratched the surface) - over 1300 attendees(!) reflecting the always strong interest in the topic and how we respond to it
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Andrew King (he/him) @andrewkingclimate.bsky.social · 16/05/2025
Just one more week to apply for this PhD project! Details below
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Michael Grose @michaelgrose.bsky.social · 15/05/2025
Please come to this webinar next week, an important (and always hot) topic and a lot of things to talk about. I will try to be fair and balanced, but having different perspectives is really important nesp2climate.com.au/webinar-clim...
nesp2climate.com.au
Webinar: Climate tipping points — the science and risk - NESP 2 climate
Explore the science and risks of climate tipping points and what they mean for Australia when informing climate risk decision-making.
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Michael Grose @michaelgrose.bsky.social · 13/05/2025
Some comments from me included www.abc.net.au/news/2025-05...
abc.net.au
Rainfall maps offer ominous insight where Australia's climate is headed
As South Australia and Victoria continue to face drought and unseasonable heat, there has been a notable absence of major rain systems. So, what's going on?
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Michael Grose @michaelgrose.bsky.social · 25/03/2025
I had a really good conversation with the journalist on this - covering humid heat vs dry heat, the limits to adaptation and all sorts of things, he is great and this is such an important issue
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Michael Grose @michaelgrose.bsky.social · 19/03/2025
Big picture - we will stabilise the climate sooner of later, so we need to understand it - and have good definitions of 'stabilise' both globally and regionally (and appropriate alternative terms).
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Michael Grose @michaelgrose.bsky.social · 19/03/2025
Happy to be a very small contributor to this nice paper from UniMelb student Alex and supervisors @andrewkingclimate.bsky.social and @drjobrown.bsky.social well done Alex! agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/...
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com
Climate Stabilisation Under Net Zero CO2 Emissions
Temperature stabilization does not occur immediately after net zero CO2 emissions at both the global and local levels The global mean temperature stabilizes 124 years after the cessation of emiss...
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Michael Grose @michaelgrose.bsky.social · 19/03/2025
really interesting analysis of 2023 and 2024 in the new WMO SotC - worth a look!
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Acacia Pepler @acaciapepler.bsky.social · 19/03/2025
We're looking for a postdoc to help understand and define the factors that make extreme rain effects more impactful, including clustering of heavy events or coincident heavy rain with strong winds. Is this you? Apply at jobs.anu.edu.au/jobs/postdoc...
jobs.anu.edu.au
Postdoctoral/Research Fellow - Canberra / ACT, ACT, Australia
Classification: Academic Level A/BSalary package: $85,010 - $131,227 per annum plus 17% superannuationTerm: Full-time, Continuing (Contingent Funded) This position is continuing (contingent funded). T...
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Michael Grose @michaelgrose.bsky.social · 18/03/2025
...all the details and the ‘facts’ supporting this desire can all change fluidly, inconsistencies and contradictions are all totally fine. Because it is about power and not reality – in fact it is about power over reality. It is so against our training as researchers, but very real I think
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Michael Grose @michaelgrose.bsky.social · 18/03/2025
…a world where things are simple with a bad guy vs. a good guy with a simple plan, nothing is chaotic and there are no structural problems with complex causes like climate change, injustice – someone just needs to come in and make people shut up about these. If people shut up then it will be fine...
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Michael Grose @michaelgrose.bsky.social · 18/03/2025
…but if you don’t mind spoilers, the last half goes much broader than flat earth, into Qanon etc. and in the last 10 min concluding some people deeply want ‘restorative authoritarianism’ - the wish for a strong man coming to come in, put things back ‘where they belong’…
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Michael Grose @michaelgrose.bsky.social · 18/03/2025
Thinking about the state of - things - I found this useful to watch back. If you don’t want spoilers, I recommend watching the whole thing – the first half includes a really nice demo: www.youtube.com/watch?v=JTfh...
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Zack Labe @zacklabe.com · 05/03/2025
Hi - I'd like to share this story of what is happening at NOAA GFDL, where some of my colleagues and I worked until the mass firings at NOAA last week. "...the birthplace of weather and climate forecasting"
science.org
NOAA firings hit the birthplace of weather and climate forecasting
Dismissed researchers were improving severe weather predictions
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Michael Grose @michaelgrose.bsky.social · 22/01/2025
We have organised an online workshop for applications that will need to select subsets of models in CMIP7, and how it can be improved over CMIP6 - both scientific and technical aspects. Please register if you're keen!
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Michael Grose @michaelgrose.bsky.social · 22/01/2025
This was in my World Book encyclopedia (1980 edition) growing up - an interesting time capsule of where we thought things were going
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Michael Grose @michaelgrose.bsky.social · 17/01/2025
(sorry, Friday afternoon and I'm getting silly - great work on the interview, very clear and helpful!)
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Michael Grose @michaelgrose.bsky.social · 17/01/2025
It's amazing the strike all occurred in that red circle! Must be related to crop circles 😁
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Michael Grose @michaelgrose.bsky.social · 13/01/2025
(replying to all of the above) - yes, when I said 'realistic' I meant based on real glaciology, not that it would be effective or plausible! The costs/benefit does seem crazy, but I wonder if given the costs of SLR on New York, London or Amsterdam, it starts to make even the crazy maths make sense?
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Michael Grose @michaelgrose.bsky.social · 13/01/2025
Back in 2021 I was very privileged to play a small part in the 'megafires' section in the 10 new insights in climate science - it was a good choice by the editors at the time, and has only proven more relevant since 10insightsclimate.science/year-2021/3-...
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Michael Grose @michaelgrose.bsky.social · 11/01/2025
Very interesting. The speculative fiction book 'ministry for the future' by Kim Stanley Robinson includes one sub-plot about ice shelf interventions, it seemed quite realistic (it also includes an SRM storyline too). Have you read that?
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Michael Grose @michaelgrose.bsky.social · 03/01/2025
The video also points out how our reaction doesn't have to be weird eugenics, authoritarianism, Mars colonies or whatever - we can actually think about the structures and material conditions we need. I think climate change folks need to be more on top of this. Anyway, worth a watch!
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Michael Grose @michaelgrose.bsky.social · 03/01/2025
This is a good video about a topic that is too important to leave it to the podcasters and maniacs. global population growth has peaked and most places will see population declines and demographic shifts in coming decades (or already are). www.youtube.com/watch?v=J4Xh...
youtube.com
Baby Bust: Why Conservatives are Obsessed with Birth Rates Now
YouTube video by Tom Nicholas
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Michael Grose @michaelgrose.bsky.social · 18/12/2024
An Earth mission control room seems very Hollywood to me - where Earth and climate are portrayed like a NASA mission ("we've hit a critical desalinization point" - The Day After Tomorrow). But then to make the visuals look like the Facebook Metaverse makes it also look very lame 😜
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Michael Grose @michaelgrose.bsky.social · 18/12/2024
The authors on the recent commentary on the tipping point concept (including critiques, links to 1.5 deg etc.) are sharing parts of their discussions and follow ups - nice to get further insights into their discourse! This WEF video is funny for presenting a science-managed earth - but also...
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Michael Grose @michaelgrose.bsky.social · 18/12/2024
Hiya, I'm looking for papers, books, websites etc. about climate, climate change and human evolution - long-term past but also speculative stuff about the future (including far future). Any suggestions much appreciated thanks!
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Michael Grose @michaelgrose.bsky.social · 04/12/2024
A key figure from the paper - panel g) and h) are Antarctic sea ice extent
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Michael Grose @michaelgrose.bsky.social · 04/12/2024
An important message, but importantly, both A) global temperature roughly plateaus, but ALSO, B) regional climate continues to change, including sea level rise and plausibly Antarctic sea ice reduction, see study led by @andrewkingclimate.bsky.social here esd.copernicus.org/articles/15/...
esd.copernicus.org
Exploring climate stabilisation at different global warming levels in ACCESS-ESM-1.5
Abstract. Under the Paris Agreement, signatory nations aim to keep global warming well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and preferably below 1.5 °C. This implicitly requires achieving net-zero o...
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Michael Grose @michaelgrose.bsky.social · 04/12/2024
It is really interesting article, I'm going to read very thoroughly. We held a workshop on tipping elements and Aus (see below) but I think we need to think deeply on the right comms on this and other hot topics (e.g., overshoot), avoiding pitfallls etc.. theconversation.com/dangerous-cl...
theconversation.com
Dangerous climate tipping points will affect Australia. The risks are real and cannot be ignored
We don’t yet fully understand what global climate tipping points mean for Australia. But we know enough to conclude the impacts of passing one or more tipping points must now be considered.
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Michael Grose @michaelgrose.bsky.social · 03/12/2024
Thanks! I hadn't seen that, very interesting 👍
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Michael Grose @michaelgrose.bsky.social · 03/12/2024
A more extreme example 😕
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Michael Grose @michaelgrose.bsky.social · 03/12/2024
Markets need information to operate well, in a recent discussion I wondered aloud what would be the result if real estate ads were legislated to do climate disclosures - so I mocked one up.
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Michael Grose @michaelgrose.bsky.social · 01/12/2024
Before I even looked at the pic, I thought "I bet that was at Gray"!
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Michael Grose @michaelgrose.bsky.social · 28/11/2024
This seems steeped in the DICE/Nordhaus stuff - trying to use cost-benefit analysis to get an 'ideal' level of further global warming based on physical and transition risk?
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Michael Grose @michaelgrose.bsky.social · 25/11/2024
Thanks Georgy, yes overview, review and milestone papers are great (books too, including history and sociology stuff), I'll check it out 😊
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Michael Grose @michaelgrose.bsky.social · 25/11/2024
hey cool thanks Ailie 😀
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Michael Grose @michaelgrose.bsky.social · 25/11/2024
Looking for recommendations for reading on the Little Ice Age, its impacts and interactions with other historical events and changes - I'm half way through the epic Global Crisis by Geoffrey Parker, and looking for other perspectives (and possibly shorter reads, hah)
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Michael Grose @michaelgrose.bsky.social · 25/11/2024
Hi there, just joined bluesky (leaving twitter) - interested in discussions mainly about climate science topics in Australia and internationally, but also interested in various other topics too. I post things only occasionally, but I try to make them interesting 👍
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Ben Sanderson @benmsanderson.bsky.social · 24/11/2024
Great illustration. Starting the responsibility clock in 1960, the global north had burned through its fair p/c share of the 1.5C budget by about 1990. Now we're nearly 3x. What about China? Don't underestimate how many people live in China. Still under fair share.
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