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Mike Spagat

@michael-spagat.bsky.social
1.1K followers 632 following 216 posts

Economist who studies war. Chair of Every Casualty Counts and former Chair of Action on Armed Violence. Obsessed with measurement.

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Reposted by Mike Spagat
Wesley Morgan @wesleymorgan.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
There are a few stories that I used to make a point of re-reading on 9/11 and am returning to this year—the New Yorker articles about Rick Rescorla and John O’Neill, the Falling Man article in Esquire, and this WaPo story about Heather Penney, the F-16 pilot who very nearly had to ram Flight 93.
washingtonpost.com
F-16 pilot was ready to give her life on Sept. 11
A pilot reflects on one of the lesser-told tales of Sept. 11: how the first counterpunch the U.S. military prepared to throw at the attackers was effectively a suicide mission.
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Mike Spagat @michael-spagat.bsky.social · 05/07/2026
Every Casualty Counts is hiring! @everycasualty.bsky.social everycasualty.org/we-are-hiring/
everycasualty.org
we are hiring - Every Casualty Counts
We are excited to announce two vacancies on the ECC team: Executive Director and Advocacy Director.
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Mike Spagat @michael-spagat.bsky.social · 09/04/2026
@everycasualty.bsky.social
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Mike Spagat @michael-spagat.bsky.social · 09/04/2026
7/7 Like a fingerprint at a crime scene, this is evidence, not a verdict. It does not establish genocidal intent on its own. But it places Gaza in uncomfortable demographic company and substantially narrows the range of plausible innocent explanations.
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Mike Spagat @michael-spagat.bsky.social · 09/04/2026
6/7 A common objection is that Gaza's somewhat elevated proportion of young adult male deaths proves the IDF was targeting combatants. But that male excess is modest compared to conflicts within the Combatant-skewed and Male-targeted clusters.
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Mike Spagat @michael-spagat.bsky.social · 09/04/2026
5/7 Gaza post-October 7 falls within the Indiscriminate cluster — alongside Rwanda, Cambodia and the El Mozote Massacre from the civil war in El Salvador. This holds across two separate analyses, including one that accounts for Gaza's young population structure.
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Mike Spagat @michael-spagat.bsky.social · 09/04/2026
4/7 🔴 Indiscriminate — deaths spread across ages and sexes, with women, children and elderly present in substantial numbers. Examples: Rwanda and Cambodia.
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Mike Spagat @michael-spagat.bsky.social · 09/04/2026
3/7 🟡 Combatant-skewed — deaths concentrated among young adult males. Examples: Colombia, Northern Ireland, Peru. 🔵 Male-targeted — males across a wide age range systematically killed regardless of combatant status. Examples: Bosnia, Srebrenica, Kosovo.
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Mike Spagat @michael-spagat.bsky.social · 09/04/2026
2/7 The core idea: different types of violence leave behind distinctive patterns, not just in the total numbers killed, but in the proportions falling into detailed age/sex categories — a conflict's demographic fingerprint.
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Mike Spagat @michael-spagat.bsky.social · 09/04/2026
1/7 Yesterday I presented new research on what I'm calling the "demographic fingerprints" of armed conflict — and what they reveal about Gaza. Here is a recording of the presentation: vimeo.com/1175493576?s...
vimeo.com
Identifying Genocide by its Fingerprints
Every conflict leaves a demographic fingerprint in its casualties - who was killed, by age and sex, reflects the nature of the violence itself. Combat deaths skew young and male; some mass atrocities ...
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Mike Spagat @michael-spagat.bsky.social · 25/03/2026
everycasualty.org/webinar-08ap... @everycasualty.bsky.social @leloveluck.bsky.social
everycasualty.org
Webinar - Identifying Genocide by its Fingerprints - Every Casualty Counts
Your gift can be doubled 2-9 Dec, allowing us to expand our unique work on accurate casualty recording, to help loved ones find peace.
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Reposted by Mike Spagat
Jason "Red5" Lyall @jaylyall.bsky.social · 12/03/2026
This is a very cool article/🧵 that outlines the argument and evidence in my book, Divided Armies, about why prejudice and discrimination is bad for military effectiveness
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Mike Spagat @michael-spagat.bsky.social · 05/03/2026
6. When militaries target combatants, demographics skew heavily male because fighting forces are predominantly male. Gaza's low ratio (3.2) shows deaths are spread across the population - not concentrated among fighters. The data is inconsistent with precision targeting.
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Mike Spagat @michael-spagat.bsky.social · 05/03/2026
5. The West Bank shows sky-high ratios (41-73), exceeded only by the Srebrenica genocide (188.5). This underscores that high ratios aren't necessarily 'good' - at these levels, they show males are being specifically targeted, which can itself indicate atrocity.
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Mike Spagat @michael-spagat.bsky.social · 05/03/2026
4. Combat-focused conflicts show much higher ratios: Bosnia (25.5) Croatia (24.4) Irish Revolution (19.2) Iraq (9.5) When armies target fighters, the ratios reflect it.
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Mike Spagat @michael-spagat.bsky.social · 05/03/2026
3. The Rwandan genocide (1.07) and El Mozote massacre (0.65) - where everyone in a small area was killed - have substantially lower ratios. These represent totally indiscriminate mass killing regardless of age or sex.
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Mike Spagat @michael-spagat.bsky.social · 05/03/2026
2. Male-to-female ratios (ages 15-39) across 21 cases: Gaza: 3.2 - one of the LOWEST Median: 8.49 Gaza's closest company: Oct 7 attack (2.74), inside Israel pre-Oct 7 (3.45), Cambodia/Khmer Rouge (4.17)
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Mike Spagat @michael-spagat.bsky.social · 05/03/2026
1. IDF defenders claim Gaza's male-to-female ratio (~3.2:1 in ages 15-39) shows exceptional care in protecting civilians. I analyzed this ratio across 21 cases. The data shows the opposite: Gaza's pattern is consistent with indiscriminate killing, not precision targeting. 🧵
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Reposted by Mike Spagat
Abu Aardvark @abuaardvark.bsky.social · 30/01/2026
The think tankers/analysts/ “journalists” who spent years debunking Gaza death count should be feeling a bit shook right now, maybe a little hung out to dry, possibly taking a good long look in the mirror and hating what they see, potentially seeking new career. In reality, likely no consequences.
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Mike Spagat @michael-spagat.bsky.social · 30/01/2026
aoav.org.uk/2026/denial-...
aoav.org.uk
Denial as strategy: pro-Israel casualty denialism and the Gaza death toll - AOAV
An examination of how pro-Israel denialism systematically sought to discredit Palestinian casualty figures in Gaza, and how the reported acceptance by the Israeli military of the death toll exposes th...
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Mike Spagat @michael-spagat.bsky.social · 28/01/2026
4. Netanyahu also claimed Allied forces in WW2, Afghanistan, and Iraq had CCRs of 6:1 or 7:1. This is false and Israel's current CCR greatly exceeds all of these. The article for @aoav.bsky.social is worth a careful read. @iainoverton.bsky.social
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Mike Spagat @michael-spagat.bsky.social · 28/01/2026
3. The logic: if the IDF kills X>1 men for every woman among 55-60 year olds (virtually none of whom are combatants), the bias should be at least that high for 25 year olds. A 55-year-old looks less like a fighter than a 25-year-old. This alone roughly doubles the estimated CCR.
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Mike Spagat @michael-spagat.bsky.social · 28/01/2026
2. The key insight: some previous estimates treated all excess males in military-age ranges as combatants. But civilian men die at higher rates than women in every war. Frost uses the male:female ratio just outside combat ages as a lower bound for bias within combat ages.
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Mike Spagat @michael-spagat.bsky.social · 28/01/2026
1. New analysis by @karlfrost.bsky.social shows Israel's civilian-to-combatant ratio in Gaza is far worse than Netanyahu claims. He told the Economist it's 1.5:1. The data says otherwise—likely 5:1 to 8:1 depending on scope. @aoav.bsky.social aoav.org.uk/2026/why-isr...
aoav.org.uk
Why Israeli claims of low civilian-to-combatant harm in Gaza do not hold up - AOAV
A rigorous reassessment of casualty data shows that Israel’s campaign in Gaza has produced an exceptionally high civilian-to-combatant death ratio, far exceeding official claims and placing the confli...
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Mike Spagat @michael-spagat.bsky.social · 27/01/2026
Essential reading from Rachel Taylor, out Executive Director at @everycasualty.bsky.social everycasualty.org/holocaust-me...
everycasualty.org
Holocaust Memorial Day: Why remembering is an act of resistance - Every Casualty Counts
ECC Director shares reflections on importance of casualty recording this Holocaust Memorial Day 2026
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Mike Spagat @michael-spagat.bsky.social · 23/08/2025
Hi, how are you doing?
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Reposted by Mike Spagat
Iain Overton @iainoverton.bsky.social · 22/08/2025
The black box of combat deaths: why Israel must release its Gaza casualty data Excellent analysis for @aoav.bsky.social by @michael-spagat.bsky.social, as ever. aoav.org.uk/2025/the-bla...
aoav.org.uk
The black box of combat deaths: why Israel must release its Gaza casualty data - AOAV
Israel’s refusal to release the underlying data behind its claimed Gaza combatant deaths creates a dangerous transparency gap, Professor Mike Spagat argues, undermining efforts to establish the true h...
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Reposted by Mike Spagat
Action on Armed Violence (AOAV) @aoav.bsky.social · 20/08/2025
Technical debates over famine definitions miss the point while children in Gaza starve Powerful op-ed piece by @michael-spagat.bsky.social here for @aoav.bsky.social aoav.org.uk/2025/technic...
aoav.org.uk
Technical debates over famine definitions miss the point while children in Gaza starve - AOAV
While pro-Israel media accuse aid agencies of lowering the bar to declare famine in Gaza, the real issue is that methodological nit-picking obscures the urgent need for a ceasefire to allow proper ass...
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Reposted by Mike Spagat
Christine Binzel @christinebinzel.bsky.social · 03/08/2025
#Gaza #Genocide #Germancomplicity apnews.com/photo-essay/...
apnews.com
PHOTO ESSAY: Starvation attacks the bodies of these children in Gaza
GAZA CITY, Gaza Strip (AP) — In some tents and shelters in northern Gaza, emaciated children are held in their parents' arms. Their tiny arms and legs dangle limp.
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Mike Spagat @michael-spagat.bsky.social · 01/07/2025
www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/0...
washingtonpost.com
In Sudan, where children clung to life, doctors say USAID cuts have been fatal
The Trump administration’s cuts to USAID had an immediate and deadly impact in war-ravaged Sudan, according to civilians, doctors and aid officials.
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Mike Spagat @michael-spagat.bsky.social · 27/06/2025
www.haaretz.com/israel-news/...
haaretz.com
100,000 dead: What we know about Gaza's true death toll
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Mike Spagat @michael-spagat.bsky.social · 25/06/2025
bsky.app/profile/did:...
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Reposted by Mike Spagat
Adil Haque @adhaque.bsky.social · 24/06/2025
New paper estimates 75,200 violent deaths in Gaza from Oct 7, 2023 to Jan 5, 2025. Note potential sources of "downward bias." Estimate of nonviolent deaths is much lower than others. If correct, an amazing testament to Gaza's health workers and family support.
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Mike Spagat @michael-spagat.bsky.social · 24/06/2025
9. And here's the main table:
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Mike Spagat @michael-spagat.bsky.social · 24/06/2025
8. Here's the link to the preprint. Note that there is a long supplementary information document that's a bit hidden on the site. www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...
medrxiv.org
Violent and Nonviolent Death Tolls for the Gaza War: New Primary Evidence
High-quality war mortality estimates, such as those that were produced for Kosovo, Iraq, and Darfur (1-3) play a critical role in illuminating the human cost of war. During the tumult of war they are,...
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Mike Spagat @michael-spagat.bsky.social · 24/06/2025
7. 2. Our survey gives the first systematic insight into total mortality — violent and nonviolent — in the war. 3. As conditions deteriorate, nonviolent deaths may soon rise rapidly.
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Mike Spagat @michael-spagat.bsky.social · 24/06/2025
6. Interpretation and view toward the future: 1. The GMoH does not capture all deaths but provides an accurate demographic profile of violent deaths.
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Mike Spagat @michael-spagat.bsky.social · 24/06/2025
5. Third, we present the first-ever estimate for the number of nonviolent excess deaths: 8,540 (95% Confidence Interval 4,540-12,500). (“Excess” means above the number of deaths predicted to happen without the war).
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Mike Spagat @michael-spagat.bsky.social · 24/06/2025
4. Second, the detailed GMoH lists of October 2024 and March 2025 put the percentage of women, children (< 18) and elderly (> 64) at, respectively, 57.2% and 53.9%, compared to our central estimate of 56.2% (95% CI 50.4% to 61.9%).
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Mike Spagat @michael-spagat.bsky.social · 24/06/2025
3. First, our violent death estimate is 75,200 (95% CI 63,600 to 86,800). The comparable figure for the Gaza Ministry of Health (GMoH) is 45,650, roughly 39% below our central estimate of 75,200 and 28% below the lower bound of our 95% confidence interval of 63,600.
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Mike Spagat @michael-spagat.bsky.social · 24/06/2025
2. It is a household based survey of the Gaza Strip to measure both the violent and nonviolent death toll in the war. Field work was conducted between December 30, 2024 and January 5 2025. There are 3 main take homes.
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Mike Spagat @michael-spagat.bsky.social · 24/06/2025
1. New Paper "Violent and Nonviolent Death Tolls in the Gaza War: New Primary Evidence" by me, Jon Pedersen, Khalil Shikaki, Michael Robbins, Eran Bendavid, Håvard Hegre and Debarati Guha-Sapir
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Mike Spagat @michael-spagat.bsky.social · 21/06/2025
www.haaretz.com/middle-east-...
haaretz.com
UN warns of water shortage; Reports: Israeli forces kill 202 in Gaza in last 48 hours
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Mike Spagat @michael-spagat.bsky.social · 21/06/2025
www.haaretz.com/israel-news/...
haaretz.com
As living space in Gaza shrinks, remaining pockets endure hellish conditions
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Mike Spagat @michael-spagat.bsky.social · 08/06/2025
www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
bbc.co.uk
Israel is accused of the gravest war crimes in Gaza
Distinguished lawyers, senior humanitarians and diplomats tell Jeremy Bowen why they are increasingly concerned about the catastrophe inside Gaza.
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Mike Spagat @michael-spagat.bsky.social · 04/06/2025
www.haaretz.com/israel-news/...
haaretz.com
A grim poll shows most Jewish Israelis support expelling Gazans. It's brutal – and true
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Mike Spagat @michael-spagat.bsky.social · 28/05/2025
www.haaretz.com/israel-news/...
haaretz.com
Pandemonium at Gaza aid distribution centers is exactly what the UN warned about
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Mike Spagat @michael-spagat.bsky.social · 22/05/2025
Sounds like a great book.
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Mike Spagat @michael-spagat.bsky.social · 22/05/2025
unherd.com/2025/05/the-...
unherd.com
The brutal flaw in Israel’s starvation plan
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Mike Spagat @michael-spagat.bsky.social · 14/05/2025
www.nytimes.com/2025/05/13/w...
nytimes.com
In Private, Some Israeli Officers Admit That Gaza Is on the Brink of Starvation
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