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Copernicus ECMWF @copernicusecmwf.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

Get highlights from the August #C3S Climate Bulletin: joint warmest month ever recorded globally, joint highest average sea surface temperature (SST) over the extra-polar oceans (60°S–60°N), widespread dryness and drought in Europe, exceptionally low river flows, and more. ⬇️

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Javier Olivares @javierolivares.bsky.social · 19/08/2026

Exceptionally hot and dry conditions fuel wildfires in Europe as ocean surface temperatures reach record highs for July. @copernicusecmwf.bsky.social @ecmwf.int @eumetsat.int #ERA5 climate.copernicus.eu/exceptionall...

July 2026 saw prolonged hot and dry conditions in western Europe, marking the hottest June-July period on record for the region and favouring the spread and intensification of extreme wildfires. The month also saw the highest sea surface temperatures (SST) ever recorded for July across the extra-polar oceans, between 60°S and 60°N, partly fuelled by developing El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific, as reported in the latest Climate Bulletin by Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S).(Left) Anomalies and extremes in surface air temperature in June–July 2026. Colour categories refer to the percentiles of the temperature distributions for the 1991–2020 reference period. The “coolest” and “warmest” categories identify areas where temperatures were the lowest or highest for June–July during 1979–2026. (Right) Average June–July surface air temperature anomalies for western Europe (11°W–15°E, 37°–55°N). Anomalies are relative to the June–July average for the 1991-2020 period. Data source: ERA5. Credit: C3S/ECMWF.
“July 2026 was the third consecutive month of exceptional heat in western Europe, bringing the combined temperature for June and July to a new record for the region. Persistent high-pressure systems trapped heat over western Europe, the extreme temperatures also amplified widespread drought. As soils dry out, they lose their ability to provide natural cooling, allowing heat to build more readily. This is a clear example of how climate change is intensifying heat extremes, with heat and drought increasingly reinforcing one another."
Samantha Burgess, Strategic Lead for Climate at ECMWF
Western Europe saw the heatwave conditions observed in June persist through July. With an average surface air temperature over its land areas of 21.62°C for the combined June-July period, 2.79°C above the 1991–2020 average, this temperature surpassed the previous record by a notable margin (0.89°C).

Exceptionally dry conditions fuelled wildfires
As the intense heat in June continued through July across western Europe, much of that region and large parts of central Europe also saw the widespread dryness observed in May and June persist and intensify. Dry conditions were particularly severe in parts of Spain and Portugal (the Iberian Peninsula), France, Germany, Austria, and Hungary, with many areas experiencing record low monthly average surface soil moisture levels. Meanwhile, record low rainfall was reported by national agencies for England, Wales and parts of western Germany.(Left) Anomalies and extremes in surface soil moisture for July 2026. The “driest” and “wettest” categories identify areas where soil moisture was the lowest or highest for July during 1979–2026. The other categories describe how soil moisture compares to the July distribution during the 1991–2020 reference period. Data: ERA5-Land. (Right) Anomalies and extremes in monthly average river flow in July 2026. The “lowest” and “highest” categories identify areas where river flow was the lowest or highest for July during 1992–2026. The other categories describe how river flow compares to the July distribution during the 1992–2020 reference period. Only rivers with drainage areas greater than 1000 km2 are shown. Data source: EFAS. Credit: CEMS/C3S/ECMWF.

Across the dry areas, river flows were exceptionally low or much lower than average. The Seine, the Rhine and the Danube were particularly affected, with record or near-record low water levels impacting water supply, irrigation and energy production across France, Germany, the Netherlands, Romania, Serbia, Croatia and Hungary.
The intense dry conditions led to the widespread availability of dried biomass, fuelling wildfires. Beyond Europe, dry conditions in Canada and Siberia in July also favoured the spread and intensification of wildfires.

“Climate change is increasingly bringing the kinds of hot and dry conditions that favour large, high-intensity wildfires in southern Europe while extending the fire season northwards. Larger fires produce more smoke and inject it higher into the atmosphere, meaning it can travel further and impact air quality not only locally, but across the wider region.”
Laurence Rouil, Director of the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) at ECMWF.

Hottest July for the global ocean
July 2026 saw the highest SSTs on record for the month across the extra-polar oceans, with a monthly average SST of 20.96°C, surpassing the previous record (set in July 2023) by a margin of 0.07°C. Since 19 June, the daily SST across the extra-polar oceans has been the highest on record for each respective day of the year. The exceptional heat has been partly fuelled by developing El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific.
Daily sea surface temperature (°C) averaged over the extra–polar global ocean (60°S–60°N) for 2023 (yellow), 2024 (orange), 2025 (red) and 2026 (dark red). All other years between 1979 and 2022 are shown with grey lines. The daily average for the 1991–2020 reference period is shown with a dashed grey line. Data source: ERA5. Credit: C3S/ECMWF.

The month saw SSTs continue to reach record highs across a large swathe of the Pacific Ocean, an area where El Niño conditions are present and forecast to further strengthen in the coming months.3 This area stretched from the central equatorial Pacific to the western coast of Mexico and Central America, having expanded since June.

Meanwhile, record high SSTs were seen across European seas, particularly along the Atlantic and in the western Mediterranean. Outside Europe, the month saw record temperatures for the time of year across many other ocean regions.

Daily arctic sea ice extent close to record lows for July as seasonal decline continues

In July, the Arctic sea ice extent was 0.9 million km2 (9.6%) below average, making it the sixth lowest on record for the month. The daily sea ice extent continued its seasonal decline, remaining close to the levels seen in 2012, the year of the lowest annual minimum on record (in September). Throughout the month, the daily extent ranked between the second and eighth lowest on record, depending on the date.Daily Arctic sea ice extent from October 1978 to 2 August 2026. The year 2026 is shown with a dark blue line, 2025 with a teal line, and 2012 (year of the lowest daily sea ice extent) with a salmon line. Data source: EUMETSAT OSI SAF Sea Ice Index v3.0. Credit: C3S/ECMWF/EUMETSAT.

In the Antarctic, the monthly average sea ice extent was 1.0 million km2 (6.4%) below average, the fifth lowest on record for July. Notably, the five lowest sea ice extents for the month have all occurred in the last five years.

Read the July 2026 sea ice update in full

Every month, C3S, which is implemented by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) on behalf of the European Commission, provides an update on temperatures, hydrological variables and sea ice, highlighting recent climate conditions. The Climate Bulletins include charts and maps with the evolution of key climate variables, based mainly on the C3S reanalysis dataset ERA5.

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Mélanie Weynants @melanieweynants.bsky.social · 11/03/2026

Jahrzehnte lang erkämpfte Gesetze zum Schutz von Natur, Trinkwasser und Gesundheit werden gerade zugunsten kurzfristiger Wirtschaftsinteressen still und leise abgeschafft. Alle Menschen in Europa sind betroffen. Unterschreibe die Petition. #HandsOffNature www.nabu.de/natur-und-la...

nabu.de

Hände weg vom Naturschutz

Die EU will zentrale Naturschutzgesetze lockern. Gemeinsam können wir das verhindern. Gib jetzt deine Stimme ab – für starken Schutz von Mensch und Natur!

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Karin Mora @karinmora.bsky.social · 12/11/2025

😲 Who knew that you only have to establish your own journal to have higher profit margins than the pharma or the oil industry… 😲 With us scientists loving to work for free… Put that keyboard away. Your super-yacht is waiting. 🛥️ An insightful analysis on the Drain of Scientific Publishing 📈

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AI4PEX @ai4pex.bsky.social · 12/11/2025

📣 Exciting update — registration is OPEN for Joint Winter School “AI for Earth System, Hazards & Climate Extremes”! 📅 March 16 – 20 2026 📍 Venue, NTUA, Athens, Greece 🔗 More info and registration: buff.ly/kNH2f5B #AIWinterSchool2026 #MeDiTwin #CINEA #ClimateResearchNet #earlycareer #PhD

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AI4SoilHealth @ai4soilhealth.bsky.social · 14/10/2025

The European Parliament is set to have its final vote on the first EU-wide directive for soil monitoring, making soil monitoring policies a hot topic right now. Join this free webinar for a timely deep dive into the subject: ai4soilhealth.eu/event/buildi... @au.dk @thesoilassociation.bsky.social

ai4soilhealth.eu

Building soil monitoring into policy - AI4SoilHealth

Join the fourth session in the AI 4 Soil Health project webinar series "Envisioning the future of soil health monitoring".

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