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Other tariffs will remain as-is -- most notably those imposed on a sector-specific basis, including on steel, aluminum, copper, and cars. And the White House can, and likely will, pursue other unilateral options to impose additional tariffs. But this would be a setback.

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If SCOTUS rules against the President, the administration will have to remove the tariffs and could have to refund, to importers, everything they have paid in duties since the tariffs took effect.

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The vast majority of the tariffs we've seen the President impose so far this term are on the table here, including everything he's imposed on a country-specific basis: versus China, Mexico, Canada, the EU, Brazil, India, and 60+ other trading partners.

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🚨A big tariff update this afternoon, with the Supreme Court agreeing to hear Trump's appeal in the case over the legality of his tariffs, *and* has agreed to a motion to expedite. That means the case is set for the Court to hear oral arguments in the first week of November.

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Megan Cassella @megancnbc.bsky.social · 05/09/2025

New reporting from the White House regarding the Israeli attack on Hamas leadership in Qatar: A White House official tells me the U.S. was notified of the attack just before it happened. No further details for now, but expect we could hear more from details from the White House later today.

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With his IEEPA tariff powers in jeopardy, President Trump is now threatening to use a different trade tool, known as Section 301, to push back on the EU over its fines on Google and other U.S. tech companies. Would require an investigation, but could lead to steep new tariffs on the EU.

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Megan Cassella @megancnbc.bsky.social · 04/09/2025

Strong reporting here from ProPublica, which found that three Trump Cabinet members -- at Labor, Transportation and EPA -- call multiple homes their primary residence on mortgages. That's the same move that led Trump to fire Lisa Cook from her job at the Fed. bit.ly/466yMyI

bit.ly

Trump Is Accusing Foes With Multiple Mortgages of Fraud. Records Show 3 of His Cabinet Members Have Them.

The White House has targeted opponents, including a Fed governor, for having more than one primary residence on their loan papers. ProPublica found that, in one case, a Trump cabinet secretary got two...

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Megan Cassella @megancnbc.bsky.social · 04/09/2025

Interesting color in the administration's motion to SCOTUS to expedite the tariffs case from Treasury Sec. Bessent, who says the appeals court ruling on Friday against Trump's tariffs is already impacting trade talks: "World leaders are ... walking away from or delaying negotiations," he says.

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Megan Cassella @megancnbc.bsky.social · 04/09/2025

The Supreme Court has now officially docketed the case challenging Trump's IEEPA tariffs: bit.ly/46132uU In its motion to expedite, the Trump administration asked the Court to decide whether to take the case by Sept. 10, laying out a timeline that could lead to oral arguments by early November.

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Megan Cassella @megancnbc.bsky.social · 03/09/2025

Fed's Beige Book: "Nearly all Districts noted tariff-related price increases, with contacts from many Districts reporting that tariffs were especially impactful on the prices of inputs." bit.ly/45MUb11

federalreserve.gov

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Megan Cassella @megancnbc.bsky.social · 03/09/2025

Sen. Thom Tillis, a Senate Banking Republican, says he will not consider a replacement for Lisa Cook's seat on the Fed board unless/until a court rules her firing was legal. Suggests Pres. Trump will NOT be able to fill her seat unless that happens. From Politico: www.politico.com/live-updates...

politico.com

Tillis says he will not consider Lisa Cook Fed replacement amid legal dispute

Republicans likely need unanimous GOP support to advance picks out of the Banking panel, where they have a 13-11 majority.

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Megan Cassella @megancnbc.bsky.social · 02/09/2025

The President says his administration will be appealing the IEEPA tariffs case to the Supreme Court as soon as tomorrow, and will be asking for an expedited ruling in the case. Reminder the stay that allows the tariffs to remain in place for now is due to expire Oct. 14.

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Megan Cassella @megancnbc.bsky.social · 02/09/2025

It’s striking to me just how severe the White House says the consequences of losing the tariffs appeal would be. Trump says the U.S. would be a “Third World Nation.” Navarro called it “the end of the United States.” One court loss and they’re warning the entire economic agenda falls apart.

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Megan Cassella @megancnbc.bsky.social · 12/08/2025

I don't believe we'd heard the administration say this before. Sounds technical, but it's interesting: It means that even under a rosy scenario with China—say, the two sides strike some sort of near-term deal—the bulk of tariffs added so far this term are likely to stay in place.

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Megan Cassella @megancnbc.bsky.social · 12/08/2025

Bessent tells Fox Biz he needs "months, if not quarters, if not a year of progress" on fentanyl before he can imagine the 20% fentanyl tariffs being removed on Chinese imports. That suggests the China tariffs, currently 30% this term, are unlikely to fall below 20% anytime soon.

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Megan Cassella @megancnbc.bsky.social · 12/08/2025

Pres. Trump this morning says “trillions” of dollars are being collected in tariff revenue. The Peterson Institute’s latest estimates show just $93.9 billion has been collected through the first six months of this year.

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Megan Cassella @megancnbc.bsky.social · 11/08/2025

Just over 12 hours before the U.S.-China temporary tariff truce is set to expire, Pres. Trump says "we'll see what happens" when asked whether he plans to extend the deadline.

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Megan Cassella @megancnbc.bsky.social · 06/08/2025

A parade of CEOs at the White House today: Besides Apple’s Tim Cook, Nvidia’s Jensen Huang, Citigroup’s Jane Fraser and BofA’s Brian Moynihan have all been here as well. Fraser and Moynihan held meetings with the President about the privatization of Fannie/Freddie, I’m told.

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Megan Cassella @megancnbc.bsky.social · 06/08/2025

A White House official tells me Tim Cook will be at the White House today when he and President Trump announce that Apple will be upping its investment commitments in the U.S. by another $100 billion, as it works to bring more manufacturing and more of its supply chain to the US.

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4. I asked if the official had a message for Wall Street worried about political interference in and reliability of federal statistics. The official said they will get someone in position who is competent, can do the job and won’t embarrass themselves, as they believe the previous commissioner did.

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3. The White House believes this move is within the President’s authority, “100%.” Asked if they were prepared for a legal challenge, the official replied they were “prepared for anything.”

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2. The official conceded that yes, revisions to the data are normal. But the White House says this is about the scale in which revisions had to be made during McEntarfer’s tenure. They described today’s downward revisions as “pretty significant.”

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Just spoke with an administration official about the President’s decision to fire the BLS commissioner. Some takeaways: 1. The firing was due to what the White House sees as a “pattern of incompetence.” The possibility of firing her had been on the President’s radar for months.

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A White House official confirms to me this means all aspects of the status quo with Mexico hold, including exemptions for USMCA-compliant goods.

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While we await EOs, a reminder of what tariffs are expected to take effect at midnight, as of now: —10-20% tariffs on 7 countries with framework deals —11-50% “reciprocal” tariffs against 50+ other countries —15-20% global “baseline” tariff (for everyone else) —50% copper tariff

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I expect the list to be updated, given the threats and tariff changes the President has made in the last month (letters, framework deals) all still need to be formalized via EO. But worth noting a wave of country-specific tariffs is coming, not just for the seven that struck deals.

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We’re 16 hours now from the President’s midnight trade deadline, at which point sweeping tariffs of 11-50% are set to take effect against 50+ countries. These were announced April 2, delayed to July 9 and then Aug. 1. As currently written via EO, all take effect at 12:01am.

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And, one final point: Almost none of what the White House has been pledging to do on trade had yet been formalized via executive order -- even the bevy of things set to take effect at 12:01am on Friday. That appears to be changing! We'll see how much more we get in the next 24 hours.

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As for the consumer impact, though, the White House took steps to minimize this one. Hundreds of Brazilian imports appear to be excluded, including some consumer buys: orange juice, tires, fuel oil, LNG, etc.

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And on Brazil, this brings Trump's tariffs into new territory: He declared economic emergency to do it, saying the "politically motivated persecution" of Brazil's Bolsonaro threatens the U.S. economy and national security. We'll see if courts agree that's what IEEPA is meant for

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On copper: The tariff will impact all semi-finished products and some derivative products. Within 90 days, it might be expanded to cover more items. We saw huge moves in copper trading on this: Contracts are down ~19% to the lowest levels since May, the biggest drop since 1989

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Under de minimis, exporters could ship packages worth up to $800 to the U.S. without paying any tariffs. It helps small businesses, but it's also what helps make shopping at Shein, Temu, Quince and elsewhere so cheap. All of that will go away effective Aug. 29, per the new EO.

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The White House dropped a flood of trade news via exec order this afternoon. In three parts: —Trump revoked the "de minimis" trade loophole, which allows small packages to come in duty-free —He formalized his 50% tariffs on copper —and put 50% tariffs on Brazil Let's break it down👇

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In other words: We await lots of paperwork (likely executive orders and/or amendments) between now and Friday.

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Megan Cassella @megancnbc.bsky.social · 28/07/2025

Two weeks later, this remains true -- not only for the framework deals with Indonesia and Vietnam, but also for those with the EU, Japan and the Philippines. Also still to be finalized: All 25 or so of the new tariff rates laid out in the letters the President sent over the past month.

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Pres. Trump says today he's moving his deadline for 100% secondary tariffs targeting Russia to 10-12 days from now (up from Sept. 1). These would primarily impact China and Iran, the major buyers of Russian oil -- interesting timing to level this threat as the Stockholm talks get underway.

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Megan Cassella @megancnbc.bsky.social · 16/07/2025

Pres. Trump was asked tonight whether he ever planned to release details of the Vietnam trade framework. “I don't think it matters how much I release of the deal,” he said. “We may open it. I mean I don't know, I can't tell you, I mean is it necessary? I don't think so.”

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I'm a broken record on this, but formal paperwork is always key before tariff changes are finalized. And we are still waiting on further paperwork/confirmation for: —The framework deals with Indonesia & Vietnam —The 50% copper tariffs —The 100% secondary tariffs targeting Russia

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None of these are formal, signed "deals," but frameworks or agreements in principle. The U.K. framework has been agreed by both sides. The Vietnam and Indonesia announcements, as of now, have not.

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More Indonesia trade framework details: —0% tariffs on US exports; 19% tariffs on imports from Indonesia, per Trump (down from 32% threatened last week) —Top imports that could see impact: palm oil, electronics, footwear, tires —Awaiting formal paperwork and confirmation from Indonesia

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