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Eric Maugendre about carbon @maugendre.mas.to.ap.brid.gy · 10/10/2026

'The current fuel load in some Australian forests is not “natural”. It is a product of colonisation, which loaded Australian landscapes with fuel [because] frontier violence and massacres between the 1830s and 1860s removed [people] and disrupted a millennia-long […] [Original post on mas.to]

Cultural burning disrupted is a cause of Catastrophic wildfire loop

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Eric Maugendre about carbon @maugendre.mas.to.ap.brid.gy · 20/09/2026

… In most of Spain and France, "the soil moisture index reaches 0% in the first nine centimetres. The surface horizons are completely dried out, making germination and emergence conditions particularly unfavourable." — Dr. Serge Zaka Soil is dry, darn dry. So the few […] [Original post on mas.to]

Water availability in the soil from -3 to -9 cm as forecast for 22nd September 2026
The soil is bone dry from Tanger to Devon and Frankfurt.
(c) Agroclimat2050

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Eric Maugendre about carbon @maugendre.mas.to.ap.brid.gy · 20/09/2026

… Now is the time to seed the "winter" crops. No rain is expected. So seedlings are not often going to sprout. …

Expect no rain from Morocco to Southern England, nor in the Middle East in September 2026.
Total accumulated precipitation forecast in 20–26 September 2026
https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/medium-rain-acc?base_time=202609200600&projection=opencharts_europe&valid_time=202609260600

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Eric Maugendre about carbon @maugendre.mas.to.ap.brid.gy · 20/09/2026

Agricultural production this summer was very difficult. The next crops may not be expected in Europe. Why is that? 🧵

The seas around Europe are abnormally hot except from Galicia to Western Sahara.
Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly on 2026-09-19 12:00 UTC
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/surface/currents/overlay=sea_surface_temp_anomaly/orthographic=7.17,52.77,657

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Eric Maugendre about carbon @maugendre.mas.to.ap.brid.gy · 19/09/2026

Breathing pollution from #wildfires is worse in Indonesia than it was in Northern America around the 26th August 2026. There are more aerosols on a daily basis. The big amount of aerosols is being emitted for months.

Breathing pollution from wildfires is worse in Indonesia than in Africa.
The period is 21st August to 17th September 2026.
You can play at https://apps.atmosphere.copernicus.eu/fire-emissions-watch/?d1=2026-08-21&d2=2026-09-17&tilt=0&t=2026-09-18T00

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Eric Maugendre about carbon @maugendre.mas.to.ap.brid.gy · 19/08/2026

The mean sea level rises but it does not plunge coastal cities under water. Coastal cities flood when one event overtops the defences. The number of such submersions already is increasing according to a scientific study: Dangendorf, S., Sun, Q., Maduwantha, P. et al […] [Original post on mas.to]

Brazil-Porto-Alegre-flooded-streets in 2024

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Eric Maugendre about carbon @maugendre.mas.to.ap.brid.gy · 05/08/2026

We may tackle a problem from at least two ends: • "Zero soil artificialisation" can be applied and concrete makers train to the transformation of offices into housing; • Sale of petrol vehicles and fossil exploration can be prohibited; • Advertising for any animal […] [Original post on mas.to]

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Eric Maugendre about carbon @maugendre.mas.to.ap.brid.gy · 04/08/2026

Dr. James Hansen: "If we want the accelerated warming to slow down, we must get Earth’s energy imbalance to decrease. That means the world needs to get serious about reducing the human made climate forcing, and the world has not got very serious yet." 🧵

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Eric Maugendre about carbon @maugendre.mas.to.ap.brid.gy · 26/07/2026

Consequence paths of CO₂ emissions from land use change and fires: (Mining [not shown in chart],) climate change and forest management contribute to forest degradation and wildfires; which in turn force the greenhouse effect. #feedbacks #GreenhouseForcing #forests […] [Original post on mas.to]

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Eric Maugendre about carbon @maugendre.mas.to.ap.brid.gy · 24/07/2026

“Lifeless dwellings” are produced when global capital moved into and parked money in super-prestige residences. Urban geographer Rowland Atkinson coined the term #necrotecture. “Evidence is presented to show that much of London's new skyline is underused or lies […] [Original post on mas.to]

Ibiza, villa grandiose en surplomb de la mer Méditerranée, avec une piscine à débordement et aucun être vivant

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Eric Maugendre about carbon @maugendre.mas.to.ap.brid.gy · 16/07/2026

#Soil organic matter is discontinuous. The patchiness leaves room for water-mediated processes to occur at mineral surfaces close to organic matter, including surface charge accumulation at varying pH as well as dissolution and precipitation.

"Significance
Soils contain the largest pool of organic carbon near the surface of the Earth and represent a natural carbon sink that helps to buffer against anthropogenic carbon emissions and land-use changes. Despite this, little is known regarding the molecular-level mechanisms of soil organic carbon recalcitrance. In the present study, we explore one of the key phenomena hypothesized to explain the stability of organic carbon in soils, namely mineral-associated organic matter. Using enhanced-sampling molecular dynamics simulations, we show that soil organic matter can be stabilized through a variety of mineral–organic interactions and through the intercession of organic–organic interactions."

From Thomas R. Underwood, Ian C. Bourg, Kevin M. Rosso (2024). https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2413216121

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Eric Maugendre about carbon @maugendre.mas.to.ap.brid.gy · 29/06/2026

Climate change impacts ecosystems and makes some of them emit more carbon gas. 🧵 Here is an assessment that may add a degree Celsius ºC or about 30 ºF to IPCC projections. Sam Abernethy et al. (2026). doi.org/10.22541/essoar.15002332/v1 Here below are […] [Original post on mas.to]

"Stacked WIE-induced warming for
(a), SSP1-2.6,
(b), SSP2-4.5, and
(c), SSP4-6.0, split by permafrost (gray), wildfire (brown), freshwater (pink), and wetlands (green).
CH4 contributions are shown with cross-hatching, while CO2 contributions are shown with circular hatching. (d), Total WIE-induced warming for SSP1-2.6 (blue), SSP2-4.5 (orange), and SSP4-6.0 (red), with shading showing ±1 standard deviation, propagated from emission sensitivity uncertainty and climate response uncertainty added in quadrature. All WIE-induced warming is relative to a 2020 baseline."

excerpt from Sam Abernethy et al. (2026). https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.15002332/v1

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Eric Maugendre about carbon @maugendre.mas.to.ap.brid.gy · 21/06/2026

Study: methane gas emissions would be reduced by about 20 % in ten years if stopping bovine livestock. A climate policy could be to generalize the current practice of turning male calves into steers. Article: doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.19019693 Python notebook […] [Original post on mas.to]

Lines of moderate ascend plus a spillway curve from above 170,000 to above 120,000 Gg CH₄/year. In ten years, methane emissions from agriculture activities are cut in two if bovine stop.

Figure shows methane emissions at a slight trough in 2027. The dent in methane emissions is due to a disruption in the delivery of fossil fuels from March 2026 (itself due to the Persian Gulf production being put offline by war).

Figure also shows curves of moderate ascend, drifted from current emissions, current activities, technical promises. Each year, the CH₄ production is similar in cases "CH₄ drift", "as usual", "tech potential", "factory cap". You could say that mitigation only goes so far.

Bovine stop would be a dramatic policy. It has its contribution fall from full to null over time. The figure shows a spillway curve falling by 60 Tg CH₄/year: emissions would diverge if bovine husbandry was curtailed.

After ten years of intervention, methane emissions from all activities if bovine stop would be 80 % of methane emissions from all activities if no intervention. We can see that bovine cessation would bring a throughput abatement of almost 80 Tg/year in ten years. This amount can be represented at 20 % of all methane emissions from activities if they are forecast at 400 Tg.

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Eric Maugendre about carbon @maugendre.mas.to.ap.brid.gy · 29/05/2026

Papua tropical glaciers lost 7.28 km2 (97%) of ice cover or 0.17 km2/year between 1980 and 2024. 4 of the 6 glaciers have completely disappeared. The remaining two glaciers are currently predicted to completely disappear by 2030 […] [Original post on mas.to]

An ice sheet with crack scars in it in Papua

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Eric Maugendre about carbon @maugendre.mas.to.ap.brid.gy · 26/05/2026

"The Case for California’s Billionaire Wealth Tax", today’s NYT Op-Ed from Gabriel Zucman and Emmanuel Saez: web.archive.org/web/20260526122143/… The iceberg images […] [Original post on mas.to]

increase in wealth 2019-2025 - 78% of Marck Zuckerberg's, Larry Page's, Sergey Brin's, Jense Huang's wealth accumulation is underwater.

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Eric Maugendre about carbon @maugendre.mas.to.ap.brid.gy · 26/05/2026

"If you’re broke or close to it, the first $100,000 of wealth has incredible utility. If you’ve already got $10M, you may barely notice another $100K." A ranking of countries by average personal wealth utility […] [Original post on mas.to]

Countries ranked by equality-adjusted personal wealth
The first 8 are: Norway, NL, Taiwan, Canada, Belgium, Switzerland, Australia, Denmark

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Eric Maugendre about carbon @maugendre.mas.to.ap.brid.gy · 21/04/2026

There currently is no ‘Return to coal’ but stable purchases. Globally, the traders and plant operators are buying as much coal since the USA and Israel attacked Iran. #coal #GHG #CO2 #carbon #economy #industry #energy #emissions

Global seaborn coal departures.
Data includes in-country shipments which are big in China and Indonesia.
Chart is from https://energyandcleanair.org/fossil-power-fell-in-march-after-hormuz-blockade/

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Eric Maugendre about carbon @maugendre.mas.to.ap.brid.gy · 19/04/2026

20% of methane emissions would be avoided if we stopped raising cattle. Preprint uses causal inference to demonstrate the impact of such a public policy: doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.19019693 It notably cites works by @vincentab, Susanne Dandl, @topepo, Kjell Johnson, Judea Pearl and others

directed acyclic graph of CH₄ from agriculture:
➞ buffaloes ➞ CH₄ ⬅ cattle ⬅

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Eric Maugendre about carbon @maugendre.mas.to.ap.brid.gy · 19/04/2026

New study uses causal inference to demonstrate that we would avoid 20 % methane emissions if one commodity was replaced. I have just published a preprint article at doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.19019693 #decoupling #agriculture #beef #cattle #carbon #causality […] [Original post on mas.to]

Greenhouse gas emissions go down 20 % in ten years as cattle stop reproduction

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Eric Maugendre about carbon @maugendre.mas.to.ap.brid.gy · 19/04/2026

New study uses causal analysis to demonstrate big reductions in carbon emissions if fewer bovines. In ten years, methane emissions from all activities if bovine stop would be 80 % of methane emissions from all activities if no intervention. Results and causation are […] [Original post on mas.to]

Straight lines of moderate ascend plus a spillway curve from about 160,000 to 100,000 Gg CH₄/year. In ten years, methane emissions from activities if bovine stop would be 80 % of methane emissions from activities if no intervention.

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Eric Maugendre about carbon @maugendre.mas.to.ap.brid.gy · 04/04/2026

"Making people aware of intergenerational climate justice increases individuals’ willingness to accept near-term economic sacrifices." Study confirms that public awareness campaigns and educational programs have more effect on the individual consumption of the rich. […] [Original post on mas.to]

"CATE plot – interaction between income (quadratic) and treatment."
"The effect of the experimental treatment on willingness to reduce consumption is conditional on income. However, that conditionality is non-linear. The effect of the treatment becomes more intense as income increases, achieving a level of statistical significance at higher levels of income."
From https://doi.org/10.1080/09644016.2026.2633837

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Eric Maugendre about carbon @maugendre.mas.to.ap.brid.gy · 10/02/2026

Countries publish data on activities & #carbon emissions. So it's convenient to cluster them to demonstrate relationships. Today i found that countries from Argentina to Australia via ZA emit methane in the same proportion: from cattle then sheep. (This does not say anything about their #climate.)

A truncated map from Argentina to Australia via ZA.
(Colours are from the Köppen-Geiger classification.)

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Eric Maugendre about carbon @maugendre.mas.to.ap.brid.gy · 20/11/2025

Hi @sarahtaber Who would know about livestock digestion? I am gathering records to "account for" methane emissions from #livestock. Explanatory variables can be: * Animal headcount: high correlation * Energy: good correlation if lagged by one year * GDP: only […] [Original post on mas.to]

Greenhouse gas emissions vary with the right-hand side activities:
region_name
Oceania [Bovines, Chickens broilers+layers]
Indonesia + [Bovines, Goats]
Southeastern Asia [Bovines, Goats]
India + [Bovines, Goats]
Middle_East [Bovines, Chickens layers, Sheep]
Northern_Africa [Bovines, country code]
Eastern_Africa [Bovines, Goats, Sheep]
Western_Africa [Bovines, Camels, Goats, Sheep]
Southern_Africa [Bovines, Sheep]
Rest South America [Bovines, Goats]
Brazil [Bovines, Gas y-1]
Rest Central America [Bovines]
Mexico [GDP, Bovines, Chickens broilers]
Japan [Bovines]
Korea [Bovines, Chickens broilers]
China + [Bovines, Goats]
Asia-Stan [Bovines, Chickens layers]
Russia + [Bovines, Camels, Chickens...
Turkey [Bovines, Chickens layers, Sheep]
etc.

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