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Mattia Nelles

@mattian.bsky.social
4.4K followers 205 following 682 posts

Politologe & Ukraine-Watcher. CEO & Co-Founder of the German-Ukrainian Bureau (Deutsch-Ukrainisches Büro (DUB)) gGmbH). Working on and in 🇺🇦 since 2014.

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Mattia Nelles @mattian.bsky.social · 16/01/2026
Happy to join this discussion on how Russia’s war on Ukraine might change in 2026. Tune in at 14:00 CET. Other speakers include: Isaac Flanagan, Natliya Gumenyuk, Amb. William Taylor, moderated by @shelbyjmag.bsky.social Come and listen in 👇 www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/how-mi...
atlanticcouncil.org
How might Russia's war on Ukraine change in 2026?
Get up to speed on the most recent developments in Russia’s war against Ukraine.
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Mattia Nelles @mattian.bsky.social · 01/01/2026
Die Ukraine braucht unsere Unterstützung heute mehr denn je. Zum neuen Jahr deswegen bitte für diese lebenswichtigen gepanzerten Evakuierungsfahrzeuge spenden. Tolle gemeinsame Aktion der Deutsch-Ukrainische Gesellschaft und @bravery-ev.bsky.social 💛💙 bravery.berlin/waswirtun/ev...
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Mattia Nelles @mattian.bsky.social · 23/11/2025
Jetzt geht es los bei uns, der Deutsch-Ukrainischen Gesellschaft (DUG) - Für unsere und eure Freiheit e.V., mit der Mitgliedsversammlung 2025. Die DUG ist mit weit mehr als 500 Mitgliedern ein Zuhause für Freund:innen der 🇺🇦 Mitglied werden 👇 deutsch-ukrainische-gesellschaft.de/become-a-mem...
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Mattia Nelles @mattian.bsky.social · 08/10/2025
Die Ukraine steht vor einer Weichenstellung: Entweder sie stärkt ihre "Inseln der Integrität" und baut diese aus – oder sie riskiert, dass diese durch tausend Nadelstiche zugrunde gehen. Den vollständigen Artikel gibt es hier: zeitschrift-osteuropa.de/blog/tod-du... /end
zeitschrift-osteuropa.de
Tod durch tausend Nadelstiche | Zeitschrift OSTEUROPA
OSTEUROPA ist mehr als eine Zeitschrift. Wir analysieren Politik und Kultur, Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft im Osten Europas als Teil der globalisierten Welt. Monat für Monat, seit 1925.
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Mattia Nelles @mattian.bsky.social · 08/10/2025
Internationale Partner und alle Unterstützer der Ukraine müssen wachsam bleiben und Versuche, die unabhängigen Behörden, Zivilgesellschaft und Medien zu schwächen, sofort erkennen und gegensteuern. Wegschauen oder Schönreden ist keine Option! /8
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Mattia Nelles @mattian.bsky.social · 08/10/2025
Der Krieg darf KEINE Ausrede sein, Korruptionsbekämpfung zu vernachlässigen. Im Gegenteil – gerade jetzt braucht die Ukraine starke, unabhängige Institutionen. Druck gegen kritische Zivilgesellschaft, Medien und die Behörden selbst ist kontraproduktiv und risiert den EU-Beitritt. /7
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Mattia Nelles @mattian.bsky.social · 08/10/2025
Konsequente Korruptionsbekämpfung ist zentrale EU-Beitrittsbedingung. Die Angriffe auf NABU und SAPO gefährden: ❌ Das EU-Beitrittsziel ❌ Die westliche Finanzierung (65 Mrd. USD bis 2029) /6
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Mattia Nelles @mattian.bsky.social · 08/10/2025
Fortschritt ist real, aber fragil: 📊 Korruptionsindex: Von Platz 144 (2013) auf Platz 105 (2024) Niemand steht mehr über dem Gesetz! Diese Erfolge sind das Ergebnis unabhängiger Institutionen und umfassender Reformen. /5
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Mattia Nelles @mattian.bsky.social · 08/10/2025
NABU und SAPO ermitteln gegen: → 31 Parlamentsabgeordnete → Den ehemaligen Zentralbankchef → Hochrangige Richter → Enge Vertraute des Präsidenten Gerade diese Erfolge machen die Behörden zur Zielscheibe. /4
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Mattia Nelles @mattian.bsky.social · 08/10/2025
Nach dem gescheiterten Frontalangriff folgen subtilere Methoden: SBU verhaftet NABU-Ermittler unter fragwürdigen Anschuldigungen Generalstaatsanwaltschaft baut Drohkulissen auf. Anonyme Telegram-Kanäle verbreiten Desinformation. Problematische Gesetzesentwürfe im Parlament. /3
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Mattia Nelles @mattian.bsky.social · 08/10/2025
Im Juli 2025 versuchte die ukrainische Staatsführung, NABU und SAPO per Blitzgesetz der Generalstaatsanwaltschaft zu unterstellen – ihre Unabhängigkeit zu zerstören. Nur Straßenproteste und massiver internationaler Druck zwangen Zelenskyj zur Rücknahme binnen 48 Stunden. /2
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Mattia Nelles @mattian.bsky.social · 08/10/2025
🧵 In der Zeitschrift OSTEUROPA habe ich eine Analyse über die jüngsten Angriffe auf die 🇺🇦 Antikorruptionsbehörden NABU und SAPO veröffentlicht. Die Ereignisse in Kürze: Die Behörden und die kritische Zivilgesellschaft (wie @AntAC_ua) stehen bis heute unter massivem Druck. /1
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Mattia Nelles @mattian.bsky.social · 06/10/2025
From societal resilience and digital governance to defence innovation — Europe has much to learn from Ukraine. It’s time to see Ukraine not only as a partner in need, but as a partner in European security. 6/6
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Mattia Nelles @mattian.bsky.social · 06/10/2025
Just two examples from the last days: When Russian drones approached Poland, 🇺🇦 warned NATO partners in real time before they had seen the threat. When drones disrupted Danish airspace, 🇺🇦 offered help and sent instructors to Denmark. 5/6
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Mattia Nelles @mattian.bsky.social · 06/10/2025
Moscow has used this playbook for decades: first at home, then across its neighbours — from Estonia and Belarus to, most visibly, Ukraine. These countries, especially Ukraine, have the deepest experience in countering Russian influence — and in Ukraine’s case, open warfare. 4/6
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Mattia Nelles @mattian.bsky.social · 06/10/2025
One of RU main goals is to weaken the West — to erode our social cohesion, resilience, and support for Ukraine. RU uses a variety of measures ranging from arson, sabotage, assassinations, cyber-attacks, disinformation campaigns, espionage and drone military overflights. 3/6
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Mattia Nelles @mattian.bsky.social · 06/10/2025
My key message was: 🇺🇦 From “Help Ukraine” to “Let Ukraine Help Us.” Europe’s perspective must change. Ukraine is no longer just a recipient of aid — it is becoming a security provider for Europe. 2/6
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Mattia Nelles @mattian.bsky.social · 06/10/2025
Last week I joined Al Jazeera English’s Inside Story to discuss Russia’s hybrid war against Europe — and how far Europe and Ukraine are from a genuine diplomatic solution to Russia’s war of aggression. 🎥 www.aljazeera.com/video/insid... 1/6
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Mattia Nelles @mattian.bsky.social · 12/09/2025
I summarized some key takeaways on LinkedIn 👇 www.linkedin.com/posts/matti...
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Mattia Nelles @mattian.bsky.social · 12/09/2025
My presentation ‘Ukraine’s Path to the EU: straight ahead or a winding one’ was fun but the best part were the sophisticated and smart questions that show me a new generation is here, hungry to take over responsibility and have an impact. /2
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Mattia Nelles @mattian.bsky.social · 12/09/2025
Europa-Universität Viadrina Frankfurt (Oder) it was a pleasure 🫶 I sincerely enjoyed contributing to the KIU - Competence Network Interdisciplinary Ukrainian Studies summer school ‘Ukraine in Europe- controversies, complexities and agency of a multifaceted interconnection’. /1
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Mattia Nelles @mattian.bsky.social · 07/09/2025
Guten Morgen aus dem Rheinland und der alten Hauptstadt Bonn. Heute bin ich beim Zukunftsforum in Bonn zum Thema: Demokratie in Gefahr: Wie wird Deutschland zukunftsfähig? Ich spreche heute um 15:00 Uhr zu Lehren aus der Ukraine bei Bedeutung von Identität und Staatsempfinden.
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Mattia Nelles @mattian.bsky.social · 07/09/2025
Last night, Russia launched a sad record of (previous record 741, 9 July 2025) 805 strike drones and 13 missiles at targets across Ukraine. The 🇺🇦 air defense neutralized 751 targets out of 818 incoming targets. Hits of 9 missiles and 56 strike drones at 37 locations were recorded.
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Mattia Nelles @mattian.bsky.social · 06/09/2025
Gleich spreche ich bei der Kundgebung in Erinnerung an die Opfer der russischer Luftangriffe in Düsseldorf 👇
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Mattia Nelles @mattian.bsky.social · 29/08/2025
More reflections on the visit on LinkedIn 👇 t.co/f4OqTNJR6L
t.co
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/mattianelles_some-of-the-most-important-ukrainian-civil-activity-7367241162119720961-hnD5?utm_medium=ios_app&rcm=ACoAAAu5xwABf_uteurINSdrEo0TE_itcviiryE&utm_source=socia...
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Mattia Nelles @mattian.bsky.social · 29/08/2025
Ukraine’s accession to the EU hinges on a variety of factors. The fight against corruption is one of the most important. That’s why we as the German-Ukrainian Bureau were happy to have helped the leaders of the NABU & SAPO with their program in Berlin briefing key stakeholders. /1
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Mattia Nelles @mattian.bsky.social · 27/08/2025
Source: media.rtl.com/meldung/RTL...
media.rtl.com
RTL/ntv Trendbarometer
<p>Im aktuellen RTL/ntv Trendbarometer zeigt sich die deutsche Bevölkerung weiterhin mehrheitlich kompromissbereit in Bezug auf den Ukraine-Konflikt: 53 Prozent der Bundesbürger sind der Meinung, die Ukraine müsse – um ein Friedensabkommen zu ermöglichen – notfalls auch bereit sein, besetzte Gebiete an Russland abzutreten. Damit bleibt die Einschätzung gegenüber dem Frühjahr 2025 (54 %) praktisch unverändert. 39 Prozent sprechen sich gegen einen solchen Gebietsverzicht aus.</p>
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Mattia Nelles @mattian.bsky.social · 27/08/2025
Cross-party doubt on Trump: Even CDU/CSU voters (79%) join SPD (89%) and Green supporters (89%) in questioning Trump's influence with Putin. Only AfD supporters show relative confidence (35%) in Trump's diplomatic abilities. Poll: 1,001 Germans, Aug 8-11, 2025
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Mattia Nelles @mattian.bsky.social · 27/08/2025
Germans deeply sceptical of Trump's peace promises: 73% don't believe the former US president can convince Putin to agree to a nationwide ceasefire. Only 20% think Trump could achieve this breakthrough. 3/4:
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Mattia Nelles @mattian.bsky.social · 27/08/2025
Party lines matter: Strong opposition to territorial concessions among Green voters (66%) and Left party supporters (51%). Meanwhile, AfD voters overwhelmingly support 'land-for-peace' (86%), with significant backing from CDU/CSU (42%) and SPD voters (47%). 2/4:
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Mattia Nelles @mattian.bsky.social · 27/08/2025
🧵 New RTL/ntv poll reveals German public opinion on Ukraine conflict: 53% of Germans believe Ukraine should be willing to cede occupied territories to Russia for a peace deal - virtually unchanged from spring 2025 (54%). 39% oppose territorial concessions. 1/4
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Mattia Nelles @mattian.bsky.social · 26/08/2025
In recent weeks, Ukraine stepped up attacks against Russian oil processing and exports, creating a gasoline shortage in parts of Russia. Attacks on 10 plants disrupted at least 17% of RU's refinery capacity, or 1.1 million barrels per day, according to Reuters. www.reuters.com/business/ene...
reuters.com
Russian oil refineries, terminals burn as Ukraine hits Putin's war economy
The attacks disrupted Moscow's oil processing and exports, and created gasoline shortages in some parts of Russia.
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Mattia Nelles @mattian.bsky.social · 21/08/2025
Putin’s motivation is simple, even if Witkoff and Trump do not really understand it: He seeks to dominate Ukraine, seize what pieces of it he can, and eradicate its democratic government and national independence, Eliot Cohen writes. www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archiv...
theatlantic.com
What Trump Actually Wants From a Ukraine Deal
The president has one goal clearly in mind—and his fixation may benefit Kyiv.
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Mattia Nelles @mattian.bsky.social · 21/08/2025
No concessions WHATSOEVER: Putin is demanding that Ukraine give up all of the Donbas, renounce ambitions to join NATO, remain neutral and keep Western troops out of the country, three sources familiar with top-level Kremlin thinking told Reuters. www.reuters.com/world/china/...
reuters.com
Exclusive: Putin's demand to Ukraine: give up Donbas, no NATO and no Western troops, sources say
Vladimir Putin is demanding that Ukraine give up all of the eastern Donbas region, renounce ambitions to join NATO, remain neutral and keep Western troops out of the country, three sources familiar with top-level Kremlin thinking told Reuters.
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Mattia Nelles @mattian.bsky.social · 21/08/2025
Another night of RU terror. A total of 614 drones and missiles were launched against targets across Ukraine. Of the 574 drones and simulators and 40 missiles a total of 577 were intercepted. Hits are reported in 11 different locations with multiple casualties.
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Mattia Nelles @mattian.bsky.social · 19/08/2025
Interesting article on the importance of the Kramatorsk/Slovyansk fortress belt, the loss of which as a result of a deal with Mr Putin is unthinkable for most Ukrainians. Controlling it would open RU a viable path to Central Ukraine, Dnipro & Kharkiv... www.economist.com/europe/2025/...
economist.com
Putin’s “land swap” is really a grab for Ukraine’s fortress belt
He wants Trump to secure for him what Russia’s army cannot
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Mattia Nelles @mattian.bsky.social · 19/08/2025
PPS: From the outside and based on the rather flimsy evidence presented by the SBU and prosecution, the serious treason charges seem unlikely to hold in court. Allegations of treason are a sharp judicial sword in the middle of the war. It‘s application has to scrutinized closely!
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Mattia Nelles @mattian.bsky.social · 19/08/2025
PS: The independence of the anti-corruption institutions was restored, but arrests and investigations against NABU detectives, like Mahamedrasulov, have shaken them. The ability to prosecute top-level officials remains a key indicator and so does the case against the detectives.
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Mattia Nelles @mattian.bsky.social · 19/08/2025
12/12 ⚖️ BOTTOM LINE: A decorated war veteran and veteran anti-corruption detective says he’s being persecuted for doing his job too well. His case sparked the July protests that restored NABU independence - but he remains behind bars.
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Mattia Nelles @mattian.bsky.social · 19/08/2025
11/12 🔒 ISOLATION TACTICS: Held in special small single cell with multiple locks, searched multiple times daily, denied family visits. “This environment and attitude is an attempt at pressure.” Hasn’t been questioned once since arrest.
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Mattia Nelles @mattian.bsky.social · 19/08/2025
10/12 🎯 POLITICAL RETALIATION: “I’m convinced this case is political and demonstrative. It’s a threat addressed to everyone who has the courage to investigate top-level corruption in Ukraine.”
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Mattia Nelles @mattian.bsky.social · 19/08/2025
9/12 📄 “RIDICULOUS” CHARGES: He calls the espionage allegations “smішна” (ridiculous), saying the 8-page suspicion contains only 3 short paragraphs of “abstract and fabricated accusations” with zero evidence.
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Mattia Nelles @mattian.bsky.social · 19/08/2025
8/12 🏥 MEDICAL NEGLECT: Mahamedrasulov recently had two complex brain surgeries and was still in rehabilitation. SBU knew this but used force anyway. He was even surveilled while receiving medical treatment in Spain.
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Mattia Nelles @mattian.bsky.social · 19/08/2025
7/12 🤐 REFUSES TO NAME NAMES: Despite pressure, he won’t reveal contacts or ongoing investigations, saying it would violate law and professional ethics. “Some people who helped us may even face danger.”
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Mattia Nelles @mattian.bsky.social · 19/08/2025
6/12 📱 INTELLIGENCE GOLDMINE: The SBU seized all his work devices, gaining access to ongoing NABU operations, sources, and sensitive investigations. Mahamedrasulov fears this could endanger people who helped expose corruption.
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Mattia Nelles @mattian.bsky.social · 19/08/2025
5/12 🏠 VIOLENT ARREST: SBU agents stormed his fiancée’s home without court warrant, immediately threw him to the ground, beat him despite no resistance, and couldn’t explain what they were looking for. “They seemed to not know the case they came for.”
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Mattia Nelles @mattian.bsky.social · 19/08/2025
4/12 ⚔️ WAR HERO: During the 2022 invasion, Mahamedrasulov left NABU to defend Kyiv, serving in tactical-operational groups. He has commendations from military intelligence (GUR), SBU, and Defense Ministry for his wartime service.
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Mattia Nelles @mattian.bsky.social · 19/08/2025
3/12 🔍 The detective was investigating DOZENS of cases when arrested on July 21, including major corruption schemes involving state companies, grain procurement fraud (157M hryvnias), and judicial bribery ($1M case with Lviv judges).
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Mattia Nelles @mattian.bsky.social · 19/08/2025
2/12 💼 Mahamedrasulov built a network of “hundreds of contacts” including high-ranking politicians and businessmen as part of his operational work. He says 99% of these contacts were for legitimate investigations, not personal gain.
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Mattia Nelles @mattian.bsky.social · 19/08/2025
1/12 🚨: Detained NABU detective Ruslan Mahamedrasulov breaks his silence from prison, revealing shocking details about Ukraine’s anti-corruption crackdown that led to nationwide protests in July 2025.
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