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Matthew Ahn @matthewahn.bsky.social · 06/05/2026

Of course, as I say this, a new dump is in. I am officially calling the County Council 11th District for Christine McIntosh.

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Matthew Ahn @matthewahn.bsky.social · 06/05/2026

I just fell asleep waiting for the next dump, so honestly, I will probably wrap this up in the morning. Tune back in then for my final thoughts!

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Matthew Ahn @matthewahn.bsky.social · 06/05/2026

Plugging in a reasonable undervote number on the Senate race of ~7,000, that extrapolates, with the remaining precincts, to roughly a 15.1% turnout rate for the primary. Too low in a town where the primary often decides everything, but comparable to that 2018 wave.

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Matthew Ahn @matthewahn.bsky.social · 06/05/2026

The live results do not give us undervote numbers, so we cannot compare apples to apples right now. However, if we assume that nobody undervoted the Senate primary (virtually impossible), Dem ballots cast represent 10.56% of all registered voters...with 350+ precincts left to report.

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Matthew Ahn @matthewahn.bsky.social · 06/05/2026

While we're waiting for the next dump, let's look at turnout. In May 2018, Democratic ballots cast represented 15.30% of all registered voters in Cuyahoga County. In May 2022, Democratic ballots cast represented only 10.96% of all registered voters.

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Matthew Ahn @matthewahn.bsky.social · 06/05/2026

It looks like Marty Sweeney will likely stay just above 50 percent, but *just* barely. Thomas and Mayo at 30 and 20 percent respectively are solid showings.

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Matthew Ahn @matthewahn.bsky.social · 06/05/2026

Same for William Vodrey, who will likely finish right around 62 percent of the vote (the same as the last endorsed candidate to go up against a Ballot Name(TM)).

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Matthew Ahn @matthewahn.bsky.social · 06/05/2026

Same for Eugene Miller, who will likely finish shy of 50 percent but well clear of anyone else.

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Matthew Ahn @matthewahn.bsky.social · 06/05/2026

Nicole Sigurdson's margin looked precarious for a second, but she has maintained about an 1100-vote lead on Dionna Gore. I should have stuck with my guns and not regretted calling this race early.

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Matthew Ahn @matthewahn.bsky.social · 06/05/2026

Big dump. Cuyahoga County is now over 60 percent reported.

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Matthew Ahn @matthewahn.bsky.social · 06/05/2026

McIntosh has widened her lead slightly in County Council District 11. I'm still not ready to call the race.

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Matthew Ahn @matthewahn.bsky.social · 06/05/2026

Please note that with more than half of the election day vote in, he is in no danger of losing at this point.

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Matthew Ahn @matthewahn.bsky.social · 06/05/2026

I am watching whether Marty Sweeney is able to stay above 50 percent in his race. He had 63% of the early and mail vote, but he's dropped to 54% with the first large dump in his district.

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Matthew Ahn @matthewahn.bsky.social · 06/05/2026

Gallagher is doing much better compared to Vodrey in the election day vote, but Vodrey continues to build his numerical vote advantage. I do not regret calling this one early.

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Matthew Ahn @matthewahn.bsky.social · 06/05/2026

First major vote drop in the District 20 state house race. Eugene Miller seems to be considerably less strong in the election day vote, but because Charlotte Perkins and Lauren Welch are splitting the rest evenly, he is likely to win. Trends point to Welch moving comfortably into second.

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Matthew Ahn @matthewahn.bsky.social · 06/05/2026

Another huge vote drop for Poindexter. He's now up 15 points across the district. Notably, Laura Rodriguez-Carbone has moved into third.

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Matthew Ahn @matthewahn.bsky.social · 06/05/2026

BIG NEWS: Rocky River 4-A's central committee race looks like it's going to result in elected prosecutor Michael O'Malley losing in his own precinct. Notably, O'Malley won his own precinct 64-27 two years ago in the prosecutor's race.

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Matthew Ahn @matthewahn.bsky.social · 06/05/2026

Further down, it looks like now only 3 of the 33 prosecutors/allied candidates for central committee are in line to win. In fact:

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Matthew Ahn @matthewahn.bsky.social · 06/05/2026

Votes in from Bedford, Brecksville, Brook Park, Cleveland Ward 8, North Royalton, Richmond Heights, and Warrensville Heights. To me, with Highland Heights and Richmond Heights already in, I believe that Ebony Spano's path to winning the District 11 race is nonexistent.

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Matthew Ahn @matthewahn.bsky.social · 06/05/2026

The first election day returns in County Council 11 have all three candidates splitting the vote nearly evenly, leaving the same numerical margins in place. Christine McIntosh is still likely to win, but I am curious where those evenly split votes are from. I'll look shortly.

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Matthew Ahn @matthewahn.bsky.social · 06/05/2026

Brian Poindexter pulls into the lead in the Cuyahoga portion of OH-07. A stunning 3155 votes to Ed FitzGerald's 1136. I might be going a tad early here, but I am CALLING that Brian Poindexter has won the Democratic nomination in the 7th District.

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Matthew Ahn @matthewahn.bsky.social · 06/05/2026

Elliot Forhan has conceded to John Kulewicz, by the way.

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Matthew Ahn @matthewahn.bsky.social · 06/05/2026

...and many of these are lighter-blue suburbs. Big vote sinks, including Cleveland, Cleveland Heights, Lakewood, Parma, and Shaker Heights are still outstanding.

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Matthew Ahn @matthewahn.bsky.social · 06/05/2026

So where was this first Cuyahoga dump? In short: a lot of the suburbs. Broadview Heights, Garfield Heights, Highland Heights, Olmsted Falls, Parma Heights, Rocky River, Westlake...

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Matthew Ahn @matthewahn.bsky.social · 06/05/2026

Notice that I have not called HD20, where Eugene Miller is leading, nor have I called County Council District 11, where Christine McIntosh is leading. Neither is yet in a comfortable position with their first election day returns in.

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Matthew Ahn @matthewahn.bsky.social · 06/05/2026

Sweeney also increases his lead, and I'll call this one too. Marty Sweeney has won re-election to his county council seat.

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Matthew Ahn @matthewahn.bsky.social · 06/05/2026

Russell and Sigurdson increase their leads too. Davida Russell and Nicole Sigurdson have won their primaries and will advance to the general election for their state legislative races.

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Matthew Ahn @matthewahn.bsky.social · 06/05/2026

First dump in. Vodrey increases his numerical lead, even if not his percentage lead. I am calling it: William Vodrey has won his primary to return to the Court of Common Pleas.

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Matthew Ahn @matthewahn.bsky.social · 06/05/2026

In unrelated news, while we wait for in-person returns, James Harden keeps turning the ball over in increasingly stupid ways.

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Matthew Ahn @matthewahn.bsky.social · 06/05/2026

It looks like with non-Cuyahoga votes included, Brian Poindexter is leading the early/mail vote. Eisner is further behind, confirming my priors of this as a two-way race.

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Matthew Ahn @matthewahn.bsky.social · 06/05/2026

The smaller the race, though, the larger the error bars: that is, a larger shift is possible the smaller the race is. This is one of the reasons why I do want to see at least one Election Day dump in almost every race I'm covering before calling them, even if one candidate is up 40-50.

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Matthew Ahn @matthewahn.bsky.social · 06/05/2026

Someone asked me how much stock they should put in early/mail numbers. Here's what I'll say: With a strong Election Day operation, you could see the margins in early vote change up to 20-30 points before the night is over. In a primary, however, a larger shift than that is probably unlikely.

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Matthew Ahn @matthewahn.bsky.social · 06/05/2026

Of the 33 contested central committee races involving prosecutors and allies, I currently count six of them that are leading after the early and mail vote. Don't take anything from this yet. Many of those races are close, and election day could swing a completely different way.

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Matthew Ahn @matthewahn.bsky.social · 06/05/2026

Meanwhile, Christine McIntosh holds a narrower lead over Shirley Smith in District 11, with Ebony Spano far behind.

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Matthew Ahn @matthewahn.bsky.social · 06/05/2026

I neglected to mention the two contested county council primaries above. Marty Sweeney has two challengers in District 3 and there is a 3-way race in District 11 as well. Sweeney is up comfortably over Stephanie Thomas for the time being.

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Matthew Ahn @matthewahn.bsky.social · 06/05/2026

William Vodrey is up by 49(!) points over James Sean Gallagher. Again, I want to see some Election Day returns, but this one might be over.

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Matthew Ahn @matthewahn.bsky.social · 06/05/2026

Russell, Sigurdson, and Miller, all of whom received the Democratic party endorsement, comfortably ahead in their races. I want to see some Election Day returns, but each of these races might be over.

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Matthew Ahn @matthewahn.bsky.social · 06/05/2026

Ed FitzGerald with a lead in early and mail voting, with Poindexter second and Eisner third. Notably, Scott Schulz, who has been very actively campaigning, way far back in 6th.

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Matthew Ahn @matthewahn.bsky.social · 06/05/2026

Kulewicz and Russo far ahead in Cuyahoga County's early and mail vote, mirroring results from other counties.

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Matthew Ahn @matthewahn.bsky.social · 06/05/2026

We have our first Cuyahoga County dump. Give me a sec to screenshot. I apologize for visually impaired folks, but I'm going to be moving a little too fast for alt text.

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Matthew Ahn @matthewahn.bsky.social · 06/05/2026

Keep in mind that these are early and mail votes ONLY from a random sampling of counties. These are only a small set of the votes in each of these respective elections.

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Matthew Ahn @matthewahn.bsky.social · 06/05/2026

Nothing in yet in Cuyahoga County, but we do have some statewide results. Please keep in mind that these are NOT broken down by county: Kulewicz up big in the AG race. Russo up big in the SOS race. Jukic with a narrow lead over O'Neill in OH-14.

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Matthew Ahn @matthewahn.bsky.social · 06/05/2026

For those of you new to following Ohio election returns: We usually get early and mail voting returns between 8 and 8:30, and then there's usually an hour or so before Election Day returns start reporting, usually a few dozen precincts at a time (I call these "dumps", because I'm ten years old).

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Matthew Ahn @matthewahn.bsky.social · 06/05/2026

There are also dozens of employees of the county prosecutor's office running for central committee. The list of employees is below, but I believe there might be closer to 60 total candidates affiliated with Michael O'Malley, ~25 of whom are uncontested. dakotahsays.beehiiv.com/p/cuyahoga-c...

A post that reads "CURRENT AND FORMER CUYAHOGA COUNTY PROSECUTORS RUNNING FOR CENTRAL COMMITTEE" with a list of 30 prosecutors who are candidates.

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Matthew Ahn @matthewahn.bsky.social · 06/05/2026

Three state house primaries: 4 candidates in the 18th (although Davida Russell and Gabe Crenshaw are the top contenders). 3 candidates in the 19th (Nicole Sigurdson, Dionna Gore, and Cheryl Perez). 4 candidates in the 20th (Mike Seals, Lauren Welch, Eugene Miller, and Charlotte Perkins).

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Matthew Ahn @matthewahn.bsky.social · 06/05/2026

One countywide race in Cuyahoga: Judge William Vodrey is being challenged by James Sean Gallagher, in a race that seems to have some ripples outward, inward, and in all sorts of different directions. I've yelled about this situation on social media before. www.ideastream.org/government-p...

ideastream.org

Cuyahoga County judge believes prosecutor's office made him a political primary target

Judge William Vodrey says he believes his work on the New Era Cleveland case last year contributed to the decision to challenge his seat.

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Matthew Ahn @matthewahn.bsky.social · 06/05/2026

The two congressional races: OH-14 is a little simpler, with three Dems vying for Dave Joyce's seat. OH-07 has EIGHT candidates hoping to take on Max Miller, with the likeliest winners being Brian Poindexter and Ed FitzGerald, while I believe Michael Eisner also has an outside shot.

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Matthew Ahn @matthewahn.bsky.social · 06/05/2026

There are two contested statewide races I'll be watching: Secretary of State (Bryan Hambley vs. Allison Russo) and Attorney General (John Kulewicz vs. Elliot Forhan). I expect the former to be close and the latter to be less close.

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Matthew Ahn @matthewahn.bsky.social · 06/05/2026

First off: What is the turnout number? This could be a big year for Democrats, but Ohio has sometimes bucked national trends. If primary turnout is below 2022 levels, that's a concern. If it's above 2018 levels, this could be a huge year for Dems. Somewhere in the middle, still useful info.

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