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Matthieu Favas

@mattfavas.bsky.social

2.6K followers 3 following 28 posts

I lead The Economist's coverage of commodities globally - energy, food and mining - as well as that of economic sanctions, grey/black markets and illicit finance more broadly.

Posts Replies Media

Matthieu Favas @mattfavas.bsky.social · 30/04/2026

You cannot substitute flows with stocks. The world is about to find out what happens when you try. My cover briefing this week: www.economist.com/briefing/202... With excellent contributions from Christian Odendhal, Ehan Wu, Simon Wright and Vishnu Padmanabhan (6/6)

The crisis in oil markets will get bigger before it goes away

As stocks dwindle, further price rises are inevitable

Matthieu Favas @mattfavas.bsky.social · 30/04/2026

Even America isn't immune. The East Coast depends on Gulf refineries and European imports. The West Coast relied partly on Asia and the Middle East. Summer driving season starts in weeks. One way or another, in many regions, fuel consumption will be rationed—whether by price or by fiat (5/6)

Matthieu Favas @mattfavas.bsky.social · 30/04/2026

Regional countdown: Pockets of East Africa are living cargo-to-cargo Asia ex-China: Crude stocks down 13%; some countries 5-6 weeks from petrol shortages Oz: as close to diesel and jet-fuel depletion Europe: IEA warns of jet fuel shortages by June if Gulf imports aren't replaced (4/6)

Matthieu Favas @mattfavas.bsky.social · 30/04/2026

What happens next: commercial inventories now need to cover 6-8m b/d—a pace no one considers sustainable. Traders estimate shortages will materialise in 4-8 weeks across most regions. Some diesel cargoes are already selling for $600/barrel, up from $300 last week (3/6)

Matthieu Favas @mattfavas.bsky.social · 30/04/2026

This calm is an illusion built on rapidly depleting buffers. The Hormuz closure is taking 14m barrels per day, or 13%, off global supply. The world is draining stocks at 8m b/d—four times faster than during the post-COVID recovery. Floating inventory is gone. Strategic stocks are being raided (2/6)

Matthieu Favas @mattfavas.bsky.social · 30/04/2026

The world has weeks of fuel buffers left. Markets haven't noticed yet. In the last day or so Brent crude first rose by 14%, to $126 a barrel, before crashing by $12, to $114 a barrel. To me, this does not scream panic (1/6)

Matthieu Favas @mattfavas.bsky.social · 09/03/2026

4.8bn people. Less than 50 days of crude stocks in India, SK and Singapore. Weeks of LNG in Bangladesh and Pakistan. Same for jet fuel in Oz/Nz. The Iran war is causing an Asian energy emergency www.economist.com/finance-and-...

The Iran war puts Asia in an energy panic

Stranded Gulf supplies are choking off the region’s economies

Matthieu Favas @mattfavas.bsky.social · 03/03/2026

Iran has struck energy infra in Saudi, Qatar, Kuwait & the UAE. Hormuz is effectively closed. Oil is up 14%. European gas up 70%. Iraq is cutting production. This is the nightmare scenario energy analysts feared most www.economist.com/finance-and-...

The nightmare Iran energy scenario is becoming reality

A longer war means a harsher global economic fallout

Matthieu Favas @mattfavas.bsky.social · 01/03/2026

A third of the world's seaborne oil passes through a strait 33 miles wide. War in Iran is fast making it unnavigable. Markets reopen tonight www.economist.com/finance-and-...

War in Iran could cause the biggest oil shock in years

Prices will surge in the short run—and may stay high for a while

Matthieu Favas @mattfavas.bsky.social · 27/02/2026

America's bet on critical minerals assumes Western subsidies can outlast Chinese patience. China has been executing this playbook for 40 years. Washington has been at it for months. Will it work? Our cover story this week www.economist.com/briefing/202...

America’s new era of state-sponsored mining

Desperate to break China’s grip on critical minerals, the Trump administration is splashing cash around the world

Matthieu Favas @mattfavas.bsky.social · 18/02/2026

Russia is dangling a $12 trillion prize in front of America. I ran the numbers. Putin’s offer is a trap www.economist.com/finance-and-...

Will investing in Russia really bring America a $12trn bonanza?

The Kremlin is making big promises to Donald Trump’s administration

Matthieu Favas @mattfavas.bsky.social · 09/12/2025

Last week the EU pledged to stop buying Russian gas by 2027. But there is one commodity from the bellicose giant next door it remains hooked on: plant food www.economist.com/europe/2025/...

Europe bans Russia’s gas exports, but still buys its gas-based fertiliser

The EU’s rising tariffs may not solve the problem

Matthieu Favas @mattfavas.bsky.social · 23/10/2025

The Trump administration has just blacklisted Russia’s two largest oil firms. Global prices have lept; some big Indian and Chinese refiners say they will stop importing. Are these new sanctions really the all-out strike they appear? My quick take www.economist.com/finance-and-...

Will America’s new sanctions on Russian oil force a peace deal?

Donald Trump raises the pressure—but he may have to go further

Matthieu Favas @mattfavas.bsky.social · 12/09/2025

Three years ago, a food calamity loomed. Russia’s war in Ukraine pitted 2 big grain exporters against each other; prices surged. As the war rages on, Ukraine's wheat exports are set to shrink by 25-30% this season. And yet prices are nearing 5-year lows. Here's why www.economist.com/finance-and-...

How grain has gone from famine to feast

Prices are close to a five-year low

Matthieu Favas @mattfavas.bsky.social · 04/09/2025

Commodity markets look simple. When the supply of a material shrinks, prices go up. When supply expands, they go down. The problem is that supply shocks never quite live up to the initial excitement. For a recent example, take a look at lithium www.economist.com/finance-and-...

Why supply shocks are a trap for commodity investors

Lessons from lithium’s fake rally

Matthieu Favas @mattfavas.bsky.social · 09/05/2025

Thrilled to say that I have been named Journalist of the Year by the @wincottfound.bsky.social, for my coverage of Iran's sanction-busting, Russia's new economic friends and China's secret commodity stockpiles. Huge thanks to my colleagues and editors wincott.co.uk/matthieu-fav...

Matthieu Favas of The Economist wins Journalist of the Year … Bloomberg’s Damian Shepherd named Young Journalist … Claer Barrett of FT “outstanding’ in personal finance … Campaigning journalism of Gre...

Matthieu Favas of The Economist was named Wincott Journalist of the Year 2024 for his “superb reporting on some of the most opaque subjects,…

Matthieu Favas @mattfavas.bsky.social · 10/04/2025

In the trade war between the US and China, most of the focus has been on the tariff tit for tat. But China has another weapon to hurt America: restrictions on rare-earth exports. That is a weapon it is starting to deploy. How much damage could it cause? www.economist.com/finance-and-...

China has a weapon that could hurt America: rare-earth exports

It has only just begun to use it

Matthieu Favas @mattfavas.bsky.social · 04/04/2025

Markets are sliding. Oil and gas are tanking. Other commodities are down. So this week I wrote about a niche material that's holding up better than most. Tin is the one critical metal no one's talking about www.economist.com/finance-and-...

Tin, an overlooked critical metal, is enjoying a boom

Prized and in short supply, its price is very volatile

Matthieu Favas @mattfavas.bsky.social · 25/03/2025

What if America lifts sanctions on Russia but Europe does not? Access to US tech, currency and payment networks, some say, is what Russia really wants. But the old continent has its own weapons. Ignored and threatened, it may be tempted to use them www.economist.com/finance-and-...

How Europe can hurt Russia’s economy

Even if America lifts sanctions, the old continent has its own weapons

Matthieu Favas @mattfavas.bsky.social · 14/03/2025

Faced with Trump's bullying, Europe wants to avoid escalation. Its retaliatory tariffs are measured. The bloc still hopes that the worst instincts of the American president and his coterie can be moderated. But what if they can't? www.economist.com/briefing/202...

If it comes to a stand-off, Europe has leverage over America

But pulling some of those levers would be so damaging as to make them unusable

Matthieu Favas @mattfavas.bsky.social · 07/03/2025

Three months after Syria’s 14-year civil war ended, and as Ramadan begins, euphoria is being replaced by anger at the continuing atrophying of the economy. There is a way to change this www.economist.com/briefing/202...

Syria’s economy, still strangled by sanctions, is on its knees

It will not improve until they are lifted

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Matthieu Favas @mattfavas.bsky.social · 18/02/2025

As Trump starts talks with Russia on ending war in Ukraine, European gas prices are cooling. They are now 17% down from their peak of Feb 10th. How likely is it that Europe starts piping gas from Russia again? www.economist.com/finance-and-...

Will Europe return to Putin’s gas?

A deal with the devil would boost the continent’s miserable economy

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Matthieu Favas @mattfavas.bsky.social · 11/02/2025

MUFG, a bank, estimates that a 25% tariff will push up the cost of a tonne of steel imported into America from $755 to over $900, negating a cost advantage that America currently enjoys over Europe. Donald Trump's metals wars will corrode the economy www.economist.com/finance-and-...

Donald Trump’s Super Bowl tariffs are an act of self-harm

Duties on aluminium and steel will throttle American industry and fragment global markets

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Matthieu Favas @mattfavas.bsky.social · 30/01/2025

The Arctic’s first ice-free day may occur before 2030. For many this is a tragedy. But some smell a huge economic opportunity www.economist.com/finance-and-...

The Arctic: climate change’s great economic opportunity

An enormous prize is on offer. When might it be grasped?

Matthieu Favas @mattfavas.bsky.social · 14/01/2025

After ignoring Iran's clandestine oil trade for most of his tenure, Biden is finally turning the screws. The result: Iran's oil exports are down by a quarter in 3 months. Now Trump promises maximum pressure... How will Iran - and oil prices - respond? www.economist.com/finance-and-...

Iran is vulnerable to a Trumpian all-out economic assault

Oil prices are already at a five-month high

Matthieu Favas @mattfavas.bsky.social · 18/12/2024

For the first time since 2022, it looks like Ukraine is winning the economic war. But it faces strong headwinds: the uptick of war, the downtick of domestic resources... and Donald Trump www.economist.com/finance-and-... Great to collaborate with @olliecarroll.bsky.social

Ukraine is winning the economic war against Russia

Whether that lasts depends on its ability to overcome acute shortages of power, men and money

Matthieu Favas @mattfavas.bsky.social · 10/12/2024

Donald Trump wants to be the ultimate energy baron. But how much oil can he really pump? (Spoiler: much less than he says) www.economist.com/finance-and-...

How much oil can Trump pump?

The president-elect wants to be the ultimate energy baron

Matthieu Favas @mattfavas.bsky.social · 18/11/2024

Coal is the dirtiest fossil fuel. Yet it still provides a third of global energy. What would it cost to kill it? My colleagues and I crunched the numbers in this COP-special interactive piece www.economist.com/interactive/...

What would it cost to kill coal?

The price of shutting down coal power, and what would be gained