iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Matt Berkley @mattberkley.bsky.social · 20/01/2026

Also: the more that statistics on serious attacks are dominated by those who know each other, the less relevance to most people's safety.

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It's perhaps worth noting that even when we don't know where we may be wrong, we may still be able to think about how to guess at sources of uncertainty - such as by thinking about - how we've been biased in the past, - what mistakes others have made, - how we have defined key concepts and ...

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Matt Berkley @mattberkley.bsky.social · 11/10/2025

Let's think of other ways to conceptualise this. "Unlimited irresponsibility" "Unlimited damage potential" "Unlimited recklessness" "Limited liability" concerns the welfare of the offender, rather than others.

Matt Berkley @mattberkley.bsky.social · 11/02/2025

Reposted by Matt Berkley

Let's take a little time to consider what Trump and his allies may be doing behind the scenes, in the form for instance of instructions to agencies on surveillance.

Matt Berkley @mattberkley.bsky.social · 28/11/2025

Reposted by Matt Berkley

If your government has a realistic plan in case of a sudden and massive disruption to fossil fuel supply (through war or otherwise): It can probably use a lot of that plan now for the climate crisis. If it doesn't have that plan: It's probably failing on both counts.

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Matt Berkley @mattberkley.bsky.social · 16/12/2025

SINO: Science In Name Only.

Matt Berkley @mattberkley.bsky.social · 21/10/2025

Reposted by Matt Berkley

Yes, it's important for people to understand climate effects of outsourcing to other countries (including both emissions and lost forests). Also material footprint (end of article) www.escoe.ac.uk/the-uks-hidd... and pollution/habitat destruction effects of outsourced manufacturing/farming.

escoe.ac.uk

The UK’s hidden carbon footprint - ESCoE

Accounting for environmental impacts in trade By Anne Owen, Lena Killian and Rutger Hoekstra When […]

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Matt Berkley @mattberkley.bsky.social · 14/11/2025

"Adding up some domestic emissions that your largely service economy causes and going on about "net zero" without telling people each time what you are talking about is a bit like paying your poorer neighbour to burn your rubbish and implying you haven't caused any smoke." Is that fair?

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Matt Berkley @mattberkley.bsky.social · 16/12/2025

Climate impacts of a country on others, in addition to domestic emissions, include impacts caused or partially caused outside its borders, through for example: Outsourced emissions Shipping, aviation Subsidiaries Financing pollution Failure of companies/governments to warn of dangers Military

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Shall we call traditional peer review (for example, secret, only involving a couple of reviewers who may not between them have all the required skills, knowledge and experience, and unpaid) initial peer review: IPR?

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Matt Berkley @mattberkley.bsky.social · 15/01/2026

Shall we say "published article" (or "draft" if the authors prefer) instead of "preprint" if it's published on the internet, and "traditionally published" or "published with a claim of initial peer review" if it's traditionally "published"?

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If people expert in research methods publicise lists of research they have assessed as adequate and at least potentially significant, that might help focus attention on deserving work, and less on work that's very-difficult-to-assess-regardless-of-expertise. bsky.app/profile/matt...

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Some astronomy words Showsun/Sunshow/Revealsun/Sunreveal/Seesun/Sunsee/Uncoversun/Sununcover/HRS (Horizon Reveals Sun) Hidesun/Suncover/Coversun/HHS (Horizon Hides Sun) Showmoon/Hidemoon/Mooncover etc.

Reposted by Matt Berkley

Moonpass The Moon always overtakes Earth on the outside. This is usually a Full Moon; sometimes a Shademoon/Part Shademoon (lunar eclipse). Passmoon Earth always overtakes the Moon on the outside. A New Moon; sometimes a total/partial Moonsun/Sunmoon/Sunblock (solar eclipse).

Reposted by Matt Berkley

Is the bigger threat "AI" or "IA", InAttention?

Matt Berkley @mattberkley.bsky.social · 14/01/2026

Reposted by Matt Berkley

"If there are two steps in my argument and each has 70% probability then I am probably wrong. 70/100 x 70/100 = 4900/10000 = 49%." web.archive.org/web/20081121...

web.archive.org

Social science and government aims: proposed standards for public goals and research

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Matt Berkley @mattberkley.bsky.social · 14/01/2026

"If there are two steps in my argument and each has 70% probability then I am probably wrong. 70/100 x 70/100 = 4900/10000 = 49%." web.archive.org/web/20081121...

web.archive.org

Social science and government aims: proposed standards for public goals and research

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Matt Berkley @mattberkley.bsky.social · 18/12/2025

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These "central estimates" for global average temperature are out of line with any normal or sane approach to risk. Think of the % chances you're happy to take action, or pay, to avoid as regards plane travel, crime, health, insurance and so on.

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Matt Berkley @mattberkley.bsky.social · 05/11/2025

And it's not just the average global temperature rise that's important - it's, for example: higher rises in some places, and temperature differences between places causing weather disruption, and these, and the speed of change, disrupt ecological systems.

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Matt Berkley @mattberkley.bsky.social · 09/10/2025

Politician: Voters won't let me do what I think is right/science says on animal welfare/climate/environment/refugees. Journalist can ask: Are you not experienced in persuasion? Are you not paid to be a leader? Are you giving voters the relevant facts?

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Is the bigger threat "AI" or "IA", InAttention?

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More than one ethical problem here: "For the purposes of these Regulations, “Misconduct” means all and any behaviour...which Council shall in its reasonable discretion consider to be seriously injurious to the reputation or interests of the Society." royalsociety.org/-/media/abou...

Royal Society Disciplinary Regulations

1. Purpose of these Regulations

1.1 The purpose [MB highlighted "purpose"] of these Regulations is to enable the Royal Society (“the Society”), in pursuit of its charitable objects, to protect its reputation [MB highlighted "protect its reputation"] should any Fellows or Foreign Members of the Society fail to maintain sufficient standards of professional or relevant personal conduct, as outlined in the Code of Conduct for Royal Society Fellows and Foreign Members. ...

2. Misconduct

For the purposes of these Regulations, “Misconduct” means all and any behaviour by a Fellow or Foreign Member which Council shall in its reasonable discretion consider to be seriously injurious to the reputation or interests of the Society [MB highlighted "injurious to the reputation or interests of the Society"]. Such behaviour may include (but is not limited to):

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"all Fellows and Foreign Members are expected to follow the Nolan principles of public life, namely: selflessness, integrity, objectivity, accountability, openness, honesty and leadership." royalsociety.org/-/media/abou...

Royal Society: Code of Conduct and Disciplinary Regulations

Code of Conduct for Royal Society Fellows and Foreign Members

The Royal Society (“Society”)’s fundamental purpose, reflected in its founding Charters of the 1660s, is to
recognise, promote, and support excellence in science and to encourage the development and use of
science for the benefit of humanity. The credibility of the Society’s work in pursuit of these objectives
rests in large part upon its reputation. This in turn rests upon the reputation of the Fellows and Foreign
Members of which the Society is composed, and their upholding of high standards in their work and
conduct both inside and outside of the Society.
Fellowship and Foreign Membership of the Society is a privilege predicated on adherence to particular
standards of conduct. Fellows and Foreign Members, by joining the Society, agree to abide by this Code of
Conduct.

Section 1 – Principles

1. Fellows and Foreign Members shall support the Society and its charitable purposes.

2. Fellows and Foreign Members shall adhere to the provisions within the Society's governing
document relating to them and their role and responsibilities, and shall adhere to all of the
Society's policies that at any time are relevant to Fellows and Foreign Members.

3. The Society strives to act in accordance with the highest standards of public life. In their work with
the Society, all Fellows and Foreign Members are expected to follow the Nolan principles of public
life, namely: selflessness, integrity, objectivity, accountability, openness, honesty and leadership.

4. Fellows and Foreign Members shall have due regard for the statement of values developed from
time to time by Society from time to time (the current version of which is outlined below in the
Appendix), and shall use their best endeavours to promote these values.

5. Fellows and Foreign Members shall not act or fail to act in any way which would undermine the
Society's mission or bring the Society int…

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Matt Berkley @mattberkley.bsky.social · 09/11/2025

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I'm thinking more of a set of findings endorsed by statisticians/methodologists etc with "we are unable to find any serious flaws here, so this is worth citing" rather than examples.

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Matt Berkley @mattberkley.bsky.social · 20/10/2025

I'm wondering if academic papers might usefully include a "Due Diligence Declaration" to the effect that authors have taken reasonable, perhaps for some purposes specified, steps to try to ensure both their own work and the work they cite are adequate.

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Matt Berkley @mattberkley.bsky.social · 09/11/2025

In a field where evidence suggests that a high proportion of papers have serious flaws, a database of "potentially important" papers which appear *not* to have serious flaws might be useful, as well as identifying those that do.

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Matt Berkley @mattberkley.bsky.social · 28/11/2025

"World leaders and others have misled that the SDGs are "transformative" and "supremely ambitious" and so on when in fact they are less ambitious than pre-existing, key UN goals on water and sanitation for 2020 and 2025." web.archive.org/web/20221026...

web.archive.org

Matt Berkley @mattberkley.bsky.social · 10/11/2025

Reposted by Matt Berkley

We can ask when citation is justified, and also what is justifiable to say about the earlier work when citing it. Should researchers note a general apparent level of reliability/unreliability within the field, or which papers they have checked for comments on post-publication peer review sites?

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Matt Berkley @mattberkley.bsky.social · 18/12/2025

A mistake too big to correct?

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Matt Berkley @mattberkley.bsky.social · 10/01/2026

Moonahead Jupiter now shows ~where we've reached, in Gemini, as we orbit the Sun (Earth/Jupiter orbits are slightly inclined). Also, today's half moon (15.48 GMT) will be in the ~direction of our orbit round the Sun (within ~10 moon "widths": Moon's orbit is inclined to the orbit round the Sun).

Image from NASA's Eyes on the Solar System web app, showing the Moon roughly ahead of Earth as they orbit the Sun.

The Moon is now moving approximately towards the Sun as well as around it.

It also wobbles the Earth's orbit, as the combined centre of mass is closer to the Earth's surface than to its centre.

Orbits can be complex.

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Happy Nirjup today, and happy Passjup tomorrow! We overtake Jupiter about every 13 months. The "nearest" time and the "overtaking" time are different because of the orbital paths. Tomorrow Jupiter will be sopposite (sort-of-opposite) the Sun: the orbits are inclined.

Matt Berkley @mattberkley.bsky.social · 10/01/2026

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