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Matías Scaglione @matias.motioresearch.com · 21/09/2026

One important nuance: our unpublished one-month momentum measure rebounded to +0.17% in August after negative readings in June and July. The recent deterioration in real household-income momentum has mainly reflected slower nominal income growth, not the recent pickup in inflation.

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Matías Scaglione @matias.motioresearch.com · 21/09/2026

U.S. household-income momentum (year-over-year change) turned negative in August, falling to −0.35%. Real median household income was unchanged over one month and down 1.2% over three months. Dashboard: motioresearch.com/dashboard/ #econsky

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Matías Scaglione @matias.motioresearch.com · 04/09/2026

May I ask which are the other reasons?

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Matías Scaglione @matias.motioresearch.com · 26/08/2026

Real and nominal median household income also fell for a second straight month. The next releases will show whether household income rebounds or continues to weaken. Dashboard: motioresearch.com/dashboard/

Line chart of the Motio U.S. Real Median Household Income Index from March 2010 through July 2026, with March 2010 equal to 100. The index generally rises after 2013, with pandemic-era estimates shown in a lighter line because of CPS nonresponse bias. After reaching 119.4 in May 2026, the index falls for two consecutive months, to 118.8 in June and 118.0 in July. The series is a seasonally adjusted three-month moving average.

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Matías Scaglione @matias.motioresearch.com · 26/08/2026

U.S. household-income momentum nearly stalled in July, falling from +2.26% in May to +0.17%. It remains positive, so no Motio Rule warning was triggered. But excluding the pandemic disruption, this was the sharpest two-month decline since the momentum record began in 1995. #EconSky

Line chart of U.S. real median household-income momentum—the year-over-year percentage change in the trailing three-month average—from March 1995 through July 2026. Gray bands mark NBER recessions; red labels identify Motio Rule warnings in February 2001 and December 2007. Dotted observations mark pandemic-affected estimates excluded from the analysis. At the far right, momentum falls from 2.26% in May 2026 to 1.09% in June and 0.17% in July, remaining slightly above zero.

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Matías Scaglione @matias.motioresearch.com · 26/08/2026

The next releases will show whether household income rebounds or continues to weaken. Our full, up-to-date Motio Rule framework, published today by Econbrowser: econbrowser.com/archives/202... Dashboard with interactive charts: motioresearch.com/dashboard/

econbrowser.com

Guest Contribution: “The U.S. Household-Income Cycle and the Motio Rule” | Econbrowser

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Matías Scaglione @matias.motioresearch.com · 26/08/2026

The momentum series excludes Census-imputed income data. Motio’s longstanding headline series includes them—and it weakened too. Real and nominal median household income both fell for a second straight month.

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Matías Scaglione @matias.motioresearch.com · 26/08/2026

The formal picture has not changed: momentum remains positive and the household-income cycle remains in a mature expansion. But the speed of the deterioration deserves attention.

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Matías Scaglione @matias.motioresearch.com · 26/08/2026

Household-income momentum fell to +0.17% in July, from +1.09% in June and +2.26% in May. Excluding pandemic-affected observations, this was the sharpest two-month decline in the momentum record, which begins in March 1995.

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Matías Scaglione @matias.motioresearch.com · 26/08/2026

A routine data update. Not a routine set of numbers. We’ve published our first monthly U.S. household-income update since introducing the Motio Rule on August 11. 🧵 #econsky

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Matías Scaglione @matias.motioresearch.com · 14/08/2026

The New York Times included Motio Research in its latest U.S. inflation coverage. Lydia DePillis highlighted our finding that the three-month average of household income declined in June, and I discussed the broader household-income cycle and the Motio Rule. www.nytimes.com/2026/08/12/b...

nytimes.com

Inflation Eased Slightly in July, but Prices Remain Elevated as War Drags On

Though energy prices fell last month after their spring surge, other factors pushed up costs as the Fed considers raising interest rates.

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Matías Scaglione @matias.motioresearch.com · 11/08/2026

As of June 2026, household-income momentum stood at +1.1 percent. The economy remained in a mature household-income expansion. But household-income momentum posted the largest one-month decline during a mature expansion in the series to date

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Matías Scaglione @matias.motioresearch.com · 11/08/2026

Applied to history, the Motio Rule identified warnings in Feb 2001 and Dec 2007 — both within a month of the NBER's official business-cycle peak dates. (Retrospective, in-sample results; the live record starts today.)

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Matías Scaglione @matias.motioresearch.com · 11/08/2026

Today we're introducing the Motio Rule: a new U.S. recession-warning indicator built on household-income momentum, drawn from CPS microdata that isn't subject to routine revision. 🧵 #econsky

Line chart titled "U.S. Real Median Household Income Momentum: Year-over-year percent change in the trailing three-month average," plotting monthly data from 1995 to 2026 on a vertical axis ranging from -8 to 10 percent. Two gray-shaded bands mark NBER-designated recessions, in 2001 and 2007–2009. Red dots labeled "Recession Warning Feb-01" and "Recession Warning Dec-07" mark the Motio Rule's two historical warnings, each falling at or just before the start of its corresponding recession band. A dotted segment spanning roughly 2020 to 2022, including a sharp trough below -6 percent, is labeled "Pandemic-affected estimates — excluded from analysis." After that period, momentum recovers and fluctuates mostly between 0 and 4 percent through 2026, with no recession band or warning marker in the post-2021 data. Source: Motio Research, based on Current Population Survey (CPS) microdata.

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Matías Scaglione @matias.motioresearch.com · 28/07/2026

June’s combination of a 0.5% decline in the level and a full percentage-point loss of year-over-year momentum represents the largest weakening recorded during an established expansion phase of the series. Dashboard: motioresearch.com/household-in...

motioresearch.com

Series – Motio Research

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Matías Scaglione @matias.motioresearch.com · 28/07/2026

Year-over-year change is Motio’s principal measure of household-income direction and momentum. Real household-income growth had strengthened to 2.7% in April before easing to 2.6% in May. The full percentage-point decline in June sharply interrupted that stronger trajectory. #econsky

Line chart titled "U.S. Median Household Income, Year-over-Year Change," showing percent change from 12 months earlier for nominal and real household income from 2011 to 2026. Both series trend upward from near 0% in 2011 to roughly 4-5% by 2019. A sharp anomaly appears in 2020-2021, with nominal income spiking above 9% while real income plunges below -5%, reflecting CPS nonresponse bias during the pandemic. Nominal growth then surges again in 2022, peaking near 8%, while real growth stays comparatively muted. From 2023 onward both series moderate, with nominal income fluctuating between 2% and 6% and real income between roughly 1% and 4%. Real income growth had been strengthening through spring 2026, rising from 2.3% in March to 2.7% in April, before easing slightly to 2.6% in May and then falling a full percentage point in June, sharply interrupting the prior upward trajectory. A note below the chart states that April-November 2020 and 2021 estimates are affected by CPS nonresponse bias, and that October 2025 was imputed using September and November 2025 estimates and Chained CPI values. Source: Motio Research estimates based on CPS and Chained CPI data.

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Matías Scaglione @matias.motioresearch.com · 27/07/2026

One month does not establish a turning point. But June stands out because both the level and momentum of household income weakened together during an established upswing. Dashboard: motioresearch.com/household-in...

motioresearch.com

Series – Motio Research

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Matías Scaglione @matias.motioresearch.com · 27/07/2026

U.S. household-income momentum slowed sharply in June. Real median household income fell 0.5% to $88,390. Year-over-year growth slowed from 2.6% to 1.6%, while nominal median household income fell 0.3%. #econsky

Line chart titled “Motio U.S. Real Median Household Income Index,” with March 2010 set to 100. The index fell to about 97 in 2011–2013, then rose steadily through 2019. Estimates around 2020 are marked as unreliable because of CPS nonresponse bias. After declining and flattening in 2021–2023, the index resumed rising, reaching 119.5 in spring 2026 before falling to 118.9 in June 2026. The series is a seasonally adjusted three-month moving average based on CPS and Chained CPI data.

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Matías Scaglione @matias.motioresearch.com · 26/06/2026

Since March, year-over-year growth in the Motio household income index has reached its strongest pace of the post-pandemic recovery. Whether this stronger momentum can be sustained will be an important question in the months ahead. Interactive chart: motioresearch.com/household-in... #EconSky

U.S. Median Household Income, Year-over-Year Change -
Percent change from 12 months earlier.
Note: Year-over-year changes are calculated from 3-month moving average, seasonally adjusted series. April–November 2020 estimates and April–November 2021 year-over-year estimates are affected by CPS nonresponse bias. October 2025 was imputed using September and November 2025 household income estimates and Chained CPI values.

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Matías Scaglione @matias.motioresearch.com · 25/06/2026

U.S. real median household income was unchanged in May. The Motio U.S. Real Median Household Income Index stood at 119.6. The index increased 2.7% over twelve months, its strongest year-over-year pace of the post-pandemic recovery. Dashboard: motioresearch.com/household-in... #econsky

Chart showing the Motio U.S. Real Median Household Income Index from 2010 to May 2026. The index stood at 119.6 in May 2026, indicating that real median household income was 19.6% higher than in March 2010. The chart highlights the April–November 2020 period as unreliable due to pandemic-related nonresponse bias.

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