iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Reposted by math democrat

Peter Murphy @peterwmurphy1.bsky.social · 15h

When anyone asks: was she drunk? what was she wearing? was she alone at night? Let's be clear: You're defending a man's right to rape if he has the opportunity and blaming the victim for the crime. Rape is only ever caused by the rapist choosing to rape. #Cornell7 #sexism #misogyny #crime #VAW

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math democrat @mathdemocrat.bsky.social · 16h

Please forgive the many typographical errors. The data is mostly from government sources.

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math democrat @mathdemocrat.bsky.social · 16h

The writing including the errors (I saw too late) is completely original to me. I wrote all of it in one sitting, zero references. My hope is some might find it useful either personally or for sharing with independents, people we might win to vote Blue.

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math democrat @mathdemocrat.bsky.social · 16h

Wages grew by 4.6%. The unemployment rate fell by 2.2 percentage points from Trump's 6.4% to 4.2%. Under President Biden, the United States created 14.4 million jobs. That's the economy President Biden left Trump. Trump did the current damage all on his own

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math democrat @mathdemocrat.bsky.social · 16h

From 2021 through 2024 the GDP of the United States grew by 15.0%. In 2023 and in the third quarter of 2024, the GDP grew by 2.9%. Under President Biden, the budget deficit fell by $1.2 trillion from Trump's $3.1 trillion.

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math democrat @mathdemocrat.bsky.social · 16h

So, President Biden did not cause or even contribute to the increase in the rate of inflation, but he did bring it did. The fall in March of 2025 was an outgrowth of President Biden's work and, so, inflation was now 73.6% off its peak and the trend was clear and good. Inflation was falling.

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math democrat @mathdemocrat.bsky.social · 16h

At one US port the average daily line of container ships waiting to be unloaded rose to 155 container ships, but it fell to 13 container ships at that same port.

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math democrat @mathdemocrat.bsky.social · 16h

This enabled them to foresee and avoid kinks and inefficiencies and maximize efficiency. To see the difference this made, consider this example.

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math democrat @mathdemocrat.bsky.social · 16h

President Biden's FLOW program made all of the data and information about what was happening at locations all over the world for each stage of the manufacturing and shipping of goods until it reached the store available to all members of the supply chain.

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math democrat @mathdemocrat.bsky.social · 16h

Because of COVID it became much more difficult and it took much more time to acquire essential components for goods like silicone chips and it took longer to load goods onto container ships, ship them, and unload them at the ports.

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math democrat @mathdemocrat.bsky.social · 16h

To change that incentive the interest rate must be greater than the rate of inflation and that didn't happen mathematically until May of 2023, 11 months after the rate of inflation first started falling consistently. It clearly wasn't the Fed.

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math democrat @mathdemocrat.bsky.social · 16h

Thus, when the interest rate is less than the rate of inflation we effectively pay people to take out loans and spend money now which increases the money supply which is inflationary.

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math democrat @mathdemocrat.bsky.social · 16h

Would you buy it now or in a year? If you bought it in a year, you would have $110 from the interest, but the vehicle would now cost $120, and, in effect, you would have net lost $10.

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math democrat @mathdemocrat.bsky.social · 16h

Consider. You are going to buy a bicycle either now or in a year. It costs $100 and you have $100. Suppose using simple not compounded rates, the interest rate is 10% and the rate of inflation is 20%.

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math democrat @mathdemocrat.bsky.social · 16h

The Federal Reserve Board did not cause the reduction in the rate of inflation in the US. The only logical, plausible alternative is Biden's FLOW, Freight Logistics Optimization Works, program.

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math democrat @mathdemocrat.bsky.social · 16h

Of course not. The same is true for this economic scenario. ARP could not have been exerting a strong inflationary pressure upward and then suddenly, immediately and completely stopping and no longer exerting any inflationary pressure upward.

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math democrat @mathdemocrat.bsky.social · 16h

Can we envision the vehicle going from 100 mph to the very instant the driver hits the brakes 0 mph and not advancing and increasing the y value, the distance, as x is time?

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math democrat @mathdemocrat.bsky.social · 16h

Consider a vehicle whose velocity reaches 100 mph. Now, the driver hits the brakes hard. The position function is the original function. The second derivative is now negative, but the first is still positive. Eventually, the first derivative reaches zero and the vehicle reaches a complete stop.

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math democrat @mathdemocrat.bsky.social · 16h

But this means we must imagine ARP exerting strong inflationary pressure from September of 2021 to June of 2022 and then suddenly exerting no upward inflationary pressure at all. This is false and impossible.

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math democrat @mathdemocrat.bsky.social · 16h

This means there could have been no strong upward inflationary pressure exerted or the rate of inflation would not have been falling so sharply.

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math democrat @mathdemocrat.bsky.social · 16h

Yet, the rate of inflation was falling from June of 2022 to June of 2023, on average, by more than half a percentage point per month for an entire year.

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math democrat @mathdemocrat.bsky.social · 16h

Their argument, after all, isn't that ARP caused inflation to be a little higher for a couple of months. Since it passed March 11, 2021, then we should have, thus, seen it show almost all of its impact from September or December of 2021 to September or December of 2022, at a minimum.

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math democrat @mathdemocrat.bsky.social · 16h

ARP should have begun to show much of its effect on inflation starting around 6 to 9 months after it passed and if ARP had a strong inflationary effect, then it should have lasted for at least a year.

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math democrat @mathdemocrat.bsky.social · 16h

5. From June of 2022 to June of 2023, on average, in the US, the rate of inflation fell by .508/month, meaning the rate of inflation fell by more than half a percentage point per month for an entire year.

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math democrat @mathdemocrat.bsky.social · 16h

4. The correlation between the three lines representing the rate of inflation in the US and the Eurozone and the rest of the world as a whole was .90, nearly perfect correlation.

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math democrat @mathdemocrat.bsky.social · 16h

3. Location: when the rate of inflation first started consistently falling A. US June 2022 B. Eurozone October 2022 C. Rest of the world as a whole December 2022 US best: June earlier than October earlier than December ✓

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math democrat @mathdemocrat.bsky.social · 16h

US best: 3 7<4.9<6 0✓ US best: 68%<113%<166 & 2/3%✓ 2. Location: peak rate of inflation A. US 9.1% B. Rest of the world as a whole 9.6% C. Eurozone 10.6% US best: 9.1%<9.6%<10.6%

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math democrat @mathdemocrat.bsky.social · 16h

A. US 5.4% 9.1% 3.7 percentage points and an increase by 68% B. Rest of the world as a whole 4.3% 9.2% 4.9 percentage points and an increase by 113% C. Eurozone 3.6% 9.6% 6.0 percentage points and an increase by 166 & 2/3%

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math democrat @mathdemocrat.bsky.social · 16h

1. Location: rate of inflation September 2021 and June 2022 and the difference and the percent increase

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math democrat @mathdemocrat.bsky.social · 16h

Retaining OER, let's compare the US to the rest of the world as a whole and the Eurozone.

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math democrat @mathdemocrat.bsky.social · 16h

. Israel gets all of their energy from their own domestic liquid natural gas fields. That's it. There are 38 advanced nations and the above advanced nations are the only to have a lower peak rate of inflation than the US delete OER and they all had a specific identifiable advantage over the US.

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math democrat @mathdemocrat.bsky.social · 16h

Switzerland gets 90% of their energy from hydropower and nuclear power. South Korea and France and Taiwan all set controls on energy costs and the governments absorbed the bull of the increase in energy costs, protecting consumers, and keeping their peak rate of inflation lower

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math democrat @mathdemocrat.bsky.social · 16h

Of course, if your nation has struggled with deflation for 30 years then your nation will have a lower peak rate of inflation. Norway gets 90% if their energy from hydropower.

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math democrat @mathdemocrat.bsky.social · 16h

are Japan which had struggled with deflation for 30 years and other advanced nations that were essentially completely protected from spiking oil prices.

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math democrat @mathdemocrat.bsky.social · 16h

If we remove OER to compare apples with apples, then the peak rate of inflation in the US is 7.3% and the only advanced nations who have a lower peak rate of inflation

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math democrat @mathdemocrat.bsky.social · 16h

They compare the current answer with their answer to the same question before and this yields change over time. Most advanced nations do not use OER in their calculation of the rate of inflation. Those who go do not weight it more than 15% while it is 25% of headline topline CPI.

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math democrat @mathdemocrat.bsky.social · 16h

OER is owner's equivalent rent which means the government asks property owners how much they think they would charge for rent for their property if they were going to rent it.

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math democrat @mathdemocrat.bsky.social · 16h

Then June 2021 5.4% Oops July 2021 5.4% It changed but OOPS it fell August 2021 5.3% It increased but only by one tenth of one percentage point September 2021 5.4%

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math democrat @mathdemocrat.bsky.social · 16h

April 2021 2.6% 50 days since ARP passed and the rate of inflation has actually tripled. May 2021 4.2% 80 days since ARP passed and the rate of inflation nearly quadrupled. June 2021 5.4% .

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math democrat @mathdemocrat.bsky.social · 16h

March 2021 1.4% March 11, 2021 ARP passed 20 days later, the rate of inflation nearly doubled

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math democrat @mathdemocrat.bsky.social · 16h

However, with only a few, temporary, minor exceptions from June of 2022 to June of 2023 while the rate of inflation, on average, was falling by more than half a percentage point per month for an entire year, consumer spending consistently increased the entire time.

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math democrat @mathdemocrat.bsky.social · 16h

5. The proposed chain breaks from June of 2022 to June of 2023. The theory was that overheated consumer spending caused backlogs which led to increased time and shipping costs which led to retailers increasing prices, inflation.

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math democrat @mathdemocrat.bsky.social · 16h

4. From June through September the rate of inflation didn't increase and while it is not really enough time, so e hint of the expected demand should have shown up then and it did not.

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math democrat @mathdemocrat.bsky.social · 16h

2. The backlog and increased time and costs for shipping preceded ARP. 3. Retail stores would not continue with the anticipation of the expected demand didn't materialize.

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math democrat @mathdemocrat.bsky.social · 16h

The anticipation theory if the University of Chicago fails for many reasons. 1. CARES didn't cause such anticipation and it was in the same neighborhood of direct stimulus.

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math democrat @mathdemocrat.bsky.social · 16h

Something similar even if this isn't the exact step by step process shows the length of time that must pass before stimulus legislation can influence the rate of inflation.

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math democrat @mathdemocrat.bsky.social · 16h

11. The new, more expensive foreign supplier manufactures the new, more expensive hammers. 12. The new, more expensive foreign supplier ships all the new, more expensive hammers.

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math democrat @mathdemocrat.bsky.social · 16h

9. Retail stores find a new, more expensive foreign supplier. 10. Retail stores order more expensive hammers from their new, more expensive foreign supplier.

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