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Martin Schmalz

@martincschmalz.bsky.social
285 followers 1.7K following 188 posts

Professor of Finance, Economics, and Real Estate University of Oxford @ox.ac.uk

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Martin Schmalz @martincschmalz.bsky.social · 22h
The FTC continues to enforce Section 8 -- common directors on competitors' boards -- but allows the minority share acquisition. Stock price jumps on the announcement. www.ftc.gov/news-events/... Economic incentives through horizontal shareholding are more important than governance arrangements?
ftc.gov
FTC Takes Action to Prevent Anticompetitive Arrangement in Beretta, Ruger Deal
The Federal Trade Commission took action to resolve antitrust concerns arising from a stock purchase agreement between two of the largest firearm manufacturers, Beretta Holding S.A.
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Martin Schmalz @martincschmalz.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
What happens to consulting firms amid the AI disruption? - fewer juniors - record profits - record pay for seniors Why? "AI can’t replace lived experience or replicate the judgment and unwritten knowhow built over years". www.ft.com/content/94a2...
ft.com
https://www.ft.com/content/94a227c6-cded-415d-aa31-90f1da53a4ba
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Martin Schmalz @martincschmalz.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Half a decade into the LLM revolution, I still receive data consistent with the theory that it's becoming EASIER to screen applications. You too?
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Martin Schmalz @martincschmalz.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Audit committees can no longer rely on auditors to check internal controls. Liabilities pile up. How will they react? Are private-market solutions the answer? www.ft.com/content/2ef0...
ft.com
https://www.ft.com/content/2ef0c2fa-9626-4785-94cd-65fbf5be5741?syn-25a6b1a6=1
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Martin Schmalz @martincschmalz.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
"There are no agency conflicts," exclaimed a family office manager, insulted by remarks I gave last week at a family office conference -- remarks that included a hint at severe agency conflicts out there in family office land. "Do you take a salary?" was the Socratic response I had on my lips ...
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Martin Schmalz @martincschmalz.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Kids these days. Listening to a Real Estate Investor panel this week, where the view was pronounced that "interest rates are back at a historically normal level" and hence no source for concern. Uh? What will happen to real estate (and the overall economy) when rates go back to 1980 levels?
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Martin Schmalz @martincschmalz.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Why do mathematicians complain -- and sometimes resign -- as AI makes their jobs easier?? Brilliant explanation by Terrence Tao, including an illustration of the COMPLEMENTARITY between humans and AI. LOTS more work for human mathematicians thanks to AI! www.youtube.com/watch?v=svl_...
youtube.com
The paradox at the heart of AI and science | Terence Tao
Become a Big Think member to unlock expert classes, premium print issues, exclusive events and more:…
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Martin Schmalz @martincschmalz.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
The DOJ weighs joining the States' #antitrust lawsuit against BlackRock and State Street. Why would one publicize that? Tell me. Share your thoughts.https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-09-18/doj-weighs-joining-texas-blackrock-state-street-antitrust-case
bloomberg.com
DOJ Weighs Joining Texas BlackRock, State Street Antitrust Case
The US Justice Department is considering joining a state-led antitrust lawsuit against BlackRock Inc. and State Street Corp., two of the world’s largest asset managers, according to people familiar…
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Martin Schmalz @martincschmalz.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
One basic incentive misalignment in economics is that nobody gets rich by telling you: Water, not Red Bull. Index funds, not Robinhood. Walking, not biohacking. Sleep, not supplements. Books, not content. Checklists, not heroics. Compounding, not excitement. Boring is the new sexy.
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Martin Schmalz @martincschmalz.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
10 years ago, Bill Ackman worried that increasing rates of index fund ownership would lead to a keiretsu-style governance disaster in America, pointing to 20% as a threshold for control. That threshold is now breached for typical large-cap publicly traded companies. Corporateownershipdata.com
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Martin Schmalz @martincschmalz.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
Hello everyone, and welcome to my bluesky account. I'm starting to follow a lot of accounts here since I'm finally discovering folks that I follow on twitter
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Martin Schmalz @martincschmalz.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
On 4 July, at Princeton's Markus' Academy, the private-capital/insurance nexus was on my list of neglected risks in private markets.
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Martin Schmalz @martincschmalz.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
Taking investment advice from lottery winners seems like an obviously bad idea. But then why do people flock towards those whose financial success clearly had a gigantic portion of luck involved? It doesn't seem like what a Bayesian would do. papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
papers.ssrn.com
Fund Flows and Market States
This paper establishes a new empirical fact: mutual funds' flow-performance sensitivity is a hump-shaped function of aggregate risk-factor realizations. Explana
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Martin Schmalz @martincschmalz.bsky.social · 08/08/2026
Dual class shares = horrible governance Or so the arrived corporate governance literature would make you believe. Yet, several of the world's most valuable companies have dual-class share structures. What gives?
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Martin Schmalz @martincschmalz.bsky.social · 23/07/2026
1/ "Do private assets belong in retail investment portfolios?" asks Robert Armstrong in the FT. His answer on the fee structures: retail investors shouldn't go anywhere near them. That's the argument I made at Princeton's Markus' Academy a few days before that . 🧵
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Martin Schmalz @martincschmalz.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
A point of agreement with Larry Fink. I can easily believe that the "Trump accounts" create a different mindset of the population. In particular, few people will think of this mostly as a re-distributive policy. Related paper: www.nber.org/system/files...
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Martin Schmalz @martincschmalz.bsky.social · 15/07/2026
A propos of nothing, when is the last time you read Catch-22?
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Martin Schmalz @martincschmalz.bsky.social · 13/07/2026
1/ I joined Markus Brunnermeier's Markus' Academy (Princeton) to talk about neglected risks in private markets — returns, diversification, fees, liquidity, and why these risks get ignored. 🧵 Full talk: youtu.be/tr14tjLLOyw
youtu.be
Neglected Risks in Private Markets with Martin Schmalz | Markus Academy | Ep. 163
Follow the link for the full summary: https://markusacademy.substack.com/p/neglected-risks-in-private-equity Link to sign up for the webinar series: https://markusacademy.substack.com/ For our…
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Martin Schmalz @martincschmalz.bsky.social · 04/07/2026
"Brilliant talk, though you just destroyed my career" - most interesting compliment (I guess?) received so far. Was it pointing out that a 2% steals half your wealth within a generation? Or that large PE stakes probably increase rather than decrease your portfolio risk? If you want more, sign up:
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Martin Schmalz @martincschmalz.bsky.social · 03/07/2026
Remember when "hipster" antitrust-ers debated the IO establishment whether industry concentration was a contributing factor to price increases during negative supply shocks?
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Martin Schmalz @martincschmalz.bsky.social · 08/06/2026
Some takeaways from a few family firm/family office conferences I attended: most wealth creators assume the same skills and instincts that made them rich will protect their capital. I disagree. Creation often involved luck and taking idiosyncratic risks—optimism and gut calls over analysis.
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Martin Schmalz @martincschmalz.bsky.social · 08/06/2026
If you want to enable your kids to study medicine at Oxbridge, read ready to set aside half a million each www.ft.com/content/36e2...
ft.com
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Martin Schmalz @martincschmalz.bsky.social · 05/06/2026
One thought on hyperscaler / frontier-lab profitability & valuations. I own two firms, A and B. They have no assets, no revenue, no customers. A finds a tennis ball on the attic, and sells it to B against an IOU. B draws a smiley on it, which makes it worth $2 to A - sold. Etc.
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Martin Schmalz @martincschmalz.bsky.social · 02/06/2026
I'm at a conference, and people ask me whether #commonownership had any real-world impact. Should I resume my tweeting activity on the subject? Just a few months ago, the EC enforced a common-ownership case! ec.europa.eu/commission/p...
ec.europa.eu
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Martin Schmalz @martincschmalz.bsky.social · 01/06/2026
The PCAOB Office of Economic and Risk Analysis alumni are killing it! After Josh White becoming Chief Economist at SEC, Patrick Schorno is becoming Chief Economist at CFTC. Congratulations, Patrick! www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/Pr...
cftc.gov
CFTC Chairman Selig Announces Dr. Patrick J. Schorno as Chief Economist
CFTC Chairman Michael S. Selig today announced Dr. Patrick J. Schorno has been named the agency’s chief economist to serve as economic adviser to the Commission and integrate rigorous economic…
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Martin Schmalz @martincschmalz.bsky.social · 25/05/2026
Natural experiment just dropped ‘Fast entry’ SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs to ignite Wall Street trading frenzy www.ft.com/content/970b...
ft.com
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Martin Schmalz @martincschmalz.bsky.social · 03/04/2026
How do you reconcile the view that China is toast because of an aging population with high rates of young-people unemployment?
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Martin Schmalz @martincschmalz.bsky.social · 27/03/2026
I don't have an American Economic Review paper. In some ways, it becomes *easier* to screen applicants that use AI to write their pitches thanks to hallucinations. If you want to signal your ability to do high-quality research, check the AI output for factual accuracy.
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Martin Schmalz @martincschmalz.bsky.social · 12/03/2026
Announcing the second edition of the Zurich-Oxford Symposium on Real Estate Markets. (Check out the placement of last year's participants!)
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Martin Schmalz @martincschmalz.bsky.social · 20/02/2026
I read "there's never been a better time to be a fraudster" -- investors will reel in a few years when the consequences hit www.ft.com/content/b5d9... Perhaps private-market solutions will fill the void.
ft.com
The giant void of nothingness where US financial regulation used to sit
‘There has never been a better time to be a crook’
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Martin Schmalz @martincschmalz.bsky.social · 13/02/2026
Why do the hyperscalers overinvest? Stock markets seem to react negatively to surprise capex. So, is it empire building by the corporate leaders / an agency problem? Or government pressure to compete with China? What do you think?
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Martin Schmalz @martincschmalz.bsky.social · 05/02/2026
Reminder that the stock market is not the economy. When stock valuations grow faster than real economic activity, that can be because rents are redistributed to equity holders. The reverse can be true when advances in AI benefit users while equity holders pay.
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Martin Schmalz @martincschmalz.bsky.social · 29/01/2026
Ep8 of @OxfordFORE's Property Pod: What happens when entire cities go remote? New research from Olivier Denaisgarde shows office vacancy surged 2+ percentage points in remote-work areas of Paris - but the pattern suggests spatial reorganization, not uniform decline. #RealEstate 1/4
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Martin Schmalz @martincschmalz.bsky.social · 09/01/2026
Fertility and house prices. Do you think it's causal?
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Martin Schmalz @martincschmalz.bsky.social · 18/12/2025
Fantastic news for capital markets: the SEC appointed Josh White as Chief Economist. Having hired Josh at PCAOB to help increase the rigor of the economic analysis, my experience with him is such that I think the SEC and capital markets are extremely lucky to have him. www.sec.gov/newsroom/pre...
sec.gov
SEC.gov | Joshua T. White Named SEC Chief Economist
An official website of the United States government
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Martin Schmalz @martincschmalz.bsky.social · 07/12/2025
Investors now expect a discounted stream of future cash flows of ~25,000 USD per earthling. That ratio is growing faster than GDP per capita. Why?
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Martin Schmalz @martincschmalz.bsky.social · 21/11/2025
What happens when a grocery store tells its landlord "don't rent to my competitors"? New research from Camilla Schneier reveals these exclusive dealing contracts aren't what you'd expect. #RealEstate 1/4
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Martin Schmalz @martincschmalz.bsky.social · 17/11/2025
Vanguard, you're wasting my fees
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Martin Schmalz @martincschmalz.bsky.social · 14/11/2025
Referees are not becoming more polite
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Martin Schmalz @martincschmalz.bsky.social · 13/11/2025
Overlooked aspect of @ftc @afergusonftc interest in proxy advisers: coordination mechanism for common owners. ISS recommendations tend to support director interlocks, mergers, and the lessening of incentives to compete in high-CO firms cc @matt_levine papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
papers.ssrn.com
The Proxy Advice Industry and Common Owners' Coordination
High levels of common ownership may reduce firms’ incentives to compete. The empirical relevance of this concern is controversial, in part because there are no
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Martin Schmalz @martincschmalz.bsky.social · 12/11/2025
When Zillow shut down its iBuying program in 2021, questions arose about the viability of instant home buying. New research from So Hye Yoon (Princeton job market candidate) examines a key challenge: information asymmetry. Cloe Garnache hosts this episode of The Property Pod 👇
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Martin Schmalz @martincschmalz.bsky.social · 07/11/2025
Why don't landlords make green investments, even when they could boost property value? New episode The Property Pod with Brian Lancaster & Cameron LaPoint explores PACE financing. YT: youtu.be/-uV8MleO080 Spotify: open.spotify.com/episode/04gq... ➡️
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Martin Schmalz @martincschmalz.bsky.social · 06/11/2025
PSA: if you contact me about doing research under my guidance, do some research without my guidance first. For example, on the topic of what kind of research I could possibly provide guidance for.
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Martin Schmalz @martincschmalz.bsky.social · 28/10/2025
Yay! "The Term Structure of the Price of Variance Risk" is out in print -- thanks to the amazing co-authors -- Marianne Andries, Thomas Eisenbach, and R Jay Kahn. academic.oup.com/rof/advance-...
academic.oup.com
The Term Structure of the Price of Variance Risk
Abstract. We empirically investigate the term structure of variance risk pricing and how it varies over time. We estimate the aversion to variance risk in
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Martin Schmalz @martincschmalz.bsky.social · 28/10/2025
Elon @elonmusk is wrong here: youtu.be/MBzdfamdauI?... The "index funds" don't always vote with ISS & Glass Lewis recommendations. E.g. the Big 3 killed Peltz's pro-competition campaign at DuPont by voting against the proxy adviser's recommendation. ericposner.com/martin-schma...
youtu.be
Tesla Board Chair Denholm: Musk pay package less about compensation and more about voting influence
Tesla Board Chair Robyn Denholm joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss details of her letter to shareholders, what to expect from this year's annual meeting, details of CEO Elon Musk's pay package, Tesla's…
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Martin Schmalz @martincschmalz.bsky.social · 21/10/2025
Enron, Wirecard, Adler, Signa -- warum werden Investoren regelmäßig von Bilanzbetrügern überrascht? Warum versagt der Markt für Wirtschaftsprüfung? Und was könnten Regulierer und Aufsichtsräte tun, um das Marktversagen zu beheben? Mein Op-Ed in der FAZ: zeitung.faz.net/data/483/rea...
zeitung.faz.net
Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung
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Martin Schmalz @martincschmalz.bsky.social · 13/10/2025
I'll hire post-docs and research assistants for my ERC "DICACO" project on the social consequences of diversification. Email me your CV and short motivation if you think this might be for you. Details:
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Martin Schmalz @martincschmalz.bsky.social · 06/10/2025
Which market failure is it that prevents centralized exchange of information on invoice factoring? The efficiency gains from preventing (alleged) double pledging fiascos like First Brands seem clear. So why don't they get realized? And, yes, this *could* be done with #blockchain -- but why.
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Martin Schmalz @martincschmalz.bsky.social · 24/09/2025
Lots of discussion about disclosing genAI contributions in research. Are we sure we want to debate this before having concluded authors should disclose their direct and indirect *funding* sources, along with sanctions mechanisms for non-compliers?
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Martin Schmalz @martincschmalz.bsky.social · 23/09/2025
ICYMI Sen Blumenthal's report on KPMG's auditing of various banks is titled "This industry is a joke". That's not Blumenberg's personal opinion but a quote ***from an auditor***, from internal communications. www.hsgac.senate.gov/wp-content/u...
hsgac.senate.gov
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