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Martin Sauer

@martin-sauer.bsky.social
1K followers 203 following 543 posts
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Martin Sauer @martin-sauer.bsky.social · 20h
Über ein Vierteljahrhundert haben die Volksparteien die Ränder ihrer Anhängerschaft geräumt. In vier Bundesländern hält die AfD allein die Sperrminorität. Die Zeitenende-Studie untersucht, wie das möglich wurde, in vier Fassungen. Einstieg: durchd8.com/zeitenende-m...
durchd8.com
Zeitenende: eine Mitte, die sich leert
Über 40 Prozent wählen die Ränder, weil die Volksparteien ihre eigene Vertretung geräumt haben.
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Martin Sauer @martin-sauer.bsky.social · 06/09/2026
Alle schauen heute auf 42 Sitze. Die Zahl, die seit Monaten feststeht, ist 28: die Sperrminorität der AfD. Und den Ministerpräsidenten wählt heute niemand. Sachsen-Anhalt vor dem Ergebnis. Ein 🧵
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Martin Sauer @martin-sauer.bsky.social · 30/08/2026
Sollten wir den Flug nach Moskau bezahlen?
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Martin Sauer @martin-sauer.bsky.social · 29/08/2026
29. August und jeder hat es vergessen:
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Martin Sauer @martin-sauer.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
The assessment behind the CIA chief's Moscow trip describes a limited action below the conventional threshold, aimed at the Baltic states. What it would test is cohesion. Firepower is not in question.
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Martin Sauer @martin-sauer.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
Three of the four capabilities are the ones we named. NATO fighter aircraft roughly 150 to 100. Maritime reconnaissance 26 to 15. All eight refuelling tankers withdrawn. (NYT, June)
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Martin Sauer @martin-sauer.bsky.social · 28/07/2026
Four airspace violations. Three shootdowns. One expelled diplomat. One press statement from the alliance. Capability collective. Decision national. Consequence bilateral.
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Martin Sauer @martin-sauer.bsky.social · 23/07/2026
Last December’s Berlin talks were a structural episode, not a win-or-lose event. This week the same envoys, Witkoff and Kushner, moved to revive them. The question that decides what follows is not whether talks resume. It is who authors what they produce.
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Martin Sauer @martin-sauer.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
Poland now runs two versions of its own state at once. This month the government moved to strip forty-six court presidents and demote the Supreme Court’s chief justice to “acting head.” The president convened a council to write a new constitution instead.
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Martin Sauer @martin-sauer.bsky.social · 14/07/2026
NATO’s commander says European allies filled the US force-cut gaps “in a matter of weeks.” The same briefings put the enabler replacements at years, not weeks: bombers, anti-submarine warfare, ISR, air and missile defence. Readiness and capability are two different claims.
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Martin Sauer @martin-sauer.bsky.social · 09/07/2026
Ankara gave Ukraine the right to build its own Patriots. A real coup, and the cleanest proof of the gap the summit was meant to close: a production licence answers the 2030s, not Monday night. #NATO durchd8.substack.com/p/what-ankar...
durchd8.substack.com
What Ankara Delivered, and What It Didn’t
The summit’s biggest gift to Ukraine, the right to build its own Patriots, is also the clearest proof of the gap it was meant to close.
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Martin Sauer @martin-sauer.bsky.social · 08/07/2026
Ankara gave Ukraine its headline: the right to build Patriots. Trump — “we’ll give them the right to make Patriots, we’ll show them how to do it.” The strongest answer yet to Ukraine’s air-defence dependence, and the most future-dated thing a summit could hand over. #NATO
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Martin Sauer @martin-sauer.bsky.social · 07/07/2026
Ankara opened its defence-industry forum Tuesday with tens of billions in new contracts and a pledge to bring European and Canadian spending level with the United States. The Alliance is pricing the readiness gap as a budget problem. This week over Kyiv, the price showed up as time.
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Martin Sauer @martin-sauer.bsky.social · 06/07/2026
Overnight a Russian strike killed at least 15 in Kyiv, the second in a week; Ukraine’s air force says not one ballistic missile was intercepted. Asked in Ankara if it was a message to NATO, Rutte: “It shows how desperate Putin is.”
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Martin Sauer @martin-sauer.bsky.social · 06/07/2026
Ankara’s communiqué is already drafted. Reuters has read it. €140bn for Ukraine that repackages existing aid; an ironclad commitment reaffirmed. Every word true, and true is not the same as effective. Affirmation is what a summit produces. The decade clock keeps running.
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Martin Sauer @martin-sauer.bsky.social · 03/07/2026
Can a consensus alliance move at the speed the decade demands? The May diagnosis stands: the machinery functions; as a venue of decision it fails to appear. Durability = rigidity The decade clock is running.
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Martin Sauer @martin-sauer.bsky.social · 02/07/2026
#NATO The next incident on the eastern flank is interpreted before it happens. Sikorski warns of a staged pretext; every drone fragment forces 32 capitals to decide by consensus what it was. The campaign operates at the decision layer.
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Martin Sauer @martin-sauer.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
#NATO Europe’s answer to US retrenchment is a stronger European pillar inside the alliance, the shift Rutte calls NATO 3.0. The pillar reads the danger right and answers one layer above the constraint: sovereign governments that must still agree.
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Martin Sauer @martin-sauer.bsky.social · 30/06/2026
#NATO Rutte calls Ankara the summit of delivering, not pledging, with tens of billions in new defence contracts. A signed contract is not delivered capability. The summit moves from pledge to contract, both upstream of force.
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Martin Sauer @martin-sauer.bsky.social · 29/06/2026
#NATO now says some allies hit 5% in 2026, years ahead of schedule. On spending, fine. Capability cannot run ahead of schedule: industrial base, procurement, trained personnel are on a decade clock, not a budget cycle.
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Martin Sauer @martin-sauer.bsky.social · 25/06/2026
#NATO Plot Twist: Putin weiß genau, was er tut. Lettland warnt vor russischen Raketen und Drohnen gegen die Ostflanke. Gelesen wird das als Eskalation. Es ist Methode. durchd8.com/hybrid-warfa...
durchd8.com
Hybrid Warfare Is Already Working · DURCHD8
Russian hybrid warfare has already produced strategic effects — at decision-integrity level, prior to any 2026 pivot point. From DURCHD8.
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Martin Sauer @martin-sauer.bsky.social · 24/06/2026
#NATO Ankara’s headline is already written: the five percent pledge, delivered. Spending is not capability. The readiness gap sits below the spending line, and reform manages it without closing it. durchd8.com/surge-and-sh...
durchd8.com
Why More Defence Spending Won’t Fix Readiness
Defence spending is surging, yet the readiness gap persists. A plain-language essay on why the real risk is measuring the wrong thing — not spending too little.
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Martin Sauer @martin-sauer.bsky.social · 16/06/2026
Europe's most serious plan for defense with less of USA rebuilds the same machine one level down. #NATO ECFR's Making Defence European Again reads the danger right, then answers it with sovereign governments that must still agree. The delay moves. It doesn't go away. durchd8.com/europe-defen...
durchd8.com
Europe's Defence Plan, 2026: The Wrong Layer
ECFR's plan reads the danger right but rebuilds the same architecture one level down — easing friction without reaching the cause.
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Martin Sauer @martin-sauer.bsky.social · 10/06/2026
NATO's SecGen today names Ankara's priorities: "investing more in defence, accelerating industrial production." Both are inputs. Readiness is the output — two independent studies find the gap structural, and spending doesn't reach it: durchd8.substack.com/p/the-gap-be...
durchd8.substack.com
The Gap Beneath the Budget
NATO says Ankara will turn cash into combat-ready capabilities. Two independent studies explain why spending cannot reach the gap that remains.
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Martin Sauer @martin-sauer.bsky.social · 01/06/2026
#NATO Japan sent its first officers to NSATU in Wiesbaden this week - the command coordinating Ukraine aid. Called Euro-Atlantic/Indo-Pacific linkage. It widens the coordinating layer; it does not move the decision, which stays in capitals.
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Martin Sauer @martin-sauer.bsky.social · 29/05/2026
#NATO Vilnius opens against an eastern-flank drone-incident sequence: Romanian F-16 over Estonia, Vilnius Airport closed, Baltic presidents calling for Air Policing → full Air Defense Mission. Renewed Transatlantic Commitment, in contact with operational reality. durchd8.com/nato-coordin...
durchd8.com
NATO: An Alliance Functioning Without Deciding
NATO is materially stronger than at any time since the Cold War — and no longer able to decide together. A forensic structural reading, not advocacy.
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Martin Sauer @martin-sauer.bsky.social · 23/05/2026
#NATO - Helsingborg yesterday: Mark Rutte said "highly classified" three times in one press conference - Force Model, Poland-5000, Italy. Same hour: Article 5 reinforcement at unusual cadence. Decoupling between declared and operative layer is now public. durchd8.substack.com/p/nato-in-he...
durchd8.substack.com
NATO in Helsingborg, 22 May 2026: the Force Model moves behind OPSEC
Helsingborg, 22 May 2026: when the Force Model moves behind OPSEC
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Martin Sauer @martin-sauer.bsky.social · 22/05/2026
Helsingborg 09:50: Rubio escalated. Trump’s „disappointment with NATO” is now an Ankara-leader-level item - not a Foreign-Minister-level absorption. The conflict moves up the chain, not sideways. durchd8.com/nato-coordin...
durchd8.com
NATO: An Alliance Functioning Without Deciding
NATO is materially stronger than at any time since the Cold War — and no longer able to decide together. A forensic structural reading, not advocacy.
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Martin Sauer @martin-sauer.bsky.social · 21/05/2026
When NATO’s own Secretary General calls the US drawdown „a natural step,” the transition stops being an American demand and becomes the alliance’s vocabulary. Rutte yesterday, ahead of Helsingborg. durchd8.com/nato-coordin...
durchd8.com
NATO: An Alliance Functioning Without Deciding
NATO is materially stronger than at any time since the Cold War — and no longer able to decide together. A forensic structural reading, not advocacy.
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Martin Sauer @martin-sauer.bsky.social · 20/05/2026
Reuters last night: Pentagon to tell NATO this week it’s cutting the pool of US capabilities available in a crisis. The brigade meant for Poland - already prepared - was cancelled from above, not from below. durchd8.com/nato-coordin...
durchd8.com
NATO: An Alliance Functioning Without Deciding
NATO is materially stronger than at any time since the Cold War — and no longer able to decide together. A forensic structural reading, not advocacy.
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Martin Sauer @martin-sauer.bsky.social · 20/05/2026
Brussels yesterday, 20:13 UTC. Reuters: Pentagon to reduce its #NATO Force Model contribution - the internal table, not the press release. The diagnosis arrives at a planning instrument. A note: www.linkedin.com/pulse/nato-c...
linkedin.com
NATO Coordination, 19 May 2026 — when the rhetoric arrives at the planning table
Reuters reports a Pentagon move that does not change spending, doctrine or declared cohesion. It changes the table on which the alliance writes down what it can call on in a crisis.
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Martin Sauer @martin-sauer.bsky.social · 17/06/2025
#Iran – the US war machine is kicking into gear?
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Martin Sauer @martin-sauer.bsky.social · 24/04/2025
Eine andere Perspektive:
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Martin Sauer @martin-sauer.bsky.social · 24/04/2025
Einfache Wahrheiten.
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Martin Sauer @martin-sauer.bsky.social · 21/02/2025
Just a friendly reminder...
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Martin Sauer @martin-sauer.bsky.social · 21/02/2025
Wenn Du erkennst, wohin die Politik, die Du mitgestaltet hast, führt: www.n-tv.de/politik/Was-...
n-tv.de
"Was Donald Trump dort macht, ist Verrat"
Donald Trump bezeichnet den ukrainischen Präsidenten Selenskyj als "Diktator" und bekommt dafür Lob aus Moskau. Für Vizekanzler Robert Habeck ist das "Verrat". Europa müsse sich eigene Formate zur Unt...
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Martin Sauer @martin-sauer.bsky.social · 14/02/2025
@drfranksauer.bsky.social bietet hier so viel Wahrheit auf einmal, dass man den Satz wohl noch in 20 Jahren hört und danach in Geschichtsbüchern findet. "Putin wird den Tölpel #Trump an der Nase durch die Manege führen." PS: Nasenring hätte wohl noch besser gepasst. www.n-tv.de/politik/Nach...
n-tv.de
"Putin wird den Tölpel Trump an der Nase durch die Manege führen"
Heute startet in München die Sicherheitskonferenz - um sie herum brechen Gewissheiten der letzten Jahrzehnte einfach weg. Experte Frank Sauer wirft für ntv.de ein Schlaglicht auf die Lage.
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Martin Sauer @martin-sauer.bsky.social · 14/02/2025
@nicolange.bsky.social - Is there a reason?
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Martin Sauer @martin-sauer.bsky.social · 14/02/2025
Scheidewege der Geschichte bei der @munsecconf.bsky.social: 2016 - der letzte Auftritt von Russlands Außenminister Sergej Lawrow auf #MSC2016. 2025 - @VP Vance auf #MSC2025.
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Reposted by Martin Sauer
Vassili Golod @golod.bsky.social · 14/02/2025
Selenskyj zeigt sich in München offen für Gespräche über ein Kriegsende. Er räumt ein, dass Trump nicht bereit sei, die Ukraine in die NATO aufzunehmen. Grundlage aller Gespräche über Sicherheitsgarantien sei das internationale Recht. Das Ziel müsse sein, Putin aufzuhalten.
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Martin Sauer @martin-sauer.bsky.social · 02/02/2025
Zur Erinnerung:
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Martin Sauer @martin-sauer.bsky.social · 28/01/2025
Ach ja, Skynet ist eigentlich schon da und "KI-Systeme umgehen die Abschaltung". Das werden wir genauso gut wie die #Klimakrise und #Ukraine meistern... 100%. #LLM www.scinexx.de/news/technik...
scinexx.de
Künstliche Intelligenz klont sich selbst
Keine Science-Fiction mehr? Es gibt offenbar schon KI-Systeme, die sich selbst klonen und verbreiten können, wie ein Experiment enthüllt. Zwei
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Martin Sauer @martin-sauer.bsky.social · 28/01/2025
Dieser #Wahlkampf ist abstossend.
media.tenor.com
a bartender pours a glass of whiskey from a bottle
ALT: a bartender pours a glass of whiskey from a bottle
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Martin Sauer @martin-sauer.bsky.social · 21/01/2025
Ever wondered how this second @realDonaldTrump term might rock transatlantic ties, spark new crises, and keep diplomats awake at night? Buckle up. I’ve mapped five plausible (almost) worst-case scenarios you won’t want to ignore. #Geopolitics #Trump2025 #ForeignPolicy
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Martin Sauer @martin-sauer.bsky.social · 04/01/2025
@derspiegel schreibt einen Artikel über #Mützenich und sagt indirekt, durch die Blume: „Mützenich erzählt Unfug über Robert #Habeck.“ Mal was Neues… www.spiegel.de/politik/deut...
spiegel.de
Rolf Mützenich wirft Robert Habeck »holzschnittartigen Überbietungswettbewerb« vor
In einem Gespräch mit dem SPIEGEL fordert Kanzlerkandidat Habeck, 3,5 Prozent der deutschen Wirtschaftsleistung in Verteidigung zu investieren. SPD-Fraktionschef Rolf Mützenich ist irritiert.
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Reposted by Martin Sauer
Philipp Kurowski @phikuro.bsky.social · 30/12/2024
Man Kann Kriminalität Nicht Abschieben. - Fragt den Kriminologen Eures Vertrauens, fragt die Wissenschaft, fragt euren gesunden Menschenverstand. Es funktioniert nicht. Und ist darüberhinaus rechtlich problematisch und moralisch falsch. Aber vor allem: Es funktioniert nicht. Wirklich nicht.
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Martin Sauer @martin-sauer.bsky.social · 09/12/2024
Game Over Player #Assad.
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Martin Sauer @martin-sauer.bsky.social · 30/11/2024
„Ich bin nicht irrelevant, nur weil Angela Merkel mich nicht in ihrem Buch erwähnt hat. Ich war vielmehr so unfassbar gut, so dass es weder Angela Merkel noch Beate Baumann gelang, meine Bedeutung für sie angemessen in Worte zu fassen“ #GrößtesterGeneralWoJeGab #GröGeWoJeGa
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Martin Sauer @martin-sauer.bsky.social · 29/11/2024
Klare Worte für die #Politik. Langsam wird es mehr - sehr gut. Hier am Beispiel #Spahn, #CDU.
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Martin Sauer @martin-sauer.bsky.social · 28/11/2024
About time. #Russia. Was für Anzeichen gibt es, was sind Optionen von #Russland?
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