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Reposted by Martin Aragoneses

Kurt MIT-shock-man @sorrytobekurt.bsky.social · 02/01/2025

🚨Call for Papers🚨 The next SED meeting will be held June 26-28, 2025, in Copenhagen! Submit your paper here: editorialexpress.com/cgi-bin/conf... before Feb 15 Julieta Caunedo and I are the Program Chairs

editorialexpress.com

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Reposted by Martin Aragoneses

Ivan Werning @ivanwerning.bsky.social · 12/12/2024

Tom Sargent honoris causa at di Tella University in Buenos Aires.

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Martin Aragoneses @maragoneses.bsky.social · 22/02/2024

#econsky I'm thrilled to announce I'm moving to Paris!🇫🇷 I've accepted an offer to join @insead.bsky.social as an Assistant Professor of Finance I'm so grateful to my advisors, friends, and family who helped me navigate challenging times. So excited to join a wonderful group!

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Reposted by Martin Aragoneses

Khoa @khoavuumn.bsky.social · 11/12/2023

Twitter is now full of rightwing nuts and EJMR mentions. I know it was going down hill but this is probably the last straw.

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Martin Aragoneses @maragoneses.bsky.social · 11/12/2023

Twitter really has gone down in quality quite a bit… please don’t stop the memes, we need some laughs during these times!

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Martin Aragoneses @maragoneses.bsky.social · 04/12/2023

#econsky 📉📈 Please help me share my JMP titled * The Firm Life Cycle Origins of the Aggregate Investment Puzzle * 🧵 above + abstract + link to paper website here: sites.harvard.edu/martin-arago...

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Martin Aragoneses @maragoneses.bsky.social · 04/12/2023

let me end JMP 🧵 w/ optimistic note Since 2010 US Census shows startup resurgence! Even accelerated thru COVID!! Why? Has startup deficit ended? I'm investigating this... JMP shows startup surging across OECD countries along with investment / profits like in my model

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Martin Aragoneses @maragoneses.bsky.social · 04/12/2023

JMP 🧵 9/ In many models profitable firms invest more In life cycle models, startups shifts GDP from YOUNG firms front-loading investment to grow to OLD firms back-loading profits rewarding past investment Generating ⬆️ profits ⬇️ investment in macro data!

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Martin Aragoneses @maragoneses.bsky.social · 04/12/2023

JMP 🧵 8/ S&D economics I solved the life cycle investment model in closed-form! startup rates shifted *both* supply & demand S: yes, r* should have stimulated I/Y but... D: firm aging depressed investment demand even more => "unintuitive" r & I/Y covariance

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Martin Aragoneses @maragoneses.bsky.social · 04/12/2023

JMP 🧵 7/ fewer startups => lower rates r* Why did interest rates not stimulate investment? Because startup rate had 2 effects PE: Firm aging, depressing investment I/Y GE: Slower consumption growth, depressing r* Model fits data best when firms are insensitive to r*

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Martin Aragoneses @maragoneses.bsky.social · 04/12/2023

JMP 🧵 6/ life cycle origins of the investment puzzle Since 80s startup activity collapsed... firms got older! Investment declined despite rising profits in macro data Why didn't profitability stimulate investment? Life cycle economics: Higher profits reward past investment!

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Martin Aragoneses @maragoneses.bsky.social · 04/12/2023

JMP 🧵 5/ life cycle origins of investment I find the investment puzzle is actually not so puzzling... once the model experiences historical startup rates! From WWII to mid-70s: Startup rate Peak ~Microsoft/Apple launched firms turned younger! and investment/GDP boomed!

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Martin Aragoneses @maragoneses.bsky.social · 04/12/2023

JMP 🧵 4/ neoclassical theory of the investment puzzle I add investment to my favorite model (Hopenhayn '92) + force it to match US Census firm life cycle dynamics! How? I propose a calibration method I found useful: Matching the terms in the formula I used for empirics!

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Martin Aragoneses @maragoneses.bsky.social · 04/12/2023

JMP 🧵 3/ missing investment boom Literature tried to come up with "micro" reasons why firms invest less But... Census shows firm-level investment given age boomed! Do you think business/VC world think investment fell? No Firm aging likely made macro fall despite micro boom

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Martin Aragoneses @maragoneses.bsky.social · 04/12/2023

JMP 🧵 2/ firm aging depressed macro investment! Firm aging predicts puzzling Investment/GDP decline Why? Confidential Census micro data shows: A. economy has shifted from young to old firms B. older firms invest less intensely, but more profitable? I build a formula with A + B

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Martin Aragoneses @maragoneses.bsky.social · 04/12/2023

JMP 🧵1/ startups matter for macro! I spent years fascinated by a missing investment puzzle: Why did macro investment ⬇️ if profitability ⬆️? I found firms' investment boomed! Boom missing in macro data because: ⬇️startup rate ⬆️firm age #econsky 📉📈 please share: sites.harvard.edu/martin-arago...

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Reposted by Martin Aragoneses

Aaron Reichlin-Melnick @reichlinmelnick.bsky.social · 20/11/2023

Friendly reminder that if you are new to Bluesky, you should go into your settings and turn off the setting that hides replies with fewer than 2-3 likes. The site is still small enough that keeping that setting on means you will miss a LOT of content you likely wanted to see.

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Martin Aragoneses @maragoneses.bsky.social · 16/11/2023

Hi #econsky first post here! I’m a Harvard job market candidate working on macro with firm dynamics

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