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MarkMan

@madmanmark84.bsky.social
518 followers 202 following 4K posts

Just another older white guy, 1st-gen college in a purple state & family

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MarkMan @madmanmark84.bsky.social · 7h
It's interesting that you invoke Lincoln. Because I was just talking to a friend the other day about some parallels between the first two years of Trump's term & the first two of Buchanan's. But Buchanan's remains far worse, at least so far. Let's hope that Trump'd damage doesn't exceed Buchanan's!
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MarkMan @madmanmark84.bsky.social · 8h
Trump isn't even *pretending* to care about *actually* doing presidential duties. He just wants voters to *think* he is. Trump said aid is "approved," but he hasn't even bothered to *inform* the current governor, Evers, so he can start planning.
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MarkMan @madmanmark84.bsky.social · 14h
People on both extremes place a lot more value on performative virtue signaling than competence and actions
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MarkMan @madmanmark84.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
Gawd. It was already hard enough being an American abroad, without this pompous asswipe spewing this shite, and acting like countries like Greece should be grateful we're "continuing their 'tradition.'" 🤮🤮
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MarkMan @madmanmark84.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
That's logically equivalent to saying automobiles are evil because the guy in Charlottesville ran down a woman with one 🙄
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MarkMan @madmanmark84.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
How can ANYONE in 2026 trust Meta with ALL their personal data? Have that many people not been paying attention?!
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MarkMan @madmanmark84.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
Feels like a Jenga tower ... one well-placed push by Iran knocks it over. Unfortunately we have a President who appears to only think of best-case outcomes, and never contingency
The system relies on one set of tankers shuttling through the Strait of Hormuz, running the gauntlet past Iranian attacks, before transferring their cargoes to another group of ships waiting in the Gulf of Oman. 

The increased flow of oil has eased pressure on benchmark oil prices, with Brent crude trading below $98 a barrel in London on Tuesday. 

But the method was also “very inefficient”, according to Hardy, since ships are tied up waiting for cargoes for several days or weeks at a time, reducing the pool of tankers available elsewhere. 

The resulting shortage has sent freight rates soaring and made it increasingly difficult for traders and refiners to calculate the delivered cost of crude.  

“It is creating a lot of stress for everybody because nobody really knows, to the nearest $2, $3, $4 [a barrel], how much their shipping costs are going to be,” said Hardy. “That creates a difficult set of decisions for people to make day to day.”

Refiners unable to charter ships, or unwilling to pay sky-high rates, are aggressively competing for supplies that are easier to deliver. One oil executive said cargoes of North Sea oil were selling for $145 a barrel last week. 
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MarkMan @madmanmark84.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
"might not be what you think?' Anyone paying attention in any macroecon class in the last 50 years would think this.
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MarkMan @madmanmark84.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
I'm still positive about the long-term AI trend overall, but even I'd agree that the AMD valuation in particular is ... quite frothy?
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MarkMan @madmanmark84.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
In case you actually believe what you are writing here, the only identified reason I've ssen for these chips are awaiting installation - and even then, not long enough to "collect dust" - is because set up of power, cooling, and data center space takes time. If you believe I'm wrong, cite a source.
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MarkMan @madmanmark84.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
If there is not expected ROI and/or useful life for CAPEX spend, then yes. But still a very open Q (IMO). I'd say more "unhelpful" than "misleading."
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MarkMan @madmanmark84.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
Is there anything new from what was announced 6 months ago (see link below)? Is this just saying that the proposal is finally moving ahead? Anyone?
theguardian.com
US moves to soften capital rules: ‘Big banks can declare mission accomplished’
Fed officials expected to lower capital requirements for banks such as Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase by 4.8%
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MarkMan @madmanmark84.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
"Project Agincourt" for AUTOWARCOM? Who comes up with this stuff? Could be Shakespearean reference (Henry V), but gonna guess it's more historical, how Welsh longbow tech helped England defeat a more traditionally formidable force at that battle. But Ukr is already England in this analogy, not US
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MarkMan @madmanmark84.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
I'm just sharing data. Take or leave it as you wish.
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MarkMan @madmanmark84.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
The deficit change is being driven by increased imports. Not reduced exports. Mostly chips. In fact, so far in 2026 the US is exporting more in dollar value over 2025.
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MarkMan @madmanmark84.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
No, it was at 80% the last week of September, according to a recognized tracker - read my other reply
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MarkMan @madmanmark84.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
I suspect they may have actually been referring to this other article, although it's still a mischaracterization www.wsj.com/world/middle...
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MarkMan @madmanmark84.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
I won't speak ill of the dead. Best to leave it at that.
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MarkMan @madmanmark84.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
Are you saying the reported 4% GDP growth last quarter is a lie? Even if it is, that's the US BLS that you'd be criticizing. Not FT
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MarkMan @madmanmark84.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
Been around long enough to know the claim it's "an unprecedented phenomenon" that "on days when the stock market goes up, nearly half of the stocks go down" is BS Off the top of my head, not only was this often true in the dot-com era, I'm pretty sure it was also only about 3 years ago w/ orig Mag7
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MarkMan @madmanmark84.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
Now I'm even more confused what the relevance is to France. France didn't even have the equivalent of US IRAs until six years ago (the PER). And, again, all pensions (public or private sector) are government-administered.
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MarkMan @madmanmark84.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
In France it's the government that runs pension systems for private company employees, not the companies themselves (billionaires) No offense, but the theory French bond rates are high because pedophile billionaires are punishing it for Epstein reasons is an almost "QAnon level" conspiracy theory.
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MarkMan @madmanmark84.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
Or "it could have room to get worse before it blows up"
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MarkMan @madmanmark84.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
I follow this story in France more closely than most. No, I don't understand this at all. Where are you getting this? France is in trouble because they've an unsustainable national pension system, & when Macron tried to start fixing it a few years ago the shortsighted public wouldn't let him.
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MarkMan @madmanmark84.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
some good discussion on his previous post on this last thursday
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MarkMan @madmanmark84.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
I assume NDX outperform is driven by AI-related trade. At some point this bleeds from being a story of "follow the trend" to "the risk/reward comparison suggests considering switching horses." When that happens is the $64k question. Maybe it already has? 🤷
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MarkMan @madmanmark84.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
I love this guest essay in the NYT about the King James Bible. Even for those not of a Christian religion, I've long looked at the KJB as standing as a great piece of literature all on its own. So heartening to read that Gen Z is appreciating it too - "OK, boomers," take THAT!
nytimes.com
Opinion | Why My Gen Z Students Are Fascinated by the King James Bible (Gift Article)
The King James Version is a master class in cooperative intellectual struggle.
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MarkMan @madmanmark84.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
In at least a couple ways, she was the next Steve Jobs? Both had notably amoral business ethics. Jobs was just successful at leveraging them to a long-term profitable outcome.
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MarkMan @madmanmark84.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
I predict that 50 years from now, anyone having much familiarity with US history will instantly know this is a 2026 issue, just from looking at the names on the cover lol
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MarkMan @madmanmark84.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
pps. I do also recall reading some time ago that the personal savings rate trends may be distorted because most of the outsized boomer demographic has entered retirement (a period of spending, not saving - or for those without enough savings, taking on debt?)
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MarkMan @madmanmark84.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
ps. the left axis units visual exaggerates the change. The increase from the covid peak (~860) to now (~1080) is ~25% This is actually lower than the cumulative inflation since that time (almost 30%). So in real terms, credit card debt is actually lower than it was March 2020. "Lies, damn lies ..."
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MarkMan @madmanmark84.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
Good graph but it looks like more than a year out of date. I just went to the Fed site and generated a new one including most recent data. Things have basically stablized since, not much better or worse Link to bookmark to see most recent 10 years live: fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1ZhUd
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MarkMan @madmanmark84.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
I'd forgotten that Presidents and their spouses can look like they enjoy being together
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MarkMan @madmanmark84.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
Some of the words you say do not exist: Kleptocrat Recreant Malfeasor Turncoat
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MarkMan @madmanmark84.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
Yeah, it's because I knew their true history that I had even less respect for Graham than Trump himself.
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MarkMan @madmanmark84.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
Not just New York. Also, I'm older so I can remember how odd couples like Reagan and Tip O'Neill got on. Even Obama and John Boehner had moments. People forget how completely and throroughly Trump poisoned things after he came down that gold escalator.
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MarkMan @madmanmark84.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Charles Blow Tom Friedman Michelle Goldberg David Rothkopf (even in his book title) Sorry if nitpicky, but as a literal fact Trump's *not* "committing treason" - the legal defn requires there be a state of war. I don't think he's an Iranian agent. Not even the Rosenbergs were charged with "treason"
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MarkMan @madmanmark84.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Apparently you can
snopes.com
Did RFK Jr. say 'infertility is genetic'? Here's the truth
The health secretary has been raising the alarm on a so-called male fertility crisis, but there was no evidence he originated this quote.
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MarkMan @madmanmark84.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Slava Ukraini! I hope introduction of this offensive threat at scale brings Russian interest in *sincere* negotiations, so your people can finally start to see an end in sight to this nightmare. But perhaps that needs the introduction of the FP-9 as well, as it seems only Moscow matters to Putin?
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MarkMan @madmanmark84.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Which is the exact way you said we should view Keynes' own 1930 essay (and I agreed) But accepting the essay (w/ far more content than the video) shouldn't be expected to represent his full spectrum of views, but fault the video for not - I'm just lost what you think a correct 5 min video SHOULD be
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MarkMan @madmanmark84.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
What are you referring to about Danforth? If you are referring to his support of John Wood in 2022 against Schmitt, that was another republican, and in GOP primary, not the general. And what specifically is imminent enough to "wait" for him to speak? Neither is up for reelection in 2026 😕❓
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MarkMan @madmanmark84.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
As a former resident of St Louis County I'm sadly very conscious that the Post-Dispatch is not representative of wider Missouri opinion 😞
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MarkMan @madmanmark84.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
To be fair, the average person ALWAYS feels that way about technological change. I still remember a college prof talking about persistant face of human psychology 30 years ago, citing ancient Greek "Works and Days" (by Hesiod, 7th century BC contemporary of Homer)
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MarkMan @madmanmark84.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
As a resident of a northern state, it immediately jumps out to me that this graph isn't being normalized for the scheduled switch from summer to winter blends. Parts of this regular annual seasonal decline & then spike is intentional (planned).
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MarkMan @madmanmark84.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Or the French public has to face financial realities and not slip into immediate kneejerk opposition to entitlement reforms like they did when Macron tried a few years ago. I'd love to invest more in the EU, diversify from US more, but I'm afraid to touch it until that starts happening.
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MarkMan @madmanmark84.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
France's trendline was already for worse than US right now. Debt to GDP may still be slightly less, but outlook has been far worse for a looooong time; spending deficit to GDP ration is ~2x worse, and revenue sources are already near maxed out (unlike US)
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MarkMan @madmanmark84.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
"now?" Give Macron credit, he tried to do something to forestall/mitigate it with things like his pension and retirement age tweaks, but the masses were too short-sighted to understand the motivations
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MarkMan @madmanmark84.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
details
bnnbloomberg.ca
‘The business case is very strong’: Canada designates new West Coast pipeline first project of national interest
The Canadian government is designating a proposal for a new oil pipeline to the West Coast the first-ever project of national interest under Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Building Canada Act.
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MarkMan @madmanmark84.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
ps. the only potential evidence of "spine" I've glimpsed in Trump's 2nd term appointment is John Ratcliffe at CIA, specifically around Ukraine and NATO, but even there it's subtle and limited, he's more like water trying to flow around the rock, vs actively trying to move it.
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MarkMan @madmanmark84.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
I think the biggest takeaway is that Trump explicitly chose these people *because* they lacked that part of their spine. It's not just some coincidence.
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