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Midterm forecast 10/6 Majority chances: - House: Dem 70% - Senate: GOP 60% Expected seats with 90% CI: - House: Dem 228 seats (204-259), GOP 207 seats (176-231) - Senate: GOP 50 seats (46-55), Dem 49 seats (45-54) Full forecast: electionstatsheet.com

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Mac Tan @mactan.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

Midterm forecast 10/5 Majority chances: - House: Dem 73% - Senate: GOP 57% Expected seats with 90% CI: - House: Dem 229 seats (205-259), GOP 206 seats (176-230) - Senate: GOP 50 seats (45-55), Dem 49 seats (45-55) Full forecast: electionstatsheet.com

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Mac Tan @mactan.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Midterm forecast 9/30 Majority chances: - House: Dem 77% - Senate: Dem 50% Expected seats with 90% CI: - House: Dem 232 seats (206-265), GOP 203 seats (170-229) - Senate: Dem 50 seats (45-55), GOP 49 seats (45-54) Full forecast: electionstatsheet.com

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Mac Tan @mactan.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Midterm forecast 9/29 Majority chances: - House: Dem 78% - Senate: Dem 53% Expected seats with 90% CI: - House: Dem 232 seats (207-264), GOP 203 seats (171-228) - Senate: Dem 51 seats (46-55), GOP 49 seats (45-54) Full forecast: electionstatsheet.com

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Mac Tan @mactan.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Midterm forecast 9/28 Majority chances: - House: Dem 68% - Senate: GOP 61% Expected seats with 90% CI: - House: Dem 227 seats (202-260), GOP 208 seats (175-233) - Senate: GOP 50 seats (45-55), Dem 50 seats (45-54) Full forecast: electionstatsheet.com

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Mac Tan @mactan.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

Midterm forecast 9/25 Majority chances: - House: Dem 69% - Senate: GOP 61% Expected seats with 90% CI: - House: Dem 227 seats (202-260), GOP 208 seats (175-233) - Senate: GOP 50 seats (45-55), Dem 50 seats (45-54) Full forecast: electionstatsheet.com

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Mac Tan @mactan.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

Midterm forecast 9/24 Majority chances: - House: Dem 69% - Senate: GOP 58% Expected seats with 90% CI: - House: Dem 228 seats (203-261), GOP 207 seats (174-232) - Senate: GOP 50 seats (45-55), Dem 50 seats (45-54) Full forecast: electionstatsheet.com

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Mac Tan @mactan.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

Midterm forecast 9/23 Majority chances: - House: Dem 68% - Senate: GOP 55% Expected seats with 90% CI: - House: Dem 227 seats (203-260), GOP 208 seats (175-232) - Senate: GOP 50 seats (45-55), Dem 50 seats (45-54) Full forecast: electionstatsheet.com

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Mac Tan @mactan.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

Midterm forecast 9/22 Majority chances: - House: Dem 69% - Senate: GOP 53% Expected seats with 90% CI: - House: Dem 228 seats (203-261), GOP 207 seats (174-232) - Senate: GOP 50 seats (45-55), Dem 50 seats (45-54) Full forecast: electionstatsheet.com

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Mac Tan @mactan.bsky.social · 20/09/2026

Midterm forecast 9/19 Majority chances: - House: Dem 73% - Senate: GOP 51% Expected seats with 90% CI: - House: Dem 229 seats (205-261), GOP 206 seats (174-230) - Senate: GOP 50 seats (45-55), Dem 50 seats (45-55) Full forecast: electionstatsheet.com

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Mac Tan @mactan.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

Midterm forecast 9/18 Majority chances: - House: Dem 76% - Senate: GOP 50% Expected seats with 90% CI: - House: Dem 232 seats (205-267), GOP 203 seats (168-230) - Senate: GOP 50 seats (45-55), Dem 50 seats (45-54) Full forecast: electionstatsheet.com

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Mac Tan @mactan.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

Midterm forecast 9/16 Majority chances: - House: Dem 67% - Senate: GOP 73% Expected seats with 90% CI: - House: Dem 227 seats (202-261), GOP 208 seats (174-233) - Senate: GOP 51 seats (47-55), Dem 49 seats (45-53) Full forecast: electionstatsheet.com

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Mac Tan @mactan.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

Midterm forecast 9/15 Majority chances: - House: Dem 63% - Senate: GOP 72% Expected seats with 90% CI: - House: Dem 225 seats (201-258), GOP 211 seats (177-234) - Senate: GOP 51 seats (47-55), Dem 49 seats (45-53) Full forecast: electionstatsheet.com

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Mac Tan @mactan.bsky.social · 12/09/2026

Midterm forecast 9/12 Majority chances: - House: Dem 62% - Senate: GOP 73% Expected seats with 90% CI: - House: Dem 224 seats (201-257), GOP 211 seats (178-234) - Senate: GOP 51 seats (47-56), Dem 49 seats (44-53) Full forecast: electionstatsheet.com

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Mac Tan @mactan.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

Midterm forecast 9/11 Majority chances: - House: Dem 60% - Senate: GOP 73% Expected seats with 90% CI: - House: Dem 224 seats (201-255), GOP 211 seats (180-234) - Senate: GOP 51 seats (47-55), Dem 49 seats (45-53) Full forecast: electionstatsheet.com

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Mac Tan @mactan.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

Midterm forecast 9/10 Majority chances: - House: Dem 58% - Senate: GOP 79% Expected seats with 90% CI: - House: Dem 223 seats (199-253), GOP 212 seats (182-236) - Senate: GOP 52 seats (48-56), Dem 48 seats (44-52) Full forecast: electionstatsheet.com

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Mac Tan @mactan.bsky.social · 09/09/2026

Midterm forecast 9/9 Majority chances: - House: Dem 53% - Senate: GOP 83% Expected seats with 90% CI: - House: Dem 221 seats (199-251), GOP 213 seats (184-236) - Senate: GOP 52 seats (48-56), Dem 48 seats (44-52) Full forecast: electionstatsheet.com

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Mac Tan @mactan.bsky.social · 08/09/2026

Midterm forecast 9/8 Majority chances: - House: Dem 54% - Senate: GOP 82% Expected seats with 90% CI: - House: Dem 222 seats (199-252), GOP 213 seats (183-236) - Senate: GOP 52 seats (48-56), Dem 48 seats (44-52) Full forecast: electionstatsheet.com

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Mac Tan @mactan.bsky.social · 05/09/2026

Midterm forecast 9/5 Majority chances: - House: Dem 55% - Senate: GOP 79% Expected seats with 90% CI: - House: Dem 222 seats (198-252), GOP 213 seats (183-237) - Senate: GOP 52 seats (47-56), Dem 48 seats (44-52) Full forecast: electionstatsheet.com

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Mac Tan @mactan.bsky.social · 01/09/2026

Midterm forecast 9/1 Majority chances: - House: Dem 57% - Senate: GOP 70% Expected seats with 90% CI: - House: Dem 223 seats (199-254), GOP 212 seats (181-236) - Senate: GOP 51 seats (47-56), Dem 48 seats (44-53) Full forecast: electionstatsheet.com

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Mac Tan @mactan.bsky.social · 31/08/2026

Midterm forecast 8/31 Majority chances: - House: Dem 57% - Senate: GOP 70% Expected seats with 90% CI: - House: Dem 223 seats (199-255), GOP 212 seats (180-236) - Senate: GOP 51 seats (47-56), Dem 48 seats (44-53) Full forecast: electionstatsheet.com

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Mac Tan @mactan.bsky.social · 29/08/2026

Midterm forecast 8/29 Majority chances: - House: Dem 57% - Senate: GOP 72% Expected seats with 90% CI: - House: Dem 223 seats (199-255), GOP 212 seats (180-236) - Senate: GOP 51 seats (47-56), Dem 48 seats (44-53) Full forecast: electionstatsheet.com

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Mac Tan @mactan.bsky.social · 28/08/2026

Midterm forecast 8/28 Majority chances: - House: Dem 53% - Senate: GOP 77% Expected seats with 90% CI: - House: Dem 220 seats (195-252), GOP 214 seats (183-240) - Senate: GOP 52 seats (47-57), Dem 48 seats (43-53) Full forecast: electionstatsheet.com

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Mac Tan @mactan.bsky.social · 27/08/2026

Midterm forecast 8/27 Majority chances: - House: Dem 53% - Senate: GOP 77% Expected seats with 90% CI: - House: Dem 221 seats (197-251), GOP 214 seats (184-238) - Senate: GOP 52 seats (47-57), Dem 48 seats (43-53) Full forecast: electionstatsheet.com

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Mac Tan @mactan.bsky.social · 27/08/2026

Midterm forecast 8/26 Majority chances: - House: Dem 57% - Senate: GOP 71% Expected seats with 90% CI: - House: Dem 222 seats (199-254), GOP 213 seats (181-236) - Senate: GOP 51 seats (47-56), Dem 49 seats (44-53) Full forecast: electionstatsheet.com

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Mac Tan @mactan.bsky.social · 26/08/2026

Midterm forecast 8/25 Majority chances: - House: Dem 57% - Senate: GOP 71% Expected seats with 90% CI: - House: Dem 222 seats (199-254), GOP 213 seats (181-236) - Senate: GOP 51 seats (47-56), Dem 49 seats (44-53) Full forecast: electionstatsheet.com

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Mac Tan @mactan.bsky.social · 26/08/2026

Also worth noting that GCV does affect both my House and Senate forecasts, and if this prediction is correct then we should see my forecast converging with everyone else's if we get closer and closer to Election Day with GCV polls staying as they are

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Mac Tan @mactan.bsky.social · 26/08/2026

Since this pattern shows up for both houses I suspect that it's to do with how we're treating the generic ballot. In particular, I think I might be putting more uncertainty on the GCV than the markets and most other forecasts, so I have more scenarios where Republicans pull out the win

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Mac Tan @mactan.bsky.social · 24/08/2026

Midterm forecast 8/24 Majority chances: - House: Dem 56% - Senate: GOP 71% Expected seats with 90% CI: - House: Dem 222 seats (198-254), GOP 213 seats (181-237) - Senate: GOP 51 seats (47-56), Dem 49 seats (44-53) Full forecast: electionstatsheet.com

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Mac Tan @mactan.bsky.social · 22/08/2026

Midterm forecast 8/22 Majority chances: - House: Dem 57% - Senate: GOP 71% Expected seats with 90% CI: - House: Dem 223 seats (199-255), GOP 212 seats (180-236) - Senate: GOP 51 seats (47-56), Dem 49 seats (44-53) Full forecast: electionstatsheet.com

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Mac Tan @mactan.bsky.social · 22/08/2026

Midterm forecast 8/21 Majority chances: - House: Dem 57% - Senate: GOP 71% Expected seats with 90% CI: - House: Dem 223 seats (199-255), GOP 212 seats (180-236) - Senate: GOP 51 seats (47-56), Dem 49 seats (44-53) Full forecast: electionstatsheet.com

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Mac Tan @mactan.bsky.social · 20/08/2026

Midterm forecast 8/20 Majority chances: - House: Dem 58% - Senate: GOP 71% Expected seats with 90% CI: - House: Dem 223 seats (199-255), GOP 212 seats (180-236) - Senate: GOP 51 seats (46-56), Dem 49 seats (44-53) Full forecast: electionstatsheet.com

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Mac Tan @mactan.bsky.social · 19/08/2026

Midterm forecast 8/19 Majority chances: - House: Dem 58% - Senate: GOP 72% Expected seats with 90% CI: - House: Dem 223 seats (199-255), GOP 212 seats (180-236) - Senate: GOP 51 seats (46-56), Dem 49 seats (44-53) Full forecast: electionstatsheet.com

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Mac Tan @mactan.bsky.social · 19/08/2026

Hang on that’s a typo, that should be like a 70%

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Mac Tan @mactan.bsky.social · 17/08/2026

Midterm forecast 8/17 Majority chances: - House: Dem 60% - Senate: GOP 70% Expected seats with 90% CI: - House: Dem 224 seats (199-256), GOP 211 seats (179-236) - Senate: GOP 51 seats (46-56), Dem 49 seats (44-53) Full forecast: electionstatsheet.com

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Mac Tan @mactan.bsky.social · 16/08/2026

Midterm forecast 8/16 Majority chances: - House: Dem 61% - Senate: GOP 69% Expected seats with 90% CI: - House: Dem 225 seats (200-257), GOP 210 seats (178-235) - Senate: GOP 51 seats (46-56), Dem 49 seats (44-53) Full forecast: electionstatsheet.com

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Mac Tan @mactan.bsky.social · 16/08/2026

Midterm forecast 8/15 Majority chances: - House: Dem 62% - Senate: GOP 70% Expected seats with 90% CI: - House: Dem 225 seats (200-258), GOP 210 seats (177-235) - Senate: GOP 51 seats (46-56), Dem 49 seats (44-53) Full forecast: electionstatsheet.com

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Mac Tan @mactan.bsky.social · 14/08/2026

Midterm forecast 8/14 Majority chances: - House: Dem 64% - Senate: GOP 70% Expected seats with 90% CI: - House: Dem 225 seats (200-259), GOP 210 seats (176-235) - Senate: GOP 51 seats (46-56), Dem 49 seats (44-53) Full forecast: electionstatsheet.com

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Mac Tan @mactan.bsky.social · 13/08/2026

Midterm forecast 8/13 Majority chances: - House: Dem 65% - Senate: GOP 71% Expected seats with 90% CI: - House: Dem 226 seats (201-258), GOP 209 seats (177-234) - Senate: GOP 51 seats (46-56), Dem 49 seats (44-53) Full forecast: electionstatsheet.com

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Mac Tan @mactan.bsky.social · 12/08/2026

Midterm forecast 8/11 Majority chances: - House: Dem 63% - Senate: GOP 70% Expected seats with 90% CI: - House: Dem 225 seats (200-257), GOP 210 seats (178-235) - Senate: GOP 51 seats (46-56), Dem 49 seats (44-53) Full forecast: electionstatsheet.com

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Mac Tan @mactan.bsky.social · 10/08/2026

Midterm forecast 8/10 Majority chances: - House: Dem 68% - Senate: GOP 65% Expected seats with 90% CI: - House: Dem 228 seats (202-260), GOP 207 seats (175-233) - Senate: GOP 51 seats (46-55), Dem 49 seats (45-54) Full forecast: electionstatsheet.com

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Mac Tan @mactan.bsky.social · 09/08/2026

Midterm forecast 8/8 Majority chances: - House: Dem 69% - Senate: GOP 62% Expected seats with 90% CI: - House: Dem 228 seats (202-262), GOP 207 seats (173-233) - Senate: GOP 50 seats (46-55), Dem 49 seats (45-54) Full forecast: electionstatsheet.com

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Mac Tan @mactan.bsky.social · 07/08/2026

Midterm forecast 8/7 Majority chances: - House: Dem 69% - Senate: GOP 63% Expected seats with 90% CI: - House: Dem 228 seats (203-260), GOP 207 seats (175-232) - Senate: GOP 50 seats (46-55), Dem 49 seats (45-54) Full forecast: electionstatsheet.com

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Mac Tan @mactan.bsky.social · 06/08/2026

Midterm forecast 8/6 Majority chances: - House: Dem 64% - Senate: GOP 68% Expected seats with 90% CI: - House: Dem 226 seats (201-259), GOP 207 seats (176-234) - Senate: GOP 51 seats (46-56), Dem 49 seats (44-53) Full forecast: electionstatsheet.com

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Mac Tan @mactan.bsky.social · 05/08/2026

Midterm forecast 8/5 Majority chances: - House: Dem 65% - Senate: GOP 65% Expected seats with 90% CI: - House: Dem 226 seats (202-260), GOP 207 seats (175-233) - Senate: GOP 51 seats (46-55), Dem 49 seats (45-53) Full forecast: electionstatsheet.com

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Mac Tan @mactan.bsky.social · 04/08/2026

Midterm forecast 8/4 Majority chances: - House: Dem 65% - Senate: GOP 65% Expected seats with 90% CI: - House: Dem 226 seats (201-260), GOP 207 seats (175-234) - Senate: GOP 51 seats (46-55), Dem 49 seats (45-54) Full forecast: electionstatsheet.com

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Mac Tan @mactan.bsky.social · 03/08/2026

Midterm forecast 8/3 Majority chances: - House: Dem 68% - Senate: GOP 55% Expected seats with 90% CI: - House: Dem 228 seats (202-262), GOP 207 seats (173-233) - Senate: GOP 50 seats (45-54), Dem 50 seats (46-54) Full forecast: electionstatsheet.com

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Mac Tan @mactan.bsky.social · 03/08/2026

Midterm forecast 8/2 Majority chances: - House: Dem 73% - Senate: GOP 55% Expected seats with 90% CI: - House: Dem 230 seats (204-266), GOP 205 seats (169-231) - Senate: GOP 50 seats (45-54), Dem 50 seats (46-54) Full forecast: electionstatsheet.com

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Mac Tan @mactan.bsky.social · 01/08/2026

Midterm forecast 8/1 Majority chances: - House: Dem 71% - Senate: GOP 56% Expected seats with 90% CI: - House: Dem 230 seats (203-266), GOP 205 seats (169-232) - Senate: GOP 50 seats (45-55), Dem 50 seats (45-54) Full forecast: electionstatsheet.com

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Mac Tan @mactan.bsky.social · 30/07/2026

well Peter numbers don’t lie do they

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