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Lukas Hetzer @lukashetzer.eurosky.social · 19/10/2026

3/3 Coverage in DIE ZEIT (in German): 📰 Paywalled; DM me for a gift link: www.zeit.de/politik/deut... 🎧 Podcast: www.zeit.de/politik/2026...

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Lukas Hetzer @lukashetzer.eurosky.social · 19/10/2026

After the CDU/CSU signalled openness to AfD support in January 2025, initial SPD supporters became ~3 percentage points more likely to switch to The Left. A similar shift among Green supporters was not statistically significant. Electoral costs can spill over to potential coalition partners.

Figure 3: Estimated effects of CDU/CSU accommodation signals towards the AfD on vote intention switching, shown separately for initial SPD, Green and CDU/CSU supporters. SPD supporters became significantly more likely to switch to The Left. The corresponding estimate for Green supporters is positive but not statistically significant. CDU/CSU supporters became significantly more likely to switch to the SPD or AfD. Points show multinomial regression estimates in log-odds relative to retaining the initial voting intention. Thick and thin horizontal lines show 90% and 95% confidence intervals; the dashed vertical line marks zero.

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Lukas Hetzer @lukashetzer.eurosky.social · 17/02/2025

ParlLawSpeech also provides high-quality translations of speeches from the European Parliament 🇪🇺 and the Hungarian National Assembly 🇭🇺 into English. Learn more on our website at ParlLawSpeech.org/data and the respective GitHub page (github.com/ChRauh/OPTED...).

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Lukas Hetzer @lukashetzer.eurosky.social · 16/04/2024

Importantly, the effects of our regional crisis composite measure go beyond the simple summation of the singular crisis effects, indicating that accumulated crisis pain leads to even larger EU fiscal capacity support. This is both the case for H1 (see above) and H2 (see below).

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Lukas Hetzer @lukashetzer.eurosky.social · 16/04/2024

Next, in support of H2, we find that regional crisis exposure plays an important role in spurring support for more permissive & redistributive EU fiscal capacity. This is the case for the covid & economic crisis and crisis composite, and partly also for the migration crisis.

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Lukas Hetzer @lukashetzer.eurosky.social · 16/04/2024

Firstly, our results reveal that regions hit harder by the Covid-19 crisis (in terms of excess mortality), as well as the combination of all three crises are more supportive of EU fiscal capacities in general.

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Lukas Hetzer @lukashetzer.eurosky.social · 16/04/2024

The survey was carried out in France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, & Spain in early 2020, the beginning of the Covid-19 crisis, making it particularly suited to exploring possible effects of the Covid-19 crisis, but also allowing to test the impacts of other crises.

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Lukas Hetzer @lukashetzer.eurosky.social · 16/04/2024

We expect regional-level crisis exposure to positively impact respondents' support for (H1) EU fiscal capacities in general and (H2) fiscal capacity instruments that are more permissive and redistributive.

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Lukas Hetzer @lukashetzer.eurosky.social · 16/04/2024

🚨Exciting news! My first article (co-authored with Brian Burgoon) is now published #OpenAccess in @jeppjournal.bsky.social ! tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.... A thread on our research and main findings: 🧵👇

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