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Reposted by Ludovic Panon

VoxEU @ CEPR @voxeu.org · 17/06/2026

@fpconteduca.eurosky.social M Errico @fabrizioleone.bsky.social @ludovicpanon.bsky.social & G Romanini study the impact of trade wars on firms in third countries and find that the 2018-19 US-China trade war generated an average export gain of 2.5% for Italian firms. cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

The figure shows the distribution of model–predicted export revenue changes across Italian firms between 2017 and 2019, both pooled across destinations and disaggregated by destination. Average gains are higher in the US, consistent with Italian exports substituting for Chinese products. Exports to the EU, China, and – to a lesser extent – the rest of the world also expanded, consistent with the presence of external economies of scale in Italian exports. These average effects, however, mask substantial heterogeneity: the standard deviation of pooled export revenue changes is 7.6%, with roughly one in five firms experiencing a decline in exports.

Bilateral trade shocks may reallocate demand and competition across countries, creating spillovers for firms in bystander countries. To study how firms respond to trade shocks happening elsewhere, this column proposes a tractable trade model that allows trade elasticities to vary across destinations and incorporates external economies of scale. Applying the model to the universe of Italian firms, the authors find that the 2018–2019 US–China trade war generated an average export gain of 2.5%, but with substantial heterogeneity across firms. External economies of scale account for most of the variation in firm-level export performance.

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Reposted by Ludovic Panon

Flavien @flavienm.bsky.social · 03/05/2026

Cartels distort economies and decrease welfare. In a paper forthcoming AEJ:Macro @aeajournals.bsky.social my coauthor @ludovicpanon.bsky.social build a framework to quantify these losses. #EconSky

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Ludovic Panon @ludovicpanon.bsky.social · 03/05/2026

So happy to see this paper with @flavienm.bsky.social forthcoming at AEJ: Macro! 💡Cartels distort the allocation of resources. ‼️Collusion by top firms shifts demand toward less efficient producers → aggregate losses. 🔎Productivity ↓ up to 0.4%, welfare ↓ 0.7%

aeaweb.org

How Costly Are Cartels?

(Forthcoming Article) - We study the cost of cartels in an oligopoly model with het- erogeneous firms, endogenous markups, and collusion. Cartels can amplify or dampen misallocation, by charging supra...

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Ludovic Panon @ludovicpanon.bsky.social · 04/03/2025

🇪🇺New VoxEU column‼️ 🚨We show that a 50% reduction in imports of critical inputs from China and China-aligned countries would lead to transitory value-added losses in manufacturing of about 2-3%. 🇧🇪🇫🇷🇮🇹🇸🇮🇪🇸We find significant variation of such a shock across firms, sectors, regions, and countries.

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Reposted by Ludovic Panon

Christian Zimmermann @czimm-economist.bsky.social · 01/02/2025

And more international trade economists that listed there Mastodon handle in their RePEc profile: ideas.repec.org/i/eblueskyin...

ideas.repec.org

RePEc-registered Economists in International Trade on Bluesky

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Reposted by Ludovic Panon

Francesco Paolo Conteduca 🇪🇺🇮🇹🇺🇦 @fpconteduca.eurosky.social · 18/12/2024

Our brand new paper. Feel free to check it out!

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Ludovic Panon @ludovicpanon.bsky.social · 18/12/2024

Natural disasters are costly - but firms don't just stand by. They adapt and respond. How do they do it? What are the macro implications? In our new paper with @fpconteduca.bsky.social, we look into that. A 🧵 (1/7)

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Trade Diversion (Jonathan Dingel) @tradediversion.bsky.social · 17/12/2024

Trade economists: After you publish your first trade paper, add yourself to Alan Deadorff's Family Tree of Trade Economists. public.websites.umich.edu/~alandear/tr... The cohort sizes suggest the field is in decline, but I think participation has fallen. Sign up!

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