Alexander With on Russia's attacks on neutral shipping and the EU's dilemma between deterrence and escalation.

Anders Puck Nielsen on why Russia's strikes on Ukrainian data centers backfired, exposing its own centralized data network.

Anders Puck Nielsen on why sanctions relief could undermine pressure on Russia's war economy.

By Alexander With In my latest post, I argued why a Chinese amphibious invasion of Taiwan would be very difficult to succeed. At least on short- to medium-term timelines, the technology, geography, weather, and forces available do not favor China in such a scenario. Furthermore, an invasion would be an all-or-nothing gamble, risking catastrophic loss and unwanted escalation with the US. Nevertheless, China has stated that unification with Taiwan is not a question of “if”, but of “when”. The na

In this video, I discuss the problems the Russian military has run into from being banned from Starlink and Telegram. It’s striking how dependent they’ve become on an American satellite provider and a commercial social media platform. Watch the video on the website or read the transcript below. Best, Anders Transcript: Hi. I want to comment on two stories that are related. The first one is about Starlink being banned for Russian soldiers. And the other one is about Telegram being banned in

In this video, I give a rather pessimistic status on the peace talks. Despite Trump's attempts at brokering a deal, almost no progress has been made. Watch the video on the website or read the transcript below. Best, Anders Transcript: This week, there was another round of negotiations between Russia and Ukraine about a peace deal, and unsurprisingly, it ended without visible progress. A deal was made about the exchange of prisoners of war, but it's quite normal that they do that as a kind

In this video, I discuss Zelensky's statement that 55,000 Ukrainian soldiers have lost their lives in the war so far. This is a massive number. It's about the same number the USA lost in the Vietnam War, but even so, it's almost certainly an understatement, and the real number is much higher. Watch the video on the website or read the transcript below. Best, Anders Transcript: Hi. Yesterday, Zelensky said in an interview to a French TV station that Ukraine has about 55,000 dead soldiers. So

The New START treaty is about to expire, and unless Russia and the U.S. find a quick way to extend it, the two countries will soon be without any limitations on strategic nuclear forces for the first time since the 1970s. Watch the video on the website or read the transcript below. Best, Anders Transcript: In a couple of days the New START treaty is going to expire. It's a treaty about weapons reductions and control of strategic nuclear weapons between the United States and Russia. This is

In this video, I discuss the preliminary resolution of the Greenland crisis and why Trump decided to step back from his maximalist demands of owning Greenland. This crisis serves as a good example of how even small states can apply military force to deter great powers from aggression. Watch the video on the website or read the transcript below. Best, Anders Transcript: Hi. It looks like the Greenland Crisis is over. I've been thinking about how I should cover it, because I made a YouTube vi

There are many who fear that China will attempt to seize Taiwan in the near future. That may be true, but a traditional amphibious invasion would be nearly impossible. In this post, I want to compare a Chinese invasion with D-Day in 1944 to show why such an attack would be unlikely to succeed. D-Day was perhaps the most impressive military feat in history. Thousands of Allied troops, ships, and aircraft stormed heavily defended beaches, broke through German defences, and seized harbours that co

In this video, I discuss why Donald Trump wants ownership of Greenland, and how Europe should respond to the pressure. Watch the video on the website or read the transcript below. Best, Anders Transcript: I've been reluctant to comment on the situation about Greenland for a couple of reasons. The first one is that at one level, this story is just too stupid. It's a ridiculous crisis. So, I felt it was hard to add all that much aside from pointing out that it's stupid. And the second reason i

In this video, I discuss the conflict over Greenland and the upcoming meeting between J.D. Vance and the Danish foreign minister. It's a bizarre situation where it's difficult to see any solutions other than either Donald Trump either giving up his vanity project or going through with a military invasion. Watch the video on the website or read the transcript below. Best, Anders Transcript: Hi, I just want to make a quick video about Greenland. I don't think I've been talking a lot about Gre

This week, I met with Carlo Masala for a talk about his book, "If Russia Wins," and the future of European security. Carlo is extremely insightful, and I think it was a really good conversation. I hope you will enjoy it too. This video is, unfortunately, way too long to provide a transcript, so this time it's just the video. Best, Anders

In this video, I talk about the American attack on Venezuela and what it says about the state of the world. Honestly, it’s a pretty depressing picture, where American imperialism seems to be something we need to get used to. Watch the video on the website or read the transcript below. Best, Anders Transcript: The United States has attacked Venezuela and removed President Maduro. In this video, I want to share a few high-level thoughts about what it means and what it says about the world. So

Earlier this week, I met with Jonathan from Silicon Curtain and Georgijs from Ukraine Matters at a café in Copenhagen to talk about the war in Ukraine and our expectations for 2026. Jonathan and Georgijs are great company, and I think our different perspectives made for an interesting conversation. You can listen to it here. Best, Anders

Happy New Year! In this video, I discuss two stories that have dominated the last days of 2025. The first one is about how Finnish authorities arrested a ship caught dragging its anchor over the seabed and destroying cables in the Baltic Sea. The other one is about how Trump was very open to believing Putin's story about Ukraine attacking his personal residence in a massive drone strike that probably never happened. Watch the video on the website or read the transcript below. I'm trying a new

By Alexander With The war in Ukraine is escalating. While the front line is mostly static, both sides have ramped up their ability to conduct strategic bombing with drones and missiles. The cost of war is therefore increasing at a time when both sides are already feeling the burden of four years of war. Russian inflation is high, there are fuel shortages, and Russian administrative regions are finding it increasingly difficult to reach their recruitment quotas. Worse yet, the Ukrainian campaig

In this video, I discuss Donald Trump's appointment of a special envoy to Greenland, whose only job is to ensure that Greenland leaves Denmark and joins the United States. Watch the video on the website or read the transcript below. Best, Anders Transcript: The other day, Donald Trump appointed a special envoy to Greenland and I thought I'd offer my comments on it. It's quite significant because really the only purpose of this person is to make sure that Greenland joins the United States. T

In this video, I discuss the EU's decision to allocate 90 billion euros for Ukraine to fund the war over the coming two years. It's one of the most important strategic decisions made over the last year. This is incredibly bad news for Russia, and it shows how Europe is beginning to act with strategic autonomy. Watch the video on the website or read the transcript below. Best, Anders Transcript: The EU countries have agreed on a model for how they are going to finance Ukraine's war in the co

In this video, I discuss the negotiations in Brussels regarding a plan for funding Ukraine in the coming years and why it's important for Europe to move away from the piecemeal bilateral funding that has dominated so far. Watch the video on the website or read the transcript below. Best, Anders Transcript: Hi. In Brussels, the negotiations are now going on about the future funding for Ukraine—for the war effort, and also for running the civil society. There is the big discussion about wheth

My book, The Logic of War, is finally out in English. In this short video, I explain what the book is about and how to get it if you're interested. The short version is that you can get it from a bookstore here. Or if you want a signed copy, you can send me an email at books@logicofwar.com. Watch the video on the website or read the transcript below. Best, Anders Transcript: This is not a normal video for me, it's just a quick announcement that my book, The Logic of War, is finally out in E

In this video, I discuss two sets of ongoing negotiations. One is the current negotiations about peace in Ukraine, and the other concerns the EU's use of frozen Russian assets to fund Ukraine's war effort in the coming years. One set of these negotiations is important, and the other gets the media attention. Watch the video on the website or read the transcript below. Best, Anders Transcript: In this video, I want to talk a little bit about negotiations that don't matter and negotiations th

In this video, I discuss the new U.S. national security strategy, which, to put it mildly, is concerning for Europe. It's largely a document about how the Trump administration sees it as a requirement for continued transatlantic cooperation that MAGA movements come to power in European countries. Watch the video on the website or read the transcript below. Best, Anders Transcript: Last week, the Trump administration released the new U.S. National Security Strategy. This is a document that t

This week, Putin claimed victory in Pokrovsk. It was not true, but nevertheless the media was all over the story. In this video, I explain my approach to assessing whether reports about battlefield developments are trustworthy. Watch the video on the website or read the transcript below. Best, Anders Transcript: Hi. The other day, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner were in Moscow. They met Putin. They toured the city and it was a big spectacle there. And to the surprise of almost nobody, this

In this video, I discuss the Ukrainian attacks on Russian shadow fleet tankers in the Black Sea. Watch the video on the website or read the transcript below. Best, Anders Transcript: It has been a while since there have been dramatic developments in the maritime war in Ukraine, but over the last few days, something spectacular has indeed happened. Ukraine has started targeting Russian oil tankers with maritime drones, and this is something that could potentially have very big consequences. S

By Alexander With: Presently, 70 percent of all casualties in the war in Ukraine can be ascribed to drones. Manoeuvre warfare has all but disappeared. Instead, we are seeing a slow attritional grind with parallels to World War I. The two sides seem to have all but given up on armoured breakthroughs. Instead, they slug it out with infantry, artillery, motorcycles and above all drones in large numbers. Yet in NATO, the emphasis is still on creating heavy armoured brigades. Generals and officers

I discuss the corruption scandal in Ukraine and the ousting of Zelensky's right-hand man, Andriy Yermak. Contrary to popular belief, this scandal makes Zelensky less likely to give in to American pressure about concessions to Russia—not more. Watch the video on the website or read the transcript below. Best, Anders Transcript: Andriy Yermak is no longer Zelensky's chief of staff. I just wanted to comment on it really quickly because this is Ukrainian domestic politics and it's important bec

In this video, I discuss the American peace plan and ultimatum to Ukraine. Watch the video on the website or read the transcript below. Best, Anders Transcript: Donald Trump has issued a strong ultimatum to Ukraine, which must agree to a framework for a peace deal before Thanksgiving, which is on Thursday. This is dramatic, so let's talk about it. The Trump administration, together with the Russians, has developed a 28-point peace plan, which they have presented to Ukraine. They have stated

In this video, I discuss the deal apparently negotiated between Steve Witkoff and Kirill Dmitriev about peace between Russia and Ukraine. It's pretty much just a list of maximalist Russian demands, and it's hard to see what Ukraine gets out of it. Watch the video on the website or read the transcript below. Best, Anders Transcript: Hi, I just want to share some thoughts on all the talk that there is right now about whether the Trump administration has, together with the Russians, made a new

In this video, I discuss the recent acts of sabotage on Polish railways. It's another step in Russia's hybrid escalation, and I don't think it has received the attention in Western media that it deserves. Watch the video here or read the transcript below. Best, Anders Transcript: Hi, in this video I want to quickly talk about the railroad sabotage that has happened in Poland over the weekend. Usually I use the Danish media as a kind of proxy for what gets coverage in the West but we've had

By Alexander With Despite a long series of hybrid attacks against Europe, European governments have been remarkably cautious in their response. Not all incidents with clear Russian fingerprints have been officially attributed to Moscow. Others have been attributed, but even then, retaliation has rarely gone beyond words. Russia, never easily deterred by rhetoric alone, has continued its hybrid campaign unabated. Europe and NATO have, so far, failed to deter hybrid aggression—or at least, faile

In this video, I answer your questions. Unfortunately, I was not able to answer all of them, because there were just too many. But I tried to cover as much ground as possible. There is a transcript below, but in this case I recommend listening to the video instead. The transcript is just so long for me to go through it manually. Best, Anders Transcript: Note: Usually, I verify the manuscripts manually, but with this one that has not been possible because it's just too long. So take it for w

What questions should I answer in my next YouTube video? Submit your questions in the comments section to this post. Best, Anders Transcript: Hi. For a while I've been thinking about sometimes trying to change the format on my YouTube videos and include some Q&A videos where people can ask me questions and I will just answer those. And now, having been unable to upload videos for a few weeks due to the book launch and all those things, I'm kind of behind on all the developments and there are

In this video, I discuss the dramatic situation around the city of Pokrovsk and whether it's time for Ukraine to leave the city. The answer could very well be yes, but I also think some analysts have a tendency to call for Ukrainian withdrawals prematurely. It’s very hard to get the timing right for those things. Watch the video here or read the transcript below. Best, Anders. Transcript: Hi, it's been a while since I made a video. The reason is it's just been an absolutely crazy busy perio

By Alexander With: Russia is waging a hybrid war against NATO in general, and in particular against the European countries that are most actively helping Ukraine. The war is being fought with every tool in the Russian toolbox, including, but not limited to, sabotage, cyberattacks, subversion, violations of sovereignty, fake news, and threats. It is a war beneath the threshold of conventional war. Attacks are common, but they rarely cause casualties. Instead, they cause fear, uncertainty, and ec

In this video, I discuss the outcome of the meeting between Trump and Zelensky on Friday. Trump failed to take the tough stance on Russia that the European leaders apparently thought he would, and instead we are back to him repeating Russian talking points. Watch the video here or read the transcript below. Best, Anders Transcript: Hi, I thought I'd do a quick video on the Trump-Zelensky meeting that happened on Friday and the reactions to it afterwards and where it leaves Ukraine and Europ

Earlier this year, Alexander With and I wrote a chapter in an anthology about the Russian military following the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. We focused on the maritime aspect, while colleagues from the Royal Danish Defence College and other Danish academic institutions contributed chapters on other topics. The book was released in Danish in the spring, and now it's available in English as well. The good news is that the English version is an ebook and completely free (unlike the Danish edit

In this video, I discuss whether the United States will provide Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine, what difference it would make in the war if they do, and whether Tomahawk is really the right capability for Ukraine if you want to achieve the most military effect. Watch the video here or read the transcript below. Best, Anders Transcript: Hi. In this video, I want to talk about Tomahawk missiles. There is a lot of talk about Tomahawk missiles right now. There are many discussions about how the U

In this video, I discuss why Putin did not accept Trump's offer of a peace deal back in the spring when the American president was presenting him with a variety of important concessions. Instead, he rejected the proposals. Several high-profile YouTubers have recently argued that Putin made a big mistake. However, I think they overestimate the extent to which such a deal was ever realistically an option on the table for Putin. Watch the video here or read the transcript below. Best, Anders. T

In this video, I discuss President Zelensky's announcement that attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure this winter will be met with similar attacks on the Russian power grid. This is interesting because it means that Ukraine is venturing into the area of military deterrence rather than just ongoing warfighting, and it indicates that the power balance may be shifting in Ukraine's favor. It may also explain why we haven't seen Ukraine's powerful Flamingo missiles in more extensive use since th

By Alexander With International law has long been an important regulator of wars and conflicts, but recent developments have weakened it to the point where it is now fighting for its relevancy. To the detriment of Europe – and the United States. The laws regulating the conduct of war (jus in bello) and the circumstances under which wars can be fought (jus ad bellum) can be seen as an attempt to limit suffering and cruelty in wars, as well as to prevent wars from being fought in the first place

Drone sightings in Denmark appear to be the next iteration of Russia's hybrid war against Western Europe. In this video, I discuss what happened, reflect on the public reaction, and ponder how Western European populations seem unprepared for what likely lies ahead. Watch the video here or read the transcript below. Best, Anders Transcript: Hi. In this video, I want to talk a bit about the drone sightings that have happened in Denmark and the public reaction to it and what I think it says ab

This week, Denmark decided to procure long-range precision missiles in what the Prime Minister has called a paradigm shift in Danish military thinking. This decision has sparked a debate in Denmark that inspired me to make this video. It seems that many people do not fully understand the crucial role that long-range missiles play in modern warfare and the disadvantage Western Europe currently faces in the event of a war with Russia. Watch the video here or read the transcript below. Best, Ande

By Alexander With The highly anticipated Ukrainian summer offensive of 2023 ended with pictures of burning Western-made tanks and a clear Ukrainian defeat. The Ukrainians, equipped with modern Western armour and having undergone Western training, were expected to punch through the lines and cut the Russian defences in two. I covered the lack of successful usage of tanks in this war in a previous post. The question in this article is whether the tank is dead, or whether NATO could overcome the p

In this video, I discuss the Russian drones in Poland, and what an appropriate response would be from NATO. Watch the video here or read the transcript below. Best, Anders Transcript: Hi, it's been a couple of days since Russia launched a number of drones over Poland, and I thought I'd share my thoughts about it. First, what happened? Well, a number of drones, I've heard anything between 19 and 25 drones were sent by Russia into Polish airspace. A number of them came over Ukraine and a numbe

In this video, I reflect on the discussions about security guarantees for Ukraine and explain why they are still immature. It's good that there is now a focus on security guarantees rather than Ukraine needing to make territorial concessions. However, it is a significant mistake to view Ukrainian security as independent of broader questions about European security as a whole. Western Europe needs Ukraine as much as Ukraine needs Western Europe. This point was illustrated quite vividly with the R

In this video, I discuss why security guarantees for Ukraine must go beyond just defeating Russian aggression on Ukrainian territory. The key to deterrence is to ensure that Russia faces the threat of uncontrollable escalation if it ever attacks again – and that requires Western countries to think about horizontal escalation. Watch the video here or read the transcript below. Best, Anders Transcript: Hi, in this video I want to quickly talk about security guarantees. It's again all over the

By Alexander With The Nagorno-Karabakh war of 2020 between Armenia and Azerbaijan was an omen of things to come. Azerbaijan used Turkish-produced drones to devastating effect against Armenian tanks, securing an impressive victory in just 44 days. However, it was the war in Ukraine that truly became the world’s first large-scale “drone war.” The use of drones in this conflict has grown exponentially. In December 2023, Ukraine produced more drones than in all of 2022 combined. In 2024, Ukraine p

In this video, I discuss a new phenomenon on the front lines in Ukraine, where it appears to be easier for both sides to penetrate the front line and suddenly appear in the rear areas of the enemy. A large part of the reason is manpower shortages, but it is also a deliberate strategy to remove soldiers from the front line as much as possible. This means that we need to understand the front line much more as a large gray zone than a distinct line on a map. Watch the video here or read a transcri

In this video, I discuss the meetings in Alaska and Washington, D.C. about the peace process for Ukraine. I think many people have been too quick to declare the Alaska meeting a victory for Putin. It's interesting how Trump insists on claiming that Putin made concessions he clearly did not make. Either Trump doesn't understand the issues at all, or it's a sophisticated negotiation strategy that resembles entrapment. In either case, it might become a problem for Putin. Watch the video here or re