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Laurie Macfarlane @lmacfarlane.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

One mechanism they propose is for the state to retain golden shares in the new firms. But when the ONS classifies bodies as public or private, it’s control - not ownership - that matters. The existence of a golden share is viewed as a form of public control.

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Laurie Macfarlane @lmacfarlane.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

Their main argument against nationalisation is that firms won’t be run efficiently, citing post-war examples. But you don’t need to look far to see this isn’t true. Scottish Water is publicly owned and run reasonably well. Public ownership of water is the norm globally.

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Laurie Macfarlane @lmacfarlane.bsky.social · 03/08/2026

We can also present this sensitivity using the tax bases implied by Dan's revenue figures. On this basis, if non-tax factors explain more than 14% of the divergence, the revenue loss vanishes. Crucially, there is only a £22m loss if we assume tax drives 100% of the divergence.

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Laurie Macfarlane @lmacfarlane.bsky.social · 03/08/2026

This distinction matters because Dan accepts that his £22m revenue loss is conditional. The entire “loss” disappears if Scottish top incomes would otherwise have grown just 1.2% more slowly than rUK. A small change in the counterfactual reverses the result.

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Laurie Macfarlane @lmacfarlane.bsky.social · 03/08/2026

Our charts showed Scottish and rUK top incomes have repeatedly diverged historically, showing there are drivers beyond tax at play. Dan accepts this is the case, but argues the recent divergence cannot be explained by historic volatility.

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Laurie Macfarlane @lmacfarlane.bsky.social · 01/08/2026

Our alternative HMRC ratio - which is not impacted by the threshold change - does not show the same deterioration in 2023-24. The ratio actually increased. This doesn't disprove Dan’s hypothesis, but it shows it’s sensitive to measurement.

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Laurie Macfarlane @lmacfarlane.bsky.social · 01/08/2026

To support his tax hypothesis, Dan highlights a decline in Scotland’s ratio of average top income to rUK as a sign of behavioural change. However, the threshold fell from £150,000 to £125,140 in 2023-24, increasing the number of taxpayers in the top band – but not consistently.

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Laurie Macfarlane @lmacfarlane.bsky.social · 01/08/2026

The £22m estimate is also extremely sensitive to this critical assumption. If Scottish top incomes grew just 1.2% more slowly than rUK, the loss disappears. At 2% slower, there is a £14m gain. As top-incomes in Scotland regularly diverge widely from rUK, this is all possible.

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Laurie Macfarlane @lmacfarlane.bsky.social · 01/08/2026

This is little more than sleight of hand dressed up as economics. If Dan wants to defend the £22m figure, he needs to explain what drove Scotland’s historic divergence, and why it's not relevant. Those non-tax factors can't simply be wished away to make the tax hypothesis fit.

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Laurie Macfarlane @lmacfarlane.bsky.social · 01/08/2026

Using UK growth to predict Scotland in the past would have produced large forecasting errors. This matters because Dan’s £22m estimate depends on one-year exact matching. The historical relationship shows this is highly questionable.

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Laurie Macfarlane @lmacfarlane.bsky.social · 01/08/2026

An alternative HMRC dataset, using a fixed £150,000 threshold back to 2010-11, shows the same point. Growth of high-incomes in Scotland is far more volatile than the UK's – including long before Scotland diverged on income tax.

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Laurie Macfarlane @lmacfarlane.bsky.social · 01/08/2026

Dan's own data show that the growth in Scottish top incomes has historically differed sharply from rUK. Scottish trends are far more volatile. The key assumption driving the £22m “loss” is therefore empirically weak. This alone should be enough to make us extremely cautious.

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Laurie Macfarlane @lmacfarlane.bsky.social · 01/08/2026

🚨 NEW: @danneidle.bsky.social claims Scotland’s 48% tax rate has lost public revenue. But is this actually true? My new deep-dive says no – Dan’s analysis doesn’t prove anything. It’s a long read, so buckle up 🧵

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Laurie Macfarlane @lmacfarlane.bsky.social · 10/07/2026

Average incomes can conceal how growth is distributed. Among all UK regions and nations, Scotland has the lowest proportion of workers earning below the Living Wage. This has been aided by deliberate policy choices, including Scotland's Fair Work agenda.

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Laurie Macfarlane @lmacfarlane.bsky.social · 10/07/2026

Scotland has also outperformed most of the UK on household disposable income, which includes earnings and benefits, net of taxes. Real GDHI per head has grown faster than in every English region except London.

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Laurie Macfarlane @lmacfarlane.bsky.social · 10/07/2026

But what matters most is living standards. Since devolution, median weekly earnings have risen by 23% in Scotland, versus 15% in England, 16% in Wales and 20% in Northern Ireland. Scotland has overtaken England and now has the highest earnings of all UK nations.

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Laurie Macfarlane @lmacfarlane.bsky.social · 10/07/2026

Since 1999, Scotland has recorded the fastest GDP growth per capita of any UK nation. Edinburgh now has the highest GDP per capita of any UK city. Productivity tells a similar story. Since the financial crisis, Scotland's productivity has grown at roughly twice the UK's rate.

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Laurie Macfarlane @lmacfarlane.bsky.social · 10/07/2026

NEW: Has devolution helped or hindered Scotland's economy? 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 Critics claim it has failed. I dug into more than two decades of data to test that claim (it's wrong), and identify lessons England. 🧵

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Laurie Macfarlane @lmacfarlane.bsky.social · 09/05/2026

Three of the UK’s nations have elected pro-independence parties. The fourth is drifting towards English nationalism under Reform. These islands are constitutionally broken. Yet the UK government still acts like it’s 1997.

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Laurie Macfarlane @lmacfarlane.bsky.social · 06/05/2026

Proponents of tax cuts claim this will supercharge growth, but this is dubious. Scotland had lower income tax until relatively recently, and growth was equally poor. The UK still has lower tax rates today, and is hardly booming.

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Laurie Macfarlane @lmacfarlane.bsky.social · 06/05/2026

Similarly, the Conservatives are proposing nearly £3bn of income tax cuts, which would predominantly benefit higher earners, alongside £700m cuts to business rates. This is would be enabled by slashing welfare and cutting public spending.

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Laurie Macfarlane @lmacfarlane.bsky.social · 06/05/2026

Reform are proposing ~£4bn of income tax cuts, which would benefit high earners the most. In practice, these tax cuts would necessitate deep cuts to public spending, amounting to a radical shrinking of the state.

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Laurie Macfarlane @lmacfarlane.bsky.social · 30/04/2026

Malcolm Offord says he’s a very wealthy man. So what would Reform’s tax cuts mean for him? Even on an MSP salary alone, he’d sit in the top income decile — and benefit significantly.

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Laurie Macfarlane @lmacfarlane.bsky.social · 29/04/2026

NEW: How do party election manifestos measure up on delivering a just transition? Today we’re publishing @futureeconscot.bsky.social's deep dive into each party’s policy platform. 🧵 👉 www.futureeconomy.scot/publications...

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Laurie Macfarlane @lmacfarlane.bsky.social · 28/04/2026

Landlords simply raised rents sharply between tenancies. New tenants faced huge jumps, and advertised rents soared. Overall market rents kept rising — sometimes faster than rUK without rent controls.

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Laurie Macfarlane @lmacfarlane.bsky.social · 23/04/2026

Crucially, VAT revenue to the state is treated as a simple, static gain. But the "losses" are multiplied across the whole economy, projected 15 years into the future, and compounded. When you multiply the "bad" and minimise the "good," it’s unsurprising you get the answer you want.

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Laurie Macfarlane @lmacfarlane.bsky.social · 23/04/2026

In any case, the number of school-age children in Scotland overall is expected to fall by 17% over the same period. Much of any decline that happens will be demographics, not VAT. The report acknowledges this, but underplays it.

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Laurie Macfarlane @lmacfarlane.bsky.social · 23/04/2026

Future “losses” to the state assume private school pupils shrink by a third over the next 15 years, which is largely attributed to the VAT change. This means less public revenue from taxes, and higher “costs” for state schools, as above.

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Laurie Macfarlane @lmacfarlane.bsky.social · 23/04/2026

The study claims private schools have already seen a 9% drop in pupils due to VAT. One problem: that drop mostly happened before the policy even started in 2025.

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Laurie Macfarlane @lmacfarlane.bsky.social · 22/04/2026

The cost of living is a top issue for voters, and rightly so. Over the past 5 years, the price of essentials has risen more than 2x faster than wages. Olive oil? Nearly 4x faster.

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Laurie Macfarlane @lmacfarlane.bsky.social · 22/04/2026

What’s driving this? Weak wage growth is part of the story, but there’s another culprit: inflation. But headline figures masks huge variation. The cost of some everyday essentials has risen more than twice as fast as wages over the 5 years.

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Laurie Macfarlane @lmacfarlane.bsky.social · 22/04/2026

It’s not just earnings. Real disposable income per person – what people actually have to spend – has also stalled: 📈 Early devolution: +2.6% per year ⚠️ Since 2008: just +0.3% And the forecasts don't look much better.

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Laurie Macfarlane @lmacfarlane.bsky.social · 22/04/2026

The cost of living is a top concern among voters, and it’s obvious why. The numbers are stark: 📈 Pre-2008: wages grew 2.2% per year ⚠️ Since 2008: just 0.14% per year Annual pay grew 15x faster before the financial crisis than after it.

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Laurie Macfarlane @lmacfarlane.bsky.social · 22/04/2026

NEW: What’s driving Scotland’s cost-of-living crisis? Households have been squeezed by a pincer movement of weak wage growth + rising prices. Our new @futureeconscot.bsky.social deep dive on the cost of living 🧵 www.futureeconomy.scot/posts/488-el...

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Laurie Macfarlane @lmacfarlane.bsky.social · 17/04/2026

Reform: “Austerity is a myth because nominal spending rose since 1999” Incredible

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Laurie Macfarlane @lmacfarlane.bsky.social · 01/04/2026

Scotland is one of the least densely populated places in Europe. Not a single “small boat” has landed here. This is utterly absurd.

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Laurie Macfarlane @lmacfarlane.bsky.social · 19/03/2026

This isn’t just about people — it’s about money too. This inward migration has increased taxable income flowing into Scotland by ~£350m since 2018, boosting tax revenues.

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Laurie Macfarlane @lmacfarlane.bsky.social · 19/03/2026

These are total figures, but maybe we’re still seeing an exodus of high earners? Not true: in every year since divergence, more additional / top rate taxpayers have moved to Scotland than have left.

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Laurie Macfarlane @lmacfarlane.bsky.social · 19/03/2026

NEW: We often hear that Scotland’s more progressive income tax is “driving people out the country.” New HMRC data shows the opposite. Far more taxpayers are moving to Scotland than leaving it. Let’s look at the data 🧵

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Laurie Macfarlane @lmacfarlane.bsky.social · 09/03/2026

Adam Smith’s Wealth of Nations was published 250 years ago today — and remains one of the most misunderstood economics books. On Wednesday I’ll debating why Smith still matters with a great panel in Edinburgh. 🗓️ 11 March, 18:30. More info + tickets: www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/the-smith-...

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Laurie Macfarlane @lmacfarlane.bsky.social · 25/02/2026

Great to see @futureeconscot.bsky.social’s new fiscal policy report on the front page of today’s Scotsman 💪

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Laurie Macfarlane @lmacfarlane.bsky.social · 25/02/2026

But reform doesn't stop there – we also propose a new tax on development, a frequent flyer levy, and other reforms to support fairness and climate goals. Taken together, our proposals would raise an additional £2.3bn a year.

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Laurie Macfarlane @lmacfarlane.bsky.social · 25/02/2026

Second, it means taxing wealth far more effectively. We propose replacing council tax and LBTT with a new progressive property tax. The tax would be set at 0.75% on current property values up to £400,000, rising to 1.0% on the portion above that threshold.

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Laurie Macfarlane @lmacfarlane.bsky.social · 25/02/2026

Firstly, it means raising £1.5bn via progressive changes to income tax. Under our proposals, those at the top would contribute the most, the majority would pay a little more, while those on the very lowest incomes would be protected.

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Laurie Macfarlane @lmacfarlane.bsky.social · 28/01/2026

I highlighted this risk in my interview with @scotnational.bsky.social last year on the plans to issue Scottish bonds (‘kilts’): www.thenational.scot/news/2566375...

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Laurie Macfarlane @lmacfarlane.bsky.social · 28/01/2026

The Scottish Government is handing £7m to bankers and lawyers to help them voluntarily borrow more expensively. This gravy train was sadly predictable — and it will result in less investment, not more. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

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Laurie Macfarlane @lmacfarlane.bsky.social · 21/01/2026

China built more wind power last year than the rest of the world combined — by a factor of two: 🇨🇳 79.8 GW 🌍 (excl. China) 37 GW

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Laurie Macfarlane @lmacfarlane.bsky.social · 19/01/2026

Finally, the big one: Treasury bonds. The UK is now the third largest holder of treasuries, so in theory this should provide leverage. But weaponising this comes with a big risk of collateral damage.

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Laurie Macfarlane @lmacfarlane.bsky.social · 15/01/2026

The Scottish Budget increased the bottom two income tax thresholds by 7.4%, which was billed as a tax cut for low earners. In reality this benefits higher earners the most — but is more than offset by freezing the higher thresholds.

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Laurie Macfarlane @lmacfarlane.bsky.social · 08/01/2026

Greenland is SO important to the US’s national security, they just forgot to mention it in the recent National Security Strategy. Same with the Arctic. Funny that.

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