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Linda Yueh

@lindayueh.bsky.social
4.9K followers 216 following 2.5K posts

Economist at St Edmund Hall, University of Oxford & London Business School Author of The #GreatCrashes & #GreatEconomists www.amazon.co.uk/gp/aw/d/024198808X LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/lindayueh IG: instagram.com/lindayueh W: www.lindayueh.com

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Linda Yueh @lindayueh.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
Digital services are fastest-growing part of international trade. They already account for 1/4 of world exports, 1/3 of US exports. A user in Frankfurt opening Facebook, a listener in Singapore streaming Spotify, or a traveller in Warsaw navigating with Waze. cepr.org/voxeu/column...
cepr.org
The impact of AI and cross-border data regulation on international trade in digital services
AI is transforming digital services, and mobile apps, which routinely reach users far beyond their home markets, show just how global that transformation has become. This column shows that AI makes th...
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Linda Yueh @lindayueh.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
The nonbank financial institution (NBFI) share of corporate bond underwriting is about 7 percentage points higher during banking crises than in non-crisis periods. cepr.org/index%2Ephp/...
cepr.org
Bonding through crises with nonbank financial institutions
Nonbank financial institutions are often seen as procyclical lenders, cutting credit more sharply than banks during stress, while bond markets can substitute for bank lending when credit supply contra...
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Linda Yueh @lindayueh.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
VC represented on average 66% of total equity financing in low- and lower-middle-income economies, and 58% in upper-middle-income countries compared to 38% in high-income economies cepr.org/voxeu/column...
cepr.org
Venture capital – a global perspective
Existing views on what venture capital finances and how its markets are structured are primarily shaped by the experience of the US and a few other high-income economies. This column presents evidence...
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Linda Yueh @lindayueh.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
In the US, median earnings of full-time employees remained essentially unchanged between 1979 and 2019 despite a near-doubling of national income per capita cepr.org/index%2Ephp/...
cepr.org
Worker-managed firms can curb inequality and protect free markets
Rising income inequality in Western high-income countries threatens democratic governance and social cohesion, and AI risks making it worse. Drawing on a forthcoming book, this column argues for worke...
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Linda Yueh @lindayueh.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
Geopolitical risk and oil prices do not always move together cepr.org/voxeu/column...
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Linda Yueh @lindayueh.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
Bhutan’s income has grown rapidly over four decades, but that growth remains only weakly associated with improvements in measured happiness. cepr.org/voxeu/column...
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Cultural norms matter for macroeconomic development
Interest in the role of cultural norms, institutions, and development has resurfaced in recent years especially post the 2024 Nobel Prize in Economics. This column revisits Bhutan, which has pursued ‘...
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Linda Yueh @lindayueh.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
Denmark, which is characterised by fluid labour markets and high AI adoption: the share of surveyed firms reporting some AI use rose from 15% in 2023 to 59% in 2026, and most of that increase came from generative AI tools for writing text and code. cepr.org/voxeu/column...
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The adjustment of the Danish labour market to AI has begun
Policymakers are asking whether generative AI is reshaping labour demand, and the literature has found mixed results so far. This column links Denmark’s official IT-use survey to monthly employer–empl...
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Linda Yueh @lindayueh.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
New Zealand is the second-largest honey exporter by value, despite producing only about 1% of global volume. Trademarks incorporating the Māori word mānuka command export prices roughly seven times the global honey average cepr.org/voxeu/column...
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Protecting indigenous cultural resources from within the IP system
Across food, tourism, cosmetics, and luxury goods, indigenous language and heritage increasingly anchor premium market positions, but when it comes to trademarks, few jurisdictions have developed nati...
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Linda Yueh @lindayueh.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
The EU fertility rate fell to 1.34 children per woman in 2024.1 Eurostat projects that, without migration, the Union's working-age population could decline by around 20% by 2050. cepr.org/voxeu/column...
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A Mediterranean Community of Human Capital
Europe's shrinking workforce is weighing on its productivity and welfare systems. Meanwhile, its southern Mediterranean neighbours currently produce growing numbers of graduates whom domestic labour m...
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Linda Yueh @lindayueh.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
Covered interest parity (CIP) is the most classical no-arbitrage condition. CIP holds that a currency’s forward discount against another in the foreign exchange swap market should be equal to the interest rate differential between the two currencies in the money markets cepr.org/voxeu/column...
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Covered interest parity deviations and financial market frictions: Six decades of evidence
Persistent deviations from the covered interest parity no-arbitrage condition are viewed as evidence of the new and central role of balance sheet constraints and financial market frictions since the G...
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Linda Yueh @lindayueh.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
Reaching net-zero CO2 emissions by 2050, as prescribed by Paris Agreement, is hard without a carbon tax. Research estimates that reaching the goal by carbon taxation will require a tax path that peaks at around $1,300 per tonne of CO2, 10 times current prices anywhere cepr.org/voxeu/column...
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The smokestack illusion: Who really pays for net zero
Reaching net-zero CO2 emissions by 2050, as prescribed by the Paris Agreement, is hard to imagine without a carbon tax. This column estimates that reaching the goal by carbon taxation will require a t...
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Linda Yueh @lindayueh.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
Foreign capital does what economic theory has long suggested: it provides financing that supports investment & economic activity; they have meaningful expansionary effects on the real economy, with particularly strong and persistent effects from equity-type inflows. cepr.org/voxeu/column...
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Capital inflows boost output, even after accounting for expectations
Emerging market economies that are expected to perform well may attract more foreign capital, making it difficult to establish the causal effects of capital inflows on output. Using professional forec...
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Linda Yueh @lindayueh.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
In essence, frontier AI models are the most capable models, able to autonomously2 execute cyber operations and operate with speed, scale, and sophistication unmatched by human cepr.org/index%2Ephp/...
cepr.org
The cost of not innovating: Frontier AI models, cyber defence, and EU strategic autonomy
The cyber threat landscape changed dramatically in April 2026 with the emergence of frontier AI models from OpenAI and Anthropic. Access to these models was initially limited, and the US imposed a de ...
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Linda Yueh @lindayueh.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
EU’s debt issuance on behalf of its member states increased fivefold between 2020 and 2025. As a share of all EU member states’ economic output, it went from 2.9% of GDP in 2020 to 5.4% in 2025. cepr.org/index%2Ephp/...
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Lifting the curtain on the EU’s debt
The EU’s far-reaching response to a series of major shocks has turned it into a major borrower on international financial markets. Debt issued by the EU on behalf of its member states now stands at cl...
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Linda Yueh @lindayueh.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
Research shows not only that geopolitical risk reduces lending, but also that it changes where banks lend. Lending retrenches more strongly across geopolitical blocs than within them and the largest responses occur when banks’ borrowers are facing sanctions related risk cepr.org/voxeu/column...
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Geopolitical risk is reshaping global finance, one bank loan at a time
Geopolitical tensions are increasingly reshaping the flow of trade, investment and capital flows. This column documents that the same process is also reshaping bank lending. Using confidential supervi...
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Linda Yueh @lindayueh.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
Empirical studies in radiology, business problem-solving, job-seeker writing, and legal education show that when AI tools are thoughtfully embedded into training workflows, less-experienced workers can improve their independent performance cepr.org/voxeu/column...
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Better work, not always better workers
Professional judgement comes from learning by doing, but AI has the potential to disrupt this learning process. This column explores how randomised access to an AI patent-writing product affects the p...
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Linda Yueh @lindayueh.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
The empirical link between stock market returns and consumption growth has proven to be elusive in the data. Quarterly stock returns and quarterly consumption growth are essentially uncorrelated – the well-known ‘correlation puzzle’ cepr.org/voxeu/column...
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When Wall Street drifts from Main Street: Consumption as an anchor for stock prices
Debate over whether buoyant equity markets reflect durable economic gains or a widening gap between Wall Street and Main Street has intensified with the AI boom. This column argues that aggregate cons...
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Linda Yueh @lindayueh.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
Observed gas prices and physical flows alone do not reveal a disruption’s inflationary consequences. The same gas-price increase may reflect stronger demand, an interruption to current flows, or news that future supply has become less secure. cepr.org/voxeu/column...
cepr.org
Beyond flows: How natural gas supply risk fuels inflation
Europe’s output losses proved limited following the 2022 cutoff of Russian gas flows, yet inflation rose sharply. This column uses weather variation and gas-market events to distinguish gas-demand sho...
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Linda Yueh @lindayueh.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
Average of subsidies by firms’ headquarters location in the automotive sector (percentage of annual firm revenue) cepr.org/voxeu/column...
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Linda Yueh @lindayueh.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
While students with ChatGPT scored better in an assignment to write a 180-word recommendation on a real-world problem, only those who had received causal-reasoning training produced unique ideas. cepr.org/voxeu/column...
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Training novices to think in the age of large language models
Whether teaching a cognitive skill remains valuable in this era of AI is a crucial question in education and for firms. This column reports on an experiment in which around 1,000 undergraduates in Ita...
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Linda Yueh @lindayueh.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
Geoeconomic risk — risk that firms incur valuation losses when countries deploy economic, trade, or financial leverage for geopolitical aims — can be difficult to diversify away because they can affect multiple domestic stocks through a common foreign exposure cepr.org/voxeu/column...
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Navigating geoeconomic risk in the US stock market
Geoeconomic risk has become a first-order concern for investors. This column shows that domestic US stocks expose investors to substantial geoeconomic risk through firms’ global supply-chain relations...
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Linda Yueh @lindayueh.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
Strategic sovereignty is the idea that sovereignty is not only a legal constraint on foreign intervention; it can also become a political resource for the government being targeted. Before foreign intervention, citizens may view protest as a domestic conflict cepr.org/voxeu/column...
cepr.org
Strategic sovereignty, social movements, and political agency: Evidence from the US-Israeli military campaign in Iran
Military intervention may be undertaken to weaken a hostile regime and strengthen the position of its opponents. This column argues that evidence from the 2026 US-Israeli strikes on Iran points to a d...
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Linda Yueh @lindayueh.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
AI does not act on jobs. It acts on tasks, and a job is a bundle of heterogeneous ones. Ask how much AI speeds up a lawyer and the question has no answer: AI drafts a brief in minutes but does nothing for a court appearance. cepr.org/voxeu/column...
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Hiding in the mean: AI is adding jobs and removing them at the same time
Estimates of AI's employment effect disagree in size and even in sign. This column argues the disagreement is built into the measurement: AI substitutes for humans on some tasks and complements humans...
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Linda Yueh @lindayueh.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Nine Dots Prize podcast - Answering questions youtu.be/5w4EN5iQbtY?...
youtu.be
Nine Dots Prize podcast - Answering questions (02/2026) (video version)
YouTube video by Nine Dots Prize
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Linda Yueh @lindayueh.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Catch my take at 10:10 on the cost of living #timesradio
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Linda Yueh @lindayueh.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Catch my monthly contribution at 9:00-9:30 ET on the business news #bizbriefing #siriusxm
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Linda Yueh @lindayueh.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
CfM-NIESR survey found that professional economists continue to place the greatest confidence in the ONS's consumer price statistics. Labour market statistics attracting the lowest levels of confidence www.cfmsurvey.org/listsurveys/...
cfmsurvey.org
The Usefulness of ONS Statistics
Experts responding to the CfM-NIESR survey expressed the strongest confidence in ONS consumer price statistics, with weakest confidence in labour market statistics.
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Linda Yueh @lindayueh.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
The average worker in Norway firm survey spends 4.7 hours per week in meetings, with managers and professionals spending substantially more time in them than other workers. cepr.org/voxeu/column...
cepr.org
Why we spend so much time in meetings
Few features of modern work are as widely criticised as meetings. Using data from over 9,000 workers in Norway, this column examines how meetings are organised and their effects on firm outcomes. The ...
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Linda Yueh @lindayueh.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
US-China trade war reshaped manufacturing activity far beyond the two directly targeted economies, but not in one uniform direction. Industries in the intermediate stages of global value chains were squeezed from two sides cepr.org/voxeu/column...
cepr.org
Beyond trade diversion: How the US-China trade war reshaped global production
Trade wars do not simply redirect exports; they also reshape the costs of production, disrupt supplier-customer relationships, and trigger adjustments within multinational firms’ global affiliate netw...
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Linda Yueh @lindayueh.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
Sharp rise in long-term interest rates since 2020 is difficult to explain from slow-moving fundamentals. Narrow windows around nonfarm payroll releases and speeches by Fed capture 80-90% of observed increase in long-term US yields despite covering only 24% of trading days cepr.org/voxeu/column...
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Anatomy of a rise: Monetary policy and the post-Covid surge in long-term interest rates
The sharp rise in long-term interest rates since 2020 is difficult to explain from slow-moving fundamentals. This column shows that narrow windows around nonfarm payroll releases and speeches by promi...
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Linda Yueh @lindayueh.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
As the war in Iran unfolded, foreign investors sold $82 billion of emerging-market portfolio assets in a single month, a record in recent years according to the latest OECD data cepr.org/voxeu/column...
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Building resilience to global financial shocks in emerging markets
Emerging markets are vulnerable to sudden shifts in investor sentiment, which can lead to pressure on exchange rates and financing conditions. Using panel evidence from 23 emerging markets, this colum...
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Linda Yueh @lindayueh.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
An internal labour market is also an information system. As employees work for an organisation, the firm accumulates information about their abilities, performance, and suitability for different jobs. The value of that information depends on managers cepr.org/voxeu/column...
cepr.org
Productive firms can better spot and deploy their internal talent
When a job vacancy opens, the manager faces a choice: to hire from outside the organisation, or to fill the position with an existing employee through a promotion or horizontal move. This column uses ...
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Linda Yueh @lindayueh.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
Solar and wind have become the cheapest sources of new electricity almost everywhere, yet Europe is now switching them off in record numbers. cepr.org/index%2ephp/...
cepr.org
The energy transition: Progress and challenges
Solar and wind have become the cheapest sources of new electricity almost everywhere, yet Europe is now switching them off in record numbers. This column argues that the binding constraint on the ener...
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Linda Yueh @lindayueh.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
Electricity affordability has moved to the centre of the US political debate (Saad 2026). Between 2020 and 2025, the average residential electricity price rose from 13.15 to 17.30 cents per kilowatt-hour, an increase of almost one-third in nominal terms cepr.org/index%2ephp/...
cepr.org
How data centres affect electricity prices and for whom
Increases in US electricity prices since 2020 have coincided with a sharp rise in demand from data centres. This column analyses the impact of the surge in data centre growth since 2021 on electricity...
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Linda Yueh @lindayueh.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
The first lesson is that a wage floor does more than change pay. It changes the design of jobs, the demand for training, the span of managerial control, and the distribution of employment across layers. cepr.org/voxeu/column...
cepr.org
How minimum wages reshape firms and their productivity from within
How far can minimum wages rise without damaging jobs and output? This column uses evidence from France to show that firms respond not only by employing fewer workers, but also by increasing training a...
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Linda Yueh @lindayueh.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
The top generative-AI task in each data source cepr.org/voxeu/column...
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Linda Yueh @lindayueh.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
Financial repression rose during the interwar period & peaked around World War II, amid wartime financing needs & heightened state intervention. It remained elevated through the Bretton Woods era before receding during the subsequent period of capital account liberalisation. cepr.org/voxeu/column...
cepr.org
Quantifying financial repression through the lens of portfolio choice: A century of evidence
With public debt at high peacetime levels, how advanced economies can reduce debt burdens is again at the centre of policy debate. This column examines the role of financial repression, perhaps the le...
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Linda Yueh @lindayueh.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
I look forward to speaking at The Next 250 Years | SPE & Adam Smith Institute marking the 250th anniversary of Adam Smith's The Wealth of Nations spe.org.uk/whats-on/eve... More on Adam Smith in my Great Economists book: www.amazon.co.uk/Great-Econom...
amazon.co.uk
The Great Economists: How Their Ideas Can Help Us Today: Amazon.co.uk: Yueh, Linda: 9780241974476: Books
Buy The Great Economists: How Their Ideas Can Help Us Today 1 by Yueh, Linda (ISBN: 9780241974476) from Amazon's Book Store. Everyday low prices and free delivery on eligible orders.
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Linda Yueh @lindayueh.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
I join the panel from 5:00-5:30am to review the business news of the week #wutm # bbcradio #5live
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Linda Yueh @lindayueh.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
Exclusivity is not a free lunch. Suppliers often have to make investments tailored to one particular customer, retooling a production line or training staff on a specific process, that are hard to spell out fully in a contract in advance. cepr.org/voxeu/column...
cepr.org
Spilling secrets and shrinking chains: How weak laws narrow supply networks
Modern manufacturing often requires firms to share confidential information with outside suppliers, some of whom also supply their competitors. Using more than 160,000 contracts from the global automo...
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Linda Yueh @lindayueh.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
4 years into the full-scale invasion, the cost of Ukraine’s reconstruction and recovery is almost $600 billion over the next decade. TEU leaders agreed a €90 billion loan for 2026 and 2027 after failing to bridge differences over a loan backed by immobilised Russian assets cepr.org/voxeu/column...
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A view to a kill…ing of productivity: The allocative cost of war in Ukraine
Estimates of the cost of Russia’s war on Ukraine are dominated by what the war destroys. This column measures a second cost: the labour and capital that survive but end up stuck in low-value uses. Fir...
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Linda Yueh @lindayueh.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
Fed research finds evidence that the global oil supply elasticity has remained close to zero even after the surge in US shale oil production cepr.org/voxeu/column...
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The price elasticity of US shale oil supply: Insights from a natural experiment
The 2026 Iran war provides a natural experiment that allows model-free estimation of the price elasticity of US shale oil supply. This column argues that the monthly and quarterly elasticities are eff...
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Linda Yueh @lindayueh.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
The Office for Budgetary Responsibility (OBR)’s most recent published estimates suggest that the cumulative net lifetime loss from the BOE’s Asset Purchase Facility (APF) might amount to £164 billion by the end of 2036 cepr.org/voxeu/column...
cepr.org
Some questions that a Bank of England review should ask
The Bank of England is approaching the 30th anniversary of operational independence and a wide-ranging review is likely. With growing political interest in the issue, this column suggests five measure...
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Linda Yueh @lindayueh.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
In 2024, the Columbia Journalism Review published an article titled “They gave local news away for free. Virtually nobody wanted it.” While 2,529 people were offered a free subscription to their local newspapers, only 44 accepted – that is, less than 2% cepr.org/voxeu/column...
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Mission possible: Making teenagers read newspapers
Is declining news consumption among young people inevitable? This column reports on a large-scale randomised controlled trial in France to test whether free access to a major newspaper and teacher tra...
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Linda Yueh @lindayueh.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
The researchers find evidence of an inverted U-curve between workforce age and AI adoption, with adoption being weaker where the age distribution is tilted towards young or elderly workers. cepr.org/voxeu/column...
cepr.org
Workers’ age and AI adoption
Numerous studies have analysed the effects of AI on productivity, growth and employment. Few of these focus on the factors that promote or hinder the uptake of AI. Drawing on the results of a European...
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Linda Yueh @lindayueh.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
Around 40% of the value added of the supply chain is generated by car manufacturers, with the remaining 60% split between direct suppliers and indirect suppliers. Sectoral composition of the automotive supply chain, 2022 cepr.org/index%2Ephp/...
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Linda Yueh @lindayueh.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
Around 20 million barrels per day of crude oil and oil products, together with around 110 billion cubic metres of liquefied natural gas per year normally transit through the Strait, roughly one quarter of global seaborne oil trade and close to one fifth of global LNG trade cepr.org/voxeu/column...
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Energy markets under chokepoint stress: The 2026 Hormuz shock
The 2026 Middle East conflict and the disruption of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz generated the largest physical supply disruption in the history of global energy markets. This column examines ...
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Linda Yueh @lindayueh.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
The resulting cash-flow trajectory is commonly described as a J-curve: operating losses deepen during the investment phase and recover only if the company succeeds in scaling. cepr.org/voxeu/column...
cepr.org
Financing the startup J-curve
High-growth startups often lose money before they make it. This column examines whether differences in financing capacity are reflected in the cash flow and growth trajectories of startups in Sweden, ...
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Linda Yueh @lindayueh.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
Global current account imbalances are widening again. China’s surpluses have prompted warnings of a second ‘China shock’, and research on exchange rates and industrial policies is proliferating in response. cepr.org/index%2Ephp/...
cepr.org
How exchange rate policy reshapes global supply chains and productivity growth
Global current account imbalances are widening again. This column argues that currency undervaluation, supported by reserve accumulation under capital controls, can permanently reshape industrial stru...
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Linda Yueh @lindayueh.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
US federal government debt exceeded $40 trillion for the first time on 18 August 2026. This prompted warnings about credibility. On 19 August 2026 Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced expanded buybacks of longer-term Treasury debt to drive down long-term interest rates cepr.org/voxeu/column...
cepr.org
Fiscal unsustainability and capture: $40 trillion Treasury debt does not measure the risks; enhanced long-term repurchases don't improve them
US federal government debt exceeded $40 trillion in August 2026, triggering concerns about fiscal credibility and sustainability. This column argues that fiscal sustainability should be assessed using...
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