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Lewie Pollis

@lewispoll.is
2.1K followers 663 following 6.4K posts

Dog dad. Cheesesteak enthusiast. Data scientist (not the evil kind). He/him Words on sports, food, and politics here: www.thelewsletter.lewispoll.is/subs…

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Lewie Pollis @lewispoll.is · 24m
What do you guys think, do these look good enough to share?
Two trays of lasagna cooling on the counter
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Lewie Pollis @lewispoll.is · 23h
Featuring meeting relatives from both sides of our family, @mrslewsonfirst.bsky.social going to Disneyland while I worked, and winning Star Wasrs bar trivia in a language we don’t speak
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Lewie Pollis @lewispoll.is · 23h
The Judgment of Paris: Très bien!
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Lewie Pollis @lewispoll.is · 01/10/2026
What an absolutely bananas combination of speakers
Social media flier advertising the Brown Political Union speaker series, with pictures of the featured guests: Francesca Hong, David Morales, and Curtis Sliwa
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Lewie Pollis @lewispoll.is · 30/09/2026
I wrote this passage a few months before the more-in-depth study in the QT. It's where the seeds of the later analysis were planted:
Which brings us to the third and most-interesting option. If teams want to avoid stretching their bullpens too thin in October, the obvious solution would be to leave their starters in longer. To plan on letting their aces pitch deep into games, to tolerate their mid-rotation arms going a third time through the order, to not pull their Game 4 starter at the first sign of trouble. It would mean seeing durability in the postseason as a priority, not just an incidental luxury. Keeping the pitch count low, turning over a lineup multiple times, and pacing yourself through the middle innings may be seen as more-valuable skills than dominating for three innings at a time.

If Spahn and Sain and a bullpen game were no longer enough for a playoff rotation, teams with championship aspirations would have to develop or acquire some legitimate old-school starters. The ability to pitch deep into games is not something that most players can just pick up at the end of September.4 So as teams placed renewed importance on being able to throw six or seven innings each time out, the pitching approach you’d expect from such innings-eaters would make a comeback during the regular season, too: lower velocities, more pitches in the zone, and most importantly, fewer strikeouts. Baseball could start to turn back the clock.
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Lewie Pollis @lewispoll.is · 30/09/2026
…and here are this week’s batches
Two trays of lasagna cooling on the counterTwo trays of lasagna cooling on the counter
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Lewie Pollis @lewispoll.is · 29/09/2026
Our favorite Thai place just announced they were under new management and immediately started posting stuff like this. Come on man
A very sloppy GenAI flier advertising deals for a Thai restaurant
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Lewie Pollis @lewispoll.is · 28/09/2026
And to jump ahead a few weeks: This is also an argument for why Cristopher Sánchez has more than a devil's-advocate case to beat Misiorowski for the Cy Young
The trend is noisy, as some of the samples are tiny (only five games went to extras after a starter threw nine full innings) and this measurement definitionally favors mid-inning pitching changes (the more outs there are when a reliever enters, the fewer opportunities for them to be charged with runs). Nevertheless, the results validate this theory. The three longest durations in the data also have the lowest ERAs. Every start length of 5.2 innings or more leads to an aggregate 3.80 ERA or better from the bullpen; all but one duration of 16 outs or fewer yields a reliever ERA over 3.90. If you regress the bullpen’s performance on when they were called into duty across every game in the dataset, each additional out a starter records is associated with a four-point improvement in bullpen ERA. Which equates to 12 points of ERA improvement per inning.

To pick out the two most-common start lengths, 41 percent of MLB starts over the last three years lasted either 15 or 18 outs. The league-wide bullpen ERA when the first reliever enters after five innings is 4.04. After six innings, it drops 33 points, to 3.71. The concept isn’t rocket science. It’s almost too tautological to be interesting. But people usually conceptualize saving the relievers’ bullets as an abstract aspiration, not as a managerial decision with a tangible impact. The freshness and flexibility of the bullpen is not a side effect of optimizing pitching strategy. It is a key component of it.The second is that conventional value metrics underrate innings-eaters. Wins Above Replacement is a function of playing time: every inning pitched by a big-league-caliber player is an inning not delegated to an emergency call-up. But while dipping into the eponymous replacement-level pool is frictionless in theory, actual players take up roster spots. Shuttling in a fresh arm to help out a tired staff means sending another reliever down for two weeks, and you can’t make a waiver claim in the fourth inning because your starter got shelled in the third. If there is tangible second-order value in lightening the bullpen’s workload, then starters deserve credit not just for the innings they pitch but for the innings their teammates don’t have to pitch.
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Lewie Pollis @lewispoll.is · 28/09/2026
This specific combination is a known Chicago thing! I had it when I was there a few years ago and it was fantastic. These are Emparogis: www.instagram.com/p/CbczcaKOST...
A dish of pierogi-empanada fusion dumplings
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Lewie Pollis @lewispoll.is · 27/09/2026
Never in doubt.
A dry-erase board reading MAGIC NUMBER 0
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Lewie Pollis @lewispoll.is · 26/09/2026
You can say what you want about the French, but they are innovators in the field of “letting you walk around the airport with a reasonably priced 7% beer”
A can of beer with a yellow label reading la Goudale
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Lewie Pollis @lewispoll.is · 24/09/2026
Guess who just won Star Wars bar trivia in a language I don’t even speak
A man with a huge smile takes a selfie in a bar with a Star Wars Lego set
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Lewie Pollis @lewispoll.is · 20/09/2026
The Crunchwrap of Notre Dame
A selfie of two people holding crepes in front of the Notre Dame
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Lewie Pollis @lewispoll.is · 19/09/2026
Another year older and she’s already being recognized as a classic. Bon anniversaire, @mrslewsonfirst.bsky.social!
A woman poses in front of an empty frame in a hall at The Louvre
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Lewie Pollis @lewispoll.is · 15/09/2026
I'm biased but I thought this was a measured analysis of why people had so little patience with Smiley. If anything I was charitable in focusing on the unique challenge of a 3+ foot snowfall instead of the more-mundane job of constituent communication. Nope! Even this was worth arguing with me over
A prolonged spell of bitter-cold temperatures left the shoddy conditions visible (and still treacherous) for weeks — until it was all buried in a generational Nor’easter that dumped a record-breaking 38 inches of snow in Providence. Again the city shut down as Smiley scrambled to respond. It took until the third day for even the first narrow strip of our street to be plowed beneath the height of our cars’ wheel wells. In this instance I actually thought Smiley caught too much flack. There is only so much you can do to prepare for an unprecedented meteorological event. Conditions were so bad that even the city’s plows could not operate, and other states lent their specialized equipment to dig Rhode Island out. (The preexisting sheet of ice buried beneath the fresh three-plus feet of snow didn’t help.) But Smiley, like so many modern technocrats who keep being baffled when their hypocrisies prove consequential for public opinion, had left his constituents out in the cold just weeks prior. It’s no surprise that his subsequent calls for patience met with an icy reception.
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Lewie Pollis @lewispoll.is · 15/09/2026
The second blizzard of 2026 was hard for everyone. For the first one, other areas far exceeded Providence's responsiveness and communication. When that happens under a mayor who was elected on a pledge to clear snow well, people notice. So Smiley lost the benefit of the doubt before the next storm.
“Why is it that every time it snows, it’s as if it’s the first time we’ve ever plowed?” Smiley asked. “It shouldn’t take days to do snow removal, and proper snow removal includes not just cleaning the streets, but sidewalks and bike lanes.”

Somewhere along the way Smiley must have changed his mind. This past January, a blizzard covered the city in about 16 inches of snow. A lot, though certainly not unheard of for winter in New England. But Smiley’s administration seemed completely unprepared. To steal his phrase, it was indeed as though it were the first time the city had ever plowed, and constituents noticed. Cleanup in Providence lagged well behind that in other nearby municipalities. You could tell where the city borders were by how the condition of the streets abruptly changed when you passed over them. Communication was abysmal. Two days after the blizzard, by which point the city had proclaimed the roads safe for vehicles, a loop of lasagna deliveries that I could normally do in 20 minutes took me nearly two hours of white-knuckling through frictionless ice sheets and impassable snow drifts. Sidewalks and bike lanes that the mayor had deemed essential before taking office were simply never touched. Meanwhile, Smiley monitored the situation from afar while attending a conference in Washington, D.C.
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Lewie Pollis @lewispoll.is · 15/09/2026
None of the four players listed hit a double that night. Only Lofton is even listed in the right spot in the batting order
The Major League Baseball record for the most consecutive team plate appearances resulting in a double is four, which is achieved by four batters hitting back-to-back-to-back-to-back doubles.Because official team records usually trace totals per inning rather than strict plate-appearance sequences, tracing every instance is difficult. However, the modern benchmark for a game's opening frame belongs to the Cleveland Indians (now Guardians), who started a game with four consecutive doubles against the Baltimore Orioles on April 12, 1998.Here is how that rare sequence unfolded to start the top of the 1st inning:1st Plate Appearance: Kenny Lofton (Double)2nd Plate Appearance: Omar Vizquel (Double)3rd Plate Appearance: Manny Ramirez (Double)4th Plate Appearance: David Justice (Double)
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Lewie Pollis @lewispoll.is · 14/09/2026
Brisket, Cooper Sharp, basil salt on grilled schmaltz-infused challah
The sandwich described in the post
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Lewie Pollis @lewispoll.is · 14/09/2026
This is the most-quintessential Brett Smiley story I have ever heard. Ideology aside, it's so satisfying that this guy ended up as the first incumbent mayor to lose a primary in the history of Providence. This backlash, as much as insurgent left, is the story of Rhode Island's election last week.
Last October, long before the Providence mayoral primary was at the forefront of voters’ minds, a friend was canvassing to get the word out about an upstart progressive challenger named David Morales. She rang at the door of a large house on the East Side, introduced herself as a volunteer for Morales’ campaign, and started her voter-outreach spiel: “What issues do you care about?”

The man at the door, who is apparently harder to recognize when not wearing his signature circle-frame specs, was Brett Smiley. The prospect of polite conversation with an engaged constituent made him visibly uncomfortable. “I don’t want to embarrass you, but I’m the mayor.” He said the issue he cared about was “I’d like to keep my job,” then awkwardly shuffled back inside.

This was pretty benign as far as Smiley stories go. It’s funny, not malicious — unlike, say, his darkening Morales’ skin in a campaign attack ad. Yet it perfectly illustrates the fundamental problem with both Smiley’s administration and his campaign.

Imagine this scene, so saccharine that even Aaron Sorkin would roll his eyes: an idealistic activist gets a surprise audience with the top dog, who in turn has a chance to encourage a youthful constituent’s civic engagement while setting her straight about how things really work at City Hall. In a state that’s hardly known for political energy, a young voter who cares enough about municipal elections to be knocking doors 11 months before a primary is exactly the kind of person with whom a small-city mayor should be thrilled to engage. Instead, Smiley walked away.
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Lewie Pollis @lewispoll.is · 13/09/2026
Here we go Brownies!
A selfie of a man glasses with a chihuahua. Both are wearing Browns jerseys
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Lewie Pollis @lewispoll.is · 11/09/2026
I guess Kirk Van Houten is moving out
Screenshot from a Facebook listing of a free race car bed
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Lewie Pollis @lewispoll.is · 10/09/2026
Jackie Goldman won and Brett Smiley, who called Goldman a "crazy person," lost
Screenshot from an article about Brett Smiley (the incumbent mayor who just lost his primary election) calling city council candidate Jackie Goldman (who won) a "crazy person"
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Lewie Pollis @lewispoll.is · 10/09/2026
We Pokémon Went to the polls 🥲
Hillary Clinton saying "Pokémon Go to the polls"
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Lewie Pollis @lewispoll.is · 10/09/2026
Still very early but 👀
Screenshot of early returns from the Providence election results website, showing David Morales leading Brett Smiley winning with 56% of the vote
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Lewie Pollis @lewispoll.is · 10/09/2026
The bad news is, the brisket is so tender that it fell apart when I moved it out of the pot. The good news is, the brisket is so tender that it fell apart when I moved it out of the pot.
A no-longer-intact brisket in a foil tray
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Lewie Pollis @lewispoll.is · 09/09/2026
Nine hours later
A cooked brisket in a Dutch oven
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Lewie Pollis @lewispoll.is · 09/09/2026
*GEICO camel voice* Guess what day it is
An uncooked brisket squished into a Dutch oven
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Lewie Pollis @lewispoll.is · 09/09/2026
I commented on a post for a new pizza place saying I wished I could see actual pictures of their food, and they had the audacity to reply that these are real photos
AI slop image featuring a very obviously not real Sour Cream pizzaAI slop image featuring a very obviously not real Pesto pizzaAI slop image featuring a very obviously not real Spinach-Buffalo Mozzarella pizzaAI slop image featuring a very obviously not real Fries pizza
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Lewie Pollis @lewispoll.is · 09/09/2026
Forgot to post these when I made them last night
Two trays of lasagna cooling on the counterTwo trays of lasagna cooling on the counter
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Lewie Pollis @lewispoll.is · 07/09/2026
Cracking this honeymoon souvenir for our fifth-anniversary weekend
A goblet of dark beer next to a wax-covered bottle labeled CANADIAN LUNCH
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Lewie Pollis @lewispoll.is · 06/09/2026
Not a big fan of punching left but this would be a pretty good line
Screenshot from The Simpsons of David Byrne singing "His Leftorium is an emporium of woe!"
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Lewie Pollis @lewispoll.is · 04/09/2026
And every single day we smile about the time we threw a party for all our friends and family in the dinosaur hall. Happy five years to @mrslewsonfirst.bsky.social*, my ride-or-go-extinct! *I did not make her pick this handle
A bride and groom kiss in front of a waterfallA bride and groom standing in front of a stegosaurusA bride and groom holding hands and looking excited
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Lewie Pollis @lewispoll.is · 04/09/2026
A lot has happened in five years. We moved three states away, and then around the corner. We each changed careers. We’ve been to four new countries, the World Series, and our first shared Springsteen concerts. We each told the other “I trust you” when ordering takeout more times than I could count.
A bride taps a groom on the shoulder before their first lookA black and white photo of a bride and groom looking lovingly at a dog they are holding A bride and groom sitting on some marble steps
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Lewie Pollis @lewispoll.is · 04/09/2026
Five years! That’s a long time. A baby born the day we said “I do” would be older now than I was when I told my mom I would never get married unless it was at the dinosaur museum — with the prescient observation that this would be a good test of whether my future wife and I were fit for each other.
A bride and groom kiss under a dinosaur fossil
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Lewie Pollis @lewispoll.is · 03/09/2026
What are you doing to be a good neighbor tonight? lasagnalove.org/volunteer
Two trays of lasagna cooling on the counterTwo trays of lasagna cooling on the counter
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Lewie Pollis @lewispoll.is · 02/09/2026
Good news: I finally found a legitimately good cheesesteak in Rhode Island (besides the ones I make) The twist: it's chicken. www.instagram.com/p/Dcv8CqxR-H-/
A tray of two sandwiches and pierogi
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Lewie Pollis @lewispoll.is · 29/08/2026
Made a great joke about Greek fire to a friend who didn’t get it so I’m consoling myself with the best album about joining the Byzantine military ever recorded
Album cover of Stand Up and Fight by Turisas
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Lewie Pollis @lewispoll.is · 29/08/2026
Pokémon Went to the Polls
Selfie of a man wearing a Pokémon L hat and an I VOTED sticker standing in City Hall
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Lewie Pollis @lewispoll.is · 28/08/2026
For Mr. Curry
The album cover of The Rocky Horror Picture Show propped up on a “NOW PLAYING” shelf sign
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Lewie Pollis @lewispoll.is · 26/08/2026
So now, having pulled these out of the oven (I'm delivering these ones cold tomorrow), I ask: Will you join me in bringing cheesy comfort to neighbors in need? And if not, will you at least share this in case anyone in your circles would like to pitch in? lasagnalove.org/volunteer
Two trays of lasagna cooling on the counter
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Lewie Pollis @lewispoll.is · 26/08/2026
Hi, folks. I just got back from dropping off these two lasagne to some families nearby who are going through a hard time. While I wait for a couple more to come out of the oven, I'm asking you — yes, you! — to lend a hand if you can, through Lasagna Love.
Two trays of lasagna cooling on the counter
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Lewie Pollis @lewispoll.is · 23/08/2026
Even if Watson had played well — and this was the biggest player-evaluation whiff in any major sport in my lifetime, especially since a reasonable analyst would have considered that his having sat out for so long increased his risk profile — the deal made no sense for the Browns' contention window
And even if Watson had played well, the trade was fundamentally oxymoronic in its motivations. Cleveland finally had an incumbent quarterback who could play at a respectable level, even after a down year when he was banged-up. But heading into the 2022 they convinced themselves that Mayfield was holding the team back, and upgrading under center was essential for making the most of their nascent contention window. Fair enough. Naturally they traded for a quarterback whom everyone knew was facing a lengthy suspension that would cost him much (if not all) of the following season. By dealing their next three years of first-round draft picks, the Browns doubled down on 2022 being their best chance to win a trophy — while simultaneously punting that season by building the roster around a player who would miss it. This dissonance was apparent at the time even to a schmuck like me. Why didn’t it occur to Berry?
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Lewie Pollis @lewispoll.is · 23/08/2026
It's true that this opinion was widespread, including among a number of NFL front offices. Having said that, if even I, a schmuck on my couch could see that this deal was a trainwreck before the beginning of Watson's first training camp (note the timestamp), we can't say everyone drank the Kool-Aid
Screenshot of a tweet from me on June 28, 2022

"One of the grossest public moral compromises of my lifetime is also shaping up to be the worst trade in the history of professional sports. I love being a Browns fan"
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Lewie Pollis @lewispoll.is · 22/08/2026
This is from two years ago but it applies to basically his entire career www.thelewsletter.lewispoll.is/p/what-is-th...
There was a dark symmetry to Watson suffering a gruesome injury the day Nick Chubb returned from his own. Chubb blew out his knee last September, which many feared would end his career. Barely a year later, the indefatigable running back was back on the field. He even scored a touchdown in his first game of the year.

I think about the Herculean effort it took for Chubb to get back in playing shape, the passion he described in a poignant Players Tribune essay last week, the courage he showed in putting his body and livelihood on the line to return this brutal sport — and I am infuriated by the contrast with his employers’ vain stubbornness, moral depravity, and steadfast commitment to mediocrity. Everyone knows what it’s like to realize that a project you poured so much time and energy into didn’t actually matter. Now imagine how Chubb must feel.
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Lewie Pollis @lewispoll.is · 20/08/2026
Saw this on LinkedIn and I personally endorse any modeling approach that says the most-similar city in the world to Cleveland is Barcelona
A color-coded graph charting major world cities on twin axes of Cost of Living vs. Quality of Life
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Lewie Pollis @lewispoll.is · 20/08/2026
"This time, you might win"? Buddy, that's a skill issue. Here's a photo I dug up from when I was in college:
Six stuffed animals arranged on a coin machine captioned "10 minutes with a claw machine"
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Lewie Pollis @lewispoll.is · 19/08/2026
Ah yes, that famous celebrity we all know and love: Kelly Couco
Screenshot of a Bluesky DM from kellycouco97.bsky.social

You should google about me so you can talk to me with some lever of respect
Kelly Couco
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Lewie Pollis @lewispoll.is · 19/08/2026
Reading my mentions after a post blows up
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Lewie Pollis @lewispoll.is · 18/08/2026
What the fuck is wrong with people
For the first time ever, prop bets are being offered for players competing in the Little League Baseball World Series (LLBWS).
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Lewie Pollis @lewispoll.is · 18/08/2026
I'll tell you what, these are some of the best-smelling lasagne I've ever made
Two trays of lasagna cooling on the counterTwo trays of lasagna cooling on the counter
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