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🇫🇮 Finland (Vans) - TTM Market Split Oct24–Sep25 vs Oct25–Sep26 +0.1pp BEV (17.8% → 17.9%) +1.5pp PHEV (3.3% → 4.7%) +0.0pp HEV (0.0% → 0.0%) −1.5pp ICE (78.9% → 77.4%) Graphs are available in the Gallery: leraffl.github.io/LeRaffl-Gallery

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LeRaffl @leraffl.bsky.social · 10h

What you can see nicely here: PHEV shows up only from late 2024 onwards. BEV lost some speed in 2024 globally, but ICE didn't really change in share, the difference just goes to PHEV. They're Vans, there just isn't that much choice yet. 🤷🏻‍♂️

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LeRaffl @leraffl.bsky.social · 10h

Battery electric Vans in Finland have been at around 15-20% for a bit now, though it still seems within natural fluctuations.

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LeRaffl @leraffl.bsky.social · 10h

🇫🇮 Finland (Vans) - September 26 - BEV Trajectory 19.4% BEV 4.5% PHEV 76.0% ICE Trailing 12 months are: 17.9% BEV 4.7% PHEV 77.4% ICE Graphs are available in the Gallery: leraffl.github.io/LeRaffl-Gallery

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LeRaffl @leraffl.bsky.social · 11h

And unlike Ireland or Spain, there's no PHEV wave in Vans here. It's straight from Diesel to BEV. You can see it in the time chart too: the ICE and BEV lines sit right on top of each other, whatever ICE loses goes straight to BEV.

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LeRaffl @leraffl.bsky.social · 11h

🇮🇱 Israel (Vans) - TTM Market Split Oct24–Sep25 vs Oct25–Sep26 +2.7pp BEV (4.1% → 6.9%) +0.2pp PHEV (0.0% → 0.2%) −0.2pp HEV (0.9% → 0.7%) −2.8pp ICE (94.9% → 92.2%) HEV peaked at 1.0% in 2026-01 (declining for 8 months).

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LeRaffl @leraffl.bsky.social · 11h

While BEV share in Israel's cars got cut in half since 2024, Vans just kept going. Every single year a bit more BEV, 2.9% in 2024, 4.7% in 2025 and 6.7% so far in 2026. Small market though, about 700–1,000 Vans a month, so single months jump around a lot.

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LeRaffl @leraffl.bsky.social · 11h

🇮🇱 Israel (Vans) - September 26 - BEV Trajectory 10.5% BEV 0.9% PHEV 88.6% ICE (of which 1.5%p were HEV) Trailing 12 months are: 6.9% BEV 0.2% PHEV 92.9% ICE (of which 0.7%p were HEV) Graphs are available in the Gallery: leraffl.github.io/LeRaffl-Gallery

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LeRaffl @leraffl.bsky.social · 12h

Same thing as in Ireland: ICE is falling faster than BEV is rising, PHEV fills the gap. Just much slower here, the ICE expectation has been flat at around 24 years for most of 2026.

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LeRaffl @leraffl.bsky.social · 12h

🇪🇸 Spain (Vans) - TTM Market Split Oct24–Sep25 vs Oct25–Sep26 +1.0pp BEV (5.1% → 6.2%) +1.3pp PHEV (1.6% → 2.9%) +0.0pp HEV (0.6% → 0.6%) −2.4pp ICE (92.7% → 90.3%) HEV peaked at 1.4% in 2024-10 (declining for 23 months).

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LeRaffl @leraffl.bsky.social · 12h

Vans in Spain are at 6.2% BEV over the last 12 months. Almost exactly where Ireland's Vans are (6.5%), even though Spain's cars are at about 11% BEV and Ireland's at almost 28%. September is provisional, it's from the DGT daily files.

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LeRaffl @leraffl.bsky.social · 12h

🇪🇸 Spain (Vans) - September 26 - BEV Trajectory 5.5% BEV 2.9% PHEV 91.6% ICE (of which 0.1%p were HEV) Trailing 12 months are: 6.2% BEV 2.9% PHEV 90.9% ICE (of which 0.6%p were HEV) Graphs are available in the Gallery: leraffl.github.io/LeRaffl-Gallery

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LeRaffl @leraffl.bsky.social · 13h

The time chart is noisy, small market. But since early 2025 the ICE expectation keeps dropping, while BEV stays stuck around 20+ years. Same pattern as in Italy's rental fleets: ICE is going, just not straight to BEV.

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LeRaffl @leraffl.bsky.social · 13h

🇮🇪 Ireland (Vans) - TTM Market Split Oct24–Sep25 vs Oct25–Sep26 +1.1pp BEV (5.3% → 6.5%) +2.0pp PHEV (1.5% → 3.5%) +0.5pp HEV (0.4% → 0.8%) −3.5pp ICE (92.8% → 89.3%) Graphs are available in the Gallery: leraffl.github.io/LeRaffl-Gallery

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LeRaffl @leraffl.bsky.social · 13h

ICE is currently falling faster than BEV is rising, and that gap is what the PHEV curve shows.

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LeRaffl @leraffl.bsky.social · 13h

Vans in Ireland are way behind the cars. 6.5% BEV over the last 12 months, cars are at almost 28%. What's new is PHEV. Basically nonexistent in vans until last year, now 7–8% in August and September, about as much as BEV.

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LeRaffl @leraffl.bsky.social · 13h

🇮🇪 Ireland (Vans) - September 26 - BEV Trajectory 8.3% BEV 7.2% PHEV 84.5% ICE (of which 1.3%p were HEV) Trailing 12 months are: 6.5% BEV 3.5% PHEV 90.1% ICE (of which 0.8%p were HEV) Graphs are available in the Gallery: leraffl.github.io/LeRaffl-Gallery

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LeRaffl @leraffl.bsky.social · 15h

The market is growing too. On the trailing-12 chart it goes from 36.3k cars to 56.2k since the start of 2023.

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LeRaffl @leraffl.bsky.social · 15h

Last 12 months Uruguay registered 56.2k cars. 25.2k of them were BEV, 21.6k were petrol. This year so far it's 20.6k BEV out of 41.8k cars, against 13.8k petrol. Since April, every month has had more BEV than petrol.

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LeRaffl @leraffl.bsky.social · 16h

Update für September poste ich die Tage.

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LeRaffl @leraffl.bsky.social · 18h

Half the market is HEV. Poland is simply still in the HEV phase, and that's expected. BEV will follow once the phase plays out.

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LeRaffl @leraffl.bsky.social · 18h

🇵🇱 Poland - TTM Market Split Oct24–Sep25 vs Oct25–Sep26 +1.4pp BEV (5.1% → 6.6%) +3.9pp PHEV (4.5% → 8.4%) +0.6pp HEV (46.4% → 47.0%) −5.9pp ICE (44.0% → 38.0%) Graphs are available in the Gallery: leraffl.github.io/LeRaffl-Gallery

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LeRaffl @leraffl.bsky.social · 18h

Poland simply follows its version of the ICE -> HEV -> PHEV -> BEV process, with the occasional subsidy having a short term effect. They cut the program too soon though. As we've learned, subsidies have no permanent effect if cut too early.

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LeRaffl @leraffl.bsky.social · 18h

BEV at 6.2% is a bit behind last year's September (8.9%). Poland had a BEV subsidy program (NaszEauto, up to PLN 40k) running through 2025, which explains the higher share then. PHEV is growing faster than BEV right now (+3.9pp TTM vs +1.4pp).

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LeRaffl @leraffl.bsky.social · 18h

🇵🇱 Poland - September 26 - BEV Trajectory 6.2% BEV 8.8% PHEV 85.0% ICE (of which 48.6%p were HEV) Trailing 12 months are: 6.6% BEV 8.4% PHEV 85.0% ICE (of which 47.0%p were HEV) Graphs are available in the Gallery: leraffl.github.io/LeRaffl-Gallery

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LeRaffl @leraffl.bsky.social · 18h

Over 2026 YTD: BMW and Skoda are still narrowly ahead of Tesla. 10.1% BMW BEV market share, 9.8% Skoda and then Tesla at 9.4% and BYD at 9.1% as well as VW at 8.2%. The other 53.3% market share is split amongst <5% brands.

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LeRaffl @leraffl.bsky.social · 18h

Tesla had its usual end-of-quarter wave: 16% of all BEV in September were Teslas, almost 1 in 10 of all BEV was a Model Y alone.

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LeRaffl @leraffl.bsky.social · 18h

🇦🇹 Austria - TTM Market Split Oct24–Sep25 vs Oct25–Sep26 +4.1pp BEV (20.9% → 25.0%) +2.3pp PHEV (9.1% → 11.3%) +0.9pp HEV (28.7% → 29.6%) −7.3pp ICE (41.3% → 34.1%) If the changes from the last 6 months continued linearly, BEV would become the largest powertrain in 2027-05.

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LeRaffl @leraffl.bsky.social · 18h

Record BEV share in Austria! 33.6% in September, the previous high was 29.0% just last month. Also a record in absolute numbers, 9,723 BEV, the most Austria has ever registered in one month. Yes, September is typically a stronger month (Tesla end of quarter), but still.

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LeRaffl @leraffl.bsky.social · 18h

🇦🇹 Austria - September 26 - BEV Trajectory 33.6% BEV 10.3% PHEV 56.1% ICE (of which 26.4%p were HEV) Trailing 12 months are: 25.0% BEV 11.3% PHEV 63.7% ICE (of which 29.6%p were HEV) Graphs are available in the Gallery: leraffl.github.io/LeRaffl-Gallery

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LeRaffl @leraffl.bsky.social · 19h

I'll need to rework them anyways. Issue is already open, but you know... Time and tokens and stuff 😂🤷🏻‍♂️

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LeRaffl @leraffl.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

That is the best thing you can do to speed this thing up imho

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LeRaffl @leraffl.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

The NonRental model drops below 50% ICE around the end of the decade. Rental and Used extrapolate to around 75% then. The gap between the ICE and BEV curves are PHEV.

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LeRaffl @leraffl.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

NonRental is on a proper S-curve. Rental fleets and Used imports are barely leaving the floor.

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LeRaffl @leraffl.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

Still a delivery cycle thing. Tesla produces model 3 only outside of Europe, so all of that comes from overseas for example. @le-lio.bsky.social can probably elaborate on that.

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LeRaffl @leraffl.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

🇪🇸 Spain (Used) - TTM Market Split Oct24–Sep25 vs Oct25–Sep26 −0.3pp BEV (3.3% → 2.9%) +0.1pp PHEV (6.1% → 6.3%) +0.8pp HEV (7.0% → 7.8%) −0.6pp ICE (83.6% → 83.0%) PHEV peaked at 6.4% in 2026-03 (declining for 6 months).

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LeRaffl @leraffl.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

Used imports in Spain are about 156k over the last 12 months, roughly one for every eight new cars. Almost half of them are Diesel (49%), in new cars it's 5%. And BEV isn't going anywhere here.

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LeRaffl @leraffl.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

🇪🇸 Spain (Used) - September 26 - BEV Trajectory 2.1% BEV 6.2% PHEV (of which 0.1%p were EREV) 91.7% ICE (of which 8.3%p were HEV) Trailing 12 months are: 2.9% BEV 6.3% PHEV (of which 0.0%p were EREV) 90.8% ICE (of which 7.8%p were HEV)

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LeRaffl @leraffl.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

I wrote about the split between Rental and NonRental here: leraffl.github.io/LeRaffl-Gallery/a…

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LeRaffl @leraffl.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

Why does the BEV line in the time chart swing every year? Fleets buy most cars in spring for the tourist season, and those months have the lowest BEV share (March 2026: almost 62,000 cars, 2.8% BEV). Autumn and winter are small, with more BEV, so the expectation jumps every spring and calms down.

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LeRaffl @leraffl.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

🇪🇸 Spain (Rental) - TTM Market Split Oct24–Sep25 vs Oct25–Sep26 −0.1pp BEV (4.1% → 4.0%) +3.6pp PHEV (7.3% → 10.9%) +7.9pp HEV (38.7% → 46.6%) −11.5pp ICE (49.9% → 38.5%) Graphs are available in the Gallery: leraffl.github.io/LeRaffl-Gallery

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LeRaffl @leraffl.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

Rentals are about 36% of all new cars in Spain, but of all new BEV passenger cars registered, it's not 36% of them that are Rentals, but only about 14%. Rentals have a growing HEV share right now.

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LeRaffl @leraffl.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

🇪🇸 Spain (Rental) - September 26 - BEV Trajectory 5.0% BEV 13.1% PHEV (of which 0.1%p were EREV) 81.9% ICE (of which 52.0%p were HEV) Trailing 12 months are: 4.0% BEV 11.0% PHEV (of which 0.1%p were EREV) 84.9% ICE (of which 46.6%p were HEV)

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