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Leon Simons @leonsimons.com · 30/09/2026

A +5.34°C Sea Surface Temperature anomaly for the Niño 1 + 2 region! 🌊🌡📈 🤯

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Leon Simons @leonsimons.com · 18/09/2026

We could already face 2.5-3°C of global warming by 2050!

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Leon Simons @leonsimons.com · 16/09/2026

"Please, don't say a 100%! " "Call it 70% and let's just move on." H/t @ghostpanther.bsky.social

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Leon Simons @leonsimons.com · 12/09/2026

People lie and billions could die.

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Leon Simons @leonsimons.com · 10/09/2026

🌊🌡📈 Global Sea Surface Temperatures are being shattered yet again. This is probably unprecedented for 100s of thousands of years, based on paleoclimatology.

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Leon Simons @leonsimons.com · 08/09/2026

🚨🌊🌡📈 During the Southern Hemisphere (which holds most of the world's ocean) winter, global Sea Surface Temperatures have reached another record high!

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Leon Simons @leonsimons.com · 08/09/2026

"In the national defense arena, Vice President Cheney famously said that, if there is a one percent chance that Pakistani scientists are helping al-Qaeda build a nuclear weapon, “we have to treat it as a certainty in terms of our response.”" I estimate the chance of reaching 3°C by ~2050 to be >5%

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Leon Simons @leonsimons.com · 06/09/2026

If this data was about the cash flow of a major economy, it would be covered by media everywhere. But as it 'only' shows global heat flow, it won't be covered anywhere..

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Leon Simons @leonsimons.com · 04/09/2026

🚨The most important NASA graph in the world has another 6 months of data, and it looks even worse. 🚨 NASA CERES satellites measure how much sunlight Earth absorbs and how much heat is radiated back to space. The difference is heat accumulation, which has more than tripled over the past 26 years!

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Leon Simons @leonsimons.com · 03/09/2026

Are calling me an elephant? 😅 I expect discussions might have been somewhat similar to those described in the minutes of the IPCC AR6 SR SPM talks. When aerosols were left out, because "INDIA called for deleting it" And adding the invaluable figure WG1 SPM.2 was "opposed by SAUDI ARABIA and INDIA"

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Leon Simons @leonsimons.com · 03/09/2026

I now see you're part of the core team responsible for this new report. Why weren't aerosols addressed at all? bsky.app/profile/leon...

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Leon Simons @leonsimons.com · 03/09/2026

Then they should have included these graphs showing the actual physically possible methodology for "returning from higher temperatures" within decades. Omitting inconvenient truths doesn't help anyone who cares about what climate they have to live through this century.

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Leon Simons @leonsimons.com · 03/09/2026

Someone advised me to put this on a t shirt. Anyone who'd buy this?

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Leon Simons @leonsimons.com · 03/09/2026

I might have made a small change to the original

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Leon Simons @leonsimons.com · 03/09/2026

I imagine the authors' conversations about 'returning from higher temperatures' looked like this.

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Leon Simons @leonsimons.com · 02/09/2026

Unfortunately, the only effective methodology to 'return from higher temperatures' are Sunlight Reflection Methods (SRM), which aren’t covered either.

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Leon Simons @leonsimons.com · 02/09/2026

Speaking of broken records. 2023:

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Leon Simons @leonsimons.com · 02/09/2026

And another beautiful @unep.org Climate report completely failing to cover aerosols... 'Limiting overshoot Navigating exceedance of 1.5°C and pathways towards return' Reducing air pollution increases warming, especially regionally!

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Leon Simons @leonsimons.com · 22/08/2026

I've called Eliot the most terrible doomer of all before. Looking forward to talk to him again tomorrow. Please join us on Climate Chat.

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Leon Simons @leonsimons.com · 22/08/2026

According to this modeling atudy, aerosols limited warming of the Mediterranean Sea by about 1°C. The aerosol termination shock from land and shipping desulphurization is resulting in a permanent temperature increase. And the greenhouse gas forcing is still increasing at a record rate.

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Leon Simons @leonsimons.com · 22/08/2026

The Mediterranean is record warm

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Leon Simons @leonsimons.com · 21/08/2026

The Limits to growth report to The @clubofrome.org was published in 1972. After Europe's largest gas field (2,740 billion m³!) was discovered in the Netherlands and our coal mines closed. Many found it hard to believe limits to growth of fossil fuels were real. But here we are. Norway is next

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Leon Simons @leonsimons.com · 20/08/2026

Yes, in line with previous research, including our @drjamesehansen.bsky.social et al. 2023 Global warming in the pipeline paper. The risk of reaching +3°C by 2050 is real.

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Leon Simons @leonsimons.com · 18/08/2026

That's in line with evidence from paleoclimatology.

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Leon Simons @leonsimons.com · 17/08/2026

🌊🌡📈 This is getting ridiculous.. The regional aerosol termination (reduction of air pollution from clean air regulations) shock (>0.2°C per decade of additional warming) over land and seas most likely contributes to the height of this peak.

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Leon Simons @leonsimons.com · 16/08/2026

🚨"We note that most models are directly or indirectly tuned to match the observed temperature record and the net energy imbalance (Hourdin et al., 2017). However, to our knowledge, models are not systematically tuned to match observed historical SW or LW fluxes" 👇

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Leon Simons @leonsimons.com · 14/08/2026

THOSE DARN TREE HUGGERS CAUSED THE 1,017 UK WILDFIRES, PEOPLE! 🤦

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Leon Simons @leonsimons.com · 12/08/2026

Those darn doomers at, ... [checks notes] @nature.com.. www.nature.com/articles/d41...

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Leon Simons @leonsimons.com · 10/08/2026

Once in a while I see stuff that makes me think, humanity will get what it deserves...

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Leon Simons @leonsimons.com · 06/08/2026

🚨 🌊📈 New record high global average Sea Surface Temperature! The extreme Super El Niño heat in the tropical Pacific can't be missed.

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Leon Simons @leonsimons.com · 05/08/2026

Modeling teams have their work cur out for them. Many thought the high end model runs were very unlikely to come true. See purple dotted line for the actual El Niño temps for the main 3.4 region, compared to the forecasts from April. The biggest harm will come from underestimating tail risks:

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Leon Simons @leonsimons.com · 03/08/2026

How manny will keep denying acceleration of global warming is real if this central estimate of global temperature above pre-industrial materializes in 2027?

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Leon Simons @leonsimons.com · 02/08/2026

Great summary of why "Europe is hot as f*ck" this summer, by comedian Ryan Kelly on Instagram.

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Leon Simons @leonsimons.com · 02/08/2026

"The Netherlands can't stop climate change. Let's just embrace living under water." 🤦

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Leon Simons @leonsimons.com · 01/08/2026

Extreme summer heatwaves in the Mediterranean are the "new normal" (and it keeps getting more abnormal) The 2 x ~80% desulphurization of regional shipping (in 2020 maximum sulphur fuel content from 3.5% to 0.5% and in 2025 from 0.5% to 0.1%) definitely contributes to this. bsky.app/profile/leon...

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Leon Simons @leonsimons.com · 01/08/2026

It's even worse: Models don't take into account the reduction of aerosols over western-central Europe and underestimate regional warming by ~0.5 °C!! And summer warming by ~1.0 °C! Exacerbated summer European warming not captured by climate models neglecting long-term aerosol changes 2/

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Leon Simons @leonsimons.com · 01/08/2026

Europe’s Summer of Reckoning Is ‘Just the Beginning’ “2026 is just the beginning,” Professor Rockström added. “It will inevitably get worse. It will get worse and worse and worse to the point where, I’m afraid, we’ll be passing the limits of adaptation.” @nytimes.com 1/

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Leon Simons @leonsimons.com · 29/07/2026

US embassies are quite subtle, aren’t they? Could barely tell which country this one represents.

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Leon Simons @leonsimons.com · 28/07/2026

How long CO₂ lasts in the atmosphere largely depends on how much humanity keeps emitting, how much the world warms and how strong carbon-cycle feedbacks are and will be. See IPCC AR6 WG1 feedbacks figure, Ts.17 3/ @ghostpanther.bsky.social

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Leon Simons @leonsimons.com · 28/07/2026

"The 460 billion tonnes of carbon that humans have dug up and burned since 1850 is greater than the estimated amount of carbon present in all of the currently living plants and animals" 🤯 (From the good old twitter days👇) 2/

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