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Reposted by Lennard Welslau

Lucas Guttenberg @lucasguttenberg.bsky.social · 21/07/2025

Muss Deutschland jetzt viel mehr in den EU-Haushalt zahlen und ist Deutschland gar der Angeschmierte beim Vorschlag der EU-Kommission zum neuen Mehrjährigen Finanzrahmen? Die Antwort darauf ist kompliziert - aber schlecht kommt Deutschland sicher nicht weg. Warum? Stay with me:

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Reposted by Lennard Welslau

Lucas Guttenberg @lucasguttenberg.bsky.social · 19/03/2025

Because it fears a change of the EU fiscal rules, the Commission is resorting to a very far-reaching interpretation of the rules to make room for much more defense spending. This is a shortsighted mistake because it risks accidentally killing the rules altogether at the worst moment. Here is why:

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Reposted by Lennard Welslau

Jeromin Zettelmeyer @jzettelmeyer.bsky.social · 12/03/2025

I published a short note on the implications of a proposed constitutional amendment in Germany, which includes an 11% of GDP fund for infrastructure and permission to fund most military spending outside the debt brake’s maximum deficit of 0.35% of GDP (Thread, 1/9): www.bruegel.org/analysis/can...

bruegel.org

Can Germany afford to take most defence spending out of its debt brake?

Higher German defence spending would be fiscally sustainable, but would require cuts elsewhere and would breach EU fiscal rules

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Reposted by Lennard Welslau

Lucas Guttenberg @lucasguttenberg.bsky.social · 06/03/2025

Good outcome at the #EuCo on EU fiscal rules: National escape clause is branded as „immediate measure“ but the Commission is asked to explore further options (read: opening the rules). The insight seems to have kicked in that a prolonged use of the escape clause is probably not a good idea.

consilium.europa.eu

European Council conclusions on European defence, 6 March 2025

On 6 March, the European Council adopted conclusions on European defence.

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Lennard Welslau @lennardwelslau.bsky.social · 23/12/2024

Do EU fiscal rules prevent a reform of the German constitutional debt brake? In a new paper @nilsredeker.bsky.social and @lucasguttenberg.bsky.social show that EU rules should leave more fiscal space. I calculated how much more and find that the difference is substantial. Short thread 1/5

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Lennard Welslau @lennardwelslau.bsky.social · 10/02/2024

Consumption-based diff. btw inflation faced by low- and high-income HHs reduced over recent months due to disinflation in energy and food prices. I built a data app presenting joint work with Bruegel colleagues: inflation-inequality.onrender.com (feedback welcome, original article: t.co/mi5hbR8dqU)

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Lennard Welslau @lennardwelslau.bsky.social · 21/12/2023

Our assessment of yesterday's Council compromise on on the reform of the EU fiscal rules: A reasonable outcome overall, in some respects better, in others worse than the Commission’s April proposal:

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