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Michael A. Gayed, CFA

@leadlagreport.bsky.social
1.7K followers 3.5K following 3.3K posts

5x Dow & Founders Award Winner. Risk-On/Off $RORO ETF, Junk-On/Off $JOJO ETF, & $ATACX Mutual Fund Portfolio Manager. Publisher Of The Lead-Lag Report.

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Michael A. Gayed, CFA @leadlagreport.bsky.social · 21m
The federal 'Super Intelligence' order changes terminology, not today's statutory capability definition. A legislative proposal is due later. Policy signal, yes; proof of a model breakthrough, no. Source: White House Sep 29 order, sections 2-3. Definition and timing are on the visual.
Technical community legal-definition distinction, no market forecast.
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Michael A. Gayed, CFA @leadlagreport.bsky.social · 2h
Starts at 2 PM ET today: The Model Portfolio Strategy with Matthew Tuttle, Frances Newton, Stefan Whitwell and Michael A. Gayed. CFP CE eligible. Paid Tuttle Capital webinar promotion. Register: us06web.zoom.us/webinar/regi...
Paid Tuttle Capital webinar promotion. The Model Portfolio Strategy. Matthew Tuttle, Frances Newton, Stefan Whitwell CFA CIPM, hosted by Michael A. Gayed CFA. Today September 30, 2026, starts 2 PM Eastern. CFP CE credit eligible. Register using the post link.
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Michael A. Gayed, CFA @leadlagreport.bsky.social · 3h
America.gov's proposed front door does not take agencies' records or decision authority. That makes completed applications a better test than chatbot answers. Easier navigation could still help. Source: White House Sep 29 order, sections 2-4. Diagram distinguishes mandate from delivery.
Government-tech implementation distinction with self-contained source attribution.
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Michael A. Gayed, CFA @leadlagreport.bsky.social · 5h
CarMax Q2: used retail units rose about 14%; gross profit per car fell $111 to $2,105. Total retail gross profit still rose about 8%. Margin sacrifice can work if volume pays for it. That is not pricing power. Source: Sep 29 FY2027 Q2 call; investors.carmax.com.
Short evidence-first company observation; no unsolicited engagement prompt.
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Michael A. Gayed, CFA @leadlagreport.bsky.social · 7h
Today at 10 AM ET: Mag 7 Meets China with Jason Hsu and Michael A. Gayed. Investing in a G2 World. CFP CE approval pending. Paid Rayliant webinar promotion. Register: us06web.zoom.us/webinar/regi...
Paid Rayliant webinar promotion. Mag 7 Meets China: Investing in a G2 World. Jason Hsu, PhD, Founder and CIO of Rayliant, with Michael A. Gayed, CFA. Today, September 30, 2026, 10 AM Eastern. CFP CE approval pending. Register using the link in the post.
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Michael A. Gayed, CFA @leadlagreport.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Paychex Q1: Management Solutions +4%, PEO/insurance +12%. Client upgrades move revenue between buckets. Neither rate alone measures hiring. External customer growth is the countercase to dismissing it as reshuffling. Source: FY2027 Q1 call, Sep 23; investor.paychex.com.
Evidence-forward caveat for interpreting employment proxies.
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Michael A. Gayed, CFA @leadlagreport.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
NVIDIA's agent-safety design separates the worker from its controls: OpenShell policy plus optional Sentry enforcement outside the host. Useful principle; not measured proof of containment. Ask what stops a forbidden action. Source: NVIDIA Technical Blog, Sep 28. See original source on the visual.
Technical community bounded-authority argument; no new safety guarantee.
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Michael A. Gayed, CFA @leadlagreport.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Vail's pass units fell about 12%, dollars 6% through Sept 18. That is not a visitation forecast. Management expects later buyers and ticket migration. The risk: more demand must be won during the season. Sep 28 call: investors.vailresorts.com/node/23756/pdf
Compact source-led distinction between bookings and usage.
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Michael A. Gayed, CFA @leadlagreport.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Jason Hsu, PhD, joins Michael A. Gayed tomorrow for Mag 7 Meets China: Investing in a G2 World. Sept 30, 10 AM ET. CFP CE approval pending. Paid Rayliant webinar promotion. Register: us06web.zoom.us/webinar/regi...
Sponsored Rayliant webinar: Mag 7 Meets China, Investing in a G2 World. Jason Hsu, PhD, Founder and CIO of Rayliant, hosted by Michael A. Gayed, CFA. Tomorrow, September 30, 2026, 10 AM Eastern. CFP CE approval pending. Registration link in the post.
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Michael A. Gayed, CFA @leadlagreport.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Costco's fee income grew 6.8% excluding the fee hike and FX in Q4. Members and mix matter, not just price. Strong operating evidence; not proof of cheap valuation. Source: Sep 24 call. investor.costco.com/overview/def...
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Michael A. Gayed, CFA @leadlagreport.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
The FTC removed ethics-clearance paperwork, not statutory post-employment restrictions. Less friction can help hiring. It also leaves firms responsible for getting the conflict analysis right. www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/...
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Michael A. Gayed, CFA @leadlagreport.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Oracle's Q1 cash flow includes customer prepayments. Subtracting capex net of those prepayments counts the funding twice. Reported free cash flow: -$5B. Customer funding helps financing, not arithmetic. www.oracle.com/investor/
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Michael A. Gayed, CFA @leadlagreport.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Innovation beyond U.S. tech: Mag 7 Meets China with Jason Hsu and Michael A. Gayed. Sept 30, 10 AM ET. Paid Rayliant webinar promotion. CFP CE approval pending. Register: us06web.zoom.us/webinar/regi...
Sponsored Rayliant webinar: Mag 7 Meets China, Investing in a G2 World. Jason Hsu, PhD, Founder and CIO of Rayliant, hosted by Michael A. Gayed, CFA. Wednesday September 30, 2026 at 10 AM Eastern. CFP CE approval pending. Registration link in post. Paid webinar promotion.
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Michael A. Gayed, CFA @leadlagreport.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
The CFTC put tokenized collateral inside the rulebook. The footnotes are the rule. www.freemarketsreport.com/cftc-tokeniz...
CFTC FAQ recordkeeping gates chart: onchain records are permissive, not permissionless
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Michael A. Gayed, CFA @leadlagreport.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
NMZ's 8.5% tax-free monthly distribution comes with a structural trade-off: bonds around 76 cents on the dollar and 41% leverage. The yield is the headline. Leverage and mark risk are the test. www.leadlagreport.com/nmz-tax-free...
NMZ price and net asset value chart from the Lead-Lag Report analysis
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Michael A. Gayed, CFA @leadlagreport.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
The bank exam cycle doubled. The risk test did not. www.freemarketsreport.com/the-bank-exa...
Chart: agencies estimate 188 additional eligible institutions under the extended bank exam cycle
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Michael A. Gayed, CFA @leadlagreport.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
HYT: an 11.7% junk yield where a quarter of the check is your own money. www.leadlagreport.com/hyt-11-7-yie...
HYT share price chart from the High Yield Spotlight profile
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Michael A. Gayed, CFA @leadlagreport.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
OBDC: an 11% yielder at 78 cents on the dollar. The discount is a verdict on private credit marks, or a gift. www.leadlagreport.com/you-can-buy-...
OBDC share price versus NAV chart from the High Yield Spotlight profile
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Michael A. Gayed, CFA @leadlagreport.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
FSK: a 15.6% yielder at 62 cents on the dollar. The NAV has fallen 25% in ten quarters. The dollar keeps shrinking. www.leadlagreport.com/fsk-kkr-62-c...
FSK share price versus NAV chart from the High Yield Spotlight profile
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Michael A. Gayed, CFA @leadlagreport.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
The Fed's first hike in three years. Copper went right back to its record. The supply shock is winning the argument. www.leadlagreport.com/the-feds-fir...
US indices chart from Global View, September 22, 2026
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Michael A. Gayed, CFA @leadlagreport.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
The CFTC wants to revive Rule 4.13(a)(4), the pool exemption it killed in 2012, and double the small-pool cap to $800,000. The catch: Form PF stays. www.freemarketsreport.com/the-cftc-wan...
Free Markets Report analysis of the CFTC Rule 4.13(a)(4) proposal
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Michael A. Gayed, CFA @leadlagreport.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
FINRA zeroed its Q4 Trading Activity Fee. $160M waived. The bigger move: fee increases delayed two years, $718M in savings. www.freemarketsreport.com/finra-just-m...
Timeline of the FINRA fee filings: filed September 15, SEC notice September 18, TAF holiday October 1 through December 31, fee resumes January 1
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Michael A. Gayed, CFA @leadlagreport.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
New from The Free Markets Report: the CFTC just handed its crypto rules to the White House. A 90-day OMB review clock, and no public text yet. www.freemarketsreport.com/the-cftc-jus...
Card: The CFTC Just Handed Its Crypto Rules to the White House, Free Markets Report
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Michael A. Gayed, CFA @leadlagreport.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
Volatility cannot price this risk. Every gauge a portfolio owns reads calm. The exposure that already did the damage is not one of the things they measure. www.leadlagreport.com/volatility-c...
Quote card: Volatility Cannot Price This Risk
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Michael A. Gayed, CFA @leadlagreport.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
The long end is setting policy. The 30-year Treasury is at 5.23%. Effective federal funds are at 3.63%. That 160 basis point gap is not a forecast. It is an instruction. www.leadlagreport.com/the-long-end...
Bar chart: 30-year Treasury yield 5.23% versus effective federal funds 3.63%, 160 basis point gap
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Michael A. Gayed, CFA @leadlagreport.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
Moved to today, 12:00 PM ET. 1 CFP CE credit. The Venezuela Thesis with Herve van Caloen of Mercator. Register: us06web.zoom.us/webinar/regi...
Webinar card: The Venezuela Thesis with Mercator, moved to today Thursday Sep 3 12:00 PM ET, 1 CFP CE credit
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Michael A. Gayed, CFA @leadlagreport.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
Which signal leads next: breadth, duration, credit, or volatility? One word, then defend it.
Lead-Lag Report verified Sep. 1 data chart for bs3
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Michael A. Gayed, CFA @leadlagreport.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
Contrarian read: the index move was not isolated. QQQ -1.27%, IWM -1.14%, TLT -0.79%, HYG -0.89%, and GLD -2.86%; VIX +9.52%. One session, broad pressure.
Lead-Lag Report verified Sep. 1 data chart for bs2
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Michael A. Gayed, CFA @leadlagreport.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
The most rate-sensitive corner of the real economy is in a relative bear market while the S&P prints records. www.leadlagreport.com/lumber-is-di...
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Michael A. Gayed, CFA @leadlagreport.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
1 CFP CE credit. Live today, 12:00 PM ET. The Venezuela Thesis with Herve Van Caloen of Mercator. Register: us06web.zoom.us/webinar/regi...
Webinar card: The Venezuela Thesis with Mercator, today 12:00 PM ET, 1 CFP CE credit
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Michael A. Gayed, CFA @leadlagreport.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
Hervé Van Caloen of Mercator Investment Management on the post-Maduro window, the Chevron licensing precedent, and the Argentina comparison. Live at noon, CE credit approved. www.leadlagreport.com/today-at-12-...
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Michael A. Gayed, CFA @leadlagreport.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
Sep. 1 shock data: SPY -0.69%, QQQ -1.27%, IWM -1.14%, TLT -0.79%, GLD -2.86%; VIX +9.52%. Risk did not leave through one door.
Lead-Lag Report verified Sep. 1 data chart for bs1
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Michael A. Gayed, CFA @leadlagreport.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
NHTSA says it never had authority to regulate truck engines directly, only vehicles. Cummins' 10-K flags $127M in compliance credits at risk if this and an EPA rule both finalize. www.freemarketsreport.com/nhtsa-just-t...
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Michael A. Gayed, CFA @leadlagreport.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
The Evoke Advisors risk parity primer moved to today at 3:00 PM ET. Registration is open and existing links still work. www.leadlagreport.com/today-at-3-0...
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Michael A. Gayed, CFA @leadlagreport.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
The Hidden Timeline for Schwab Fund Approval From today's Lead-Lag Asset Gathering Brief: leadlagmedia.com/issuer-brief...
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Michael A. Gayed, CFA @leadlagreport.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
EU designated ChatGPT a VLOSE and Reddit + Roblox VLOPs under the DSA. Four months to comply. RDDT and RBLX are the named public tickers, ChatGPT stays private. www.freemarketsreport.com/eu-names-cha...
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Michael A. Gayed, CFA @leadlagreport.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
RIA Aggregators Are Your Fastest Distribution Shortcut From today's Lead-Lag Asset Gathering Brief: leadlagmedia.com/issuer-brief...
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Michael A. Gayed, CFA @leadlagreport.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
The last time the U.S. declared emergency authority over foreign bulk-power equipment, it was suspended within 90 days. EO 14420 tries again, broader this time. Full story: www.freemarketsreport.com/the-u-s-trie...
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Michael A. Gayed, CFA @leadlagreport.bsky.social · 30/08/2026
Which signal leads your read now: breadth, the dollar, metals, or volatility? Pick one and defend it with the next confirmation you would watch.
Lead-Lag Report verified Aug. 28, 2026 data chart for bs3
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Michael A. Gayed, CFA @leadlagreport.bsky.social · 30/08/2026
Contrarian chart: SPY fell 0.23% and VIX eased to 14.43 on Aug. 28, but GLD fell 3.24% and SLV 4.38%. Quiet volatility does not equal quiet positioning.
Lead-Lag Report verified Aug. 28, 2026 data chart for bs2
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Michael A. Gayed, CFA @leadlagreport.bsky.social · 30/08/2026
The shock was not a VIX spike. On Aug. 28, GLD fell 3.24% and SLV 4.38% while VIX eased to 14.43. Volatility looked calm; the hedge complex did not.
Lead-Lag Report verified Aug. 28, 2026 data chart for bs1
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Michael A. Gayed, CFA @leadlagreport.bsky.social · 30/08/2026
The SEC just proposed something it hasn't done in 22 years: designate a supranational borrower, not a country, under Rule 3a12-8. Portugal set the precedent in 1999. The EU is the first category-level entrant. Full story: www.freemarketsreport.com/the-secs-eu-...
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Michael A. Gayed, CFA @leadlagreport.bsky.social · 29/08/2026
Fund distribution research should start with evidence, not a list. Atlas brings SEC adviser records, Form ADV context, and 13F holdings signals into a reviewable brief. The judgment and relationship stay human. leadlagmedia.com/atlas-sec-ad...
Atlas SEC adviser lookup and 13F intelligence article header image
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Michael A. Gayed, CFA @leadlagreport.bsky.social · 29/08/2026
Mechanical inflows made the largest weights the market. The same mechanics run in reverse, and no one is standing on the other side. www.leadlagreport.com/the-passive-...
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Michael A. Gayed, CFA @leadlagreport.bsky.social · 29/08/2026
The infrastructure is real. The return evidence is arriving later than the spending. www.leadlagreport.com/the-ai-payba...
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Michael A. Gayed, CFA @leadlagreport.bsky.social · 29/08/2026
Capex Cycles Die From the Top of the Capital Stack. Everyone Is Watching the Wrong Number. www.leadlagreport.com/the-ai-capex...
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Michael A. Gayed, CFA @leadlagreport.bsky.social · 29/08/2026
HM Treasury wants the Bank of England to get a payments-innovation objective, same template used for CCPs/CSDs since 2023. Same week, the Bank delayed its own RTGS release. Full story: www.freemarketsreport.com/the-uks-paym...
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Michael A. Gayed, CFA @leadlagreport.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
Reply bait: which signal matters more now — growth leadership, falling duration, or weaker breadth? One word, then defend it.
Lead-Lag Report verified Aug. 26, 2026 data chart for bs3
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Michael A. Gayed, CFA @leadlagreport.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
PFLT yields 13% and trades at a 28% NAV discount -- the deepest of our BDC trilogy. The distribution was cut from $0.1025 to $0.08/mo, but NII now covers it at 104%. www.leadlagreport.com/the-13-yield...
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Michael A. Gayed, CFA @leadlagreport.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
Contrarian: QQQ rose +0.09% while IWM fell -0.10% and TLT fell -0.20%. Growth beta is not the same as broad risk appetite.
Lead-Lag Report verified Aug. 26, 2026 data chart for bs2
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