Michael A. Gayed, CFA @leadlagreport.bsky.social · 21mThe federal 'Super Intelligence' order changes terminology, not today's statutory capability definition. A legislative proposal is due later. Policy signal, yes; proof of a model breakthrough, no. Source: White House Sep 29 order, sections 2-3. Definition and timing are on the visual. 000
Michael A. Gayed, CFA @leadlagreport.bsky.social · 2hStarts at 2 PM ET today: The Model Portfolio Strategy with Matthew Tuttle, Frances Newton, Stefan Whitwell and Michael A. Gayed. CFP CE eligible. Paid Tuttle Capital webinar promotion. Register: us06web.zoom.us/webinar/regi... 000
Michael A. Gayed, CFA @leadlagreport.bsky.social · 3hAmerica.gov's proposed front door does not take agencies' records or decision authority. That makes completed applications a better test than chatbot answers. Easier navigation could still help. Source: White House Sep 29 order, sections 2-4. Diagram distinguishes mandate from delivery. 000
Michael A. Gayed, CFA @leadlagreport.bsky.social · 5hCarMax Q2: used retail units rose about 14%; gross profit per car fell $111 to $2,105. Total retail gross profit still rose about 8%. Margin sacrifice can work if volume pays for it. That is not pricing power. Source: Sep 29 FY2027 Q2 call; investors.carmax.com. 000
Michael A. Gayed, CFA @leadlagreport.bsky.social · 7hToday at 10 AM ET: Mag 7 Meets China with Jason Hsu and Michael A. Gayed. Investing in a G2 World. CFP CE approval pending. Paid Rayliant webinar promotion. Register: us06web.zoom.us/webinar/regi... 011
Michael A. Gayed, CFA @leadlagreport.bsky.social · 29/09/2026Paychex Q1: Management Solutions +4%, PEO/insurance +12%. Client upgrades move revenue between buckets. Neither rate alone measures hiring. External customer growth is the countercase to dismissing it as reshuffling. Source: FY2027 Q1 call, Sep 23; investor.paychex.com. 000
Michael A. Gayed, CFA @leadlagreport.bsky.social · 29/09/2026NVIDIA's agent-safety design separates the worker from its controls: OpenShell policy plus optional Sentry enforcement outside the host. Useful principle; not measured proof of containment. Ask what stops a forbidden action. Source: NVIDIA Technical Blog, Sep 28. See original source on the visual. 000
Michael A. Gayed, CFA @leadlagreport.bsky.social · 29/09/2026Vail's pass units fell about 12%, dollars 6% through Sept 18. That is not a visitation forecast. Management expects later buyers and ticket migration. The risk: more demand must be won during the season. Sep 28 call: investors.vailresorts.com/node/23756/pdf 000
Michael A. Gayed, CFA @leadlagreport.bsky.social · 29/09/2026Jason Hsu, PhD, joins Michael A. Gayed tomorrow for Mag 7 Meets China: Investing in a G2 World. Sept 30, 10 AM ET. CFP CE approval pending. Paid Rayliant webinar promotion. Register: us06web.zoom.us/webinar/regi... 000
Michael A. Gayed, CFA @leadlagreport.bsky.social · 28/09/2026Costco's fee income grew 6.8% excluding the fee hike and FX in Q4. Members and mix matter, not just price. Strong operating evidence; not proof of cheap valuation. Source: Sep 24 call. investor.costco.com/overview/def... 000
Michael A. Gayed, CFA @leadlagreport.bsky.social · 28/09/2026The FTC removed ethics-clearance paperwork, not statutory post-employment restrictions. Less friction can help hiring. It also leaves firms responsible for getting the conflict analysis right. www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/... 010
Michael A. Gayed, CFA @leadlagreport.bsky.social · 28/09/2026Oracle's Q1 cash flow includes customer prepayments. Subtracting capex net of those prepayments counts the funding twice. Reported free cash flow: -$5B. Customer funding helps financing, not arithmetic. www.oracle.com/investor/ 000
Michael A. Gayed, CFA @leadlagreport.bsky.social · 28/09/2026Innovation beyond U.S. tech: Mag 7 Meets China with Jason Hsu and Michael A. Gayed. Sept 30, 10 AM ET. Paid Rayliant webinar promotion. CFP CE approval pending. Register: us06web.zoom.us/webinar/regi... 000
Michael A. Gayed, CFA @leadlagreport.bsky.social · 25/09/2026The CFTC put tokenized collateral inside the rulebook. The footnotes are the rule. www.freemarketsreport.com/cftc-tokeniz... 010
Michael A. Gayed, CFA @leadlagreport.bsky.social · 23/09/2026NMZ's 8.5% tax-free monthly distribution comes with a structural trade-off: bonds around 76 cents on the dollar and 41% leverage. The yield is the headline. Leverage and mark risk are the test. www.leadlagreport.com/nmz-tax-free... 000
Michael A. Gayed, CFA @leadlagreport.bsky.social · 23/09/2026The bank exam cycle doubled. The risk test did not. www.freemarketsreport.com/the-bank-exa... 000
Michael A. Gayed, CFA @leadlagreport.bsky.social · 23/09/2026HYT: an 11.7% junk yield where a quarter of the check is your own money. www.leadlagreport.com/hyt-11-7-yie... 000
Michael A. Gayed, CFA @leadlagreport.bsky.social · 23/09/2026OBDC: an 11% yielder at 78 cents on the dollar. The discount is a verdict on private credit marks, or a gift. www.leadlagreport.com/you-can-buy-... 000
Michael A. Gayed, CFA @leadlagreport.bsky.social · 23/09/2026FSK: a 15.6% yielder at 62 cents on the dollar. The NAV has fallen 25% in ten quarters. The dollar keeps shrinking. www.leadlagreport.com/fsk-kkr-62-c... 000
Michael A. Gayed, CFA @leadlagreport.bsky.social · 22/09/2026The Fed's first hike in three years. Copper went right back to its record. The supply shock is winning the argument. www.leadlagreport.com/the-feds-fir... 020
Michael A. Gayed, CFA @leadlagreport.bsky.social · 22/09/2026The CFTC wants to revive Rule 4.13(a)(4), the pool exemption it killed in 2012, and double the small-pool cap to $800,000. The catch: Form PF stays. www.freemarketsreport.com/the-cftc-wan... 000
Michael A. Gayed, CFA @leadlagreport.bsky.social · 21/09/2026FINRA zeroed its Q4 Trading Activity Fee. $160M waived. The bigger move: fee increases delayed two years, $718M in savings. www.freemarketsreport.com/finra-just-m... 000
Michael A. Gayed, CFA @leadlagreport.bsky.social · 18/09/2026New from The Free Markets Report: the CFTC just handed its crypto rules to the White House. A 90-day OMB review clock, and no public text yet. www.freemarketsreport.com/the-cftc-jus... 000
Michael A. Gayed, CFA @leadlagreport.bsky.social · 04/09/2026Volatility cannot price this risk. Every gauge a portfolio owns reads calm. The exposure that already did the damage is not one of the things they measure. www.leadlagreport.com/volatility-c... 000
Michael A. Gayed, CFA @leadlagreport.bsky.social · 03/09/2026The long end is setting policy. The 30-year Treasury is at 5.23%. Effective federal funds are at 3.63%. That 160 basis point gap is not a forecast. It is an instruction. www.leadlagreport.com/the-long-end... 000
Michael A. Gayed, CFA @leadlagreport.bsky.social · 03/09/2026Moved to today, 12:00 PM ET. 1 CFP CE credit. The Venezuela Thesis with Herve van Caloen of Mercator. Register: us06web.zoom.us/webinar/regi... 010
Michael A. Gayed, CFA @leadlagreport.bsky.social · 02/09/2026Which signal leads next: breadth, duration, credit, or volatility? One word, then defend it. 000
Michael A. Gayed, CFA @leadlagreport.bsky.social · 02/09/2026Contrarian read: the index move was not isolated. QQQ -1.27%, IWM -1.14%, TLT -0.79%, HYG -0.89%, and GLD -2.86%; VIX +9.52%. One session, broad pressure. 000
Michael A. Gayed, CFA @leadlagreport.bsky.social · 02/09/2026The most rate-sensitive corner of the real economy is in a relative bear market while the S&P prints records. www.leadlagreport.com/lumber-is-di... 010
Michael A. Gayed, CFA @leadlagreport.bsky.social · 02/09/20261 CFP CE credit. Live today, 12:00 PM ET. The Venezuela Thesis with Herve Van Caloen of Mercator. Register: us06web.zoom.us/webinar/regi... 000
Michael A. Gayed, CFA @leadlagreport.bsky.social · 02/09/2026Hervé Van Caloen of Mercator Investment Management on the post-Maduro window, the Chevron licensing precedent, and the Argentina comparison. Live at noon, CE credit approved. www.leadlagreport.com/today-at-12-... 000
Michael A. Gayed, CFA @leadlagreport.bsky.social · 02/09/2026Sep. 1 shock data: SPY -0.69%, QQQ -1.27%, IWM -1.14%, TLT -0.79%, GLD -2.86%; VIX +9.52%. Risk did not leave through one door. 000
Michael A. Gayed, CFA @leadlagreport.bsky.social · 02/09/2026NHTSA says it never had authority to regulate truck engines directly, only vehicles. Cummins' 10-K flags $127M in compliance credits at risk if this and an EPA rule both finalize. www.freemarketsreport.com/nhtsa-just-t... 010
Michael A. Gayed, CFA @leadlagreport.bsky.social · 01/09/2026The Evoke Advisors risk parity primer moved to today at 3:00 PM ET. Registration is open and existing links still work. www.leadlagreport.com/today-at-3-0... 000
Michael A. Gayed, CFA @leadlagreport.bsky.social · 01/09/2026The Hidden Timeline for Schwab Fund Approval From today's Lead-Lag Asset Gathering Brief: leadlagmedia.com/issuer-brief... 010
Michael A. Gayed, CFA @leadlagreport.bsky.social · 01/09/2026EU designated ChatGPT a VLOSE and Reddit + Roblox VLOPs under the DSA. Four months to comply. RDDT and RBLX are the named public tickers, ChatGPT stays private. www.freemarketsreport.com/eu-names-cha... 000
Michael A. Gayed, CFA @leadlagreport.bsky.social · 31/08/2026RIA Aggregators Are Your Fastest Distribution Shortcut From today's Lead-Lag Asset Gathering Brief: leadlagmedia.com/issuer-brief... 000
Michael A. Gayed, CFA @leadlagreport.bsky.social · 31/08/2026The last time the U.S. declared emergency authority over foreign bulk-power equipment, it was suspended within 90 days. EO 14420 tries again, broader this time. Full story: www.freemarketsreport.com/the-u-s-trie... 000
Michael A. Gayed, CFA @leadlagreport.bsky.social · 30/08/2026Which signal leads your read now: breadth, the dollar, metals, or volatility? Pick one and defend it with the next confirmation you would watch. 000
Michael A. Gayed, CFA @leadlagreport.bsky.social · 30/08/2026Contrarian chart: SPY fell 0.23% and VIX eased to 14.43 on Aug. 28, but GLD fell 3.24% and SLV 4.38%. Quiet volatility does not equal quiet positioning. 000
Michael A. Gayed, CFA @leadlagreport.bsky.social · 30/08/2026The shock was not a VIX spike. On Aug. 28, GLD fell 3.24% and SLV 4.38% while VIX eased to 14.43. Volatility looked calm; the hedge complex did not. 000
Michael A. Gayed, CFA @leadlagreport.bsky.social · 30/08/2026The SEC just proposed something it hasn't done in 22 years: designate a supranational borrower, not a country, under Rule 3a12-8. Portugal set the precedent in 1999. The EU is the first category-level entrant. Full story: www.freemarketsreport.com/the-secs-eu-... 010
Michael A. Gayed, CFA @leadlagreport.bsky.social · 29/08/2026Fund distribution research should start with evidence, not a list. Atlas brings SEC adviser records, Form ADV context, and 13F holdings signals into a reviewable brief. The judgment and relationship stay human. leadlagmedia.com/atlas-sec-ad... 000
Michael A. Gayed, CFA @leadlagreport.bsky.social · 29/08/2026Mechanical inflows made the largest weights the market. The same mechanics run in reverse, and no one is standing on the other side. www.leadlagreport.com/the-passive-... 000
Michael A. Gayed, CFA @leadlagreport.bsky.social · 29/08/2026The infrastructure is real. The return evidence is arriving later than the spending. www.leadlagreport.com/the-ai-payba... 000
Michael A. Gayed, CFA @leadlagreport.bsky.social · 29/08/2026Capex Cycles Die From the Top of the Capital Stack. Everyone Is Watching the Wrong Number. www.leadlagreport.com/the-ai-capex... 000
Michael A. Gayed, CFA @leadlagreport.bsky.social · 29/08/2026HM Treasury wants the Bank of England to get a payments-innovation objective, same template used for CCPs/CSDs since 2023. Same week, the Bank delayed its own RTGS release. Full story: www.freemarketsreport.com/the-uks-paym... 000
Michael A. Gayed, CFA @leadlagreport.bsky.social · 28/08/2026Reply bait: which signal matters more now — growth leadership, falling duration, or weaker breadth? One word, then defend it. 000
Michael A. Gayed, CFA @leadlagreport.bsky.social · 28/08/2026PFLT yields 13% and trades at a 28% NAV discount -- the deepest of our BDC trilogy. The distribution was cut from $0.1025 to $0.08/mo, but NII now covers it at 104%. www.leadlagreport.com/the-13-yield... 000
Michael A. Gayed, CFA @leadlagreport.bsky.social · 28/08/2026Contrarian: QQQ rose +0.09% while IWM fell -0.10% and TLT fell -0.20%. Growth beta is not the same as broad risk appetite. 010