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Lucas de Abreu Maia @ldam.bsky.social · 22/06/2026

Those are things we know how to do, and we know they work, but they would also require a more activist government than Britain has had in almost half a century.

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Lucas de Abreu Maia @ldam.bsky.social · 22/06/2026

…and that probably does mean doing things the FT and the Economist don't like very much: redistributing income and wealth, providing greater security, strengthening infrastructure.

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Lucas de Abreu Maia @ldam.bsky.social · 22/06/2026

Maybe these clichés aren't so innocent after all. Insisting that there is some magical solution out there distracts from the fact that not really knowing how to grow the economy is an argument for just building the society we want…

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Lucas de Abreu Maia @ldam.bsky.social · 22/06/2026

They lead to magical thinking: that there is a politician out there with extraordinary talent, who will propose a growth plan that works and tell the public the "hard truths" it doesn't want to hear, overcoming social media algorithms and the spread of misinformation.

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Lucas de Abreu Maia @ldam.bsky.social · 22/06/2026

First because the punditry always reach for the same clichés anyway (lack of talent, lack of vision, lack of honesty). If one is going to repeat oneself, one might at least do so while telling the truth. But these clichés also do real damage.

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Lucas de Abreu Maia @ldam.bsky.social · 22/06/2026

Repeatedly writing that no politician can be talented with zero economic growth – that nobody really knows how to create growth, and that Britain is subject to global forces beyond its control – can only fill so many columns (and makes for bleak reading). But my sympathy has limits.

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Lucas de Abreu Maia @ldam.bsky.social · 22/06/2026

These clichés allow political analysts to sound serious and hard-nosed, while doing no hard thinking themselves. In one respect, I am sympathetic. One must keep the papers and newsletters fed.

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Lucas de Abreu Maia @ldam.bsky.social · 22/06/2026

Rather than admit these hard truths, to use a cliché the press likes so much, the commentariat just writes that British politicians aren't serious. They lack talent or they have no theory of economic growth – usually both. Meanwhile, voters are said not to want to hear the truth.

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Lucas de Abreu Maia @ldam.bsky.social · 22/06/2026

Growth is only one of these forces too, most of them global: a fragmenting information environment, a revanchist Russia, an erratic United States, an economically dominant China. No politician can wish them away.

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Lucas de Abreu Maia @ldam.bsky.social · 22/06/2026

Because no political talent survives contact with two decades of zero real income growth. And why does this government have no growth strategy? Because no one knows, really, how to generate economic growth. We have many theories, no final answers.

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Lucas de Abreu Maia @ldam.bsky.social · 22/06/2026

The circumstantial cause is more interesting. British punditry avoids deep thinking because the forces that shape Britain's fortunes are largely beyond anyone's control. Why has Britain lacked political talent?

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Lucas de Abreu Maia @ldam.bsky.social · 22/06/2026

The structural one has deep roots in the British educational system. Students are taught to argue, not to think. The Economist is an expert in beautiful argumentation without much thinking at all. I'm hardly the first to notice this, so I need not labour the point.

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Lucas de Abreu Maia @ldam.bsky.social · 22/06/2026

What these writers usually mean is that Labour has not made a centre-right offer they like. But grant the premise — say there is no vision. No one asks why. As I see it, there are two causes for this lack of curiosity, one structural and one circumstantial.

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Lucas de Abreu Maia @ldam.bsky.social · 22/06/2026

Stephen Bush writes some version of this several times a week, every week, in his Inside Politics newsletter for the FT. The Economist will have at least one cover making roughly the same argument once a month.

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Lucas de Abreu Maia @ldam.bsky.social · 22/06/2026

This was more or less the point of Tony Blair's essay a few weeks ago (or at least the point worth taking). This was what Wes Streeting meant when he told Peter Mandelson that this government had "no growth strategy at all".

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Lucas de Abreu Maia @ldam.bsky.social · 22/06/2026

It has become conventional wisdom that Starmer/Labour (replace according to your preference or the point you're trying to make) have no intellectual appetite, no political vision, no ideology (though no one dares use the word).

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Lucas de Abreu Maia @ldam.bsky.social · 22/06/2026

None of what he writes is wrong, but he does not consider causes. The absence of good politicians seems exogenous, bad luck, god-given. He does not answer – he doesn't ask! – why Britain has lacked serious politicians for more than a decade.

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Lucas de Abreu Maia @ldam.bsky.social · 22/06/2026

I agree with Leslie's conclusion. Andy Burnham is likely to be yet another terrible prime minister. The problem is not the conclusion but the analysis. Leslie goes through the recent list of prime ministers, pointing out what each of them lacks.

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Lucas de Abreu Maia @ldam.bsky.social · 22/06/2026

At the risk of unfairly picking on an individual for what is a systemic problem, here's an example of the former: www.ian-leslie.com/p/andy-burnh...

ian-leslie.com

Andy Burnham Is Going To Be Yet Another Terrible Prime Minister

And Nobody Wants To Admit It

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Lucas de Abreu Maia @ldam.bsky.social · 22/06/2026

Expect a lot of hand-wringing about one of two things in response to Keir Starmer's resignation: (1) the lack of political talent or (2) Britain being ungovernable.

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Lucas de Abreu Maia @ldam.bsky.social · 22/06/2026

The lack of evidence-based, intellectually open systemic thinking in British public debate is, I suspect, an important factor in the country's malaise. There is no Ezra Klein or Paul Krugman in Britain. Why?

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Lucas de Abreu Maia @ldam.bsky.social · 20/09/2025

I'm not saying that all policy specialist should also be political strategists. But complaining of a well-known problem, offering a well-known policy solution, without a plan to make it politically viable is actively unhelpful. At a bare minimum, it feeds disillusionment in democracy.

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Lucas de Abreu Maia @ldam.bsky.social · 20/09/2025

They always manage to make politicians sound stupid. But the majority of politicians (at least those in high positions) are not stupid. Most of them care a lot about succeeding in office. They often have a very good reason not to implement a particular solution, especially if it's an obvious one.

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Lucas de Abreu Maia @ldam.bsky.social · 20/09/2025

Case in point: UK tax reform. Every week one reads/hears/watches at least three (often more like 13) articles/interviews in the press about how UK tax/economic/fiscal policy is all wrong/dysfunctional/short-termist. They never bother to explain why their preferred policy hasn't been implemented.

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Lucas de Abreu Maia @ldam.bsky.social · 20/09/2025

Intellectual honesty should require that everybody moaning in public about how dysfunctional public policy is in a democracy should offer a *politically viable* solution. Few things are as annoying as experts going public complaining about the political mess without offering a credible alternative.

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Lucas de Abreu Maia @ldam.bsky.social · 15/05/2025

It’s driving me up the fucking wall. I’m sure people in Whitehall (including Morgan McSweeney) are smart. People don’t get to those positions if they’re not smart. They must understand you don’t make an issue voters don’t trust you on more politically salient! I’m very curious as to their logic.

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Lucas de Abreu Maia @ldam.bsky.social · 18/09/2024

Quase ninguém na imprensa, na academia ou mesmo no governo (que tanto reclamou quando não devia) reclama agora. Incompreensível. Agradeço a quem conseguir me explicar esse mistério. (4/4)

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Lucas de Abreu Maia @ldam.bsky.social · 18/09/2024

Um bando de modelista de banco. Certamente parte desinteressadíssima. E, mesmo se os modelistas forem inocentes, qualquer modelo pode estar errado. Se não há evidência de inflação, então não há evidência de que o Brasil esteja crescendo num ritmo insustentável. É uma vergonha. (3/4)

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Lucas de Abreu Maia @ldam.bsky.social · 18/09/2024

“Ah, mas o Brasil precisa atrair Dólar.” Camarada, se o Brasil não tá atraindo Dólar com juros básicos de 10,5%, tu acha que 0,25 ponto percentual de aumento que fará a diferença? “Ah, mas o Brasil tá crescendo num ritmo insustentável.” De acordo com quem? (2/4)

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Lucas de Abreu Maia @ldam.bsky.social · 18/09/2024

O debate econômico no Brasil me é incompreensível. Praticamente todo mundo vem tratando a quase certa alta de juros hoje como a ordem natural das coisas, sendo que a gente vem de dois meses seguidos de deflação. Contradiz toda a teoria macroeconômica básica. (1/4)

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Lucas de Abreu Maia @ldam.bsky.social · 15/09/2024

O @npto.bsky.social é sempre incrível. Mas, às vezes, é gênio, mesmo. Esse texto vai no cerne e é, simultaneamente, hilário. Só gênio: www1.folha.uol.com.br/colunas/cels...

archive.ph

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Lucas de Abreu Maia @ldam.bsky.social · 01/09/2024

Como que cês não me avisaram que o Imaculada, da divina Alice Caymmi, é maravilhoso? Só fui ouvir hoje e achei, assim, nível Rainha dos Raios.

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