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Lucian Cernat

@lcernat.bsky.social
962 followers 348 following 114 posts

Head of Unit for Trade in Goods, Tariff Negotiations, #TBTs, Customs, #RoOs. Maker of #tradeXpresso. #Mode5. #GVCs4LDCs. Ex DG TRADE ChiefTradeEconomist. Opinions personal.

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Lucian Cernat @lcernat.bsky.social · 23/07/2026
#tradeXpresso: After nearly two decades helping shape EU trade policy from Brussels, it is time for a new chapter. As of 1 September, I will start as Minister Counsellor at the European Union Delegation in Japan 🇯🇵. An exciting new beginning in Tokyo! www.linkedin.com/posts/lucian...
linkedin.com
#tradexpresso #mode5services #tradexpresso | Lucian CERNAT チェルナト・ルチアン | 60 comments
#tradeXpresso: After nearly two decades helping shape EU trade policy from Brussels, it is time for a new chapter. I am honoured to share that, as of 1 September, I have been appointed Minister Couns...
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Lucian Cernat @lcernat.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
#WorldCupXpresso: me trying to explain services trade in footballese! #fifaworldcup2026 #tradeXpresso
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Lucian Cernat @lcernat.bsky.social · 15/07/2026
Welcome to #WorldCupXpresso - a series of short posts about football⚽ and trade! Football requires lots of trade in services! Countries “export” referees, making the World Cup another showcase for global trade in professional #Mode4services. Who’s the top exporter of referees at the World Cup? 👀
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Lucian Cernat @lcernat.bsky.social · 08/07/2026
#tradeXpresso: Imagine buying a phone in Kenya. The phone is made in China. The chips come from Taiwan. The operating system comes from the US. Yet many of the standards behind that device originate elsewhere. Are these standards European, Chinese, American? www.researchgate.net/publication/...
researchgate.net
(PDF) Soft Power, Hard Standards: How strong is the 'Brussels Effect' in international standards? [forthcoming in Journal of World Trade]
PDF | Technical standards have become a key terrain of geopolitical competition. For decades, the European Union exercized strong influence in this... | Find, read and cite all the research you need o...
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Lucian Cernat @lcernat.bsky.social · 23/03/2026
#tradeXpresso: with the WTO #MC14 around the corner, let’s have a poll about the future of multilateralism in Tomorrowland. What do you see as the most likely scenario for #TradePolicy3.0? a. Immunity b. Sclerosis c. Contagion Not really sure what I mean? Click here: ecipe.org/wp-content/u...
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Lucian Cernat @lcernat.bsky.social · 12/03/2026
#tradeXpresso: I never anticipated that this paper about Trade Policy 2.0 algorithms for rules of origin and public procurement might become relevant one day to « easify » the complexities involved in the #IAA implementation! New title: “AI meets IAA” cirano.qc.ca/files/public...
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Lucian Cernat @lcernat.bsky.social · 11/12/2025
So, what #TradePolicy3.0 scenario would you say it’s more likely, Simon? A. Immunity B. Sclerosis C. Contagion ecipe.org/publications...
ecipe.org
Trade Policy 3.0: Three Scenarios for Tomorrowland
Global trade policy is at a crossroads. For decades, trade liberalisation was guided first by macroeconomic principles – Trade Policy 1.0 – and later by firm-level insights and global value chain
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Lucian Cernat @lcernat.bsky.social · 10/12/2025
#tradeXpresso: for people interested in an optimistic scenario for Trade Policy 3.0, here’s an idea for your next custom t-shirt 👕: “Do yourself a service: make #Mode5services duty free”. ecipe.org/publications...
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Lucian Cernat @lcernat.bsky.social · 29/11/2025
#tradeXpresso: Trade Policy 3.0 - three scenarios for Tomorrowland ecipe.org/publications...
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Lucian Cernat @lcernat.bsky.social · 26/11/2025
#tradeXpresso:  in Trade Policy 2.0 tariffs were a dull topic. Now, in Trade Policy 3.0, when it comes to tariffs, there's never a dull moment. Listen to my podcast with @osguinea about #TradePolicy3.0. From baby boomers to Gen Z, we got you covered! ecipe.org/podcast/epis...
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Lucian Cernat @lcernat.bsky.social · 26/11/2025
#tradeXpresso: after reading Martin Wolf’s latest FT article (www.ft.com/content/b515...) I am now intellectually reassured that #TradePolicy3.0 is actually a thing. ecipe.org/publications... Interested in your views!
ecipe.org
Trade Policy 3.0: Three Scenarios for Tomorrowland
Global trade policy is at a crossroads. For decades, trade liberalisation was guided first by macroeconomic principles – Trade Policy 1.0 – and later by firm-level insights and global value chain
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Lucian Cernat @lcernat.bsky.social · 22/11/2025
Tulip 🌷 bubble: the 17th century Dutch bitcoin. One bulb was worth a house in 1636.
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Lucian Cernat @lcernat.bsky.social · 21/11/2025
#tradeXpresso: chart of the week- the importance of services trade in the spotlight today in Brussels, thanks to the EU Services Forum! A tale of five countries and five modes of supply: ecipe.org/blog/the-big... Key takeaway: the EU has the highest share of #Mode5services!
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Lucian Cernat @lcernat.bsky.social · 06/11/2025
#tradeXpresso: Global trade policy is at a crossroads. A new paradigm –Trade Policy 3.0– is emerging, based on resilience, economic security, geopolitical rivalries and weaponised dependencies. New ECIPE brief🧾: How will trade policy evolve in Tomorrowland? ecipe.org/publications...
ecipe.org
Trade Policy 3.0: Three Scenarios for Tomorrowland
Global trade policy is at a crossroads. For decades, trade liberalisation was guided first by macroeconomic principles – Trade Policy 1.0 – and later by firm-level insights and global value chain
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Lucian Cernat @lcernat.bsky.social · 29/10/2025
#tradeXpresso: in Seoul these days trying to capture the complexity of global regulatory issues affecting world trade. In one chart. Great engagement from Korean counterparts for stronger cooperation and trade facilitation initiatives, including new trade “mini-deals”! ecipe.org/publications...
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Lucian Cernat @lcernat.bsky.social · 29/10/2025
#tradeXpresso: in Seoul these days trying to capture the complexity of global regulatory issues affecting world trade. In one chart. Great engagement from Korean counterparts for stronger cooperation and trade facilitation initiatives, including new trade “mini-deals”! ecipe.org/publications...
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Lucian Cernat @lcernat.bsky.social · 28/09/2025
Chart of the week: the pin art 🖼️ of the trade deal revealed! ecipe.org/publications... I may need to redo this with taller 📌 for some pharma products!
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Lucian Cernat @lcernat.bsky.social · 18/09/2025
#tradeXpresso: tariffs are simple till they aren’t. Have a look at the U.S. tariff landscape: ecipe.org/publications...
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Lucian Cernat @lcernat.bsky.social · 18/08/2025
I am truly impressed by how much people read during holidays. Good job 👍 everyone on ResearchGate!
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Lucian Cernat @lcernat.bsky.social · 08/08/2025
#tradeXpresso: perfect timing for a new “mini-deal” that will facilitate trade between the European 🇪🇺 Union and Canada 🇨🇦. lnkd.in/eCUty6VB Still not sure how important are mini-deals for EU exporters? Check this out: ecipe.org/publications...
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Lucian Cernat @lcernat.bsky.social · 03/08/2025
#tradeXpresso: I guess establishing the new US tariff rate applicable to some products (and their origin) might drive a few people 🛃 nuts 🌰 🥜 !
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Lucian Cernat @lcernat.bsky.social · 18/07/2025
Well, I am in charge of the trade in goods 📦. So, yeah, I guess I am in charge of #Mode5Services as well! kluwerlawonline.com/journalartic...
kluwerlawonline.com
Thinking in a Box: A ‘Mode 5’ Approach to Service Trade - Journal of World Trade
View Thinking in a Box: A ‘Mode 5’ Approach to Service Trade by - Journal of World Trade
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Lucian Cernat @lcernat.bsky.social · 17/07/2025
#tradeXpresso: It's time for a new role at DG Trade. Starting a new position as Head of Trade in Goods, Tariff Negotiations, #TBT, Customs and #RoOs! Wishing the best to my former #PublicProcurement dream team, with whom I shared a number of successes over the years: (1/x)
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Lucian Cernat @lcernat.bsky.social · 01/07/2025
#tradeXpresso: big crowd at the Global Digital Collaboration #GDC25 event in Geneva! Key trade topics today: 🔹cross-border interoperability 🔹traceability across global supply chains It’s high time we walk the talk on trade and technology in Europe: ecipe.org/publications...
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Lucian Cernat @lcernat.bsky.social · 26/06/2025
#tradeXpresso: EU experts are working hard with WTO partners to remove key #TBT barriers that significantly affect over € 40bn of EU exports. As in the past, successful multilateral cooperation continues behind the trade war headlines! www.ceps.eu/ceps-publica...
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Lucian Cernat @lcernat.bsky.social · 20/06/2025
#tradeXpresso: the European Commission adopted the first measures under the International Procurement Instrument #IPI. The measures will be legally applicable in 10 days from the date of publication. ec.europa.eu/commission/p...
ec.europa.eu
Commission restricts Chinese participation in medical devices procurement
The European Commission decided to exclude Chinese companies from EU government purchases of medical devices exceeding €5 million. This measure follows the conclusions of the first investigation under...
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Lucian Cernat @lcernat.bsky.social · 13/06/2025
#tradeXpresso: three insights from a “trade and jobs” chart. ♦️The EU has the highest stakes in a functioning global trading system. ♦️1 in 20 jobs in Europe depends on transatlantic trade. ♦️ But RoW is 4x more important, so every trade deal counts! ecipe.org/wp-content/u...
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Tom Jenkins @tomoljenkins.bsky.social · 29/05/2025
Great work by @lcernat.bsky.social showing how Trump's tariffs would be affected by the US Trade Court decision
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Lucian Cernat @lcernat.bsky.social · 29/05/2025
Chart du jour: when it comes to US tariffs, nobody really knows anything (for sure). But this is how US tariffs could look like if today's US Court of International Trade ruling will roll back tariffs prior to the Liberation Day. Source: Based on the IMF-WTO Tariff Tracker.
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Lucian Cernat @lcernat.bsky.social · 25/05/2025
#tradeXpresso: chart du jour - currently applied #tariffs by the United States 🇺🇸. Source: based on the IMF-WTO Tariff Tracker. Simple averages across all products. May 2025.
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Lucian Cernat @lcernat.bsky.social · 21/05/2025
I am all in for #MUFC tonite!
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Lucian Cernat @lcernat.bsky.social · 17/05/2025
#tradeXpresso: incognito.
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Lucian Cernat @lcernat.bsky.social · 03/05/2025
No #tradeXpresso today.
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Lucian Cernat @lcernat.bsky.social · 30/04/2025
#tradeXpresso: if you hurry up, you still have time to register for the next CETA Regulatory Cooperation Forum with Canada 🇨🇦! We have over 7️⃣0️⃣ 0️⃣0️⃣0️⃣ EU firms (most of them SMEs) that export to Canada and we want to reach out to all of EU! policy.trade.ec.europa.eu/events/regul...
policy.trade.ec.europa.eu
Regulatory Cooperation Forum: Stakeholders debrief meeting
The seventh annual meeting of the Regulatory Cooperation Forum (RCF) will take place in Brussels on Wednesday 14 May 2025. Established under the Canada-European Union (EU) Comprehensive Economic and T...
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Lucian Cernat @lcernat.bsky.social · 19/04/2025
#tradeXpresso Lungo and global supply chains. www.linkedin.com/pulse/tradex...
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Lucian Cernat @lcernat.bsky.social · 09/04/2025
#tradeXpresso: in turbulent times every trade agreement counts for EU companies and #procurement offers big opportunities! Today we have added to our #Access2Procurement tool Albania 🇦🇱 BiH 🇧🇦 Serbia 🇷🇸 Kosovo 🇽🇰 North Macedonia 🇲🇰 Norway 🇳🇴 Iceland 🇮🇸 Liechtenstein 🇱🇮 webgate.ec.europa.eu/procurement/...
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Lucian Cernat @lcernat.bsky.social · 31/03/2025
#tradeXpresso: On my way to an interesting event today, to discuss our future trade priorities with key EU industries. The stakes are really high for both manufacturing and services sectors! I don’t have a crystal ball so I will rely on this: ecipe.org/publications...
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Lucian Cernat @lcernat.bsky.social · 29/03/2025
#tradeXpresso: chart du jour. The top world importer of goods and services is…
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Lucian Cernat @lcernat.bsky.social · 28/03/2025
#tradeXpresso: Exciting news for over 240'000 EU exporters to Switzerland🇨🇭, our 4th largest trading partner! 🥁📢 Our user-friendly #Access2Procurement tool now offers quick answers about opportunities to win public contracts in Switzerland! webgate.ec.europa.eu/procurement/...
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Reposted by Lucian Cernat
Trade Talks Podcast @trade--talks.bsky.social · 18/03/2025
Nobel Laureate Paul Krugman joins to discuss historical lessons plus new thinking on international trade, concerns over geographically concentrated production, industrial policy, AI, the Draghi Report, as well as tariffs under President Trump. 🎧 Listen 🎧: tradetalkspodcast.com/podcast/206-...
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Lucian Cernat @lcernat.bsky.social · 13/03/2025
#tradeXpresso: many things matter more than tariffs in EU trade policy and EU FTAs continue to make a positive difference to EU companies. Fact 👉 the value of Japanese public procurement contracts won by EU bidders: ¥4️⃣3️⃣’8️⃣0️⃣0️⃣’0️⃣0️⃣0️⃣’0️⃣0️⃣0️⃣ #Access2Procurement webgate.ec.europa.eu/procurement/...
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Lucian Cernat @lcernat.bsky.social · 28/02/2025
Anyone feels the same?
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Lucian Cernat @lcernat.bsky.social · 28/02/2025
#tradeXpresso: foreign bidders in EU procurement, in one chart. Key messages: • many foreign bidders win (full/partial) public contracts in Europe. • but foreign participation is very skewed: 1. proximity matters 2. trade agreements matter More: ecipe.org/wp-content/u...
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Lucian Cernat @lcernat.bsky.social · 20/02/2025
#tradeXpresso quiz: the participation of foreign bidders in EU public procurement is…. A. too little B. too much C. hard to tell without more data Some hints 👉: ecipe.org/publications...
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Tom Jenkins @tomoljenkins.bsky.social · 19/02/2025
Interesting finding in this report by @lcernat.bsky.social via ECIPE: a substantial fall in share of EU public procurement by UK firms since Brexit, though access remained mainly unchanged under the TCA, explained as a manifestation of the 'nocebo' effect ecipe.org/publications...
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David Henig @davidheniguk.bsky.social · 19/02/2025
All of this courtesy of the latest ECIPE paper on the EU and public procurement from @lcernat.bsky.social ecipe.org/publications...
ecipe.org
The Participation of Foreign Bidders in EU Public Procurement: Too Much or Too Little?
This policy brief examines EU public procurement data from the Tenders Electronic Daily (TED) to evaluate foreign bidders’ participation and success in winning EU public contracts. Despite data cove
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Lucian Cernat @lcernat.bsky.social · 14/02/2025
I always have Mode 5 thoughts…
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Catio Miles @catiomiles.bsky.social · 13/02/2025
Ha 👇😜
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Pasi Vaaranmaa @vaaranpa.um.fi · 14/02/2025
Moved to BlueSky in order to avoid #TradeValentines, but of course one has to admire this incurable romantic, @lcernat.bsky.social
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David Henig @davidheniguk.bsky.social · 14/02/2025
Once upon a time there were trade valentines, but I think all the trade folk have been ground down by events, so good that others should come to our rescue. PS those valentines gifts you all sent me haven't arrived yet...
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