Sign in

Lars Peder Haga

@larspederhaga.bsky.social
892 followers 634 following 272 posts

Associate Professor at the Air Force Academy, Norwegian Defence University College. Used to do Soviet history before I turned to Air Power studies.

PostsRepliesMedia
Lars Peder Haga @larspederhaga.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Det er ledig stilling som historisk arkivar hos Forsvaret på Jørstadmoen. Har du rett kompetanse og interesse, og gjerne erfaring med Forsvaret, er dette en super mulighet. www.finn.no/477643877
finn.no
Historisk arkivar · Fåberg · Forsvaret | FINN Jobb
Vil du forvalte Forsvarets historiske
010
Lars Peder Haga @larspederhaga.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
1/4 Two weeks ago, September 16, Russian strategic aviation again carried out a flight with two or three cruise missile carriers over the Barents and Norwegian Seas. This time Tu-95MS Bear-Hs. At least one carried a Kh-101 air launched cruise missile on one of the underwing pylons.
Screenshot from Ru MoD video of the sortie. A Tu-95MS Bear-H cruise missile carrier. It is a large airplane with four engines, each with two counter-rotating propellers, and reportedly extremely noisy.between the two engines on each wing, and between the innermost engine and the fuselage are large pylons shaped like inverted Ts with room for two cruise missiles. On the innermost pylon is a single cruise missile with the distinctive faceted, stealthy shape of a Kh-101.
152
Lars Peder Haga @larspederhaga.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
I must commend the Estonian security service's clear and specific languague in their press release. It was "an arson attack", "an act of sabotage" and one of many "kinetic attacks." The imprecise and analytically dubious H-word is nowhere to be found.
072
Lars Peder Haga @larspederhaga.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
After conflicting reports on a plane crash in the Russian Far East, the Russian MoD confirms that it was a Tu-95 (Bear-H) cruise missile carrier.
Screenshot from the "Fighterbomber" Telegram account: "A Tu-95 has crashed in Amur oblast. An official accident investigation commission is on its way. [May God grant them] Eternal Rest..."
150
Lars Peder Haga @larspederhaga.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Interesting about pay and work schedule for Russian air defence/interceptor drone crews. The two days on/two days off must seem like heaven to frontline FPV crews. (What cut do you have to give your recruiter to get this job?)
041
Lars Peder Haga @larspederhaga.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
Amazing shot of a nice shot.
0111
Lars Peder Haga @larspederhaga.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
Given the stated ambition for Nordic air forces to operate "as one", the restrictions in Nor airspace appear less than ideal. Possibly lifted for Finnish and Swedish military aircraft first?
092
Lars Peder Haga @larspederhaga.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
August numbers from @shahedtracker.bsky.social Slight increase in number of drones, with a marked uptick at the end of the month. Interception rate keeps falling and hasn't been that poor since last year. Likely due to increase in number of jet-powered drones and Ukr countermeasures lagging.
041
Lars Peder Haga @larspederhaga.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
I talked to @nettavisen.no about the risks in Russian airspace: www.nettavisen.no/nyheter/dron...
nettavisen.no
– Et spørsmål om tid før det skjer igjen
Luftrommet over Russland er ikke lenger trygt, sier Volodymyr Zelenskyj. Men det er ikke bare ukrainske droner som skaper utrygghet.
010
Lars Peder Haga @larspederhaga.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
With the increase in Ukrainian drone attacks and the air defense density around Moscow, I am pretty sure it is only a question of time before Russian air defense downs a civilian airliner.
193
Reposted by Lars Peder Haga
Auschwitz Memorial @auschwitzmemorial.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
24 August 1941 | A Jewish boy, Harry Simon Shotland, was born in Harstad in Norway. He was deported from Oslo to #Auschwitz on 24 February 1943 with his mother Eva. They arrived at the camp on 3 March 1943 and were murdered in a gas chamber after the selection.
Vintage black and white photo of a smiling woman wearing a stylish hat, holding a baby dressed in a white outfit.
26655173
Lars Peder Haga @larspederhaga.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
A near future with anti-flash white highways, and accompanying anti-flash goggles for drivers scores high on my dystopia-meter.
Black and white photo of three Avro Vulcan nuclear bombers flying in formation, painted in anti-flash white to keep them from melting from their own nukes.A USAf pilot wearing a white aviator helmet with oxygen mask and anti-flash goggles to prevent him from having his retinas burned to ashes by nearby (relatively) nuclear explosions. The goggles have huge, round black lenses, he resembles a helmeted tarsier with dead eyes.
060
Lars Peder Haga @larspederhaga.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
1/6 The Gorshkov-class frigate "Admiral Kasatonov" flying the state flag the 9th and today caused some stir, as flying a large state flag from the main mast traditionally is done in battle. I have honestly not paid much attention to the Russian navy's flag rules, but decided to look into it.
16118
Lars Peder Haga @larspederhaga.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
1/7 An interesting clip of a Russian Shahed-type drone apparently applying electronic countermeasures, specifically jamming the videolink of an Ukrainian FPV interceptor drone, highlights the importance of Electronic Warfare.
Screenshot from X, I am quote tweeting Dmytro Putiata (who you should follow).

My comment: "Electronic Warfare is at least not very visible in open source analysis and general public discourse on the war. Despite EW likely being one of the "big three" in defeating OWA UAVs, together with mobile fire teams and interceptor drones."

Dmytro's original tweet: "EW direction is one of the most underrated by NATO countries."
140
Lars Peder Haga @larspederhaga.bsky.social · 05/08/2026
1/3 @shahedtracker.bsky.social OWA-UAS statistics for July. The decline in numbers continue. I can only speculate in some reasons: 1: Hoarding of OWA UAS for the autumn and winter campaign.
100
Lars Peder Haga @larspederhaga.bsky.social · 30/07/2026
Nr 2 is the most Norwegian thing.
3474
Reposted by Lars Peder Haga
monitor @war-monitor.org · 03/07/2026
🇺🇦 Із Днем армійської авіації сухопутних військ всіх причетних!
13610
Lars Peder Haga @larspederhaga.bsky.social · 03/07/2026
Shahed Tracker (who you should follow) just published OWA-UAS statistics for June. A sharp drop in total numbers, average and median size of OWA UAS strikes since May, which was the all-time high since the beginning of the Russian campaign. Still the fifth highest number of OWA UAS in a month.
020
Lars Peder Haga @larspederhaga.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
Jeg har skrevet i Luftled nr 2/2026, som har luft- og missilforsvar som tema: luftled.info/drone-og-mis...
luftled.info
Drone- og missilkrigen i 2026: Norge er dårlig forberedt - Luftled
Dagens drone- og missilkrig utvikler seg raskt og har nådd et omfang og en kompleksitet som Norge og resten av Europa er dårlig forberedt på å møte. Norge bør trekke lærdommer fra Ukraina og begynne å...
021
Lars Peder Haga @larspederhaga.bsky.social · 26/06/2026
Just a couple of pictures of this flight from our side. Photos by the Royal Norwegian Air Force via NATO Aircom.
A Tu-160 Blackjack Russian strategic bomber followed by a Norwegian F-35 fighter, seen from the side. The Tu-160 is a large, white, streamlined aircraft. The F-35 is a grey combat aircraft with two vertical canted stabilizers. Under the wingtip an air to air missile on a pylon is visible.  Three aircraft against white clouds. From the top, a Tu-160 Blackjack Russian strategic bomber seen slightly from above. The variable geometry wings are in a forward position, the port side engine nacelles are visible. In the middle a Norwegian F-35. In the bottom of the image is a Russian Mig-31BM Foxhound interceptor. It appears to be banking and turning away from the other two aircraft, in the direction of the photographer. Because of that it presents the top side to the viewer, and the boxlike fuselage and wing fences are visible.
173
Lars Peder Haga @larspederhaga.bsky.social · 23/06/2026
1/4 June 22 Russian strategic aviation carried out a flight with two Tu-160 Blackjack cruise missile carriers over the Barents and Norwegian seas. Patrols in May or June are common. The planes came out of Ukrainka in the Russian far east, lasted 16 hours and required refueling.
Photo from the Russian MOD. An IL-78 Midas tanker seen from the cockpit of a Tu-160 cruise missile carrier. The IL-78 is a four-engine high wing plane with a grey underside. Under the wings and on the aft port side of the fuselage are pods for fuel hoses. The hose from the fuselage pod is extended, and the basket on the end is connected to the extended refueling probe on the Tu-160.
173
Lars Peder Haga @larspederhaga.bsky.social · 18/06/2026
TIL that lids on petroleum product tanks are floating in order to prevent combustible gases from building up. And that the technical term for what is happening here is a "tank-top toss", which sounds like something that happens in a strip club.
The viral picture from today's Ukraininan strike on the Kapotnya refinery in Moscow. In the bottom are large storage tanks. In the middle of the picture is a large fireball, with a black smoke plume on top. Above them is another, greyish plume. On the upper right side of the plume is a large circular metal lid, appearing to slide down to the right.
24416
Lars Peder Haga @larspederhaga.bsky.social · 17/06/2026
Great article by Fabian Hinz. A well researched and credible argument that the Tsirkon is a rocket-propelled quasi-ballistic missile rather than a hypersonic airbreathing cruise missile. open.substack.com/pub/luftlage...
open.substack.com
Not Quite a Diamond
Reassessing Russia’s Zircon Missile
121
Lars Peder Haga @larspederhaga.bsky.social · 17/06/2026
1/ Norwegian public broadcaster NRK has an article about an increase in intercepts of Russian military aircraft along the Norwegian coast, with a nice video of a recent intercept of a Su-24/Fencer by Norwegian F-35s www.nrk.no/nordland/her...
nrk.no
Her avskjærer et norsk F-35-fly et russisk overvåkningsfly
Mens Nato holder gigantøvelse ledet fra Bodø, tror ekspert russerne nå trapper opp i nord av frykt for Ukraina.
110
Lars Peder Haga @larspederhaga.bsky.social · 16/06/2026
1/5 Some more details about the intercepts of two Russian combat aircraft Friday.
110
Lars Peder Haga @larspederhaga.bsky.social · 15/06/2026
Must read.
000
Lars Peder Haga @larspederhaga.bsky.social · 15/06/2026
The Russian plan to keep their Tu-22M3s flying forever backfired badly today.
A pointy airplane in a steep nosedive towards a forest. The airplane is a Russian Tu-22M3 Backfire bomber.
021
Lars Peder Haga @larspederhaga.bsky.social · 13/06/2026
1/7 Some more ways to distinguish the Su-24MR/Fencer-E reconnaissance version of the Su-24 from the "regular" Su-24M/Fencer-D strike jet. And some comments on this intercept, which may hint at an interesting development.
1111
Reposted by Lars Peder Haga
GripenNews @gripennews.bsky.social · 12/06/2026
🇸🇪 JAS 39 #Gripen D during Ramstein Flag 26 #NATO 📷Flygvapnet
05313
Lars Peder Haga @larspederhaga.bsky.social · 04/06/2026
Wow. The Russian MOD is now suing Rheinmetall over unfinished work at the Mulino training centre: en.defence-ua.com/analysis/rus... h/t @ukbastard.bsky.social
en.defence-ua.com
russia Is Suing Rheinmetall for €47M Over, Training Centre It Used to Prepare Troops for 2022 Invasion | Defense Express
How Rheinmetall ended up fitting out training centre for the russian army, and when the project was terminated
141
Lars Peder Haga @larspederhaga.bsky.social · 02/06/2026
One year ago yesterday. Since then, the absolute number as well as proportion of air launched cruise missiles in Russian combined attacks like tonight's have been reduced, and the Russians seem to spend a lot of time and resources on shuffling their cruise missile carriers around between bases.
120
Reposted by Lars Peder Haga
The Barents Observer @thebarentsobserver.com · 31/05/2026
Wiped out Tu-142MR could be a significant blow to the Northern Fleet.
thebarentsobserver.com
Wiped out Tu-142MR could be a significant blow to the Northern Fleet
Ukrainian drones have destroyed two Russian Navy long-range aircraft, including a specialised Tu-142MR strategic radio-relay aircraft that plays a key role in communications with nuclear-armed submari...
18427
Lars Peder Haga @larspederhaga.bsky.social · 30/05/2026
1/9 A few observations on this strike and the aircraft involved.
173
Lars Peder Haga @larspederhaga.bsky.social · 28/05/2026
Timely repost
020
Lars Peder Haga @larspederhaga.bsky.social · 21/05/2026
An RQ-4D Phoenix from NATO's ISR Force at Sigonella, Sicily, landed at Ørland Air Station today. This is the first time this large ISR UAV is forward deployed to Norway. ac.nato.int
Screenshot from NATO ISRF homepage. A large grey UAV is rolling along a runway in a green spring landscape. The caption reads "A NATO RQ-4D Phoenix lands in Ørland, Norway, during the NISRF Agile Combat Employment (ACE). (Photo by Royal Norwegian Air Force)"
1307
Lars Peder Haga @larspederhaga.bsky.social · 08/05/2026
1/4 April 30, Russian strategic aviation carried out another flight with two Tu-95MS/Bear-H cruise missile carriers over the Barents. Patrols in April are less frequent than in February, but not unheard of.
131
Lars Peder Haga @larspederhaga.bsky.social · 12/04/2026
1/4 Norwegian daily @dagsavisen.bsky.social found the Instagram account of one of the pilots of the "Russkie Vitiazi". They asked me to comment on the footage from a Russian intercept of a Norwegian P-8 Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft and two F-35 combat aircraft: www.dagsavisen.no/nyheter/vi-e...
dagsavisen.no
Se video: Her flyr russeren rett under det norske overvåkingsflyet
Mens krigen raser, forteller en russisk jagerflypilot til Dagsavisen om hvordan det er å tjene landet - og om et uvanlig nært møte med norske fly i nordområdene.
111
Lars Peder Haga @larspederhaga.bsky.social · 03/03/2026
1/6 On February 27 the Norwegian Air Force's QRA intercepted two Tu-95/Bear-H strategic cruise missile carriers in international airspace over the Barents Sea. Russian Bear and Blackjack cruise missile carriers have flown patrols into the Barents and Norwegian Seas every February since at least 2020
A Russian Tu-95 Bear-H strategic cruise missile carrier photographed slightly from aft and below. A large aircraft with a relatively long and slender fuselage, high-set wings and four turboprop engines with contra-rotating propellers. The missile pylons under the wings appear empty.
141
Lars Peder Haga @larspederhaga.bsky.social · 17/12/2025
Great thread. The Swiss are figuring out what we did 80 years ago: - Protection by geography can be made irrelevant by technological change - It is too late to plan for assistance when you are under attack (- Pretending to be non-aligned/neutral is probably the worst of all solutions)
021
Lars Peder Haga @larspederhaga.bsky.social · 01/12/2025
Vi har en ledig PhD stipendiat-stilling ved Luftkrigsskolen - søknadsfrist 10. januar: arbeidsplassen.nav.no/stillinger/s...
arbeidsplassen.nav.no
Vil du forske på russisk krigføring i Ukraina? - arbeidsplassen.no
Doktorgradsstipendiat - russisk krigføring i Ukraina, Luftkrigsskolen, Forsvarets høgskole, Trondheim. Søknadsfrist: Søk senest lørdag 10. januar.
021
Lars Peder Haga @larspederhaga.bsky.social · 05/11/2025
Helpful
010
Lars Peder Haga @larspederhaga.bsky.social · 30/10/2025
Good thread on Poseidon's lineage.
000
Lars Peder Haga @larspederhaga.bsky.social · 26/10/2025
Gerasimov claims a successfull flight of the Burevestnik nuclear-powered cruise missile after more than two months of tests. www.thebarentsobserver.com/security/no-...
thebarentsobserver.com
No radiation measured in Norway after Putin's Burevestnik missile allegedly flew 14,000 km
The Chief of the General Staff, Valery Gerasimov, told Vladimir Putin on Sunday that a successful test of the Burevestnik missile was carried out on October 21, with the missile flying 14,000 km and s...
031
Lars Peder Haga @larspederhaga.bsky.social · 23/10/2025
This is also a feature of SAAB/Gripen that has made it a good match for Ukraine: Swedish flexibility and ingenuity around financing models. And of course risk acceptance.
020
Lars Peder Haga @larspederhaga.bsky.social · 22/10/2025
1/9 A few comments on today's announcement of Ukraine's intent to buy 100-150 SAAB Gripen-E multi-role combat jets.
Screenshot from today's press meeting. President Zelensky and prime minister Kristersson stand next to each other in front of a Gripen aircraft and a Ukrainian and Swedish flag. Via TV4.se
150
Lars Peder Haga @larspederhaga.bsky.social · 21/10/2025
I guess this should be called a counter-counterdrone drone strike.
130
Lars Peder Haga @larspederhaga.bsky.social · 18/10/2025
In the best Soviet tradition.
082
Reposted by Lars Peder Haga
David @puca.bsky.social · 17/10/2025
Two Sentinel 2 passes over Rogachevo Air Base in Novaya Zemlya today - one of which got a lucky break in the clouds. The aircraft involved Burevestnik test monitoring still appear to be there, so combined with the ongoing NOTAMs & continued presence of vessels, I don't think they're finished yet.
Sentinel 2 satellite image showing Rogachevo Air Base, today 17 October 2025.
The image is quite dark - however aircraft are just visible on the ground on the east side of the runway and appear to be Il-76 variants.
0154
Lars Peder Haga @larspederhaga.bsky.social · 07/10/2025
This is an intelligent approach. Fear and confusion are way too often mentioned as the desired effects of "grey-zone" or "hybrid" actions. They can however only be means to reach desired outcomes, by distracting us from what is at stake or coercing us from taking action.
120
Lars Peder Haga @larspederhaga.bsky.social · 02/10/2025
Important thread on the state of Russian civil aviation after sanctions and under heavy GPS (self-)jamming. TL/DR: It is extremely unsafe.
051