iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Larry O'Neill @larryoneill.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

Thanks! This must be a trying time to warn the fleet this early in the season as to the potential danger.

Larry O'Neill @larryoneill.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

Thanks! Here is the map from 1/1/1940-7/31/2026 from ERA5. At least on the spatial scales ERA5 can resolve, there hasn't been a low this deep in the Gulf of Alaska since 1940 in ERA5.

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Larry O'Neill @larryoneill.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

If you believe ERA5 hourly, it would be the lowest for 1979-2018 by quite a bit. I'll try to update this graph for data back to 1940-2026 shortly.

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Larry O'Neill @larryoneill.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

Frontogenetic, I see what you did there.

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Larry O'Neill @larryoneill.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

This is definitely not like the bipartisan effort in the 90's to improve NWS through strategic investment and reorganization.

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Larry O'Neill @larryoneill.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

Always left out is the strategic disinvestment by *Congress* over time to lead to this sort of outcome.

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Larry O'Neill @larryoneill.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

Also, this talk will be to alumni from OSU, so I'll be sure to bring up that you did your UG here. :)

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Larry O'Neill @larryoneill.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

Thank you! I have done about 2 dozen or so El Nino outreach talks in the past couple of months, and have a few more on the schedule. I don't quite have the capacity yet to recreate these types of very round wheels in my position (esp in near real time), so I appreciate it very much!

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Larry O'Neill @larryoneill.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

Awesome! Would you mind if I use this graph in a presentation (with attribution)?

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Reposted by Larry O'Neill

Washington State Climate Office @wastateclimate.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

💧Happy First Day of Water Year 2027!💧 Now that Water Year 2026 is complete, we want to hear from you! Fill out the The Water Year 2026 Impacts Survey TODAY to help us better understand hydrologic impacts from October 1, 2025-September 30, 2026. 🔗 uwashington.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_...

Decorative image of diablo dam with the logos of the Climate Impacts Group, WASCO, NIDIS, OCS, and OCCRI.

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Larry O'Neill @larryoneill.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

I wonder if these results hold broadly for "climate change" rather than "global warming"?

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Larry O'Neill @larryoneill.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Do you have a source I can point to in my outreach? Thanks for posting these!

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Larry O'Neill @larryoneill.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

Sweet dog! I guess it's their way of talking in their sleep.

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Larry O'Neill @larryoneill.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

I had a dog that did that! I wish I would have recorded it.

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Larry O'Neill @larryoneill.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

It's called a Godzilla El Nino. ;)

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Larry O'Neill @larryoneill.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

It's a lot of fathoms too, if you can fathom that.

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Larry O'Neill @larryoneill.bsky.social · 09/09/2026

That's like a month straight of cyclospora.

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Larry O'Neill @larryoneill.bsky.social · 09/09/2026

I've done a lot of outreach talks about this over the last few months, and using the headline of Godzilla El Nino always elicits several chuckles. So for entertainment value, it's not bad.

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Larry O'Neill @larryoneill.bsky.social · 09/09/2026

Regarding this heat wave, subsequent studies produced a very wide range of return intervals which deviated substantially from the original rapid attribution study. I think this event was a good case study for how uncertain these types of studies can be. journals.ametsoc.org/view/journal...

journals.ametsoc.org

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Larry O'Neill @larryoneill.bsky.social · 04/09/2026

An unusually lucid take on a complicated issue.

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Larry O'Neill @larryoneill.bsky.social · 03/09/2026

Nearly 4% of Oregon's land area too!

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Larry O'Neill @larryoneill.bsky.social · 31/08/2026

Don't take all the water! :) We're forecast to get in on this action in the PacNW over the next few days.

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Larry O'Neill @larryoneill.bsky.social · 24/08/2026

Someone made a big error in computing average relative humidity.

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Larry O'Neill @larryoneill.bsky.social · 24/08/2026

The figure you referenced is really wrong.

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Larry O'Neill @larryoneill.bsky.social · 24/08/2026

Here's the daily climatology of average relative humidity for LA and Miami.

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Larry O'Neill @larryoneill.bsky.social · 22/08/2026

The state of Oregon would like a word with you, re: tariffing your posts.

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Larry O'Neill @larryoneill.bsky.social · 22/08/2026

Portland, Oregon! The MAX train comes right to the terminal -- you don't even need to walk outside. It takes roughly 20 minutes to get into City Center on the red line.

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Larry O'Neill @larryoneill.bsky.social · 20/08/2026

Climatologists say that it has not been getting windier. A guy who snorts cocaine off toilet seats and drives around with dead bear cubs in his car says stronger winds over time can give you autism. For busy beachgoers, it can be hard to know who to trust.

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Larry O'Neill @larryoneill.bsky.social · 12/08/2026

This sounds awful -- I see the weather conditions are still pretty bad with 4-9% RH even now. I've spent some time in the area and this is sad to hear.

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Larry O'Neill @larryoneill.bsky.social · 12/08/2026

Holy cow, I've been so focused on Oregon that I didn't see how those blew up so much! I'm so sorry to hear about the suffering.

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Larry O'Neill @larryoneill.bsky.social · 12/08/2026

The plot was treated last year to remove a lot of vegetation, which was one purpose of the experiment, so I think the fire just creeped through along the ground and didn't obviisouly damage any of the instruments. :)

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Larry O'Neill @larryoneill.bsky.social · 11/08/2026

I suppose there is no word yet on whether the wind originated from inside the truck?

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Larry O'Neill @larryoneill.bsky.social · 11/08/2026

Well, it looks like the Grasshopper Fire in Oregon went through one of my weather stations in the last hour or so. But by some stroke of luck, it is still alive and reporting data for now!

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Reposted by Larry O'Neill

OCCRI @occri.bsky.social · 07/08/2026

Preparation for heat and smoke is becoming more critical to human health across Oregon and the Northwest, emphasizes recent New York Times article featuring Oregon's State Climatologist @larryoneill.bsky.social www.nytimes.com/2026/08/06/w...

nytimes.com

Wildfire Smoke Degrades Air Quality Across Washington and Oregon (Gift Article)

Air quality levels reached unhealthy levels across Oregon and Washington this week.

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Larry O'Neill @larryoneill.bsky.social · 06/08/2026

What's more, this appears to be the second highest AQI recorded in the Portland Metro area (at least since 2002) according to the EPA PM2.5 AQI monitor.

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Larry O'Neill @larryoneill.bsky.social · 18/07/2026

Could they be averaging it over time while it's locally reporting instantaneous values?

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Larry O'Neill @larryoneill.bsky.social · 15/07/2026

Hopefully the deliberative body will see through this given their late start times.

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Larry O'Neill @larryoneill.bsky.social · 15/07/2026

Introducing the "Make America Sunny Again" movement.

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Reposted by Larry O'Neill

Multnomah County, OR @multco.bsky.social · 14/07/2026

☀️ Portland summers are getting hotter! Those at high risk include older adults (especially men over 50 living alone), outdoor workers, pregnant people, and those without AC, to name a few. Make a plan to stay cool! Find cooling spaces near you at: link.multco.us/interactive-map-cool-spaces

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Larry O'Neill @larryoneill.bsky.social · 04/07/2026

For my work in Oregon and Pacific Northwest, there is a large divergence between historical hydroclimate outcomes between Very Strong El Niños and weaker. Very Strong tends to be wet while weaker tends to be dry-very dry. The forecast uncertainty of the El Niño strength is therefore challenging.

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Larry O'Neill @larryoneill.bsky.social · 04/07/2026

Who knows. But I did grow up next to Ellsworth AFB, which is nearby Rapid City and Mt Rushmore, and on days in which hail was even remotely possible, they would ground the fleet and move all planes into their hangars.

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Larry O'Neill @larryoneill.bsky.social · 04/07/2026

You would think, but 757s have been badly damaged by hail.

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Larry O'Neill @larryoneill.bsky.social · 04/07/2026

It'd be a shame if the new Trump force one came back all hail damaged.

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Larry O'Neill @larryoneill.bsky.social · 26/06/2026

Eerily similar to 2015, with a historically warm start to the year in the US west and a developing Very Strong El Nino.

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Reposted by Larry O'Neill

National Drought Mitigation Center @droughtcenter.bsky.social · 25/06/2026

After a very early snowmelt, #drought conditions have been ramping up in #Oregon. Gov. Kotek has declared a drought emergency for 19 of the 36 counties in the state. Last week, state regulators curtailed junior water rights between Bend and Redmond due to water shortages from the Deschutes River.

USDM Hot Topic June 25, 2026, Oregon. This week, abnormal dryness through extreme drought increased in Oregon: from 95.79% to 97.29% for abnormal dryness; from 86.19% to 86.63% for moderate drought; from 44.16% to 54.79% for severe drought; and from 9.24% to 16.4% for extreme drought. The Drought Severity and Coverage Index rose from 235 to 255 of 500.

The graphic includes the current Drought Monitor map for Oregon and the Drought Monitor time series for January 4, 2011, through June 25, 2026. For more statistics, please refer to the US Drought Monitor website: droughtmonitor.unl.edu.

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Larry O'Neill @larryoneill.bsky.social · 18/06/2026

They'll be serviced and will be good as new. The problem is that people had been laid off here at OSU who worked on OOI, so hopefully we'll have the personnel to continue.

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