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Marc Lamberts

@lambertsmarc.bsky.social
2.1K followers 1.6K following 760 posts

Historian | Football Data Scientist | Scout/analyst | UEFA + CAF license | 🇳🇱🇹🇿🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿

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Marc Lamberts @lambertsmarc.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
Data is always biased: Creating metrics from event data marclamberts.medium.com/data-is-alwa...
marclamberts.medium.com
Data is always biased: Creating metrics from event data
In sports media, and football in particular, statistics and data are often represented as fact. As undeniable facts which we can’t argue…
000
Marc Lamberts @lambertsmarc.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
Introducing Contextual Expected Threat (CxT) marclamberts.medium.com/introducing-...
marclamberts.medium.com
Introducing Contextual Expected Threat (CxT)
What happens when you stop simplifying the Bellman equation, one assumption at a time
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Marc Lamberts @lambertsmarc.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
Football language matters: Outliers vs Anomalies marclamberts.medium.com/football-lan...
marclamberts.medium.com
Football language matters: Outliers vs Anomalies
You know what I have underestimated for years? Communication in football. Whether that is within a football organisation, on social media…
010
Marc Lamberts @lambertsmarc.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
Building WAR for Football #3: Data collection, cleaning, manipulation & clarification marclamberts.medium.com/building-war...
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Marc Lamberts @lambertsmarc.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
NEW | How do clubs play in Veikkausliiga? 🇫🇮 Using different in possession and out possession metrics, I have analysed 5 different playing styles in the Veikkausliiga 2026. Read more ⤵️ marclamberts.substack.com/p/how-do-clu...
marclamberts.substack.com
How do clubs play in Veikkausliiga?
Playing styles in the Finnish top tier
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Marc Lamberts @lambertsmarc.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
Building WAR for Football #3: Data collection, cleaning, manipulation & clarification ⚽️📊💻 After criticising my own V1 model, in this article I focus on data collection, cleaning, manipulation, and clarification. Including a 12-league network. medium.com/@marclambert...
medium.com
Building WAR for Football #3: Data collection, cleaning, manipulation & clarification
Wins Above Replacement has been the topic of my dreams/nightmares for the last few months, and I’m afraid this won’t be changing for the…
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Marc Lamberts @lambertsmarc.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Building WAR for Football #2: Feedback on my initial model medium.com/@marclambert...
medium.com
Building WAR for Football #2: Feedback on my initial model
I have been thinking. A lot. WAR in football (soccer): how do I actually make it worth it? In the first instalment of this series, I went…
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Marc Lamberts @lambertsmarc.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Building WAR for Football #1: My first attempt at Wins Above Replacement medium.com/@marclambert...
medium.com
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Marc Lamberts @lambertsmarc.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
Introducing Expected Fails Forced (xFF) medium.com/@marclambert...
medium.com
Introducing Expected Fails Forced (xFF)
Recently, I have been having conversations with some data sceptics. Some are more respectful than others, but there’s something about it…
000
Marc Lamberts @lambertsmarc.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Tracking goalkeepers: Enhancing GK profiles with tracking data marclamberts.medium.com/tracking-goa...
marclamberts.medium.com
Tracking goalkeepers: Enhancing GK profiles with tracking data
Recently I got access to tracking data of the Premier League 2022–2023 season, and I was playing around with it. The initial idea was to…
020
Marc Lamberts @lambertsmarc.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Building WAR for Football #2: Feedback on my initial model ⚽️📊💻 I criticise my own WAR V1 model. There are so many things I forgot to include, made wrong/incomplete assumptions + neglected the intricacies of football dynamics compared to other sports. medium.com/@marclambert...
medium.com
Building WAR for Football #2: Feedback on my initial model
I have been thinking. A lot. WAR in football (soccer): how do I actually make it worth it? In the first instalment of this series, I went…
011
Marc Lamberts @lambertsmarc.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Tottenham: Average on-ball height of players #COYS #Spurs
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Marc Lamberts @lambertsmarc.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Enhancing GK recruitment profiles with tracking data ⚽️🧤📊 On-ball data only captures 2% of the 90 minutes for a goalkeeper. With tracking data, we can create off-ball metrics and profiles -> get a complete and better data profile of goalkeepers marclamberts.medium.com/tracking-goa...
marclamberts.medium.com
Tracking goalkeepers: Enhancing GK profiles with tracking data
Recently I got access to tracking data of the Premier League 2022–2023 season, and I was playing around with it. The initial idea was to…
010
Marc Lamberts @lambertsmarc.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Introducing the Probability Even Strength Index (PESI): how can we rank expected performances under even strength conditions? marclamberts.medium.com/introducing-...
marclamberts.medium.com
Introducing the Probability Even Strength Index (PESI): how can we rank expected performances under…
I can’t be the only one who feels like this from time to time. I have hit the wall in terms of creating or developing completely new…
000
Marc Lamberts @lambertsmarc.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Chess strategies in football: designing tactical passing styles based on chess ⚽️♟️ marclamberts.medium.com/chess-strate...
marclamberts.medium.com
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Marc Lamberts @lambertsmarc.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Tracking goalkeepers: Enhancing GK profiles with tracking data marclamberts.medium.com/tracking-goa...
marclamberts.medium.com
Tracking goalkeepers: Enhancing GK profiles with tracking data
Recently I got access to tracking data of the Premier League 2022–2023 season, and I was playing around with it. The initial idea was to…
000
Marc Lamberts @lambertsmarc.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Building WAR for Football #1: My first attempt at Wins Above Replacement marclamberts.medium.com/building-war...
marclamberts.medium.com
Building WAR for Football #1: My first attempt at Wins Above Replacement
Conversations are endless about a few things in sports analytics, but what I have done for years on end is discuss whether we can find a…
151
Marc Lamberts @lambertsmarc.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Finding overperforming strikers using contextual anomalies marclamberts.medium.com/finding-over...
marclamberts.medium.com
Finding overperforming strikers using contextual anomalies
I was reminiscing early this week about the days that I just spent hours in Tableau with Wyscout data and making scatterplots for the life…
021
Marc Lamberts @lambertsmarc.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Calculating triangular third-man runs with event data: how reliable are the results? marclamberts.medium.com/calculating-...
marclamberts.medium.com
Calculating triangular third-man runs with event data: how reliable are the results?
Data metrics and development always feel or look innovative. About 40% of the time, they are. It is very satisfying to create something…
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Marc Lamberts @lambertsmarc.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
Building WAR for Football #1: My first attempt at Wins Above Replacement ⚽️📊 A concept of WAR with many flaws, but sharing the whole process is important. Only portraying successful version isn't reality. Methodology, calculations and results ⤵️ medium.com/@marclambert...
medium.com
Building WAR for Football #1: My first attempt at Wins Above Replacement
Conversations are endless about a few things in sports analytics, but what I have done for years on end is discuss whether we can find a…
001
Marc Lamberts @lambertsmarc.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
The stagnation or evolution of zone 14? marclamberts.medium.com/the-stagnati...
marclamberts.medium.com
The stagnation or evolution of zone 14?
Once in a while, I have this illusion that I’m well-equipped enough to write a more data-journalistic piece. Don’t worry, the urge will…
000
Marc Lamberts @lambertsmarc.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Introducing Entropy-Adjusted Expected Goals (xG-adj) marclamberts.medium.com/introducing-...
marclamberts.medium.com
Introducing Entropy-Adjusted Expected Goals (xG-adj)
You can’t escape it if you are interested in football: Expected Goals (xG). Every football app has it listed with the shot data; you can’t…
010
Marc Lamberts @lambertsmarc.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
The geometry of control: short passes in Eredivisie 2025–2026 marclamberts.medium.com/the-geometry...
marclamberts.medium.com
The geometry of control: short passes in Eredivisie 2025–2026
If you ever wonder how I get to my ideas and think there’s a ridiculously academic process to it, let me kill that illusion. There isn’t…
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Marc Lamberts @lambertsmarc.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Very much a WIP, but with @skillcorner.bsky.social open Body Pose data we could detect scanning in players. This really is a gamechanger, to have this type of data.
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Marc Lamberts @lambertsmarc.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Morninggg
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Marc Lamberts @lambertsmarc.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
NEW| Enhancing GK recruitment profiles with tracking data ⚽️🧤📊 On-ball data only captures 2% of the 90 minutes for a goalkeeper. With tracking data, we can create off-ball metrics and profiles -> get a complete and better data profile of goalkeepers buff.ly/R8lHBq8
buff.ly
Tracking goalkeepers: Enhancing GK profiles with tracking data
Recently I got access to tracking data of the Premier League 2022–2023 season, and I was playing around with it. The initial idea was to…
010
Marc Lamberts @lambertsmarc.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Thank you so much, Dieter!
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Marc Lamberts @lambertsmarc.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
marclamberts.medium.com
Tracking goalkeepers: Enhancing GK profiles with tracking data
Recently I got access to tracking data of the Premier League 2022–2023 season, and I was playing around with it. The initial idea was to…
010
Marc Lamberts @lambertsmarc.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
Introducing Expected Fails Forced (xFF) marclamberts.medium.com/introducing-...
marclamberts.medium.com
Introducing Expected Fails Forced (xFF)
Recently, I have been having conversations with some data sceptics. Some are more respectful than others, but there’s something about it…
000
Marc Lamberts @lambertsmarc.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
Football language matters: Outliers vs Anomalies marclamberts.medium.com/football-lan...
marclamberts.medium.com
Football language matters: Outliers vs Anomalies
You know what I have underestimated for years? Communication in football. Whether that is within a football organisation, on social media…
001
Marc Lamberts @lambertsmarc.bsky.social · 07/09/2026
Data is always biased: Creating metrics from event data marclamberts.medium.com/data-is-alwa...
marclamberts.medium.com
Data is always biased: Creating metrics from event data
In sports media, and football in particular, statistics and data are often represented as fact. As undeniable facts which we can’t argue…
020
Marc Lamberts @lambertsmarc.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
Me after ad hoc requests last few days
static.klipy.com
Cute Panda Shiningpandas
ALT: Cute Panda Shiningpandas
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Marc Lamberts @lambertsmarc.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
Work with me? -> marc@waltzinganalytics.com or waltzinganalytics.com/services-2/
waltzinganalytics.com
Services – Waltzing Analytics
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Marc Lamberts @lambertsmarc.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
This can be utilised for in-possession and out-of-possession analysis. The model is trained on over 3 million passing events in 12 different seasons, with a five-fold 80/20 training/testing split.
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Marc Lamberts @lambertsmarc.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
NEW | Introducing Expected Fails Forced (xFF) 📊⚽️ How can we predict how much pressure leads to a forced failed pass? Using @impect-official.bsky.social data, I've designed a model that measures Expected Fails Forced. Methodology, calculations and examples ⤵️ medium.com/@marclambert...
medium.com
Introducing Expected Fails Forced (xFF)
Recently, I have been having conversations with some data sceptics. Some are more respectful than others, but there’s something about it…
120
Marc Lamberts @lambertsmarc.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
Introducing the Probability Even Strength Index (PESI): how can we rank expected performances under even strength conditions? marclamberts.medium.com/introducing-...
marclamberts.medium.com
Introducing the Probability Even Strength Index (PESI): how can we rank expected performances under…
I can’t be the only one who feels like this from time to time. I have hit the wall in terms of creating or developing completely new…
000
Marc Lamberts @lambertsmarc.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
Interquartile Ranges and Boxplots in Football Analysis marclamberts.medium.com/interquartil...
marclamberts.medium.com
Interquartile Ranges and Boxplots in Football Analysis
By writing regularly, I have concluded that I like discussing data from a sporting perspective: explaining data methodology through the…
010
Marc Lamberts @lambertsmarc.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
Ball Retention Value Model (BRV-Model): Measuring the progression value after a throw-in under pressure marclamberts.medium.com/ball-retenti...
marclamberts.medium.com
Ball Retention Value Model (BRV-Model): Measuring the progression value after a throw-in under…
In football data we are always looking to add value. There are obviously many ways to add value, but I really like to focus on set pieces…
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Marc Lamberts @lambertsmarc.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
The risks of using composite scores in data scouting marclamberts.medium.com/the-risks-of...
marclamberts.medium.com
The risks of using composite scores in data scouting
Struggles. More often than not, I struggle with what to write on this platform. There are so many interesting things to talk about, but I…
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Marc Lamberts @lambertsmarc.bsky.social · 30/08/2026
Archives | Lessons from the NFL for football: Explosive Plays marclamberts.medium.com/lessons-from...
marclamberts.medium.com
Lessons from the NFL for football: Explosive Plays
Basically, I’m really bad at writing intros, but trust me — this is a fascinating article to read. My aim for this article is to delve…
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Marc Lamberts @lambertsmarc.bsky.social · 30/08/2026
Archives | Modelling Post-Save Rebound Sequences with Hidden Markov Models marclamberts.medium.com/modelling-po...
marclamberts.medium.com
Modelling Post-Save Rebound Sequences with Hidden Markov Models
Goalkeeper data analysis is one of the hardest things I have experienced doing in this space. So why do I keep challenging myself to do it…
001
Marc Lamberts @lambertsmarc.bsky.social · 29/08/2026
Archives | The stagnation or evolution of Zone 14? marclamberts.medium.com/the-stagnati...
marclamberts.medium.com
The stagnation or evolution of zone 14?
Once in a while, I have this illusion that I’m well-equipped enough to write a more data-journalistic piece. Don’t worry, the urge will…
010
Marc Lamberts @lambertsmarc.bsky.social · 29/08/2026
Archives | Introducing Entropy-Adjusted Expected Goals (xG-adj) marclamberts.medium.com/introducing-...
marclamberts.medium.com
Introducing Entropy-Adjusted Expected Goals (xG-adj)
You can’t escape it if you are interested in football: Expected Goals (xG). Every football app has it listed with the shot data; you can’t…
010
Marc Lamberts @lambertsmarc.bsky.social · 29/08/2026
Archives | Faster decisions, harder passes? Introducing Time-to-Execute in xPass-models marclamberts.medium.com/faster-decis...
marclamberts.medium.com
Faster decisions, harder passes? Introducing Time-to-Execute in xPass-models
There was a time when I had the means and energy to write a new article every week, but with the appalling state of the world and genuinely…
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Marc Lamberts @lambertsmarc.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
Introducing the wa-setpieces Python package! 📊⚽️🐍 This package cleans, manipulates and handles set piece data from Opta, StatsBomb or Impect into workable event data, aggregated data and set piece visualisations Share with every set piece fanatic! 😁 waltzing-analytics.readthedocs.io/en/latest/
waltzing-analytics.readthedocs.io
wa-setpieces — wa-setpieces
Contents
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Marc Lamberts @lambertsmarc.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
I built a football shot-clock model using Markov Decision Processes , and I still don’t trust it marclamberts.medium.com/i-built-a-fo...
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Marc Lamberts @lambertsmarc.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
Data is always biased: Creating metrics from event data marclamberts.medium.com/data-is-alwa...
marclamberts.medium.com
Data is always biased: Creating metrics from event data
In sports media, and football in particular, statistics and data are often represented as fact. As undeniable facts which we can’t argue…
000
Marc Lamberts @lambertsmarc.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
Introducing Contextual Expected Threat (CxT) marclamberts.medium.com/introducing-...
marclamberts.medium.com
Introducing Contextual Expected Threat (CxT)
What happens when you stop simplifying the Bellman equation, one assumption at a time
010
Marc Lamberts @lambertsmarc.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
Introducing the wa-setpieces Python package! 📊⚽️🐍 This package cleans, manipulates and handles set piece data from Opta, StatsBomb or Impect into workable event data, aggregated data and set piece visualisations Share with every set piece fanatic! 😁 waltzing-analytics.readthedocs.io/en/latest/
waltzing-analytics.readthedocs.io
wa-setpieces — wa-setpieces
Contents
042
Marc Lamberts @lambertsmarc.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
Football language matters: Outliers vs Anomalies marclamberts.medium.com/football-lan...
marclamberts.medium.com
Football language matters: Outliers vs Anomalies
You know what I have underestimated for years? Communication in football. Whether that is within a football organisation, on social media…
001