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Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS® @kurtsaltrichter.bsky.social · 16/11/2025

Here’s who we have on deck for earnings this week.

Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS® @kurtsaltrichter.bsky.social · 15/11/2025

The AI ecosystem has pulled everything into its orbit, from US growth to uranium to oil and even staples. When one narrative drives all returns, the unwind is always far more violent than the melt-up.

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Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS® @kurtsaltrichter.bsky.social · 15/11/2025

Soft data is screaming recession, hard data says "nothing to see here." Until jobless claims spike or payrolls turn negative, equities will keep ignoring the noise and grind higher.

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Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS® @kurtsaltrichter.bsky.social · 03/11/2025

Here’s who we have on deck for earnings this week.

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Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS® @kurtsaltrichter.bsky.social · 01/11/2025

Russell 2000 earnings are up +45.7% YoY with 66% of companies beating estimates, the strongest profit acceleration since the post-COVID rebound. Margins are expanding again, signaling real leverage returning to Main Street.

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Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS® @kurtsaltrichter.bsky.social · 31/10/2025

The Fed is betting inflation ticks up. I’m betting it ticks down. More in today’s report 👇 www.kurtaltrichter.com/p/earnings-a...

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Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS® @kurtsaltrichter.bsky.social · 27/10/2025

The University of Michigan’s final October Consumer Sentiment reading came in at 53.6 vs. expectations of 55.0, holding near multi-decade lows. These readings typically align with periods of deep and extended economic downturns, highlighting how fragile consumer confidence remains.

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Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS® @kurtsaltrichter.bsky.social · 27/10/2025

Core inflation has stalled near 3%, still a full point above the Fed’s 2% target. Wouldn't be surprised to see this print a lot lower next month.

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Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS® @kurtsaltrichter.bsky.social · 26/10/2025

Retail control sales softened sharply in September. BofA’s internal data shows a far weaker trend than Census data, suggesting consumer momentum is fading beneath the surface. The strength in Q3 GDP may be the high-water mark before the slowdown shows up in Q4 data. Time will tell.

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Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS® @kurtsaltrichter.bsky.social · 26/10/2025

BofA’s tracking model shows Q3 GDP still running near 2.8%, driven by strong consumption. The economy continues to show surprising resilience even with elevated rates, but don’t mistake momentum for immunity. The Fed’s next move hinges on whether spending can hold into Q4.

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Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS® @kurtsaltrichter.bsky.social · 21/10/2025

The last 50 years remind us: cheap money isn’t normal, it’s cyclical.

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Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS® @kurtsaltrichter.bsky.social · 21/10/2025

Credit card delinquencies just hit their highest level since 2010. Total credit card debt is now over $1.2T, and more than 12% of accounts are 90+ days delinquent. Those with assets will be fine. Those with debt are getting crushed. The wealth gap isn’t closing, it’s accelerating.

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Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS® @kurtsaltrichter.bsky.social · 21/10/2025

Gold is behaving like a meme stock, not a safe-haven. www.kurtaltrichter.com/p/compressio...

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Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS® @kurtsaltrichter.bsky.social · 20/10/2025

The October University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report ticked down slightly from 55.1 to 55. Readings below 80 have historically aligned with recessions. Pair that with 1-year inflation expectations still elevated at 4.8%, and you have a classic stagflation warning signal.

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Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS® @kurtsaltrichter.bsky.social · 20/10/2025

Here’s who we have on deck for earnings this week.

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Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS® @kurtsaltrichter.bsky.social · 19/10/2025

When the next major crash hits, there will be signs, and this is one of them. The number of leveraged equity ETFs just hit a record 701. When leverage becomes a product, not a tool, it tells you where we are in the cycle…

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Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS® @kurtsaltrichter.bsky.social · 19/10/2025

When money moves into utilities, it’s rarely random. They’re the most bond-like sector in the market; predictable cash flows, steady demand, and a telltale sign that investors are getting defensive. Check out my latest report 👇 www.kurtaltrichter.com/p/compressio...

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Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS® @kurtsaltrichter.bsky.social · 05/10/2025

BofA expects one more cut of -0.25% in October and then -0.75% in the second half of 2026 for a terminal rate of 3-3.25%.

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Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS® @kurtsaltrichter.bsky.social · 03/10/2025

Valuation Market Impact Mild labor weakness can pull the S&P 500 down 10–15% as multiples slip below 20x. Deeper job losses often trigger 20–30% drawdowns. Severe recessions have historically driven 25–35% declines as earnings get cut and spending collapses.

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Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS® @kurtsaltrichter.bsky.social · 03/10/2025

Valuations Compress When Jobs Break When the labor market weakens, the S&P 500 has historically fallen from >20x forward earnings to below 20x. Deeper recessions push multiples even lower as earnings are cut, driving sharper equity drawdowns.

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Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS® @kurtsaltrichter.bsky.social · 03/10/2025

Unemployment Rate is a key cycle signal: • Early warning: >4.5% • Once it breaks 4.6%, history shows 5% often follows When joblessness climbs past these levels, the soft-landing narrative usually fades and markets begin pricing in an economic slowdown.

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Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS® @kurtsaltrichter.bsky.social · 03/10/2025

Jobless Claims are the early warning system for the economy. • First alert: 260k • Recession risk: 300k+ on the 4-week average Once claims cross these lines, the labor market has historically shifted from healthy to contracting, a key risk for stocks.

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Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS® @kurtsaltrichter.bsky.social · 03/10/2025

Job Openings (JOLTS) are slipping fast. • First warning comes if openings fall below 6.5M • A drop toward 5M has marked every recent recession When companies stop hiring and protect cash, consumer spending slows — and markets usually reprice quickly.

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Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS® @kurtsaltrichter.bsky.social · 23/09/2025

New cycle tights in credit spreads reinforce the all-clear for equity markets.

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Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS® @kurtsaltrichter.bsky.social · 15/09/2025

Netflix's homepage in 1999, one year after it launched.

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Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS® @kurtsaltrichter.bsky.social · 15/09/2025

Las Vegas tourist activity is down ~13%, the largest drop since COVID. If you are still charging outrageously high fees, eventually your customers are going to stop buying from you.

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Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS® @kurtsaltrichter.bsky.social · 13/09/2025

The bottom 50% of US households hold just 2.5% of total wealth. History shows when the Fed cuts rates at record highs, stocks hit even more records 12 months later. Asset owners will celebrate, the wealth gap will stretch even further.

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Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS® @kurtsaltrichter.bsky.social · 09/09/2025

S&P 500 $SPX futures are pressing into the apex of a rising wedge. Price has been grinding higher, but RSI has been trending lower since July, a textbook case of bearish divergence. A breakout is possible, but risk of a downside resolution is rising. $ES_F

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Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS® @kurtsaltrichter.bsky.social · 08/09/2025

Zooming out: over the past month the 10Y-2Y spread has bull-steepened +9 bps and the 10Y-3M +15 bps. In modern history, a sharp bull-steepening following a deep inversion has only occurred heading into recessions, making this one of the most important dynamics in markets today.

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Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS® @kurtsaltrichter.bsky.social · 02/09/2025

Rates are green, Dollar is green, Oil is green ➡️ that’s rising inflation expectations, exactly what I’ve been saying for weeks. $XLE just broke a ~9-month downtrend. Relative strength vs $SPX is still a little weak, but RSI is bullish. If the breakout sticks, energy leadership could be next.

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Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS® @kurtsaltrichter.bsky.social · 02/09/2025

Bear Chart Porn Incoming: Job openings keep leading the stock market lower. Every cycle tells the same story: labor weakens, stocks follow. 2008. 2020. And now ???

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Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS® @kurtsaltrichter.bsky.social · 24/08/2025

Here’s who we have on deck for earnings this week.

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Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS® @kurtsaltrichter.bsky.social · 21/08/2025

So I’m supposed to believe the Fed is about to cut rates when credit spreads are sitting at multi-month tights? Cutting here = loosening financial conditions just as inflation pressures re-accelerate. That’s a policy mistake in the making and likely the only cut of 2025.

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Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS® @kurtsaltrichter.bsky.social · 20/08/2025

Egg prices quietly heading toward a 52-week low.

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Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS® @kurtsaltrichter.bsky.social · 18/08/2025

The Fed's Overnight Reverse Repos, a key liquidity safety valve, have plunged to just $38B, the lowest since before the 2021 surge (from a $2.55T peak in 2022). Excess cash buffer is nearly gone as QT continues and Treasury supply surges. Expect volatility to ripple and accelerate through stocks.

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Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS® @kurtsaltrichter.bsky.social · 18/08/2025

Businesses are absorbing 64% of tariffs right now and not passing them on to the consumer.

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Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS® @kurtsaltrichter.bsky.social · 16/08/2025

The share of 401(k) participants taking hardship withdrawals has nearly doubled since 2022, hitting ~0.7% in Q2 2025.

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Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS® @kurtsaltrichter.bsky.social · 16/08/2025

Lower-income wage growth has slowed to 1.3% while higher-income growth accelerates to 3.2%. This widening gap means the consumer base is splitting: lower-income households cut back, while higher-income spending props up services and luxury, creating uneven market support.

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Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS® @kurtsaltrichter.bsky.social · 16/08/2025

Unemployment claims are climbing fastest for higher-income households. If white-collar stress builds, markets should brace for slower discretionary spending, a key driver for growth stocks tied to consumer demand.

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Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS® @kurtsaltrichter.bsky.social · 16/08/2025

Payroll growth is weakening across nearly every sector. A broad labor slowdown means softer consumer demand ahead, which pressures earnings expectations and raises the probability of more volatility in stocks.

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Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS® @kurtsaltrichter.bsky.social · 16/08/2025

Traders just shoved $6B into hedging ETFs while dumping $9B out of bullish leveraged ETFs in the past month. Wall Street isn’t chasing highs, it’s buying protection and dumping speculation… Opportunity exists when everyone is certain of an unknowable future.

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Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS® @kurtsaltrichter.bsky.social · 16/08/2025

Wall Street just funneled $6B into hedging ETFs, the largest wave since April.

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Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS® @kurtsaltrichter.bsky.social · 16/08/2025

August market multiples levels. $SPX sits at 6,449.80, grinding higher but flashing technical warning signals. • RSI never confirmed the H2 ‘24 highs • Relative strength to $VIX remains weak • Momentum now stalling at mid-June levels Upside: 6,600 Downside: 4,813 Risk/reward is tightening.

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Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS® @kurtsaltrichter.bsky.social · 14/08/2025

Housing inventory just hit 9.8 months, a level that’s only been seen at the doorstep of past recessions. Historically, when supply climbs this high, housing activity slows sharply and prices come under pressure. "BUT rates are coming down"

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Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS® @kurtsaltrichter.bsky.social · 13/08/2025

Tariff collections just hit an all-time high, $27.7B in July.

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Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS® @kurtsaltrichter.bsky.social · 12/08/2025

The $VIX is holding above its critical support at 14.77 after spiking to 20.38. A break below this level coincides with periods of market complacency, while sustained moves higher mark risk-off pivots. This range is worth watching closely.

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