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Ken Schultz @kschultz.bsky.social · 7h

missilethreat.csis.org/country/iran/

A map showing the range of Iran's various missiles. Los Angeles and San Diego are not in their range. Not even close.

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Ken Schultz @kschultz.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Headlines from 2011 and 2026...

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Ken Schultz @kschultz.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

Reupping this prediction... bsky.app/profile/ksch...

A post by me saying

Accounts from contemporary Chinese observers must be dismissed as unreliable, a history written by the victors. There is no way that the United States, in the words of one Chinese scholar, “just handed it to us.”

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Ken Schultz @kschultz.bsky.social · 19/09/2026

Had a chance to go snorkeling off Catalina Island last week. Very different from snorkeling in Hawaii.

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Ken Schultz @kschultz.bsky.social · 25/08/2026

Time to update this graph... Source: www.pewresearch.org/global/2026/...

Graph titled US Favorability in Major Allies showing percent of people having favorable views toward the US in Britain, France, Germany, Japan, and South Korea 2000-26. There is a very clear partisan cycle.

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Ken Schultz @kschultz.bsky.social · 24/08/2026

Guessing no one reads it anymore, and certainly not anyone is this administration, but Keohane and Nye had a whole chapter in Power and Interdependence about why the US doesn't always win in disputes against Canada despite its superior military and economic resources.

A table titled "Patterns of Outcomes in High-level conflict: Canada-United States" The table shows 16 cases whose outcomes favored the US, 16 that favored Canada, and 8 that were equal.

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Ken Schultz @kschultz.bsky.social · 23/08/2026

Seems like Canada is doing exactly what the National Security Strategy said we want it to do.

• Primacy of Nations - The world's fundamental political unit is and will remain the nation-state. It is natural and just that all nations put their interests first and guard their sovereignty. The world works best when nations prioritize their interests. The United States will put our own interests first and, in our relations with other nations, encourage them to prioritize their own interests as well. We stand for the sovereign rights of nations,

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Ken Schultz @kschultz.bsky.social · 22/08/2026

So about that cheap mystery beef. Either it’s not going to happen, or it won’t happen until after Labor Day. Just brilliant politics by the brightest minds. www.ft.com/content/7aab...

The official said the president would formalise the agreement by signing an executive order within the next two weeks.

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Ken Schultz @kschultz.bsky.social · 20/08/2026

Been a long time since I’ve seen these in the wild.

A collection of National Geographic magazines.

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Ken Schultz @kschultz.bsky.social · 18/08/2026

Every now and then I check in on the Article II treaty making process and confirm that it is broken.

A bar graph titled "Whither Treaties?" tracking the number of treaties submitted to the Senate and ratified in each year since 1977. The bars drop dramatically starting in 2009. The last ratification is in 2023. No treaties have been submitted or ratified in 2026 (and the one submitted in 2025 happened at the end of Biden's term).

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Ken Schultz @kschultz.bsky.social · 16/08/2026

An interesting example of correlation != causation. Grapefruit eaters have fewer heart problems because people with heart problems take drugs that interact with grapefruit.

Results show that demographic differences between active and lapsed consumers are minor, but active and lapsed consumers are considerably different from lost consumers. Active consumers are least likely to have health issues such as hypertension and high cholesterol. Compared to active and lapsed consumers, lost consumers are significantly more likely to have high cholesterol issues, a medical condition that often requires medications that interact with grapefruit. Lost consumers also tend to be older, come from less wealthy households, and be from smaller communities.

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Ken Schultz @kschultz.bsky.social · 09/08/2026

Just recalling this passage from the National Security Strategy (Nov 2025)

But the days in which the Middle East dominated American foreign policy in both long-term planning and day-to-day execution are thankfully over—not because the Middle East no longer matters, but because it is no longer the constant irritant, and potential source of imminent catastrophe, that it once was. It is rather emerging as a place of partnership, friendship, and investment—a trend that should be welcomed and encouraged. In fact, President Trump's ability to unite the Arab world at Sharm el-Sheikh in pursuit of peace and normalization will allow the United States to finally prioritize American interests.

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Ken Schultz @kschultz.bsky.social · 06/08/2026

As an addendum to the discussion of institutional neutrality clause in the Vanderbilt statement, I want to call out this passage. If I'm not mistaken, it articulates a political ideology and theory of social change before saying that universities cannot have such things.

To ensure this enduring success, American universities need to be firmly committed to their core purpose: the cultivation of a free and self-governing republic by the creation, preservation, and dissemination of knowledge through reason, argument, and evidence, rooted in the pursuit of truth and discovery at the frontiers of human knowledge and in a university culture of free inquiry, wide-ranging debate, and academic excellence.

If faculty and students seek to pursue the truth wherever it lies, a university cannot have a political ideology or pursue a particular vision of social change.

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Ken Schultz @kschultz.bsky.social · 01/08/2026

When you are defeated in the sense of “unable to achieve your goals” but not defeated in the sense of “unable to continue military operations” then you are perpetually “headed for defeat” until you decide to end it. That’s how you get forever wars.

In Iran, the U.S.
Appears Headed for a Strategic Defeat, Allies
Fear

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Ken Schultz @kschultz.bsky.social · 26/07/2026

You can’t message a war into being popular without changing the underlying reality. Good paper on this from Baum and Groeling. www.jstor.org/stable/40930...

Reality Asserts Itself: Public Opinion on Iraq and the Elasticity of Reality Matthew A. Baum and Tim Groeling
Abstract
Prevailing theories hold that U.S. public support for a war depends
primarily on its degree of success, U.S. casualties, or conflict goals. Yet, research into the framing of foreign policy shows that public perceptions concerning each of these factors are often endogenous and malleable by elites. In this article, we argue that both elite rhetoric and the situation on the ground in the conflict affect public opinion, but the qualities that make such information persuasive vary over time and with circumstances. Early in a conflict, elites (especially the president) have an informational advantage that renders public perceptions of "reality" very elastic. As events unfold and as the public gathers more information, this elasticity recedes, allowing alternative frames to challenge the administration's preferred frame. We predict that over time the marginal impact of elite rhetoric and reality will decrease, although a sustained change in events may eventually restore their influence. We test our argument through a content analysis of news coverage of the Iraq war from 2003 through 2007, an original survey of public attitudes regarding Iraq, and partially disaggregated data from more than 200 surveys of public opinion on the war.

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Ken Schultz @kschultz.bsky.social · 15/07/2026

The Berlin Holocaust Memorial at night 📷

A row lined with rectangular stones with the rectangular windows of an apartment building in the background.

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Ken Schultz @kschultz.bsky.social · 11/07/2026

The Tulip Stairs, Queen’s House, Greenwich 📷

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Ken Schultz @kschultz.bsky.social · 21/06/2026

Quirky find at the Ambrosiana museum in Milan: gloves worn by Napoleon at Waterloo.

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Ken Schultz @kschultz.bsky.social · 20/06/2026

View from the Palazzo Borromeo on Lake Maggiore, Italy. 📷

View through a on open door looking out on lake with an island and mountains behind. The doorway is ornately decorated with stones.

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Ken Schultz @kschultz.bsky.social · 16/06/2026

When Trump withdrew from JCPOA in 2018, Mike Pompeo gave a speech outlining a set of demands that any new agreement would have to meet. If we want to judge, not just the outcome of this war, but the broader project of renegotiating the Iran deal, this is a useful yardstick.

So what should it be? We must begin to define what it is that we demand from Iran.

First, Iran must declare to the IAEA a full account of the prior military dimensions of its
nuclear program, and permanently and verifiably abandon such work in perpetuity.

Second, Iran must stop enrichment and never pursue plutonium reprocessing. This
includes closing its heavy water reactor.

Third, Iran must also provide the IAEA with unqualified access to all sites throughout the
entire country.

Iran must end its proliferation of ballistic missiles and halt further launching or
development of nuclear-capable missile systems.

Iran must release all U.S. citizens, as well as citizens of our partners and allies, each of
them detained on spurious charges.

Iran must end support to Middle East terrorist groups, including Lebanese Hizballah,
Hamas, and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad.

Iran must respect the sovereignty of the Iraqi Government and permit the disarming,
demobilization, and reintegration of Shia militias.

Iran must also end its military support for the Houthi militia and work towards a peaceful
political settlement in Yemen.

Iran must withdraw all forces under Iranian command throughout the entirety of Syria.

Iran, too, must end support for the Taliban and other terrorists in Afghanistan and the
region, and cease harboring senior al-Qaida leaders.

Iran, too, must end the IRG Qods Force's support for terrorists and militant partners
around the world.

And too, Iran must end its threatening behavior against its neighbors - many of whom are
U.S. allies. This certainly includes its threats to destroy Israel, and its firing of missiles into
Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. It also includes threats to international
shipping and destructive - and destructive cyberattacks.

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Ken Schultz @kschultz.bsky.social · 28/05/2026

Saying goodbye to Zurich, my home away from home for the past 8 months. Thanks for a great time.

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Ken Schultz @kschultz.bsky.social · 24/05/2026

Wildflowers and wild mountains (Grosser Mythen peak, Switzerland)📷

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Ken Schultz @kschultz.bsky.social · 20/05/2026

The plan to put him in power involved bombing his home??

Mr. Ahmadinejad was injured on the war's first day by an Israeli strike at his home in Tehran that had been designed to free him from house arrest, the American officials and an associate of Mr. Ahmadinejad said.
He survived the strike, they said, but after the near miss he became disillusioned with the regime change plan.

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Ken Schultz @kschultz.bsky.social · 18/05/2026

Switzerland’s incomparable Lauterbrunnen Valley. (Said to be the inspiration for Tolkien’s Rivendell.) To make it a truly Swiss experience, the photo was taken from a moving train. 📷

An idyllic valley with two waterfalls. A town with a charming church is nestled within, next to a churning river.

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Ken Schultz @kschultz.bsky.social · 26/04/2026

View on the Stoosbahn, the steepest funicular rail in Europe, with a maximum angle of 47.7 degrees. The circular cabins rotate to keep passengers level.

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Ken Schultz @kschultz.bsky.social · 24/04/2026

He’s literally doing the bit from Casablanca.

President Trump, when asked on Thursday about government employees using prediction markets, said, "The whole world unfortunately has become somewhat of a casino."

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Ken Schultz @kschultz.bsky.social · 23/04/2026

Royal burial mounds from the 4th-6th century in Gyeongju, South Korea.

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Ken Schultz @kschultz.bsky.social · 21/04/2026

Seoul skyline and Banpo Bridge Rainbow Fountain 📷

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Ken Schultz @kschultz.bsky.social · 19/04/2026

This place is crazy spectacular at night.

On the left , lighted trees. On the right, several pavilions glow gold. All reflected in water.

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Ken Schultz @kschultz.bsky.social · 19/04/2026

Wolji pond in Gyeongju, South Korea

An island of colorfully lit trees with its reflection in the water.

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Ken Schultz @kschultz.bsky.social · 16/04/2026

Bet there isn’t an immersive VR experience on the north side of the DMZ. Capitalism ftw

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Ken Schultz @kschultz.bsky.social · 14/04/2026

The crazy route my flight just took from Warsaw to Seoul.

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Ken Schultz @kschultz.bsky.social · 12/04/2026

The Hungarian parliament building, soon under new management.

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Ken Schultz @kschultz.bsky.social · 12/04/2026

Magical view of Lake Lucerne from Stoos 📷

The lake glows gold as sun beams break through clouds. The are mountains all around and a town on green rolling hills below.

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Ken Schultz @kschultz.bsky.social · 12/04/2026

Cat statue wishing it were a real cat.

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Ken Schultz @kschultz.bsky.social · 12/04/2026

Real fall of the Roman empire vibes here

Round after round, fight after fight, Mr.
Trump watched as pairs of competitors sparred in a cage covered in ads for Monster energy drinks, assorted crypto and betting sites, and Bud Light beer. The floor was stained with splotches of dried blood from the first match of the evening, when a fighter took a hard hit to the forehead.

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Ken Schultz @kschultz.bsky.social · 09/04/2026

Can't say I find this characterization of the administration's decision making process very confidence inspiring.

The influential talk radio host Mark Levin, who has Mr. Trump’s ear, has been highly critical of the cease-fire. The U.S. official said that Mr. Trump could sour on the agreement if those voices were not offset by prominent war critics like the former Fox News host Tucker Carlson.

Mr. Trump could also be triggered by Iran’s boastful domestic messaging, which is consistent with the kind of posturing routine in Middle East diplomacy, but which might provoke a U.S. president highly attuned to appearances.

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Ken Schultz @kschultz.bsky.social · 03/04/2026

Some of the churches in Zurich have put roses in their fountains for Easter week. It’s a delightful tradition dating back to 2021 (hey, not all traditions have to be centuries old).

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Ken Schultz @kschultz.bsky.social · 01/04/2026

Strong statement by Senator Rubio here. I wonder if Secretary Rubio agrees! www.kaine.senate.gov/press-releas...

“The Senate should maintain oversight on whether or not our nation withdraws from NATO. We must ensure we are protecting our national interests and protecting the security of our democratic allies,” said Rubio.

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Ken Schultz @kschultz.bsky.social · 30/03/2026

The exhibit starts with a replica of a viewing platform that had an enormous statue of Stalin that was torn to its boots in 1956. At the end of the park, you look back and see the boots, but you can’t tell if someone is wearing them—a timely reminder to be vigilant against tyranny’s return.

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Ken Schultz @kschultz.bsky.social · 30/03/2026

Hungary came up with a clever way to deal with statues from the period of Soviet occupation: they created park designed to exhibit and learn from them.

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