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Kostya Ovsiannikov

@kovsiannikov.com

🇺🇦 assistant prof. at Kochi University of Technology (KUT) | political economy | labor economics | experimental economics | 🇯🇵 studies 🔗 kovsiannikov.com

Posts Replies Media

Reposted by Kostya Ovsiannikov

Andrés Rodríguez-Pose @rodriguez-pose.bsky.social · 27/07/2025

Where the world’s discontented fight, rural Japan picks the same party. As @hajent.bsky.social sky.social‬ & @kovsiannikov.com show in JEPOP, #populism thrives on absence. In #Japan’s declining towns, the state never left, with subsidies & social ties guaranteeing stability.doi.org/10.1080/1745...95

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Kostya Ovsiannikov @kovsiannikov.com · 04/07/2025

Yet, as the most recent 2024 elections have shown, the crisis for the ruling coalition has already kicked in: with the decline of “rapidly depopulating” municipalities’ electorate, their continuing support for LDP may no longer be enough to secure LDP’s nationwide hegemony. 9/9

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Kostya Ovsiannikov @kovsiannikov.com · 04/07/2025

In a nutshell, the combined effects of high aging rates, ongoing interregional redistribution, and relatively stable socio-spatial boundaries preserve the electoral status-quo in favor of the incumbent LDP. 8/n

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Kostya Ovsiannikov @kovsiannikov.com · 04/07/2025

“Electoral stability” is encapsulated by (1) high voter turnout, (2) strong support for the LDP (2), and (3) low support for the so-called “third parties”. 7/n

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Kostya Ovsiannikov @kovsiannikov.com · 04/07/2025

We find that, despite the persisting socio-economic decline of “rapidly depopulating” municipalities, the ones that remained intact throughout the mid-2000s' merger wave nevertheless display consistent “electoral stability”. 6/n

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Kostya Ovsiannikov @kovsiannikov.com · 04/07/2025

𝐾𝑎𝑠𝑜 𝑐ℎ𝑖𝑖𝑘𝑖 are known for high shares of the elderly and relatively weak economic standing, being therefore eligible for additional fiscal support. 5/n

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Kostya Ovsiannikov @kovsiannikov.com · 04/07/2025

Based on municipal-level data across four general elections between 2012 and 2021, we analyze electoral behavior in municipalities designated as “rapidly depopulating” (𝑘𝑎𝑠𝑜 𝑐ℎ𝑖𝑖𝑘𝑖). 4/n

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Kostya Ovsiannikov @kovsiannikov.com · 04/07/2025

We argue that Japan 🗾 constitutes a key case to advance our understanding of the relationship between regional decline and electoral behavior. 3/n

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Kostya Ovsiannikov @kovsiannikov.com · 04/07/2025

Regional decline has been linked to the rise of anti-establishment parties and politicians. The case of Japan 🗾 challenges this notion. In fact, Japan’s rapidly shrinking rural areas have remained strongholds of the long-term governing party, the LDP. 2/n

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Kostya Ovsiannikov @kovsiannikov.com · 04/07/2025

📢 New publication with @hajent.bsky.social @JEPOP. "In decline, but not left behind? Electoral behavior in Japan's depopulating regions": www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.... Below is a brief summary of the article 🧵 1/n

tandfonline.com

In decline, but not left behind? Electoral behavior in Japan's depopulating regions

In Europe and the US, regional inequalities have been linked to growing electoral support for right-wing populist parties. In contrast, Japan's rapidly shrinking rural areas have continued to suppo...

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