iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Russell Degnan @knottedpaths.bsky.social · 07/08/2026

Not saying Poss is wrong here, but doing this would blow up the entire AEMO Integrated System Plan. Battery storage is designed for short periods (12-24 hours) and has high output but small stores of energy. Snowy 2.0 is projected to be more than half of all stored energy.

Graph of projected energy capacity (GWh) showing Snowy 2.0 represents more than half of stored energy, essential for extended renewable lulls.

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Russell Degnan @knottedpaths.bsky.social · 05/04/2026

There graphs were pre-covid and for Australia which has some differences re housing but the general shape will be the same. The big change was loans from the 90s got cheaper over time, though that first 5 years dominates the cumulative spend.

Percent of weekly earnings for a variable home loan taken out at different times. There is a large variation at the start of loans that declines over time. Recent loans are historically high at the mid point of the loan

Cumulative prevent of weekly earnings for different 30 year loans. The sum of the previous graph. Other than 1989 recent loans are consuming a lot more income.

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Russell Degnan @knottedpaths.bsky.social · 19/02/2026

A few years ago I looked at population projections in historical planning documents against actual growth and it was incredible how far off the estimates are in terms of timing (both above and below, but in recent times almost always below)

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Russell Degnan @knottedpaths.bsky.social · 22/12/2025

According to the plant app I have. A Large Painted Lady. South African origin.

Large Painted Lady details. Also a Wild or Wavy Gladiolus

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Russell Degnan @knottedpaths.bsky.social · 29/11/2025

When the cable tram was introduced it was relocated to Spring Street on the site of what is now Parliament Station. Then relocated again for the City Loop in the 80s It was on Swanston for less than 40 years and would block pedestrians if returned More shots below throughout the 20thC

City Square as shown in a Long Way to the Top - AC/DC. No statue [1976]

I.C.I. Building, and Burke & Wills Statue. [1955?]

Burke & Wills Statue, Spring Street. [1945-1954]

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Russell Degnan @knottedpaths.bsky.social · 29/11/2025

Except, as the drawing in the article shows, it wasn't at the corner of Swanston and Collins in 1865. It was smack bang in the middle of Collins at Russell St. Here are several shots of it courtesy of the SLV.

Burke and Wills unveiling at Collins / Russell, with Old Treasury in the background.

Congregational Church & Burke Wills Monument (ca 1880-1890)

Monument of Burke & Wills, Melbourne (ca 1870-1880)

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Russell Degnan @knottedpaths.bsky.social · 29/11/2025

The great thing about the outrage machine is you can crank it up without any sort of adherence to facts. Take the "outrage" over the Burke and WIlls statue. thenightly.com.au/australia/vi...

The Burke and Wills monument, sculpted by Charles Summers and unveiled in 1865, had previously been located on the corner of Swanston and Collins streets until 2017 - when it was removed to make way for the Metro Tunnel Project.

Since then it has gathered duest in storage.

But instead of being returned to the spot where it has resided for more than 150 years, the monument is now slated to be sent to the Royal Society of Victoira on La Trobe Street.

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Russell Degnan @knottedpaths.bsky.social · 21/09/2025

The point is that historically changes in primary vote are generally large for the government and small for the opposition. So both party's primary vote change (mostly down) relative to Others while in power while staying fairly stable while in opposition, and for Labor that was 2007-2013.

Graph of change in government primary vs change in opposition primary vote, showing only three elections where the opposition had a larger primary change (2007, 2019 and 2025)

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Russell Degnan @knottedpaths.bsky.social · 20/09/2025

Labor's vote collapsed prior to 2013. Taking the longer view, following 2007 every election saw a vote against the incumbent and minimal change for the opposition. 2025 is an anomaly (Dutton?) because it hurt the opposition (with a tiny gov't gain). There is no parallel election in recent history

Graph of major party primary against their proportion of that primary showing a consistent drop in major party support generally against the incumbent since 2007.

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Russell Degnan @knottedpaths.bsky.social · 03/06/2025

Minimum wage rises are a good time to remember that unless you are working more than 30 hours a week on that wage the majority of the increase goes back to the government (from reduced Centrelink payments and tax).

Graph of overall take-home pay increase from minimum wage for single person incomes on Centrelink. For persons working 20 hours per week the effective marginal tax increase is 58%

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Russell Degnan @knottedpaths.bsky.social · 02/06/2025

This graph plots the major party vote against their two-party primary and shows a couple of interesting trends: 1) The ALP government of the 80s and LIberals of the 90s had big swings in their primary vote, but quite small changes in the opposition. Essentially, people judged the government

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Russell Degnan @knottedpaths.bsky.social · 02/06/2025

What it doesn't show well is how precarious their position was in Queensland, in terms of hitting the window between Labor or Liberal votes being too high, and their vote too low. The below graph should be read as a conversion from 3CP to 2PP based on different 3CP positions (the individual lines)

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Russell Degnan @knottedpaths.bsky.social · 07/03/2025

This advice is not entirely helpful...

A sign on the door says "The Royal Melbourne Hospital". Next to it says: "No emergency department. If you require emergency care the closest emergency care is The Royal Melbourne Hospital"

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Russell Degnan @knottedpaths.bsky.social · 28/02/2025

Back in 2007-2013 I played with Senate plots that used 2-party on the x-axis and minor on the y-axis. Allowed me to plot quota lines as well as points where they were guaranteed second or third place.

Shift in 2-party and minor party share in 2010 Senate federal election. Strong shift to minors but little cross movement.

Tasmania 2-party and minor vote shares and final seat distribution from 1983

Queensland 2-party and minor party shares in Senate federal elections from 1984 to 2007 showing shifts away from governing parties to minors through 80s and 90s

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Russell Degnan @knottedpaths.bsky.social · 27/01/2025

Interesting side note to the Colombia tariff story is that coffee prices are already at an all time high because of Brazilian rainfall. Sticking a 50% tariff on top of a price that is twice the average is wild.

10y graph of Arabica coffee prices showing it rise from less than 150 to 250 in 2020 then 350 since 2024

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Russell Degnan @knottedpaths.bsky.social · 06/12/2024

It is a common concern, but it seems to deter women more. Across both Australia LGAs and international cities a doubling of cycling mode share typically results in an increase in the proportion of women cycling (usually by 5-10%). usa.streetsblog.org/2021/05/13/s...

Proportion of women cycling across international cities showing a 50% split in cities with mode share above 15% and a 20-80 split at very low mode shares (<5%)

Logarithmic graph of mode share against proportion of women cycling by commute for Australian LGAs showing substantially higher proportion of women cycling as mode share increases.

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Russell Degnan @knottedpaths.bsky.social · 27/12/2023

Reading this article and being reminded of this now 20 year old joke that in our modern dystopia eventually becomes true to life defector.com/youre-supposed-to-be-glad-your-tesla-is-a-brittle-heap-of-junk

An old joke apocryphally from GM on what cars would be like if made by Microsoft

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