iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Mikhail Khodorkovsky @khodorkovsky.com · 27/09/2026

Russia built "Dead Hand" to retaliate even after its leaders were killed. But who decides to launch? New evidence suggests it could now be a machine: blog.khodorkovsky.com/p/could-a-ma...

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Mikhail Khodorkovsky @khodorkovsky.com · 25/09/2026

Putin says he must conquer Donbas to save people from the “Kyiv regime.” Then why is he willing to stop at the front line in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia? Why can those people be left “unsaved”? His own position exposes the absence of logic in that justification.

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Mikhail Khodorkovsky @khodorkovsky.com · 25/09/2026

Putin: The war will continue until its root causes are eliminated. The root cause of the war:

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Mikhail Khodorkovsky @khodorkovsky.com · 22/09/2026

Ceasefires without strong military deterrence only grant Putin time to regroup, rearm, and strike again. Having broken every signed agreement from domestic laws to international treaties, he only respects unmistakable, physical force.

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Mikhail Khodorkovsky @khodorkovsky.com · 22/09/2026

Putin wanted to stop NATO expansion, but his war in Ukraine forced Europe to rearm and spend record sums on defense. Instead of pushing the alliance away, he brought it closer, doubled the border with NATO, and left Russia vastly weaker and more isolated than before

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Mikhail Khodorkovsky @khodorkovsky.com · 21/09/2026

In 2003, I showed Putin a corrupt transaction in which around $400 million had been stolen from the national budget. Years later, I learned that it went straight into his pocket. If you want to understand Putin's regime from the inside out, you should read How to Slay a Dragon: blog.khodorkovsky.com

blog.khodorkovsky.com

How to Slay a Dragon | Mikhail Khodorkovsky | Substack

Russia, geopolitics, and the fight for what comes after Putin. Click to read How to Slay a Dragon, by Mikhail Khodorkovsky, a Substack publication with thousands of subscribers.

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Mikhail Khodorkovsky @khodorkovsky.com · 20/09/2026

Trump’s alleged liking for Putin does not prevent him from welcoming a bill that expands his own powers. He gets another instrument, with considerable freedom over how to use it. I expect him to use it much as he has used the instruments already available to him. [6/6]

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Mikhail Khodorkovsky @khodorkovsky.com · 20/09/2026

The package also gives Trump a way to replace tariffs struck down by the US Supreme Court because he lacked the authority to impose them. Similar tariffs could be introduced under the new legislation. It would be strange if he did not use that opportunity. [5/6]

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Mikhail Khodorkovsky @khodorkovsky.com · 20/09/2026

Russia’s two largest trading partners are China and India. I think the chances of Trump imposing the full 100% tariffs on either country are extremely small. The bill allows tariffs of up to 100%, giving him room to choose. [4/6]

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Mikhail Khodorkovsky @khodorkovsky.com · 20/09/2026

Trump can grant broad exemptions in America’s national interest. US–Russia trade is already very small, and energy imports have long since stopped. What remains could easily be treated as an exception. [3/6]

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Mikhail Khodorkovsky @khodorkovsky.com · 20/09/2026

The law provides for a 500% tariff on Russian imports and tariffs of up to 100% on goods from countries that buy from Russia. It also expands the options for action against the shadow fleet. On paper, these are severe measures. [2/6]

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Mikhail Khodorkovsky @khodorkovsky.com · 20/09/2026

The new US sanctions package looks very tough. 🧵But it gives Trump broader powers without concrete obligations to use them against Putin. [1/6]

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Mikhail Khodorkovsky @khodorkovsky.com · 18/09/2026

If you live in a country where the outcome of an election is actually unknown ahead of time, never take that for granted.

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Mikhail Khodorkovsky @khodorkovsky.com · 18/09/2026

"You Europeans will stop supporting Ukraine in six months. You Americans will not use force against me. I will talk to you politely. I don’t want a fight. But I will continue to do what I want. And who are you anyway?" blog.khodorkovsky.com/p/there-are-...

blog.khodorkovsky.com

The mobilization will not be televised. It will just happen

It is the fundamental error of the West to assume Putin is looking for a way out. He thinks he just has to hold on a little longer, and then everything will be fine.

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Mikhail Khodorkovsky @khodorkovsky.com · 14/09/2026

I do not expect Putin to stop the war while he believes political changes in Europe could weaken support for Ukraine. He thinks that reduced support would allow him to achieve his objectives and force Ukraine’s effective capitulation.

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Mikhail Khodorkovsky @khodorkovsky.com · 09/09/2026

What questions do you have about Russian politics, the war, or the future after Putin? Leave your thoughts in the comments. Recording my weekly Q&A for YouTube soon — will address what I find most interesting.

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Mikhail Khodorkovsky @khodorkovsky.com · 07/09/2026

The American negotiating team made a mistake in the spring by offering Putin a generous peace deal without a show of force. Putin has a purely bandit mentality. If you offer a bandit a compromise without first demonstrating strength, he just assumes you are weak.

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Mikhail Khodorkovsky @khodorkovsky.com · 04/09/2026

Can this war continue until 2030? Yes. The war will not truly stop as long as Putin is in power. The hot phase might fade into a frozen state, but a real, permanent peace treaty with this regime is impossible because Putin’s promises mean nothing.

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Mikhail Khodorkovsky @khodorkovsky.com · 02/09/2026

Putin has allowed the state to take over enterprises that "defended themselves poorly" from drones. In effect, owners have been told: if your plant is hit, you defend it yourselves. The state is dropping the main duty of any state — protecting its citizens from external attack.

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Mikhail Khodorkovsky @khodorkovsky.com · 02/09/2026

Moldova is not a NATO member, but it stands on NATO's threshold. From the point of view of a possible Russian attack, it is the most dangerous country in Europe today.

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Mikhail Khodorkovsky @khodorkovsky.com · 02/09/2026

Russia is the only country supplying Iran with the intelligence that lets it strike American bases and Iran's neighbors whenever Tehran decides to. China helps far less, as far as open information allows us to judge. That, I am all but certain, is what the CIA director came to Moscow about

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Mikhail Khodorkovsky @khodorkovsky.com · 01/09/2026

The Kremlin spends billions of rubles to create the illusion of legitimacy. And still, its hand-picked candidates can't help but freeze in brain-dead silence on live TV. Natural result of picking people based on a single skill - obedience.

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Mikhail Khodorkovsky @khodorkovsky.com · 01/09/2026

Watch this: Putin’s political circus has reached its peak. The clowns don't even pretend to put on a show anymore.

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Mikhail Khodorkovsky @khodorkovsky.com · 10/08/2026

The Kremlin only tolerates opposition parties when it can control the outcome. Hundreds of people showing up at the courthouse today made sure Yabloko was not one of those cases. Too risky. That is why Putin's rubber-stamp court just removed them from the ballot.

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Mikhail Khodorkovsky @khodorkovsky.com · 04/08/2026

The belief that Putin has unlimited time — to take the Donbas, to carve off from Ukraine whatever he likes — is wrong. That time is visibly running out. And the belief inside Russia that everything can continue this way for a long time is a mistake.

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Mikhail Khodorkovsky @khodorkovsky.com · 04/08/2026

Marx called religion the opium of the people. After 33 years of leading the Russian communists, Gennady Andreyevich has decided to try the product.

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Mikhail Khodorkovsky @khodorkovsky.com · 04/08/2026

Russia's Economy Ministry has cut its 2026 growth forecast to 0.4%. In July, gasoline production covered only around 65% of seasonal demand. Putin is fighting this war on reserves — and they are running out. Learn more: blog.khodorkovsky.com/p/putin-thin...

blog.khodorkovsky.com

Putin Thinks Time Is on His Side. It Isn’t.

Sanctions alone will not end the war in Ukraine. But Russia is consuming its reserves and human capital just as Europe’s military industry begins to accelerate.

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Mikhail Khodorkovsky @khodorkovsky.com · 03/08/2026

I am one of the very few who has told Vladimir Putin to his face exactly what I think about corruption at the highest levels of government. A month later I faced criminal charges — and was locked up for more than ten years. Follow here and on Substack for more: blog.khodorkovsky.com

blog.khodorkovsky.com

How to Slay a Dragon | Mikhail Khodorkovsky | Substack

Russia, geopolitics, and the fight for what comes after Putin. Click to read How to Slay a Dragon, by Mikhail Khodorkovsky, a Substack publication with thousands of subscribers.

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Mikhail Khodorkovsky @khodorkovsky.com · 03/08/2026

Tariffs may weaken Putin over time. They will not, by themselves, stop the war. The real pressure will come from two things: 1. Sustained military support for Ukraine. 2. The widening gap between what Europe can produce and what Russia can still afford. [15/15]

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Mikhail Khodorkovsky @khodorkovsky.com · 03/08/2026

China is unlikely to increase its involvement enough to compensate fully for that shift. But this does not mean Ukraine can simply fight on until it defeats Putin outright. Ukraine faces a severe shortage of manpower — it cannot sacrifice its future indefinitely. [14/15]

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Mikhail Khodorkovsky @khodorkovsky.com · 03/08/2026

Europe spent years moving too slowly. But its defense industry is now gaining momentum. If the war continues for another year or two, the balance is likely to shift increasingly against Russia in: – ammunition – drones – intelligence capabilities [13/15]

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Mikhail Khodorkovsky @khodorkovsky.com · 03/08/2026

The more important factor is military support for Kyiv. Ukrainian and European defense production is expanding, while Russia's economic and industrial resources are being steadily depleted. [12/15]

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Mikhail Khodorkovsky @khodorkovsky.com · 03/08/2026

Sanctions can still raise costs, create shortages and accelerate Russia's technological decline. What they cannot do is switch off Putin's war machine quickly. [11/15]

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Mikhail Khodorkovsky @khodorkovsky.com · 03/08/2026

More likely, tariffs will become another subject for negotiation with China rather than a weapon used decisively enough to force it out of Russia's economic orbit. And if China is not removed from the equation, the rest of the sanctions architecture is important — but secondary. [10/15]

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Mikhail Khodorkovsky @khodorkovsky.com · 03/08/2026

New tariff powers may please the White House, because they create additional leverage. But leverage is not the same as a willingness to use it — and to risk a full economic confrontation with Beijing. [9/15]

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Mikhail Khodorkovsky @khodorkovsky.com · 03/08/2026

By comparison, the war in Ukraine is a far smaller issue for the US government. It involves significant spending and relations with European allies — but it does not determine the global balance of power the way the US–China relationship does. [8/15]

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Mikhail Khodorkovsky @khodorkovsky.com · 03/08/2026

That region is, for America, three things at once: – a vast market for its products – a crucial source of goods for its consumers – an essential supplier of raw materials [7/15]

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Mikhail Khodorkovsky @khodorkovsky.com · 03/08/2026

For Washington, the relationship with China is a strategic issue of an entirely different order. It is about which power will dominate the Asia-Pacific — a region where nearly 5 billion people live. [6/15]

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Mikhail Khodorkovsky @khodorkovsky.com · 03/08/2026

The real question is whether the US is genuinely prepared to inflict major damage on its own trade with China in order to pressure Beijing over the war in Ukraine. I have serious doubts. [5/15]

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Mikhail Khodorkovsky @khodorkovsky.com · 03/08/2026

China is by far the more important of the two. A substantial share of Putin's military capacity now depends on one thing: continued economic relations with Beijing. [4/15]

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Mikhail Khodorkovsky @khodorkovsky.com · 03/08/2026

Both are independent enough to make their own decisions rather than follow Washington's lead. Today they are Russia's principal oil customers — and vital suppliers of goods the Russian economy can no longer easily obtain elsewhere. [3/15]

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Mikhail Khodorkovsky @khodorkovsky.com · 03/08/2026

There is no sanctions mechanism that can directly stop Putin's war. Sanctions weaken the regime — but they work over years, not weeks. And their effect depends above all on what two countries decide: China and India. [2/15]

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Mikhail Khodorkovsky @khodorkovsky.com · 03/08/2026

Stop expecting Washington's tariffs to end the war in Ukraine. Western leaders must face reality: only sustained European defense production and direct military aid to Kyiv will force Putin to stop. (Read on — 🧵 1/15)

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Mikhail Khodorkovsky @khodorkovsky.com · 28/07/2026

Putin’s words here are a chilling confession of his fear of peace. Without the distraction of war, he knows society will finally wake up and ask exactly what he has done to their country.

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Mikhail Khodorkovsky @khodorkovsky.com · 21/07/2026

Ukraine is no Singapore. Its governance has real problems. But compare how each side of this war manages a crisis, and the conclusion is unavoidable: Ukraine's state outperforms Putin's by a mile. That's what skeptics of Kyiv, Putin sympathizers should be reflecting on.

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Mikhail Khodorkovsky @khodorkovsky.com · 21/07/2026

August is coming. In Russia, August has a reputation: coups, defaults, catastrophes. This year the regime enters it with a fuel crisis, a stalling front, and "elections" (special electoral operation) it fears. Keep your eyes on Moscow.

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Mikhail Khodorkovsky @khodorkovsky.com · 20/07/2026

For two decades Kremlin propaganda made Crimea sacred. Now Russians watch it become a war zone they can't visit, with problems they'd rather not see. The regime's greatest propaganda victory is turning into its most visible failure.

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Mikhail Khodorkovsky @khodorkovsky.com · 16/07/2026

Speaking openly to Putin cost me 10 years in prison. Real dissent costs a Russian businessman his freedom or his fortune. Melnichenko still has both. So what did The Economist actually publish? Join today's NEST briefing to find out: zoom.us/webinar/regi...

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