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Karl Friedhoff @kfriedhoff.bsky.social · 18h

One of these is supposed to be a top pick next year. One has nearly everyone saying he should be benched. (Numbers are from before Red River.)

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Karl Friedhoff @kfriedhoff.bsky.social · 07/04/2026

A number of assumptions in here uses to go to war. All of them wrong, as far as I can tell.

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Karl Friedhoff @kfriedhoff.bsky.social · 10/03/2026

Of course the IndyCar Freedom 250 has the worst track layout I've ever seen.

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Karl Friedhoff @kfriedhoff.bsky.social · 10/09/2025

As Lee Jae-myung nears 100 days in office, here's how he stacks up against previous presidents. 63% approval. Yoon at a similar period was at just 28%. Only region where is underwater is Daegu (36%) , and he is above water in every age cohort.

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Karl Friedhoff @kfriedhoff.bsky.social · 05/09/2025

And then there's this. I mean, come on. No mention of Trump's actions during that period.

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Karl Friedhoff @kfriedhoff.bsky.social · 28/05/2025

Lee Jae-myung is seen as a better leader on every issue in the survey, ranging from economic issues to national security. (North Korea wasn't specifically asked about.)

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Karl Friedhoff @kfriedhoff.bsky.social · 28/05/2025

We're now within the 7-day moratorium on new public opinion polls ahead of the ROK presidential election. The last weekly poll from Gallup Korea has Lee (45%) with a clear lead over Kim (36%) and Lee June-seok (10%).

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Karl Friedhoff @kfriedhoff.bsky.social · 14/05/2025

And on the US, about what is expected. Acknowledges the importance of US alliance, but suggests this has to be balanced with broader accounting of Korean interests.

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Karl Friedhoff @kfriedhoff.bsky.social · 14/05/2025

For China (and Russia), he is proposing a return to a more balanced approach to South Korea foreign policy.

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Karl Friedhoff @kfriedhoff.bsky.social · 08/05/2025

Meanwhile, here's Han DS speaking about Park Chung-hee, Korea's military dictator from 1961-1979. Yeesh.

“There are politicians and parties who talk about policies carelessly,” Han said. “They abandon national interests for the sake of votes, changing their words from one day to the next. President Park would have never allowed that. That’s the kind of leadership this country needs.”

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Karl Friedhoff @kfriedhoff.bsky.social · 08/05/2025

Apart from whatever mythical constitutional reform Han DS thinks resolves this, PPP could take steps to win--or at least be competitive--in general elections. Instead, PPP has been trounced past two times. So maybe start with that?

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Karl Friedhoff @kfriedhoff.bsky.social · 28/04/2025

South Korean men in their 20s have become increasingly conservative since 2016-ish.

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Karl Friedhoff @kfriedhoff.bsky.social · 11/04/2025

As Yoon leaves his official residence, he's seen wearing a "Make Korea Great Again" hat.

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Karl Friedhoff @kfriedhoff.bsky.social · 24/01/2025

Gallup also includes trust in institutions. Important: this is from the Jan. 7-9 survey, not most recent survey, so numbers likely shifted. Most trusted is Constitutional Court (57%). One of least trusted are Prosecutors (22%). Really hope they ask this again so we can see the shift among parties.

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Karl Friedhoff @kfriedhoff.bsky.social · 24/01/2025

When asked about trust in parties, DP (41%) is basically even with party support. PPP (31%) underperforms party support by quite a margin. So some people seem to say they support the PPP but also don't trust the party. That's.....an interesting position.

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Karl Friedhoff @kfriedhoff.bsky.social · 24/01/2025

First, support for the Democratic Party (40%) is now virtually tied with PPP (38%). Rise in support for PPP has created speculation that conservatives are gaming polls, creating conservative oversample. Not sure what I think about that, given next piece of data.

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Karl Friedhoff @kfriedhoff.bsky.social · 17/01/2025

Finally, there is falling support for Yoon's impeachment. Now down to 57%, from an initial 75%. Helps to explain Yoon's strategy to delay, delay, delay. He is hoping top line numbers will shift to majority oppose and that might influence Constitutional Court judges.

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Karl Friedhoff @kfriedhoff.bsky.social · 17/01/2025

But real reason I wanted to cover this report is Gallup Korea does something unusual. It posts data on election expectations from previous surveys. In the below it shows that the public consistently expected the Democratic Party to win the most recent (2024) National Assembly election.

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Karl Friedhoff @kfriedhoff.bsky.social · 17/01/2025

First, support for PPP has rebounded, and now stands at its highest point in quite some time (39%). I won't speculate (too much) here on reasons for this bounce, but likely a mix of factors. One that can't be ruled out is that PPP supporters are highly motivated to answer these surveys right now.

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Karl Friedhoff @kfriedhoff.bsky.social · 17/01/2025

Never attribute to sheer ineptness what can be attributed to Chinese interference. english.hani.co.kr/arti/english...

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Karl Friedhoff @kfriedhoff.bsky.social · 16/01/2025

Yoon's lawyers now say Yoon didn't do the insurrection, but the CIO & NOI heads did the insurrection. koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/news/2025-01...

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Karl Friedhoff @kfriedhoff.bsky.social · 16/01/2025

To those of you planning to do some martial law-ing, a reminder to read the documents carefully before doing the martial law. www.koreaherald.com/article/1040...

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Karl Friedhoff @kfriedhoff.bsky.social · 15/01/2025

Before arrest, Chosun reports Yoon had tea with PPP members including giving them political advice. I'm no expert of retail politics, but I'm not sure I would be taking political advice from a guy who has proven incapable at the basics of retail politics. www.chosun.com/politics/pol...

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Karl Friedhoff @kfriedhoff.bsky.social · 15/01/2025

As I get caught up on Yoon's arrest, this is striking. Saw something similar when troops assigned to take National Assembly slow-rolled it. Maybe this is from sense of duty to nation. More likely is rank and file are aware they would be prosecuted themselves. www.koreaherald.com/article/1039...

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Karl Friedhoff @kfriedhoff.bsky.social · 14/01/2025

Spare a thought for anyone trying to commute in Seoul this morning. The road where this is taking place--which Naver has helpfully marked in red--is a major artery for north-south traffic. It can be awful at the best of times.

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Karl Friedhoff @kfriedhoff.bsky.social · 20/12/2024

For the next president, Lee Jae-myung clearly the favorite with 37%. What is notable is that there is no conservative even close. Han DH and Hong JP both at 5%. Should note there are very high "No Opinion"(35%) and "None" (28%).

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Karl Friedhoff @kfriedhoff.bsky.social · 20/12/2024

Meanwhile, the PPP support seems to have bottomed out for the time being at 24%. But DP support continues to climb, with support now at 48%.

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Karl Friedhoff @kfriedhoff.bsky.social · 20/12/2024

The next question will be what is Yoon's current approval rate, and the answer is that we don't really know. They've stopped asking the question as Yoon is not currently serving as president. His numbers last week were 11/85.

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Karl Friedhoff @kfriedhoff.bsky.social · 20/12/2024

First, Yoon is now the least popular of any president at this point in his term, and it isn't particularly close. His approval for the quarter is at 18%. The next closest are Roh/Roh at 28%.

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Karl Friedhoff @kfriedhoff.bsky.social · 19/12/2024

68% of the pubic wants the Constitutional Court to reach a decision as quickly as possible. The court is going to be under increasing pressure if this starts to drag on.

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Karl Friedhoff @kfriedhoff.bsky.social · 19/12/2024

NBS is back with new polling results after a few weeks off. The numbers mostly affirm what others found in terms of approval and party support. And 78% say it was a good decision to impeach Yoon.

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Karl Friedhoff @kfriedhoff.bsky.social · 13/12/2024

Most importantly, on the eve of Park's impeachment, 81% supported impeachment--similar to the 75% that support Yoon's. Once again, a majority of conservative party supporters (61%) opposed. Yet, the more than half of her own party did vote to impeach.

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Karl Friedhoff @kfriedhoff.bsky.social · 13/12/2024

The conservative party also took a bigger hit at that time. Then called Saenuri, its support went from about 30% to 13% by the time impeachment finally arrived.

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Karl Friedhoff @kfriedhoff.bsky.social · 13/12/2024

Park's approval rates were significantly lower for a much longer period of time before her impeachment. It was at 5% for more than a month. And even 66% of her own party disapproved. Yoon is approaching that with 53% of his own party disapproving.

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Karl Friedhoff @kfriedhoff.bsky.social · 13/12/2024

In previous skeets, I noted Han Dong-hoon trashing his reputation in the process. We don't have before/after to reach that conclusion with data, but he's not doing great! Just 15% trust Han DH, the lowest of the four included. Top is Woo won-sik (NA speaker), followed by LJM, and then Han Duk-soo.

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Karl Friedhoff @kfriedhoff.bsky.social · 13/12/2024

Initial plan was for the Two Hans to run state affaris while waiting for Yoon to resign. (That was the plan, no matter how much they try to walk it back.) Korean public rejects that idea: 68% oppose. Most interesting is 20s cohort. Just 56% opposed. Not sure why it is so low. Others may have ideas.

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Karl Friedhoff @kfriedhoff.bsky.social · 13/12/2024

Now for the good stuff: 75% support impeachment, roughly in line with findings from others. But 66% of his party's supporters OPPOSE impeachment. Yet, have to keep in mind PPP support is down to its most diehard supporters. And even 27% of those support impeachment.

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Karl Friedhoff @kfriedhoff.bsky.social · 13/12/2024

This also hints at fact that when Yoon speaks of "anti-state forces" he's really talking to a small part of the oldest, most conservative part of electorate. Pluralities of the oldest Koreans still support PPP--but that is narrowing. For all other age cohorts, support is 17% or less.

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Karl Friedhoff @kfriedhoff.bsky.social · 13/12/2024

Speaking of parties, the PPP has taken some serious damage. It's support rate now down to 24%, while support for the DP has climbed to 40%. The public is quite clear on its view. Unclear if the PPP is listening.

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Karl Friedhoff @kfriedhoff.bsky.social · 13/12/2024

Importantly, approval within his own party is now under water. 38% approve of his performance, vs 53% disapprove. That's the first time we've seen this inversion. Last week was 45/40, IIRC. For every age cohort disapproval is 65% or higher. For every region, it is 76% or higher.

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Karl Friedhoff @kfriedhoff.bsky.social · 13/12/2024

Last week's survey had a "split" sample in that some of the polling took place before martial law declaration and some after. So this is firs true post-declaration survey. Yoon's numbers more in line with what I expected initially. Approval now 11%, disapproval up to 85%.

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Karl Friedhoff @kfriedhoff.bsky.social · 10/12/2024

Han DH, to a closed-door meeting of the PPP:

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Karl Friedhoff @kfriedhoff.bsky.social · 06/12/2024

There has been a shift in support for the parties. The opposition Democratic Party at 37%--up from 33--and the president's PPP down to 27% from 32.

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Karl Friedhoff @kfriedhoff.bsky.social · 06/12/2024

But he is deeply underwater in all regions, even those that are conservative strongholds. (Sorry about the graphics. They don't post nicely when they're text like this.) Highest approval rate is 21% in Daegu/Gyeongbuk. Lowest is 7% in Gwangju/Jeolla.

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Karl Friedhoff @kfriedhoff.bsky.social · 06/12/2024

In Gallup's numbers, approval of Yoon's job performance has dipped to 16%. That is lowest on record. I'm honestly surprised it isn't lower. I expected it to be around 10%.

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Karl Friedhoff @kfriedhoff.bsky.social · 06/12/2024

This throwback hitting a bit different today.

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Karl Friedhoff @kfriedhoff.bsky.social · 05/12/2024

He also has the most incredibly bad ass stamp.

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Karl Friedhoff @kfriedhoff.bsky.social · 05/12/2024

And here's a translation of the money 'graph. Absolute fire.

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Karl Friedhoff @kfriedhoff.bsky.social · 04/12/2024

Language from Yoon's impeachment bill. This is why domestic politics needs more attention in eval. of foreign policy (h/t @joelatkinson.bsky.social). Relations with Japan now radioactive. Many of us argued Yoon's approach ensured better relations would be short-lived despite importance.

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