Ken Caldeira @kencaldeira.com · 01/10/2026I have allowed the internet to damage my ability to concentrate on prose that does not constantly send dopamine into my brain. I need to rebuild my attachment to long form prose. 1111
Ken Caldeira @kencaldeira.com · 23/09/2026The underlying paper finds that unfamiliar languages sound equally pleasant to within a couple of percentage points. www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/... 020
Ken Caldeira @kencaldeira.com · 17/09/2026I of course block the sender. Here is typical of my situation. 3 in 3 hours. I have donated to candidates but never in response to an SMS solicitation. 110
Ken Caldeira @kencaldeira.com · 14/09/2026The people who placed people in these cages should be put in prison. The same goes for the people who approved construction of these cages, authorized payments, etc. The detainees were accused of civil violations only. They were not accused of any crime. Only criminals treat people this way. 284
Ken Caldeira @kencaldeira.com · 12/09/2026Kings in ancient Mesopotamia made statements to the effect that a central role of government is to protect the less powerful against abuse by the more powerful. We have lost that understanding of government. Urukagina (Uruinimgina), 2350 BCE. Ur-Nammu, 2100 BCE. Hammarubi, 1750 BCE. 12711
Ken Caldeira @kencaldeira.com · 09/09/2026California looks much better in the daytime when the solar is active. 120
Ken Caldeira @kencaldeira.com · 09/09/2026Cool map of real time carbon intensity of electricity use. (Unknown why they chose Mercator projection as the default map.) Not sure of the value added by near-real time values, but it is fun and cool. app.electricitymaps.com/map/live/fif... 11712
Ken Caldeira @kencaldeira.com · 04/09/2026Satire meets reality. www.theguardian.com/us-news/live... 370
Ken Caldeira @kencaldeira.com · 31/08/2026How much of the opposition to new large AI data center derives from insecurity about losing access to well-paying meaningful work? My understanding is that data centers have lower carbon-emissions per unit GDP than the economy as a whole. Of course, they should not use the sky as a CO2 waste dump. 1080
Ken Caldeira @kencaldeira.com · 31/08/2026If Trump really wanted to make America great again, a good place to start would have been restoring marginal income tax rates on top earners to what they were before Reagan started handing our country over to the super wealthy. www.forbes.com/sites/niallm... 1219
Ken Caldeira @kencaldeira.com · 30/08/2026When government databases are wrong, enterprises who make a business model of information provision should provide you with correct information. Donald Trump is not Humpty Dumpty. 020
Ken Caldeira @kencaldeira.com · 27/08/2026"Near-term benefits from investment in climate adaptation complement long-term economic returns from emissions reduction" ciunit.org/publications... 022
Ken Caldeira @kencaldeira.com · 25/08/2026"This paper explores how immigration policy affects residential construction and home prices. [W]e show that increased immigration enforcement reduces homebuilding and drives up new construction prices." papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.... 0104
Ken Caldeira @kencaldeira.com · 24/08/2026This heating of relatively warm air and cooling of relatively cool air creates density contrasts that create horizontal pressure gradients. These horizontal pressure gradients drive global winds. APE and APE generation decrease ~10% in a high CO2 world. (2/2) journals.ametsoc.org/view/journal... 051
Ken Caldeira @kencaldeira.com · 24/08/2026Where does the atmosphere get the potential energy available to drive winds? Condensation of water vapor above the western tropical Pacific heats relatively warm air, and radiation to space cools relatively cold air near the poles. (1/2) ciunit.org/publications... 192
Ken Caldeira @kencaldeira.com · 23/08/2026They apparently don't remember mad cow disease. Or maybe they just don't care, because they will not get their food through the same supply chain as the hoi polloi. 282
Ken Caldeira @kencaldeira.com · 22/08/2026Some positive climate news. Work that Ian McKay and I did 5 years ago is coming to fruition. We helped create contrails.org and they and others have succeeded in generating some real movement on contrail avoidance -- a major test over the North Atlantic. www.nature.com/articles/d41... 24012
Ken Caldeira @kencaldeira.com · 20/08/2026If you told someone you invented a new transportation system but it would kill more than 40,000 Americans each year, they would look at you like you were crazy. A stark example of status quo bias. Cars and guns. Automobile deaths and mass murder. It doesn't have to be this way. 0196
Ken Caldeira @kencaldeira.com · 19/08/2026We have a new web page up with links to our corpus of work. ciunit.org/publications... 056
Ken Caldeira @kencaldeira.com · 09/08/2026At first, I thought this was put out by El-Sayed to make the point that even Trump's spouse doesn't want to get close to him but El-Sayed's spouse does want to be with him. www.amazon.com/Systems-Scie... www.amazon.com/Healing-Poli... www.amazon.com/Medicare-All... 010
Ken Caldeira @kencaldeira.com · 09/08/2026The New York Times didn't even mention that Capital One Financial closed hundreds of Trump-related accounts because of evidence of money laundering. Disgusting. www.reuters.com/legal/govern... 2224
Ken Caldeira @kencaldeira.com · 08/08/2026When we lived in Livermore, CA, which has a hot sunny climate, we had dozens of pomegranates on each "tree" which we had growing together more like a row of bushes. Doesn't grow well at all on the other side of SF Bay, where it is not as hot and dry in summer. 120
Ken Caldeira @kencaldeira.com · 03/08/2026When I was a kid, they used to talk about how this is what life was like in the Soviet Union. There used to be something that people called "a right to privacy". Seems quaint and old-fashioned now. www.rwcpulse.com/redwood-city... 1254
Ken Caldeira @kencaldeira.com · 03/08/2026When resources are limited, it is likely that vaccines, etc, have higher ROI in terms of NPV of human welfare. However, it is a little like the trolly problem, where there is an intuition that we may want to limit the deaths we are responsible for more than we want to limit total deaths. 2/2 281
Ken Caldeira @kencaldeira.com · 03/08/2026Much of the motivation for reducing greenhouse gas emissions comes not from cost-benefit optimization, but from the understanding that we are doing something that harms others and that we therefore have a responsibility to stop doing that. 1/2 3519
Ken Caldeira @kencaldeira.com · 26/07/2026Does anyone have informed perspectives on this paper? Seems important if true, important to refute if false. "Our results provide the first observational evidence that low clouds have partially offset recent warming, ... " agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/... 41910
Ken Caldeira @kencaldeira.com · 24/07/2026If the main barrier to implementing good policy is not an information deficit, but rather that individual incentives are not aligned with global well-being, what are appropriate roles for academic researchers? How can information provision help to align individual incentives with global well-being? 491
Ken Caldeira @kencaldeira.com · 23/07/2026This is a little niche, but here is a chart of the ranking points of the top-ranking WTA tennis player over the past decade. 120
Ken Caldeira @kencaldeira.com · 20/07/2026Sometimes too much is made of Arrow's Impossibility Theorem. If a Condorcet (pairwise ranked choice) voting system results in a unique winner, which in practice it usually does, then all of Arrow's criteria are satisfied. It is only the tie-break procedure that violates Arrow's criteria. 1/2 172
Ken Caldeira @kencaldeira.com · 17/07/2026Are you studying effects of an AMOC slowdown, what might happen if it slows down, or what we might do about it? If so, please submit an abstract to our session at the 2026 Fall AGU Meeting in San Francisco. agu.confex.com/agu/agu26/pr... #AMOC #climate #AGU @mahendran9990.bsky.social 0108
Ken Caldeira @kencaldeira.com · 12/07/2026Regressed country-level relationship between departure in detrended GDP growth trend and departure from temperature trend. Hot, low-income, countries suffer from higher temperatures, but cool, high-income countries, seem to benefit. (1/2) 391
Ken Caldeira @kencaldeira.com · 08/07/2026Reducing (especially grazed ruminant) meat intake is a big land-use and climate win, and ultimately the key is for meat alternatives to be cheaper and taste better. But a lot of harm could be reduced by switching away from the worst offenders. interactive.carbonbrief.org/what-is-the-... 292
Ken Caldeira @kencaldeira.com · 07/07/2026A communication challenge with talking about climate adaptation is that if you talk about adaptation, people suspect you are not serious about reducing greenhouse gas emissions. It is a little like not wearing seat belts because we are afraid people will suspect us of not driving safely. 4100
Ken Caldeira @kencaldeira.com · 06/07/2026If Platner withdraws by July 13, the Maine Democratic Party can replace him on the ballot with a new candidate for the US Senate. legislature.maine.gov/statutes/21-... 4143
Ken Caldeira @kencaldeira.com · 06/07/2026Fun facts: Mean elevation of Earth's surface, including water as ocean and glacial ice, is about 244 m. (Mean elevation of Earth's surface, not including water, is about -2.4 km.) (I was doing a calculation and got the wrong answer, assuming Earth's surface was at 0 m instead of the mean value.) 292
Ken Caldeira @kencaldeira.com · 03/07/2026If Americans want a higher standard of living than in other countries, we need to be better educated, more productive, better at equitably distributing fruits of labor, and have a better government with better policies than in other countries. Mean income cannot long exceed mean value generation. 1102
Ken Caldeira @kencaldeira.com · 02/07/2026Apparently, MAGA on social media is mostly a bunch of robots, plus a few over-compensating older males who feel powerless, insecure in their manliness, left behind by economic trends. 031
Ken Caldeira @kencaldeira.com · 26/06/2026We wrote about the scale of the challenge and the need for energy R&D, and the Bush II Administration used our work to argue that we need R&D instead of deployment, rather than in addition to deployment. Some things are hard to control. www.science.org/doi/10.1126/... www.nature.com/articles/27638 3102
Ken Caldeira @kencaldeira.com · 24/06/2026How much of the $300B settlement with Iran will come back to the Trump family as kickbacks? Iran is not stupid and they know what Trump's "Art of the Deal" looks like. Question raised by @therickwilson.bsky.social. 093
Ken Caldeira @kencaldeira.com · 22/06/2026The above figure was for RCP8.5, admittedly a high temperature change scenario. Results seem fairly linear with amount of global warming across global warming scenarios. esd.copernicus.org/articles/11/... (Another oldy but goody!) 031
Ken Caldeira @kencaldeira.com · 22/06/2026If the same methods that Nordhaus used to estimate climate impact on GDP are applied instead to population density, the conclusion is that climate change could give billions motivation to migrate, with India standing out as a hot high-population density country. esd.copernicus.org/articles/11/... 185
Ken Caldeira @kencaldeira.com · 19/06/2026If anyone's interested, I wrote a blog post on how the results of the most recent Chopin competition would have differed under different voting systems. kencaldeira.com/2025/11/chop... 281
Ken Caldeira @kencaldeira.com · 19/06/2026If our CO2 emissions continue, there will be no place left where corals are surrounded by open ocean waters with the kind of chemistry that supported coral reef growth in the past. However, coral overheating is the primary proximate threat. agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.... 210
Ken Caldeira @kencaldeira.com · 18/06/2026"Combustion of available fossil fuel resources sufficient to eliminate the Antarctic Ice Sheet" by @ricarda-winkelmann.bsky.social et al. Greenhouse gas emissions have the potential to eventually increase sea level by > 50 m (>160 ft). An oldy but goody. www.science.org/doi/10.1126/... 1188
Ken Caldeira @kencaldeira.com · 18/06/2026Abstract submission guidelines are here: agu.confex.com/agu/agu26/pr... 110
Ken Caldeira @kencaldeira.com · 18/06/2026This session aims to connect the dynamics of physical systems with the dynamics of human systems. What does the risk of AMOC slowdown/shutdown mean for human beings? How large is the risk? How can we respond to this risk? agu.confex.com/agu/agu26/pr... 152
Ken Caldeira @kencaldeira.com · 18/06/2026𝐀𝐭𝐥𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐢𝐜 𝐌𝐞𝐫𝐢𝐝𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐎𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐧𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐂𝐢𝐫𝐜𝐮𝐥𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 (𝐀𝐌𝐎𝐂) 𝐒𝐥𝐨𝐰𝐝𝐨𝐰𝐧/𝐒𝐡𝐮𝐭𝐝𝐨𝐰𝐧: 𝐋𝐢𝐤𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐡𝐨𝐨𝐝, 𝐂𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐞𝐪𝐮𝐞𝐧𝐜𝐞𝐬, 𝐑𝐞𝐬𝐩𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐞 𝐎𝐩𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 Please submit an abstract to session GC016 at the AGU26 Fall Meeting. Abstracts due 5 Aug 2026. agu.confex.com/agu/agu26/pr... 12213