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kcg211.bsky.social @kcg211.bsky.social · 23m

His wording is so weird but I'm guessing he's saying to update it to Dems being slightly favored as opposed to underdogs. Because he's the last person to say Dems would be favored to start with

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kcg211.bsky.social @kcg211.bsky.social · 1h

Yup, completely agreed. Which is why I think even early votes equalling 2022 would be great news. Better than 2022 and it's a shellacking

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kcg211.bsky.social @kcg211.bsky.social · 1h

Reposting my own post. But VA has seen the ED to EV ratio between partisans increase every single election due to different reasons I fully expect the trend to continue bsky.app/profile/kcg2...

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kcg211.bsky.social @kcg211.bsky.social · 2h

Yeah, Virginia voting location opening is weird. Even last year, a "relative" GOP strength compared to 2024 was causing a lot of coping before the satellites opened and it was clear what was happening.

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kcg211.bsky.social @kcg211.bsky.social · 2h

Isn't their MI analysis completely based off the fact that younger people aren't voting much yet.

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kcg211.bsky.social @kcg211.bsky.social · 2h

As he states in the tweet, this was expected since we are in the lull period between the start of voting, and the satellite locations opening. The satellite locations are key for Dems since currently there are only central voting locations in NoVA i.e. the big cities within Virginia.

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kcg211.bsky.social @kcg211.bsky.social · 2h

This one graphic explains why polls got it so wrong last year. The ED and EV differences have evened out a lot as we get farther from the pandemic.

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kcg211.bsky.social @kcg211.bsky.social · 2h

Wow, it was further back than i thought, but could have been that I read it recently.

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kcg211.bsky.social @kcg211.bsky.social · 3h

"Party strategists claim", meanwhile NRSC and the rest of the donor class not even bothering to invest in the state. If there was an opportunity there, the money would have come in a long time ago to try and make the case at the very least.

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kcg211.bsky.social @kcg211.bsky.social · 4h

It was recent, in the last 2-3 months at most. He was genuinely shocked that Dems were paying no penalty for Covid era regulations.

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kcg211.bsky.social @kcg211.bsky.social · 4h

Kaiji Preservation Society is so damn good. I pictured the lead as a woman throughout because it just seemed to fit, only recently did I realize that gender of the lead character is never mentioned.

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kcg211.bsky.social @kcg211.bsky.social · 4h

Wasn't Lakshya recently surprised that no one cared about punishing people for Covid era things anymore? I remember an article by him recently where he expressed that shock

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kcg211.bsky.social @kcg211.bsky.social · 4h

If Bacon was running for re-election, we would have likely seen a bunch of polling there, but the moment he decided not to run, everyone just gave up on that seat.

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kcg211.bsky.social @kcg211.bsky.social · 4h

In-person on Election Day is a minority position. A lot of states, including Texas, see 80% or more of their votes banked via In-Person Early Voting before Election Day.

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kcg211.bsky.social @kcg211.bsky.social · 4h

The only real trend visible so far is that Dems are not doing mail-in voting to the same extent as prior years, and instead seem to be shifting to IPAV and IPEV. Combined, the mail plus EV is showing a clear trend as to a vastly different looking electorate to 2024 or 2022.

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kcg211.bsky.social @kcg211.bsky.social · 7h

The thing about when he tweeted this out is that it was right after the first reported "peace deal" which IIRC lasted all of one weekend. There have been like 3 other peace deals since, most of which only existed in Trump's mind.

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kcg211.bsky.social @kcg211.bsky.social · 8h

So Dems are still over performing to last year with similar turnout. That's kind of huge, with the satellites still to come

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kcg211.bsky.social @kcg211.bsky.social · 8h

Big jump. Catch-up in record keeping, or satellites opened?

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kcg211.bsky.social @kcg211.bsky.social · 18h

IIRC, Chaz is a conservative but is actually able to give unbiased perspectives. Lakshya is very liberal but has been brain poisoned by Twitter

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kcg211.bsky.social @kcg211.bsky.social · 20h

I didn't think Graham runs for another term though. Her entire campaign has felt like she really didn't think it would be this much work. It gives strong "get me out of here" energy.

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kcg211.bsky.social @kcg211.bsky.social · 20h

I feel this will end up being close. Probably in the 53-47 range or so in the end which is mental for SC.

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kcg211.bsky.social @kcg211.bsky.social · 20h

I don't think Collins wins anymore. Jackson has actually locked in with his campaign stops, ads, and debate lines. Just the crisscrossing the state alone is something previous nominees haven't done.

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kcg211.bsky.social @kcg211.bsky.social · 20h

Part of that is also that hanging the nominee in Texas out to dry will cause mass aneurysms for GOP officials.

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kcg211.bsky.social @kcg211.bsky.social · 20h

Run so many ads that people dream about his ads. Build up a huge canvassing operation, and GOTV help.

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kcg211.bsky.social @kcg211.bsky.social · 21h

She sounds really old with that shaky voice

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kcg211.bsky.social @kcg211.bsky.social · 23h

Definitely. Small example is bathroom remodels. My neighbor has been sitting on a remodel plan for over a year now because the prices pretty much doubled from initial quotes they had got.

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kcg211.bsky.social @kcg211.bsky.social · 23h

Much better than whatever the headlines would have been if Platner didn't drop out. I have a feeling we would have had weekly drops of crazy

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kcg211.bsky.social @kcg211.bsky.social · 15/10/2026

The better word would have been "wishcast"

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kcg211.bsky.social @kcg211.bsky.social · 15/10/2026

It doesn't matter tbh. He's not a Senator anymore in 3 months time

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kcg211.bsky.social @kcg211.bsky.social · 15/10/2026

It was tariffs hitting people's pockets, and ICE visibly killing people that started the turnaround. Things he campaigned on.

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kcg211.bsky.social @kcg211.bsky.social · 15/10/2026

Both Biden 2021 and Trump 2018 had started a small recovery starting in the middle of the election year. There's been no such change or recovery this year as Trump keeps doubling down on his craziness

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kcg211.bsky.social @kcg211.bsky.social · 15/10/2026

The Shapiro campaign will come down to whether "Out of step wrt Israel" supercedes "I take PA off the table"

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kcg211.bsky.social @kcg211.bsky.social · 15/10/2026

Pretty clear Dem turnout for In-Person Early and on Election Day will be huge this year. Mail will go down because people don't want to leave anything to chance and to Trump's USPS head.

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kcg211.bsky.social @kcg211.bsky.social · 15/10/2026

Gerrymandering is a great example for sure. GOP brains broke when Dems started responding to their gerrymandering efforts, they really thought after 2010 that they would keep doing it and no one would push back.

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kcg211.bsky.social @kcg211.bsky.social · 15/10/2026

I actually tried searching for that recently and the Florida dude account doesn't exist anymore. Used Internet archive and found that he was an election denier and planned to be there at Jan 6. Account was suspended around that time.

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kcg211.bsky.social @kcg211.bsky.social · 15/10/2026

Also he hates McConnell, despises him.

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kcg211.bsky.social @kcg211.bsky.social · 15/10/2026

Colorado going to see a big wave. There's a chance Boebert goes down, and CO-03 flips as well

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kcg211.bsky.social @kcg211.bsky.social · 15/10/2026

Guessing Feely isn't a good fundraiser. This seat should pretty much be an autoflip without the incumbent

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kcg211.bsky.social @kcg211.bsky.social · 15/10/2026

Her most famous break, the ACA repeal, only happened because McConnell thought he had McCain's vote locked.

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kcg211.bsky.social @kcg211.bsky.social · 15/10/2026

The thing I like about the first Beekeeper movie is that it's got 5 minutes of setup and then it's straight Statham killing people and the plot escalating to a ridiculous degree. It's a very "we know what you are here to see" movie

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kcg211.bsky.social @kcg211.bsky.social · 14/10/2026

2020 could work tbh because Trump lost the popular vote by 4.5 points. So the weaknesses come built in for that cycle. As it stands, by going with 2024, they made a big bet that none of the demos will swing. Really stupid thought process for sure. Florida did it AFTER seeing the swings.

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kcg211.bsky.social @kcg211.bsky.social · 14/10/2026

Gerrymandering to your best cycle in forever was definitely a choice. Probably gerrymandering to 2020 numbers might have been better for them

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kcg211.bsky.social @kcg211.bsky.social · 14/10/2026

Literally the ONLY reason I want the Senate to flip is because McConnell is still alive and it would be poetic justice for him to be on the other side of 2 (?) Scotus blockades

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kcg211.bsky.social @kcg211.bsky.social · 14/10/2026

Even no polling miss leads to losing the Senate. A small miss towards Dems causes results not seen in decades to happen

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kcg211.bsky.social @kcg211.bsky.social · 14/10/2026

Tiffany and his team had an entire strategy around attacking Hong for the Thanksgiving comment. They didn't have a plan B for Crowley

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