jwr99.bsky.social @jwr99.bsky.social · 29/09/2026In the FiftyPlusOne published model, these Generic Ballot polls moved Dem odds to take the senate from 71% to 74%, House odds from 98% to 99%, and median House seats from 240 to 242. 000
jwr99.bsky.social @jwr99.bsky.social · 25/09/2026Gemini tells me that almost 200 church officials, including youth pastors, were charged or convicted last year for child sexual abuse. I'm pretty sure it's worse for a girl to be abused by her youth pastor than to play against a trans girl. And far more likely to happen too. Where's the outrage? 000
jwr99.bsky.social @jwr99.bsky.social · 25/09/2026I have to say it -- when I was growing up decades ago, there were local kiddie TV shows and one was -- Flippo the clown. 000
jwr99.bsky.social @jwr99.bsky.social · 25/09/2026Possible that they're reading the news and think they can send Collins and her seniority back and leave it to states like Iowa for a D majority. 100
jwr99.bsky.social @jwr99.bsky.social · 16/09/2026He's setting up like Trump saying he told everyone that he was against the Iraq War, except that he never said it in public. Largely because he was afraid of right-wing cancel culture. 010
jwr99.bsky.social @jwr99.bsky.social · 16/09/2026I agree. The through line for most democrats of all ideological stripes is "money out of politics": "I don't take money from SuperPACs" 000
jwr99.bsky.social @jwr99.bsky.social · 16/09/2026Lots of stuff in the crosstabs, like this: www.nytimes.com/interactive/... 100
jwr99.bsky.social @jwr99.bsky.social · 16/09/2026Fact Check: True Compare Baltimore (no Nat'l Guard deployed) to DC (Nat'l guard deployed). Their homicide trends are the same, both starting to go down in 2022, and you can't tell where the Nat'l Guard was deployed to DC by looking at the graph. 000
jwr99.bsky.social @jwr99.bsky.social · 16/09/2026Biden's American Rescue Plan Act of 2021 had $350B for localities to spend as they see fit. Many invested in police. Most cities saw crime trend down starting mid-2022. Just sayin' 000
jwr99.bsky.social @jwr99.bsky.social · 16/09/2026Seems like just a few more points pushes the median to 52 Dems. 000
jwr99.bsky.social @jwr99.bsky.social · 16/09/2026No, but 51 (or 52) can stop administrative and judicial appointees. 100
jwr99.bsky.social @jwr99.bsky.social · 13/09/2026Money out of politics. Without that, nothing of these things will happen. 000
jwr99.bsky.social @jwr99.bsky.social · 12/09/2026It would take such a colossal wave that the gerrymanders turn into dummymanders. Pretty unlikely, but if it ever were to happen, it would be this election. We need federal legislation ending gerrymandering, and specifically outlawing political gerrymanders. SCOTUS said no statue prevented it. 061
jwr99.bsky.social @jwr99.bsky.social · 11/09/2026Yes, the markets are one of his last key pillars of support, even though they've underperformed vs international markets. 110
jwr99.bsky.social @jwr99.bsky.social · 11/09/2026Sand shows the difference between anti-system and moderate. His message seems to be blowing up the 2 armed-camps zero-sum vision of politics more than "moderation". 010
jwr99.bsky.social @jwr99.bsky.social · 11/09/2026For Trump's approval to go down, it doesn't mean that some random people decided to give up on him. It means that people who are giving up on him now were even more true believers than everyone who gave up on him previously. 122
jwr99.bsky.social @jwr99.bsky.social · 10/09/2026I don't know if it's an outlier, but a poll from Change Research paid by Freedom Project USA came in with her tied. Also, Jolly up by 3. I don't know who these are, but we've gone a long time without much polling (summer, Labor Day). It's possible polling is just catching up to what people think. 000
jwr99.bsky.social @jwr99.bsky.social · 10/09/2026According to a report by Premier Christian News, almost 200 Christian leaders were accused of child abuse in the first 10 months of 2025 alone. I'm pretty sure it's worse for a girl to be abused by their youth pastor than to compete against a trans girl. But guess who the GOP focuses its energy on 000
jwr99.bsky.social @jwr99.bsky.social · 10/09/2026He'll give us $5,000 that we'll all have to pay back with interest. "I'll pay you $5,000! Just give me the credentials to your checking account." 041
jwr99.bsky.social @jwr99.bsky.social · 10/09/2026Musk said DOGE could find $2T in savings. That's 30% of the budget. That means that if he took out the "fraud, waste, and abuse", then we would get the same level of services for the existing taxes. Which Republicans have said for decades, and continue to say today (see Vance's crusade on fraud). 000
jwr99.bsky.social @jwr99.bsky.social · 10/09/2026He'll give us $5,000 that we'll all have to pay back with interest. "I'll pay you $5,000! Just give me the credentials to your checking account." 100
jwr99.bsky.social @jwr99.bsky.social · 10/09/2026I'm thinking a staffer went, "Oh look, I found an arena that isn't booked on this Wed/Thurs!". And the reason it wasn't booked is because no one wanted to program against the first 2 games of the NFL season. 040
jwr99.bsky.social @jwr99.bsky.social · 10/09/2026He'll give us $5,000 that we'll all have to pay back with interest. "I'll pay you $5,000! Just give me the credentials to your checking account." 000
jwr99.bsky.social @jwr99.bsky.social · 10/09/2026I think he'd be more likely to got Indy like Sinema. He's still votes Dem on stuff like healthcare, but he tends to act like the old rules apply and might vote for marginal on positions that require senate confirmation. Although I don't know the rules well enough if Dems chair all the committees. 000
jwr99.bsky.social @jwr99.bsky.social · 10/09/2026In fairness, they say the "Legacy" model is polls + fundamentals while the "Complete" model is "plus Kalshi prediction market odds and expert ratings". It's likely Sabato and Cook taking the "Complete" model's odds for Dems down. 000
jwr99.bsky.social @jwr99.bsky.social · 09/09/2026It's worse for the bottom 50%. Their after-tax inflation-adjusted wages are down since Trump took office: 001
jwr99.bsky.social @jwr99.bsky.social · 08/09/2026Joe Biden got a LOT done in his first 2 years. His biggest failure is not thumping over it. "My record speaks for itself" is ignorant BS. You have to tell people what you got done, and how it will impact their lives. Over and over again. 000
jwr99.bsky.social @jwr99.bsky.social · 08/09/2026For the ballroom, he bought marble from Italy and steel from Luxemburg. 001
jwr99.bsky.social @jwr99.bsky.social · 05/09/2026In G. Elliott Morris's model, every race in the Safe R, Likely R, Lean R, Tossup, and Lean D categories voted for Trump, most significantly. In the Likely D category, only 4 did not go for Trump 2 years ago. 000
jwr99.bsky.social @jwr99.bsky.social · 05/09/2026G. Elliott Morris's model has Riley's chances at 99%. 000
jwr99.bsky.social @jwr99.bsky.social · 04/09/2026I love how Trump calls data centers "plants", as if they're factories that employ tons of workers to build things. In case anyone doesn't know, they only hire a few IT folks, janitors, and security guards. 000
jwr99.bsky.social @jwr99.bsky.social · 03/09/2026Some form of ranked choice voting is a better solution than a jungle primary. It gives third parties a voice while not paving the way for minority rule. The Alaska system is better; jungle primary takes it down to 4, then RCV. 000
jwr99.bsky.social @jwr99.bsky.social · 03/09/2026It will go to his presidential "library". Maintaining that Qatari plane will cost $$$$$. 010
jwr99.bsky.social @jwr99.bsky.social · 03/09/2026He didn't just make it up -- he proudly admitted it on national TV: "If I have to create stories so that the American media actually pays attention to the suffering of the American people, then that’s what I’m going to do” _After_ his staff confirmed with locals that, of course, it was all BS. 000
jwr99.bsky.social @jwr99.bsky.social · 02/09/2026Mike Johnson, do you stand with Trump whisperer Laura Loomer's racist diabribes against black women? 000
jwr99.bsky.social @jwr99.bsky.social · 01/09/2026When that first came out, the car dealer told me it's because that's how race cars were started and that's why people wanted it -- because they thought it was cool. 000
jwr99.bsky.social @jwr99.bsky.social · 01/09/2026That sure looks like a strongly worded letter. Her superpower. 000
jwr99.bsky.social @jwr99.bsky.social · 01/09/2026In fairness, he could plunge the nation and the world into a new global financial crisis to get his lower interest rates. 010
jwr99.bsky.social @jwr99.bsky.social · 30/08/2026Cox started out by being as reasonable a Republican you could expect in Utah. As Lt. Gov., he followed the science as the leader of the COVID fight and teared up when talking about trans kids, "these kids are just trying to stay alive". Something happened. Probably vainly preserving power. 000
jwr99.bsky.social @jwr99.bsky.social · 27/08/2026I'm telling you, this is going to his museum. Bribe Force One won't maintain itself, and it won't be cheap. 000
jwr99.bsky.social @jwr99.bsky.social · 26/08/2026How many children were molested by youth pastors? Gemini: "abuse-tracking monitors recorded nearly 200 individual Christian leaders—including pastors, youth group workers, and Christian school staff—who were publicly accused or convicted of child abuse or related misconduct in the U.S. during 2025" 000
