Junkbondinvestor @junkbondinvest.bsky.social · 04/08/2025Universities: "We won't capitulate to political pressure!" *Federal funding stops* Universities: "Actually, let's talk settlement terms" 000
Junkbondinvestor @junkbondinvest.bsky.social · 04/08/2025Brooklyn Mirage renovation: Planned reopening becomes bankruptcy filing. Construction cost overruns meet EDM economics 100
Junkbondinvestor @junkbondinvest.bsky.social · 04/08/2025Madison Realty CEO on PC evolution in CRE lending: - Pre-GFC: Banks did 70-75% LTV - Post-regulation: Banks limited to 50-55% - Today: Non-banks fill the gap at higher leverage Regulatory arbitrage at its finest 120
Junkbondinvestor @junkbondinvest.bsky.social · 04/08/2025BDCs sorted by dividend yield 18% at the high end, 6% at the low end The market's way of telling you which ones are in trouble Source: Raymond James 010
Junkbondinvestor @junkbondinvest.bsky.social · 02/08/2025You weren’t the lender. You weren’t the sponsor. You were the advisor. All fees. All good. 030
Junkbondinvestor @junkbondinvest.bsky.social · 31/07/2025Sponsor reading a text from the relationship lender asking if they’re still “partners.” 010
Junkbondinvestor @junkbondinvest.bsky.social · 31/07/2025Secondaries managers raising $81 billion in six months, beating most full years Peak alternative investing: The exit strategy needs its own funding boom 031
Junkbondinvestor @junkbondinvest.bsky.social · 31/07/2025Vista saving $200 million by abandoning private credit for BSL Innovation: Rediscovering traditional banking 000
Junkbondinvestor @junkbondinvest.bsky.social · 30/07/2025Spent $4k on travel to confirm management still lying 070
Junkbondinvestor @junkbondinvest.bsky.social · 30/07/20252006: 100 unicorns, minimal valuation 2025: 2,000+ unicorns, $4 trillion value Maximum value, minimum liquidity. 240
Junkbondinvestor @junkbondinvest.bsky.social · 30/07/2025Calpers: "We have very strong conviction in private equity" Private Equity: *hasn't exited a deal in 18 months* Calpers: "That's why we call it conviction" 110
Junkbondinvestor @junkbondinvest.bsky.social · 29/07/2025Observation: 96% of large European companies are private Apollo conclusion: "Private credit opportunity" Source: Apollo 230
Junkbondinvestor @junkbondinvest.bsky.social · 29/07/2025*JPMORGAN NEARS DEAL TO TAKE OVER APPLE'S CREDIT CARD: WSJ Goldman Sachs consumer banking strategy: Phase 1: Launch with great fanfare Phase 2: ??? Phase 3: Call JPMorgan $JPM $GS 010
Junkbondinvestor @junkbondinvest.bsky.social · 29/07/2025PE bankruptcy statistics: All bankruptcies: 11% PE-owned $1B+ bankruptcies: 54% PE-owned Math: Go big or go home, preferably both 120
Junkbondinvestor @junkbondinvest.bsky.social · 29/07/2025Private credit showing divergent performance by borrower size: - Smaller companies: defaults increasing - Larger companies: defaults declining sharply - Overall market: trending down but driven by mega-deal performance Source: Proskauer 100
Junkbondinvestor @junkbondinvest.bsky.social · 29/07/20253 investments for every exit is the kind of ratio that makes LPs start asking uncomfortable questions about liquidity... Source: PitchBook 100
Junkbondinvestor @junkbondinvest.bsky.social · 28/07/2025Core middle market: 85% recoveries Upper middle market: 72% recoveries I'm sure the smaller deals just happen to be better credits... 020
Junkbondinvestor @junkbondinvest.bsky.social · 25/07/2025Me at 2pm after ordering extra everything at Chipotle 030
Junkbondinvestor @junkbondinvest.bsky.social · 25/07/2025Sponsor and lender after spending 12 minutes touring the warehouse before approving 8x leverage 062
Junkbondinvestor @junkbondinvest.bsky.social · 25/07/2025Current state of the lev loan market: Most volume is repricings, supply is negative, and almost everything’s trading above par The great compression continues 020
Junkbondinvestor @junkbondinvest.bsky.social · 25/07/2025Great, more PE/PC in the dentistry space. Now in the UK. Enjoy those unnecessary fillings! 040
Junkbondinvestor @junkbondinvest.bsky.social · 25/07/2025Private Credit: soon coming to a farm near you! 020
Junkbondinvestor @junkbondinvest.bsky.social · 23/07/2025HY PM debating to overweight BBs at record-tight spreads or reach for yield in dog-shit CCCs: 010
Junkbondinvestor @junkbondinvest.bsky.social · 23/07/2025Want to know how hot the HY market is? $24B+ in junk bond supply this month Busiest July since 2021 The issuance machine is back $HYG $JNK 041
Junkbondinvestor @junkbondinvest.bsky.social · 23/07/2025Glendon seeing distressed opportunities because PE can't exit during bull market Sometimes the best of times highlight the worst problems 010
Junkbondinvestor @junkbondinvest.bsky.social · 23/07/2025Anthelion using large language models to identify "attractive middle market loans" 100% believable. CLO credit analysis nearly 100% automatable. 000
Junkbondinvestor @junkbondinvest.bsky.social · 23/07/2025Private equity in dentistry: 161 deals in 2024, more than any other healthcare sector This is why these PE-backed dentists are always pushing for new procedures... 130
Junkbondinvestor @junkbondinvest.bsky.social · 22/07/2025Middle-tier PE firms struggling to “differentiate themselves”… Being in the middle means being invisible 010
Junkbondinvestor @junkbondinvest.bsky.social · 22/07/2025Brightline missing ridership projections by 53% while planning Tampa expansion Peak transportation optimism: Double down on the failed model 110
Junkbondinvestor @junkbondinvest.bsky.social · 22/07/2025Direct lender hearing the sponsor he "supported through the tough times" is refi'ing him out with a cheaper BSL 010
Junkbondinvestor @junkbondinvest.bsky.social · 22/07/2025Kohl's is a real estate company pretending to be a retailer but bondholders trading at 56¢ already know this Billions in unencumbered assets mean someone will get paid when the story breaks. The only question: who collects, and how much? $KSS 110
Junkbondinvestor @junkbondinvest.bsky.social · 21/07/2025Apollo promising “increased secondary market liquidity” for illiquid private credit The most optimistic interpretation of blockchain ever 000
Junkbondinvestor @junkbondinvest.bsky.social · 21/07/2025EM borrowers: “Dollar down 8%, time to issue euros” Currency markets: “What happens when the dollar bounces?” EM borrowers: “We’ll diversify back to dollars” 000
Junkbondinvestor @junkbondinvest.bsky.social · 18/07/2025Objectivity is inversely correlated with AUM 020
Junkbondinvestor @junkbondinvest.bsky.social · 17/07/2025Explaining to Congress why a 9x unitranche is ‘responsible lending.’ @SenWarren 032
Junkbondinvestor @junkbondinvest.bsky.social · 17/07/2025The new hottest exit opp just dropped: not exiting at all. The best exit is sometimes staying in the same building. 130
Junkbondinvestor @junkbondinvest.bsky.social · 17/07/2025Finastra swapping $5.3B private credit for syndicated debt. Amazing what happens when borrowers discover price competition still works. 130
Junkbondinvestor @junkbondinvest.bsky.social · 16/07/2025Apollo: “The AI bubble is bigger than the IT bubble. Here’s a chart proving it” Market: “So... sell?” Apollo: “We didn’t say that” 040
Junkbondinvestor @junkbondinvest.bsky.social · 16/07/2025Just offloaded some PIK-toggle unis to a grandma in Ohio… She’s very excited about the “guaranteed income stream” 030
Junkbondinvestor @junkbondinvest.bsky.social · 16/07/20252015: “Let’s merge Kraft and Heinz for synergies” 2025: “Let’s split Kraft and Heinz for focus” The merger-to-spinoff cycle remains undefeated $KHC 130
Junkbondinvestor @junkbondinvest.bsky.social · 16/07/2025They're calling PC in retirement accounts "exciting" now... Wait until retirees learn what "PIK toggle" means during the next credit cycle 011
Junkbondinvestor @junkbondinvest.bsky.social · 16/07/2025Direct lender realizing their 9x-levered illiquid pref is now sitting in a janitor’s 401k. 010
Junkbondinvestor @junkbondinvest.bsky.social · 15/07/2025CalPERS buying Yale secondaries at 90 cents and immediately finding $100M in hidden value (Circle) Ocassionally, pension funds are the smart money Source: Semafor 101
Junkbondinvestor @junkbondinvest.bsky.social · 15/07/2025BlackRock: "Private assets will enhance retirement returns" Retiree: "By how much?" BlackRock: "Up to 50 basis points" Retiree: "And the fee increase?" BlackRock: "Let's focus on the opportunity" 151
Junkbondinvestor @junkbondinvest.bsky.social · 15/07/2025Love how private credit's CRE strategy is "we'll lend what banks won't at ratios banks won't use" 140
Junkbondinvestor @junkbondinvest.bsky.social · 15/07/2025Retail should be able to access junk bonds directly... away with this 144A nonsense! Make #shitco debt accessible to all! 020
Junkbondinvestor @junkbondinvest.bsky.social · 14/07/2025Tech companies: "We're building AI to help humanity" Pentagon: "Here's $200M each" Tech companies: "We meant help American humanity specifically" 020
Junkbondinvestor @junkbondinvest.bsky.social · 14/07/2025Special sits funds now buying performing debt instead of distressed The actual special situation is now avoiding special situations entirely… 030
Junkbondinvestor @junkbondinvest.bsky.social · 14/07/2025Dimon warns about private credit risk while JPMorgan underwrites 9x leverage deals. Do as I say, not as I lend. 000