Sign in

Junkbondinvestor

@junkbondinvest.bsky.social
197 followers 36 following 507 posts

Credit analyst. Focus on high yield bonds, leveraged loans, private credit, distressed debt, special situations. www.junkbondinvestor.com

PostsRepliesMedia
Junkbondinvestor @junkbondinvest.bsky.social · 04/08/2025
Universities: "We won't capitulate to political pressure!" *Federal funding stops* Universities: "Actually, let's talk settlement terms"
000
Junkbondinvestor @junkbondinvest.bsky.social · 04/08/2025
Brooklyn Mirage renovation: Planned reopening becomes bankruptcy filing. Construction cost overruns meet EDM economics
100
Junkbondinvestor @junkbondinvest.bsky.social · 04/08/2025
Madison Realty CEO on PC evolution in CRE lending: - Pre-GFC: Banks did 70-75% LTV - Post-regulation: Banks limited to 50-55% - Today: Non-banks fill the gap at higher leverage Regulatory arbitrage at its finest
120
Junkbondinvestor @junkbondinvest.bsky.social · 04/08/2025
BDCs sorted by dividend yield 18% at the high end, 6% at the low end The market's way of telling you which ones are in trouble Source: Raymond James
010
Junkbondinvestor @junkbondinvest.bsky.social · 02/08/2025
You weren’t the lender. You weren’t the sponsor. You were the advisor. All fees. All good.
030
Junkbondinvestor @junkbondinvest.bsky.social · 31/07/2025
Sponsor reading a text from the relationship lender asking if they’re still “partners.”
010
Junkbondinvestor @junkbondinvest.bsky.social · 31/07/2025
Secondaries managers raising $81 billion in six months, beating most full years Peak alternative investing: The exit strategy needs its own funding boom
031
Junkbondinvestor @junkbondinvest.bsky.social · 31/07/2025
Vista saving $200 million by abandoning private credit for BSL Innovation: Rediscovering traditional banking
000
Junkbondinvestor @junkbondinvest.bsky.social · 30/07/2025
Spent $4k on travel to confirm management still lying
070
Junkbondinvestor @junkbondinvest.bsky.social · 30/07/2025
2006: 100 unicorns, minimal valuation 2025: 2,000+ unicorns, $4 trillion value Maximum value, minimum liquidity.
240
Junkbondinvestor @junkbondinvest.bsky.social · 30/07/2025
Private credit’s reach has no limits
232
Junkbondinvestor @junkbondinvest.bsky.social · 30/07/2025
Calpers: "We have very strong conviction in private equity" Private Equity: *hasn't exited a deal in 18 months* Calpers: "That's why we call it conviction"
110
Junkbondinvestor @junkbondinvest.bsky.social · 29/07/2025
Observation: 96% of large European companies are private Apollo conclusion: "Private credit opportunity" Source: Apollo
230
Junkbondinvestor @junkbondinvest.bsky.social · 29/07/2025
*JPMORGAN NEARS DEAL TO TAKE OVER APPLE'S CREDIT CARD: WSJ Goldman Sachs consumer banking strategy: Phase 1: Launch with great fanfare Phase 2: ??? Phase 3: Call JPMorgan $JPM $GS
010
Junkbondinvestor @junkbondinvest.bsky.social · 29/07/2025
PE bankruptcy statistics: All bankruptcies: 11% PE-owned $1B+ bankruptcies: 54% PE-owned Math: Go big or go home, preferably both
120
Junkbondinvestor @junkbondinvest.bsky.social · 29/07/2025
Private credit showing divergent performance by borrower size: - Smaller companies: defaults increasing - Larger companies: defaults declining sharply - Overall market: trending down but driven by mega-deal performance Source: Proskauer
100
Junkbondinvestor @junkbondinvest.bsky.social · 29/07/2025
3 investments for every exit is the kind of ratio that makes LPs start asking uncomfortable questions about liquidity... Source: PitchBook
100
Junkbondinvestor @junkbondinvest.bsky.social · 28/07/2025
Core middle market: 85% recoveries Upper middle market: 72% recoveries I'm sure the smaller deals just happen to be better credits...
020
Junkbondinvestor @junkbondinvest.bsky.social · 25/07/2025
Me at 2pm after ordering extra everything at Chipotle
030
Junkbondinvestor @junkbondinvest.bsky.social · 25/07/2025
Sponsor and lender after spending 12 minutes touring the warehouse before approving 8x leverage
062
Junkbondinvestor @junkbondinvest.bsky.social · 25/07/2025
Current state of the lev loan market: Most volume is repricings, supply is negative, and almost everything’s trading above par The great compression continues
020
Junkbondinvestor @junkbondinvest.bsky.social · 25/07/2025
Great, more PE/PC in the dentistry space. Now in the UK. Enjoy those unnecessary fillings!
040
Junkbondinvestor @junkbondinvest.bsky.social · 25/07/2025
Private Credit: soon coming to a farm near you!
020
Junkbondinvestor @junkbondinvest.bsky.social · 23/07/2025
HY PM debating to overweight BBs at record-tight spreads or reach for yield in dog-shit CCCs:
010
Junkbondinvestor @junkbondinvest.bsky.social · 23/07/2025
Want to know how hot the HY market is? $24B+ in junk bond supply this month Busiest July since 2021 The issuance machine is back $HYG $JNK
041
Junkbondinvestor @junkbondinvest.bsky.social · 23/07/2025
Glendon seeing distressed opportunities because PE can't exit during bull market Sometimes the best of times highlight the worst problems
010
Junkbondinvestor @junkbondinvest.bsky.social · 23/07/2025
Anthelion using large language models to identify "attractive middle market loans" 100% believable. CLO credit analysis nearly 100% automatable.
000
Junkbondinvestor @junkbondinvest.bsky.social · 23/07/2025
Private equity in dentistry: 161 deals in 2024, more than any other healthcare sector This is why these PE-backed dentists are always pushing for new procedures...
130
Junkbondinvestor @junkbondinvest.bsky.social · 22/07/2025
Middle-tier PE firms struggling to “differentiate themselves”… Being in the middle means being invisible
010
Junkbondinvestor @junkbondinvest.bsky.social · 22/07/2025
Brightline missing ridership projections by 53% while planning Tampa expansion Peak transportation optimism: Double down on the failed model
110
Junkbondinvestor @junkbondinvest.bsky.social · 22/07/2025
Direct lender hearing the sponsor he "supported through the tough times" is refi'ing him out with a cheaper BSL
010
Junkbondinvestor @junkbondinvest.bsky.social · 22/07/2025
Kohl's is a real estate company pretending to be a retailer but bondholders trading at 56¢ already know this Billions in unencumbered assets mean someone will get paid when the story breaks. The only question: who collects, and how much? $KSS
110
Junkbondinvestor @junkbondinvest.bsky.social · 21/07/2025
Apollo promising “increased secondary market liquidity” for illiquid private credit The most optimistic interpretation of blockchain ever
000
Junkbondinvestor @junkbondinvest.bsky.social · 21/07/2025
EM borrowers: “Dollar down 8%, time to issue euros” Currency markets: “What happens when the dollar bounces?” EM borrowers: “We’ll diversify back to dollars”
000
Junkbondinvestor @junkbondinvest.bsky.social · 18/07/2025
Objectivity is inversely correlated with AUM
020
Junkbondinvestor @junkbondinvest.bsky.social · 17/07/2025
Explaining to Congress why a 9x unitranche is ‘responsible lending.’ @SenWarren
032
Junkbondinvestor @junkbondinvest.bsky.social · 17/07/2025
The new hottest exit opp just dropped: not exiting at all. The best exit is sometimes staying in the same building.
130
Junkbondinvestor @junkbondinvest.bsky.social · 17/07/2025
Finastra swapping $5.3B private credit for syndicated debt. Amazing what happens when borrowers discover price competition still works.
130
Junkbondinvestor @junkbondinvest.bsky.social · 16/07/2025
Apollo: “The AI bubble is bigger than the IT bubble. Here’s a chart proving it” Market: “So... sell?” Apollo: “We didn’t say that”
040
Junkbondinvestor @junkbondinvest.bsky.social · 16/07/2025
Just offloaded some PIK-toggle unis to a grandma in Ohio… She’s very excited about the “guaranteed income stream”
030
Junkbondinvestor @junkbondinvest.bsky.social · 16/07/2025
2015: “Let’s merge Kraft and Heinz for synergies” 2025: “Let’s split Kraft and Heinz for focus” The merger-to-spinoff cycle remains undefeated $KHC
130
Junkbondinvestor @junkbondinvest.bsky.social · 16/07/2025
They're calling PC in retirement accounts "exciting" now... Wait until retirees learn what "PIK toggle" means during the next credit cycle
011
Junkbondinvestor @junkbondinvest.bsky.social · 16/07/2025
Direct lender realizing their 9x-levered illiquid pref is now sitting in a janitor’s 401k.
010
Junkbondinvestor @junkbondinvest.bsky.social · 15/07/2025
CalPERS buying Yale secondaries at 90 cents and immediately finding $100M in hidden value (Circle) Ocassionally, pension funds are the smart money Source: Semafor
101
Junkbondinvestor @junkbondinvest.bsky.social · 15/07/2025
BlackRock: "Private assets will enhance retirement returns" Retiree: "By how much?" BlackRock: "Up to 50 basis points" Retiree: "And the fee increase?" BlackRock: "Let's focus on the opportunity"
151
Junkbondinvestor @junkbondinvest.bsky.social · 15/07/2025
Love how private credit's CRE strategy is "we'll lend what banks won't at ratios banks won't use"
140
Junkbondinvestor @junkbondinvest.bsky.social · 15/07/2025
Retail should be able to access junk bonds directly... away with this 144A nonsense! Make #shitco debt accessible to all!
020
Junkbondinvestor @junkbondinvest.bsky.social · 14/07/2025
Tech companies: "We're building AI to help humanity" Pentagon: "Here's $200M each" Tech companies: "We meant help American humanity specifically"
020
Junkbondinvestor @junkbondinvest.bsky.social · 14/07/2025
Special sits funds now buying performing debt instead of distressed The actual special situation is now avoiding special situations entirely…
030
Junkbondinvestor @junkbondinvest.bsky.social · 14/07/2025
Dimon warns about private credit risk while JPMorgan underwrites 9x leverage deals. Do as I say, not as I lend.
000