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Joseph Cotterill

@jsphctrl.ft.com
8.8K followers 237 following 1.4K posts

Emerging Markets correspondent at the Financial Times; sovereign debt thinkfluencer; I like comics

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Joseph Cotterill @jsphctrl.ft.com · 28/09/2026
South Africa's central bank governor on how the Great Global Bond Sell-Off™ hasn't affected South Africa or other EMs much yet. (Yet.) In part because many were already under the gun in fiscal and monetary terms for years, and had reformed a bit accordingly. www.resbank.co.za/en/home/publ...
Excerpt from a speech given by South African Reserve Bank Governor Lesetja Kganyago today:
South Africa’s better macro prospects have been important in shielding us from the 2026 global bond repricing. Because our country risk premium has fallen, our longer-term borrowing costs are not rising in line with rich country benchmarks. In fact, yields have been quite contained this year, at around 9% at the longer end of the curve. This is roughly where we were at the end of 2025, and well below earlier levels. By comparison, the US 30-year yield is at its highest since 2007 and Japan’s is at its highest since 1996. We are also seeing that the rand is holding up well, with unusually low volatility.
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Joseph Cotterill @jsphctrl.ft.com · 10/09/2026
Senegal’s total return swap situation continues to go well.
Front page headline of Les Echos, a Senegalese newspaper:

DÉGRADATIONS DE LA NOTE SOUVERAINE DU SÉNÉGAL
LES EFFETS TERRIBLES SUR LES EMPRUNTS TRS
• Une clause, selon le Financial Times, fixe une note minimale de CCC+ chez S&P ou Caa1 chez Moody's
P4
& First Abu Dhabi Bank peut réclamer le paiement des 300 millions d'euros, dans... deux (02) jours si...
• Africa Finance Corporation peut aussi exiger le remboursement de ses 105 millions d'euros en cas de...
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Joseph Cotterill @jsphctrl.ft.com · 20/08/2026
Iran's stock market is up close to 30% in dollar terms over the past month (chart via Amtelon Capital). Iranian stocks trade on about 3.5 times forward earnings - one sign of an economy that is already very isolated. But hard to crush from outside.
Line chart of Iran's benchmark Tedpix index in US dollar terms from February to August. It climbed from 220 to 340 from Feb to June in a ceasefire rally, ebbed to 250 or so in July as talks broke down, but is back to about 320.
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Joseph Cotterill @jsphctrl.ft.com · 12/08/2026
The partial eclipse as seen through crescent shadows at Telegraph Hill, London, this evening.
Two pieces of A4,paper held up in front of foliage as eclipse sunlight casts crescent shadows through the leaves
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Joseph Cotterill @jsphctrl.ft.com · 09/08/2026
Once again proving my theory about these things, ‘Spider-Man: Brand New Day’ works so well because it’s a comic-book film, not a superhero film, and is very good at achieving the comic-bookness, right down to representing individual ‘panels’. (And absurd melodrama) Sadly no J Jonah Jameson though.
Sequence of panels from an old Lee & Ditko Spider-Man comic, featuring JJJ.
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Joseph Cotterill @jsphctrl.ft.com · 29/07/2026
SocGen: Assets under management in those now notorious SK Hynix and Samsung single-stock leveraged ETFs have dropped back to May levels, when the mania in Korea for these products really kicked off. Points to the scale of recent leveraged selling of these stocks (which may or may not ebb now)
Societe Generale chart of single stock leveraged ETF AUM in products tracking SK Hynix and Samsung, in US dollar billions. SK Hynix peaked near $25bn in May-June, now under $10bn, Samsung near $10bn / under $5bn.
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Joseph Cotterill @jsphctrl.ft.com · 28/07/2026
Btw, for those of us who know the South African restaurant sector well, interesting cameo in that piece.
Natasha Sideris, the founder and CEO of Tashas Group, which has 16 restaurants in the UAE, says she cried when she was forced to ask her staff to take up to 30 per cent salary cuts. Business at the group’s flagship restaurant in Dubai’s financial centre fell by as much as 80 per cent, but started to rebound in June.

Menus were slimmed down as there were shortages of some items, including Scottish salmon and lamb cutlets, and costs rose, she says.

“It was worse than Covid, because you knew what your plan was,” Sideris says. “During Covid you had to close during a certain period, which made it easier to negotiate with landlords. Limping along is much worse.”
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Joseph Cotterill @jsphctrl.ft.com · 21/07/2026
I finished Sandman Mystery Theatre, a great 90s comic - a great romance comic! - that is up there with the very best homages to 1930s noir/pulp. So here’s a version of Wesley Dodds, DC’s original Sandman.
Digital sketch of DC’s Sandman, emerging from a cloud of his sleeping gas. Gas mask, trilby hat, gloves and cape over a suit are all present and correct.The underlying pencil and inks that were scanned for the digital colour sketch.
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Joseph Cotterill @jsphctrl.ft.com · 17/07/2026
Barclays ponders whether India's diaspora aren't buying the foreign currency deposits being promoted by the central bank to prop up the rupee (like in 2013, www.ft.com/content/2002...) because they've been too busy profiting from chipmaker stocks (until recently anyway):
At a time when overseas equity markets have surged, especially chip stocks (notwithstanding recent volatility), many NRIs may view these deposits as a less attractive option, albeit one with far less volatility.  Moreover, while the Indian diaspora is much wealthier than it was in 2013, the wealth is increasingly invested across a range of assets and is potentially less liquid than in 2013.  At a time of increased geopolitical uncertainty, any liquidity may come at a premium.
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Joseph Cotterill @jsphctrl.ft.com · 11/07/2026
Nice 18th-century political argument, unfortunately Thomas Jefferson has already depicted you as the sickly weak Tory and himself as the chad Whig
Many like Adam Smith believed that all governments in the world could be reduced to just two-monarchies and republics-and that these were rooted in two basic types of personalities: monarchists, who loved peace and order, and republicans, who loved liberty and independence. Late in his life Jefferson likewise thought that all people by nature could be divided into just two parties. They existed in all countries, he said, whether called tories and whigs, aristocrats and democrats, right and left, ultras and radicals, or serviles and liberals. Jefferson left no doubt where his own sympathies lay: "the sickly, weakly, timid man, fears the people, and is a Tory by nature. The healthy, strong and bold, cherishes them, is formed a Whig by nature."
Gordon S. Wood
The Radicalism of the American Revolution: Pulitzer Prize
Winner
#kindlequotes
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Joseph Cotterill @jsphctrl.ft.com · 10/07/2026
Many of the future founding fathers in Pre-Revolutionary America were what we’d call ‘patronage politicians’ today (RIP Gordon S. Wood)
Patronage was most evident in politics, and there its use was instinctive. When Benjamin Franklin was made deputy postmaster general of North America in 1753, wasted no time in appointing all his friends and relatives to positions under his control. His son became postmaster in Philadelphia. One brother was made postmaster in Boston; when the brother died, Franklin gave the office to his brother's stepson. He made his nephew postmaster in New Haven, appointed the son of a friend postmaster in Charleston, and made another friend in New York controller. A year or so later he promoted his son to be controller and moved the husband of his wife's niece into the vacated Philadelphia position. When this office again became open, he brought another brother down from Newport to fill it.
Gordon S. Wood
The Radicalism of the American Revolution: Pulitzer Prize
Winner
#kindlequotesProbably no one in late-eighteenth-century America used his property and patronage to create political dependencies more shamelessly than John Hancock.
Hancock patronized everyone. He made work for people. He erected homes that he did not need. He built ships that he sold at a loss. He sponsored any and every young man who importuned him. He opened trade shops and staffed them. He purchased a concert hall for public use. He entertained lavishly and habitually treated the Boston populace to wine.
John Adams recalled that "not less than a thousand families were, every day in the year, dependent on Mr. Hancock for their daily bread."
Gordon S. Wood
The Radicalism of the American Revolution: Pulitzer Prize
Winner
#kindlequotes
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Joseph Cotterill @jsphctrl.ft.com · 09/07/2026
Pre-revolutionary America was an export-reliant frontier market with financial inclusion problems. This meant patronage politicians (some remembered as ‘founding fathers’) could control access to credit on terms that were concessional but could display their influence. (RIP Gordon S. Wood)
Since many colonists did not yet believe that their inland trade was very important, they did not believe that paper money (which made such inland trade possible) was very important. And because the paper currency the colonists issued usually could be exchanged at the rate of 133 to 100 pounds sterling (but sometimes through overprinting of the paper the rate could skyrocket to 160 or 180 to 100 pounds sterling), established merchants who imported from abroad and had to pay their bills in sterling were generally anxious to limit the amounts of paper currency in circulation. Since paper money was therefore not readily available, colonists who needed money for their businesses usually had to rely on loans from local moneyed men, thus increasing their sense of personal clientage and dependency.
Gordon S. Wood
The Radicalism of the American Revolution: Pulitzer Prize
Winner
#kindlequotesThe probate records of wealthy colonists show large proportions of their estates out on loan. All sorts of persons lent money, said John Adams: merchants, professionals, widows, but especially "Men of fortune, who live upon their income." In 1776 Cadwallader Colden was the creditor of seventy-three different people. Even many of the great planters of the South earned more from such presumably ancillary activities as lending money than they did from selling their staple crops. Charles Carroll of Annapolis had f 24,000 on loan to his neighbors. A large landowner in the Shenandoah Valley, James Patton, had 90 percent of his total estate in the form of bonds, bills, and promissory notes due him. When merchants and wealthy artisans wanted to establish their status unequivocally as leisured gentlemen, they withdrew from their businesses and, apart from investing in land, lent out their wealth at interest.
Gordon S. Wood
The Radicalism of the American Revolution: Pulitzer Prize
Winner
#kindlequotes
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Joseph Cotterill @jsphctrl.ft.com · 04/07/2026
Independence Day. One of many amazing things about the American Revolution is how many declarations of/for independence had already been made, coming from all directions, before July 4, 1776. Freedom is a pure idea.
Congress had made the loudest noise about independence in July 1776, but before it gave voice to its desires some ninety declarations of independence were issued in one form or another from outside Philadelphia between April and July. Nine states acted, several through instructions to delegates; Rhode Island, always different, passed a legislative act; others chose preambles to their constitutions. At least eight counties sent instructions to their provincial conventions or legislatures. Three grand juries drafted presentments for independence. A half dozen or more semi-private or private groups—New York mechanics, for example, and militia battalions in Pennsylvania-declared themselves for independence.
More than fifty towns wrote declarations.
Robert Middlekauff
The Glorious Cause: The American Revolution, 1763-1789
(Oxford History of the United States Book 3)
#kindlequotes
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Joseph Cotterill @jsphctrl.ft.com · 29/06/2026
It says a lot about the American Revolution that they considered setting up those commissar-style folks who shoot the deserters fleeing to the rear, but apparently thought better of it most of the time
Washington repeated the threat just before the Battle of Brooklyn later that year, though he seems not to have posted men behind the lines to carry it out. Daniel Morgan urged Nathanael Greene to place sharpshooters behind the militia, and Greene may have done so at Guilford Court House. No one thought that an entire army could be held in place against its will, and these commands to shoot soldiers who retired without orders were never widely issued.
Robert Middlekauff
The Glorious Cause: The American Revolution, 1763-1789
(Oxford History of the United States Book 3)
#kindlequotes
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Joseph Cotterill @jsphctrl.ft.com · 29/06/2026
America: one of those revolutions where the freedom fighters brought their ferocious ideological fervour for liberty to bear on the battlefield, specifically in the form of liberty to run away from that battlefield. (This was quite a logical response to being in a C18th army tbf.)
Paradoxically, of all the Americans who fought, the militiamen best exemplified in themselves and in their behavior the ideals and purposes of the Revolution. They had enjoyed independence, or at least personal liberty, long before it was proclaimed in the Declaration. They instinctively felt their equality with others and in many places insisted upon demonstrating it by choosing their own officers. Their sense of their liberty permitted, even compelled, them to serve only for short enlistments, to leave camp when they liked, to scorn the orders of others—and especially those orders to fight when they preferred to flee.
Robert Middlekauff
The Glorious Cause: The American Revolution, 1763-1789
(Oxford History of the United States Book 3)
#kindlequotes
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Joseph Cotterill @jsphctrl.ft.com · 25/06/2026
American hyperbole and/or brainrot about British civilisational decline goes back a long way. Not so much about the food or air conditioning then though
By 1769 a Boston correspondent of Wilkes commented on "that torrent of corruption which like a general flood, has deluged all' to the eternal disgrace of the British nation," and suggested that the reason the "arbitrary and despotic" English government had
"extended their ravages to America" was because they had found the British Isles too restricted an area for the full gratification of their "incessant cravings of luxury, extravagance and dissipation." In 1770 Eliot wrote Hollis: "The Lord have mercy on Great Britain! for among the great, I fear, there is scarce a virtuous character to be found. I should be glad to hope it was better among the other ranks, but the people could not be sold if they did not first sell themselves."
Bernard Bailyn
The Ideological Origins of the American Revolution: Fiftieth
Anniversary Edition
#kindlequotesEven Franklin, his old caution and careful optimism gone, agreed, writing in 1775 to his one-time political ally Joseph Galloway, that he would himself, reluctantly, have to oppose Galloway's plan for reconciliation. ... when I consider the extreme corruption prevalent among all orders of men in this old rotten state, and the glorious public virtue so predominant in our rising country, I cannot but apprehend more mischief than benefit from a closer union. I fear they will drag us after them in all the plundering wars which their desperate circumstances, injustice, and rapacity may prompt them to undertake; and their wide-wasting prodigality and profusion is a gulf that will swallow up every aid we may distress ourselves to afford them.
Bernard Bailyn
The Ideological Origins of the American Revolution: Fiftieth
Anniversary Edition
#kindlequotes
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Joseph Cotterill @jsphctrl.ft.com · 18/06/2026
Taiwan's central bank is now expecting GDP growth of 9.4% this year. You don't see trillion-dollar economies do that very often. (Other market forecasts below) www.cbc.gov.tw/en/cp-448-19...
Table of Taiwan's Economic Growth Forecasts by Major Institutions for 2026. Forecast average is 8.8%. Taiwan's central bank is 9.45%. Taiwanese institutions forecast between 7-10%, Wall Street banks such as Citi, Goldman, and JPMorgan 8-10%.
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Joseph Cotterill @jsphctrl.ft.com · 11/06/2026
People say British politicians don't get bond markets but this one absolutely gets the concept of palming off creditors with vaguely defined value recovery instruments. www.ft.com/content/fc90...
On Thursday Burnham rowed back from the idea of a direct payout, hours after his spokesperson said he was “committed to looking at” the case for compensation.

“He accepts the final decision has been made in relation to financial compensation but has indicated an openness to considering similar schemes on the Greater Manchester model,” the spokesperson said on Thursday.

The Greater Manchester model is a reference to non-financial compensation. Cut-price travel tickets could be considered, Burnham’s team added, pointing out that as mayor he has “supported Waspi women in the city-region with early access to concessionary travel, providing some recompense to them within affordability limits”.
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Joseph Cotterill @jsphctrl.ft.com · 11/06/2026
AI ate emerging markets, cont'd: “TSMC, Samsung Electronics, and SK Hynix explain nearly 60% of APAC equity returns year-to-date... 75% of earnings per share growth this year is expected to come from Korea, and 50% in 2027.” (SocGen)
Societe Generale pie chart showing Korea is contributing 75% of EPS growth this. Taiwan 12%, China 9%, India 3%, ASEAN 1%
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Joseph Cotterill @jsphctrl.ft.com · 10/06/2026
This one's also fun (hint 1: neighbours, hint 2: watch when the purple line goes dotted or estimated)
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Joseph Cotterill @jsphctrl.ft.com · 09/06/2026
🤘 www.theodramatist.com/early-modern...
The Quaker
c. 1650–1700 · England · inner light
Barclay, the Apology
You threw over priest, liturgy, and sacrament for a room of people waiting in silence for the Light. You think God speaks now, directly, to anyone who will be still and listen, with no bishop, book, or king in between.

Representative figuresGeorge Fox, Margaret Fell, James Nayler
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Joseph Cotterill @jsphctrl.ft.com · 01/06/2026
Wonder Woman, digital sketch in Procreate. Always like the idea of Diana of Themyscira in the comics as a living link to an archaic heroic past, so went with a concept to play on that.
Colour sketch in digital pastels/chalks of an Amazon warrior as depicted on a cracked, ancient fragment of Archaic Greek pottery, as if itself depicted in an illustrated art book. (Figure 14, Unidentified Amazon, kylix fragment, etc…) From the star-spangled details of the warrior’s clothing, you can tell it’s DC’s Wonder Woman.
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Joseph Cotterill @jsphctrl.ft.com · 26/05/2026
Interesting how much the early history of British America (specifically the Puritans of the Massachusetts Bay Colony here) was basically about keeping out people from Yorkshire.
Since Wheelwright's condemnation, the elders, fearful of the insidious spread of Familist or antinomian views, had started the process of barring from immigration into the colony all who "might be dangerous to the commonwealth," especially since, Winthrop wrote, "it was very probable" that some particularly dangerous people would soon be arriving from what was considered to be the true pit of English Familism, the notorious village of Grindleton, in Yorkshire.
Bernard Bailyn
The Barbarous Years: The Peopling of British North America:
The Conflict of Civilizations, 1600-1675
#kindlequotes
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Joseph Cotterill @jsphctrl.ft.com · 24/05/2026
And some Fantastic foes (Mole-Man, Doctor Doom, and Annihilus). Aiming for old-school bright Marvel colours and a hazy comic-book look.
Colour sketch of three figures (L-R): Mole Man, grasping his staff thingie he always has; Doctor Doom, gesticulating in shiny armour and hood; Annihilus in his space age armour.
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Joseph Cotterill @jsphctrl.ft.com · 24/05/2026
The Fantastic Four, after more playing around in Procreate.
Colour sketch of Marvel’s Fantastic Four. Mister Fantastic and the Thing are in the foreground - Reed stretches his arms out. The Human Torch roars past in a jet of flame behind them. Behind Johnny, the Invisible Woman reaches up with a force field emanating from a raised hand. She’s translucent. In the background is a ‘four’ shape left behind by the Torch’s trail.
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Joseph Cotterill @jsphctrl.ft.com · 19/05/2026
Dog-Friendly: Grogu showing feels like the setup for a Far Side cartoon, somehow.
Picturehouse cinema listings for Dog Friendly: Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu and Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu
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Joseph Cotterill @jsphctrl.ft.com · 16/05/2026
‘Andor’ sketches while playing with Procreate: Luthen and Saw Gerrera.
Colour full-body portrait of Luthen. Rain splashes on his bare head, dark overcoat and military-style boots.Colour full-body portrait of Saw Gerrera in his trademark power armour? flight suit? which is scuffed and glinting at the same time.
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Joseph Cotterill @jsphctrl.ft.com · 08/05/2026
BofA: growth rates in global hyperscaler bond sales have caught up with the telecom debt boom of the early 2000s. “Hyperscalers today are exhibiting some of the fastest credit market growth rates ever seen”:
BoFA line chart (x axis: 1996-2026, y axis: relative growth rates rebalanced to 100, going up to 240), starting point each time is three years before peak. Five squiggly lines that shoot up then halt: telcos '99, real estate 05-08, energy 13 to 17, real estate again 19 to 22. Hyperscalers 24 to 26. It's especially vertical.
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Joseph Cotterill @jsphctrl.ft.com · 05/05/2026
Stalin deposed by film star. www.ft.com/content/8656...
In Tamil Nadu, India’s southernmost state and home to Apple’s iPhone production in the country, Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam, a new regional party led by former actor C Joseph Vijay, toppled the ruling party of veteran chief minister MK Stalin. The BJP is a minority partner in an alliance with another regional party, which finished third.
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Joseph Cotterill @jsphctrl.ft.com · 03/05/2026
John Donne would have liked kaiju.
God's agents, the angels, are almost as impressive, as Donne imagines them, in their gift for demolition: "They are Creatures, that have not so much of Body as flesh is, as froth is, as a vapor is, as a sigh is, and yet with a touch they shall molder a rocke into lesse Atomes, then the sand that it stands upon; and a milstone into smaller flower, then it grinds! 79 The utility of producing flour which is actually ground-up millstone is not, of course, something we are expected to enquire into. Donne's angels are performing a pure feat of strength, as pointless, in its way, as tearing up telephone directories, only much more colossal.
John Carey
John Donne: Life, Mind and Art
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Joseph Cotterill @jsphctrl.ft.com · 01/05/2026
Further to this point on the UAE's two key banks. They have been growing internationally - but not very transparently! - adventurous, such as FAB's 'total return swap' lending in Africa. Are they commercial banks or foreign policy tools? Maybe a judgement call the FOMC would rather not make.
Moreover, the Emirates banking sector looks to be a family-owned business. Emirati royals serve as the chairmen of the country’s largest banks, and the royals’ sovereign wealth funds serve as the largest shareholders of the country’s largest banks: First Abu Dhabi Bank and Emirates NBD.

There is thus an obvious risk that an unconditional swap line would end up funding a backdoor bailout of the investment vehicles of the Emirati royals. This is a financial and political risk the Federal Reserve cannot afford to take.
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Joseph Cotterill @jsphctrl.ft.com · 27/04/2026
The UAE recall of its deposit from Pakistan also shows a weakness in IMF bailouts. The fund gets ‘financing assurances’ from big creditors (the ‘promise’ in the second paragraph). But, like the UAE, creditors can backtrack and no one can do much about it. www.ft.com/content/9907...
Since late last year, Pakistan had been seeking to secure an agreement to roll over at least $2bn of the Emirati loans for two years, but Abu Dhabi rattled Islamabad by moving to monthly extensions in January, according to two people familiar with the matter.
The UAE's decision to seek immediate repayment this month surprised the finance ministry in Islamabad, as well as the IMF, according to people familiar with the matter. Abu Dhabi had promised the fund that it would not seek repayment until the end of Pakistan's programme in 2027, a precondition for approving the bailout.
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Joseph Cotterill @jsphctrl.ft.com · 14/04/2026
Must-read on China Shock 2, including that it is, to a significant extent, rooted in a local government finances problem. “Officials are scared of missing their GDP targets. Nobody is scared of overcapacity”: www.ft.com/content/7d51...
The way the Chinese system works, local officials have every incentive to protect their companies.

Value added tax generates nearly 40 per cent of China’s tax revenue, and the central government splits the receipts with the localities where products are made, giving them a direct stake in keeping factories running.

Adding local production capacity also creates the growth that officials are largely judged on, and any large-scale lay-off could threaten social stability, Beijing’s overriding priority.

“Officials are scared of missing their GDP targets. Nobody is scared of overcapacity,” says another founder, who asks to remain unnamed. “As long as you’re manufacturing, there’s VAT revenue. Whether you sell [a product] or make a profit, that doesn’t really affect them.”
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Joseph Cotterill @jsphctrl.ft.com · 09/04/2026
Within you there are two eras. www.ft.com/content/5269...
FT Correction:

Researcher Brené Brown was misquoted in an interview published on April 6. She described herself as “solidly in my fuck it era” rather than “solidly in my fucking era”.
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Joseph Cotterill @jsphctrl.ft.com · 09/04/2026
Emerging markets equities are (were) Asia (and particularly Asia tech) dominated, Iran shock edition. Of $70bn in portfolio outflows from EMs last month tracked by the IIF, over $53bn of the drop was EM Asia equities. EM debt flows holding up surprisingly well, maybe.
IIF bar and line chart of non-resident portfolio flows to EM, split into China debt, China equity, EM equity ex China, EM debt ex China, and (line) total. The total drops from $100bn net inflows in January to $20bn in February, to minus $70bn in March.
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Joseph Cotterill @jsphctrl.ft.com · 09/04/2026
US threats to the papacy: could be a lot worse, especially after the Maduro abduction precedent…
The German occupation posed an immediate threat to the Papacy. A precedent had been set during the Napoleonic Wars when French troops had taken Pope Pius VI prisoner in February 1798 and transported him to France where he died.
The current Pope, Pius XII, feared that the Germans would invade the Vatican, and much of the Vatican's response to events during the German occupation was tempered by the priority to preserve the liberty of the Pope. The fears were not entirely groundless: Hitler and Wolff did seriously discuss plans to occupy the Vatican and to kidnap the Pope.
Halik Kochanski
Resistance: The Underground War in Europe, 1939-1945
#kindlequotes
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Joseph Cotterill @jsphctrl.ft.com · 08/04/2026
Amtelon Capital on how Iran’s stock market might reopen post-ceasefire, which also illustrates that even being highly isolated, Iran’s stock market is relatively large in frontier market terms. It’s about a third the size of Vietnam’s, on a very low valuation.
Valuations and reopening scenarios
On the last trading day before the war, total equity market capitalisation had fallen to below $100 billion, while the median forward P/E for the top 100 companies stood at 2.8x. By the time the stock exchange reopens, the market could react in two very different ways: a sell-off driven by retail withdrawals, similar to what followed the 12-day war in June last year, or a strong rebound accompanied by an extended period of limit-up sessions, as seen during previous bull market rallies in Iran.
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Joseph Cotterill @jsphctrl.ft.com · 08/04/2026
Hungary could be in the euro in a decade if Tisza wins this weekend, and the Maastricht criteria shouldn't be too difficult, BofA reckons:
BofA box chart: 'ERM in 2030-31, EUR in 2034 likely earliest timeline'
'Potential roadmap for Hungary's EUR adoption, based on experience of other CEE countries'
1 Parliamentary elections April 2026
2 EUR officially in government's strategy Fall 2026
3 Parliamentary elections April 2030
4 ERM II Entry 4Q 2030 1H 2031
5 Pre-EUR Convergence Report 2Q 2033
6 EUR Adoption Jan 2034
7 Parliamentary elections April 2034
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Joseph Cotterill @jsphctrl.ft.com · 30/03/2026
I was in Paris this weekend, and alongside ‘The Lady and the Unicorn’ the Musée de Cluny just opened a wider exhibition on the history of unicorn art. Which included this tantalising glimpse of how Albrecht Dürer might have approached the My Little Pony franchise.
Durer’s 1516 etching of The Abduction on a Unicorn, which depicts a man abducting a woman on a muscular, terrifying unicorn against a savage stormy sky.
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Joseph Cotterill @jsphctrl.ft.com · 24/03/2026
Speaking of total return swaps, excellent French punnery by this Senegalese newspaper's headline writer today.
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Joseph Cotterill @jsphctrl.ft.com · 19/03/2026
Tripwire forces work. www.ft.com/content/e078...
Denmark and several other European countries including France, Germany and the Nordics sent troops to Greenland in January under cover of a planned military exercise, which officials in Copenhagen said had notified to the US Defence Department.
But the real reason, according to the DR report, was to prepare for a possible US attack and to ensure that any takeover of Greenland would have to be hostile.
"The French were incredibly helpful," a second European official said. "They understood straight away that we needed a plan."
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Joseph Cotterill @jsphctrl.ft.com · 19/03/2026
Deleted this because as George notes, it is still a few dollars off 2022! (Management did not zoom in on the sguiggle properly, apologies)
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Joseph Cotterill @jsphctrl.ft.com · 19/03/2026
www.ft.com/content/869f...
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Joseph Cotterill @jsphctrl.ft.com · 06/03/2026
www.ft.com/content/e5cb...
Allister Heath fake headline
If we surrender to the Telegraph's latest valuation of 575 million quid, we will lose our country forever
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Joseph Cotterill @jsphctrl.ft.com · 04/03/2026
Israel’s war aims over Iran now encompass dismantling “the regime’s military infrastructure, including the IRGC.” Not sure of the underlying theory of change for Iran’s politics there. www.ft.com/content/dd07...
Analysts said it was not clear that destroying the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, a 180,000-strong force, was possible. And Israeli officials have not said exactly how they plan to lay the groundwork for the regime's overthrow, or what might come after that, though they have suggested covert operations may be involved.
Summarising the Israeli government's position, Citrinowicz said: "If we can have a coup, great. If we can have people on the streets, great. If we can have a civil war, great.
Israel couldn't care less about the future...
[or] the stability of Iran.
"That is a point of difference between us and the US. I think [Washington is] are more concerned about nation-building and threats to their regional partners," he added.
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Joseph Cotterill @jsphctrl.ft.com · 03/03/2026
How's liquidity in EM in this crisis? Egyptian T-bills (with a nominal 1-year yield of ~23%) have been a popular emerging market debt trade exposed to the region. Offshore investors cut exposure by a bit before the war, but didn't (or couldn't?) rush to the exits just yet. www.ft.com/content/25d6...
In the past year, hedge funds had piled back into the local debt markets of Egypt and Turkey in particular, after these countries offered double-digit interest rates to support weakened currencies. As conflict over Iran grew closer in recent weeks, some investors exited these trades, with foreign holdings of Egyptian debt falling by $2bn to $30bn according to Citigroup.

But others bought protection to stay in the trade on the bet that the conflict would not last. “In the last few days, there had been hedges put on in Turkey, Egypt and some of the more crowded positions in local markets,” including through credit default swaps and forward bets on currencies, one investor said.

There was no sign yet of “serious outflows” from EM trades as a whole, they added. “Things haven’t reached that panic event. It’s not that kind of liquidity event where those lines are cut and there’s a flight to safe havens. That is the really painful event for emerging markets historically, and we’re just not there yet.”
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Joseph Cotterill @jsphctrl.ft.com · 03/03/2026
It is a war aim for Iran to make the Gulf states appear uninvestable. So far that isn’t close to happening in bond markets. www.ft.com/content/02eb...
The regime insider said the retaliation, including against targets such as Dubai hotels,
"makes any location hosting Americans unsafe and no one will want to stay there"
He added that Iran's Gulf oil-rich neighbours would all now "face heightened investment
risk"
"Investors will tell them: you are close to Iran, and at any moment a missile could land in the middle of your country," the insider said.
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Joseph Cotterill @jsphctrl.ft.com · 01/03/2026
Reading up on the English Civil Wars to prepare for a reading project on the American Revolution. Sadly, 1630s England is devoid of relevance to any of our contemporary concerns!
A number of monarchs had raised revenue using the prerogative by imposing duties on overseas trade (impositions), or by creating monopolies over particular trades and raising fines for breaches of the monopolies. To the extent that these were measures for the regulation of trade these were clearly matters for the prerogative. To the extent that they were revenue devices they threatened the role of Parliament in authorizing taxation, and the common law in protecting the property of the subject. There was then a crucial ambiguity as to whether the impositions should be seen as illegal taxes, or revenues arising from the legitimate use of the prerogative to regulate international trade-an area beyond the common law.
Michael Braddick
God's Fury, England's Fire: A New History of the English Civil Wars
#kindlequotes
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Joseph Cotterill @jsphctrl.ft.com · 18/02/2026
You'll be 'omazed' how a little bit of charity and gambling regulation arbitrage can help move stale housing inventory with high operating costs... www.ft.com/content/eac4...
That extensive advertising is possible because Omaze is regulated differently from most charity lotteries, which are restricted in the value of the prizes they can offer and the extent of proceeds they can reinvest in operations, for example on marketing.
In the UK, so-called free prize draws such as Omaze can operate for commercial gain without a gambling licence so long as they offer a free entry route alongside their paid ones.

Like most of its peers, Omaze accepts these free entries by post. They are limited to one entry per postcard or envelope and cannot be hand-delivered. Factoring in postage, customers ultimately pay more for each “free” entry than they would to buy an entry online.
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Joseph Cotterill @jsphctrl.ft.com · 15/02/2026
Finished ‘Albion’s Seed’ and one of my main abiding thoughts has been that William Penn really needs a modern biopic. Just a completely stranger than fiction, and somehow very modern, life as a celebrity dissident.
While suffering for his faith, Penn was treated with deference by his persecutors, and affection by many of his jailors. He maintained warm personal relations with Charles II and the future James II. From his cell he courted and won the hand of Gulielma Springett, a high-born lady who was celebrated for Quaker piety and for her blonde beauty (Penn's rivals included London's leading Restoration rakes). Her many connections gave Penn much influence in English society and helped him secure the charter of Pennsylvania. After her death, Penn married Hannah Callowhill, a rich Bristol heiress who brought him an income of £ 3000 a year—enough to keep his colony afloat.
David Hackett Fischer
Albion's Seed: Four British Folkways in America (America: a cultural history Book 1)
#kindlequotes
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