JPWeiland @jpweiland.bsky.social · 18/09/2026No significant effects yet. But it does appear to be growing and it has ACE2 binding to burn... 000
JPWeiland @jpweiland.bsky.social · 08/09/2026Regional trends are shown here from Biobot. I think we are about a week from the peak, as trends typically reverse a few weeks after schools return. We will see if that pattern from previous years holds up on this late wave. Not shown: much bigger 2024 summer wave reaching 1000. 1456
JPWeiland @jpweiland.bsky.social · 08/09/2026Sept 5th Update: As predicted in June, a relatively modest late summer wave is occurring in the West and South, less than half numbers last summer. Texas about half of last year. Midwest and NE are still at minimal levels. 🔸️180k infections/day 🔸️1 in 350 currently infectious 🔸️W+S about 3x MW+NE 68619
JPWeiland @jpweiland.bsky.social · 01/08/2026Numbers are still below what used to be the baseline. It's too early to say if PJ.2.1 will have any significant impact to levels. 0162
JPWeiland @jpweiland.bsky.social · 01/08/2026PJ.2.1 is a brand new, highly mutated variant (from a BA.2.86 Pirola base) It's looking to me like it may have some speed 👀 Will continue to monitor this one. Most interesting variant in a good while. 58617
JPWeiland @jpweiland.bsky.social · 17/07/2026July 17th Update: A notable uptick is visible on WWScan, with numbers doubling in the past month. We are still only about half or our previous lull levels, but we should continue to see increases. This wave should be limited in potential. 🔸~88,000 new inf/day 🔸~1 in 750 currently infectious 310120
JPWeiland @jpweiland.bsky.social · 17/07/2026Haha yes thats population density, not active fires. Here is the active fire map 171
JPWeiland @jpweiland.bsky.social · 17/07/2026There is a big issue with scale. The area that has burned in just the last few days is bigger than the state of Connecticut. Just to suppress the front, you'd need on the order of 20,000 helicopter drops in a day. In remote locations I don't think that's something reasonably achievable... 041
JPWeiland @jpweiland.bsky.social · 17/07/2026People think the Canada fires have an easy fix (they don't!). Canada has 10x more forest per capita than the US, and it is far, far more remote, most hundreds of miles from civilization. Significant drying caused by increasing temps and lower humidity from climate change are driving these fires. 911617
JPWeiland @jpweiland.bsky.social · 27/06/2026🔸️Wastewater levels on both WWScan and Biobot remain at rock bottom levels. 5-8x lower than previous lulls and 50-80x lower than our last big waves in 2024. 🔸️<40k infections/day 🔸️We may still see a small late summer wave for the West and South. 912321
JPWeiland @jpweiland.bsky.social · 02/06/2026You and I both know it won't last 😃 but let's enjoy the super low numbers for now! 0130
JPWeiland @jpweiland.bsky.social · 02/06/2026📉 Wastewater numbers are currently incredibly low, about *7 times* lower than the spring lulls in years past. We're approaching flu-in-the-summer style prevalence. 919635
JPWeiland @jpweiland.bsky.social · 23/05/2026It's difficult to nail down because we still appear to be in case discovery mode, but if we take the death trend from Ebola at face value, the doubling time would be ~7 days. That would be quite fast. I really worry for the people in this region. 27518
JPWeiland @jpweiland.bsky.social · 23/05/2026Modeling the Bundibugyo Ebola outbreak: If we assume an R0 of 3 and a generation interval of 12 days, that would put patient 0 back around the beginning of March. 2.5 months ago. We need much better surveillance than this. 17014
JPWeiland @jpweiland.bsky.social · 12/05/2026There was some literature that suggested Omicron infections lead to more susceptability to additonal Omicron infections. Here is one example, and there were others. www.thelancet.com/journals/ecl.... The Al Aly study also proposed an exponential-looking risk of death which has not panned out.thelancet.comEarly Omicron infection is associated with increased reinfection risk in older adults in long-term care and retirement facilitiesCounterintuitively, SARS-CoV-2 Omicron infection was associated with increased risk of Omicron reinfection in residents of long-term care and retirement homes. Less robust humoral hybrid immune respon... 180
JPWeiland @jpweiland.bsky.social · 12/05/2026I've just seen a lot of people posting about that over time. To be clear, I don't discount the idea that there could be increased susceptibility to other infections after a Covid infection... especially for those with long covid, many of whom show significant immune disregulation. 1100
JPWeiland @jpweiland.bsky.social · 12/05/2026Serial PCR testing along with documenting Ct over time also provides critical learning on symptoms timing vs viral load. We need better clarity on when during the disease progression a patient becomes infectious. 0707
JPWeiland @jpweiland.bsky.social · 12/05/2026I don't think sending cruise ship contacts on international commercial flights without PPE or serial testing, nor mandating quarantine afterwards is smart public health. These are the kinds of decisions that get you into trouble, even if this outbreak stays relatively small. 313130
JPWeiland @jpweiland.bsky.social · 12/05/2026Even though I don't think Hantavirus will become the next pandemic, public health needs to step up immediately to control the outbreak. ▶️Thorough contact tracing ▶️Quarantine of contacts & cruise passengers ▶️Serial PCR testing contacts ▶️Full PPE (respirators, coveralls) for caregivers 513530
JPWeiland @jpweiland.bsky.social · 11/05/2026However new infections can still lead go long covid and other health problems. The bright side is there is 4x less covid around than in 2022. 1967
JPWeiland @jpweiland.bsky.social · 11/05/2026You can't take a single superspreader situation and say that can't be higher than R0. This is a misunderstanding of the study. 000
JPWeiland @jpweiland.bsky.social · 11/05/2026I think we can finally put to bed the hypothesis that population wide immune damage from Covid would lead to accelerating Covid cases and severity. Wastewater derived cases ⬇️ 75% Hospitalizations ⬇️ nearly 90% 1010521
JPWeiland @jpweiland.bsky.social · 06/05/2026I'm not very concerned at the moment about a wider risk of Hantavirus outbreak from the cruise ship. Cruise ships can double or triple R0 vs its native R0. A virus with a 0.7 R0 can look like a 2.0 on a cruise ship. Very unlikely this becomes a larger threat. 4726
JPWeiland @jpweiland.bsky.social · 01/05/2026(Also, the price of energy and fertilizer will trickle down to increased prices of many other items, including food. +$651 is just the beginning) 0353
JPWeiland @jpweiland.bsky.social · 01/05/2026The price of a dozen of eggs decreased $3.65 since 2024, and the average American consumes 23 dozen eggs per year. Eggs cost/cap/yr= -$76/yr In that same period, gasoline has increased $1.60/gal, and per capita consumption was 407 gal/yr Gas cost/cap/yr= +$651/yr Nearly 9x the impact of eggs 1617
JPWeiland @jpweiland.bsky.social · 25/04/2026April 24th Update: We are at the lowest transmission levels in almost 5 years, 40% lower than our recent spring lows. This remarkable lull should last 6+more weeks. Estimates: 🔸90,000 new infections/day 🔸~1 in 750 currently reasonably infectious (5 day window) 721249
JPWeiland @jpweiland.bsky.social · 13/04/2026One can hope! We could have been preparing with energy independence for years, and we have overall failed to meet the moment. 171
JPWeiland @jpweiland.bsky.social · 13/04/2026It'll be different, that's for sure. And some places affected more than others. I do wonder if some countries will have WFH recommendations or mandates to reduce demand on consumer gasoline 131
JPWeiland @jpweiland.bsky.social · 13/04/2026Effectively, to absorb this near 20% oil supply shock, the world has to shut down use for either making things and/or travel as much as we did in 2020. Hopefully this is resolved soon, as we will not like what is about to come. 27110
JPWeiland @jpweiland.bsky.social · 13/04/2026I'm having major February 2020 vibes, where a major impact is coming in the near future, and again it feels like markets and most people don't see coming. This time it's not a virus, but a supply shock. 15-20% of the oil production is offline, the same amount as during global lockdown. 412837
JPWeiland @jpweiland.bsky.social · 12/04/2026Here's their data. In no way is that medium. They've called much higher values than this "low". 040
JPWeiland @jpweiland.bsky.social · 12/04/2026Pay no attention to those stated levels. They unfortunately have a very poor algorithm for their high/med/low callouts. They'll say high when it's low and low when it's high. I've contacted them multiple times to address this but they have not had any success yet. 140
JPWeiland @jpweiland.bsky.social · 11/04/2026Here is WWScan's national trend data since end of 2022. Prior to that they had very limited coverage outside of California. 1413
JPWeiland @jpweiland.bsky.social · 11/04/2026April 10th Update: Both NWSS and WWScan data sets suggest the lowest transmission levels in more than 4 years. BA.3.2 (Cicada) modestly impacting primarily the under 18 group. Estimates: 🔸118,000 new infections/day 🔸~1 in 550 currently reasonably infectious (5 day window) 411123
JPWeiland @jpweiland.bsky.social · 10/04/2026It's absolutely nuts that the CDC still has BA.3.2 (Cicada) under 1%, buried in the "All Other" category. This was modeled all the way to mid April. ➡️ The reality is BA.3.2 was likely ~10% over 4 weeks and is ~20% today in the US... 2000% higher than what they modeled. 27317
JPWeiland @jpweiland.bsky.social · 07/04/2026Honest question, why hasn't the market crashed yet? This feels like Feb 2020, when we saw what was coming, but no one flinched. And this is a supply shock, not a demand shock! 4555
JPWeiland @jpweiland.bsky.social · 07/04/2026In hindsight, the name "Cicada" fits like a glove for BA.3.2. All cicadas are ages 0-17, and that is precisely the most susceptable age group for BA.3.2. 0635
JPWeiland @jpweiland.bsky.social · 01/04/2026There are 10,000x MORE stars in the universe than grains of sand *on all the beaches and deserts on earth* In that context, our radio signals first sent out 100 years ago have not even reached the next grain of sand. The rest of the universe has no idea we're here. 3385
JPWeiland @jpweiland.bsky.social · 01/04/2026Anyone with even a high school background in biology would know "cross breeding" with aliens is an insane impossibility. If aliens were on earth (they're not), their genetic code language and cellular mechanisms would be different than earth life. You'd have better luck crossing humans with a radish 4313
JPWeiland @jpweiland.bsky.social · 30/03/2026↘️ @kkjetelina.bsky.social 's YLE has a wonderful analysis here, calling out the continuously receding peaks in hospitalizations over the past 4 years. We see the same trends in wastewater. The question that plagues WW is whether the signal/infection has decreased over the past few years. 36012
JPWeiland @jpweiland.bsky.social · 30/03/2026BA.3.2 continues to increase in prevalence, primarily in the 0-18 age group. This will probably not affect wider trends in the short term, but we will continue to monitor it. Below are the regional trends from NWSS: 1488
JPWeiland @jpweiland.bsky.social · 30/03/2026March 29th Update: Nearing record lows in transmission since Omicron in late 2021. Midwest and South are low, while Northeast and West are at very low transmission levels. Estimates: 🔸135,000 new infections/day 🔸~1 in 500 currently reasonably infectious (5 day avg window) 49217
JPWeiland @jpweiland.bsky.social · 27/03/2026Very interesting trend of EPIC ED data... note the overrepresentation of kids compared to 50+ (and overall average) since Feb compared to prior years. Could this be due to BA.3.2 targeting kids? 15313
JPWeiland @jpweiland.bsky.social · 26/03/2026This is the sequence data as a percentage of each variant in each age group (only including XFG*, NB*, and BA.3.2*) 0283
