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Joyce Karam

@joycekaram.bsky.social
7K followers 155 following 817 posts

Editor-in-Chief, AL-MONITOR | Professor, GWU www.linkedin.com/newsletters/china-…

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Joyce Karam @joycekaram.bsky.social · 21h
For China, Egypt and Ethiopia are key hubs for investments in infrastructure, tech and growing military ties. The clash puts it in a lose-lose proposition, unable to mediate but trying to avoid escalation. A dilemma in a critical conflict that's not getting enough attention
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Joyce Karam @joycekaram.bsky.social · 21h
NEW: #China caught in middle between Egypt and Ethiopia • Escalation over Nile, Tigray, Red Sea • China tilt toward Cairo on water rights • Massive web of interests w both • Expert: China likely to hit pause • No serious power mediating. More: www.al-monitor.com/originals/20...
al-monitor.com
Why renewed Egypt-Ethiopia tensions are a problem for China
For Beijing, the renewed Egypt-Ethiopia standoff is a zero-sum bind that threatens vital strategic interests on both sides of the Nile.
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Joyce Karam @joycekaram.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
Or even mentioned the Syrian military’s miserable experience in Lebanon…Yes, a lot has changed, but fixing problems of the region won’t come through deploying troops from cash-strapped countries into random conflicts.
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Joyce Karam @joycekaram.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
And we haven’t even discussed impact on AQAP (Alqaeda in Yemen), economic cost and risk of drawing in other pro Houthi militias
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Joyce Karam @joycekaram.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
Why sending Syrian fighters to Yemen is ill-fated idea • Destabilizes a fragile Syria • Strengthens Hezbollah remnants • They don’t know Yemen terrain: Just ask Egyptians & Sudanese • Prolongs war, fuels sectarian divide beyond Yemen while potentially empowering Houthis
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Joyce Karam @joycekaram.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
Fasten your seatbelts for a long offensive in Yemen, new phase in brutal war of attrition that has fragmented country in last 12 years. Saudi Arabia is laying ground for a long fight that could extend beyond Red Sea coast. Houthis are fighting back and in no hurry to settle.
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Joyce Karam @joycekaram.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
UPDATE: #Yemen war • Houthis deny military losses • Yemen military says advancing in Red Sea offensive, push toward Taiz •At least 2 Saudi airports hit.✈️ continue • Syria’s Sharaa meets MBS • Turkey may deploy inside Saudi • > 184,000 displaced www.al-monitor.com/originals/20...
al-monitor.com
Syria’s Sharaa in Riyadh as Saudi airports come under Houthi attacks: What to know
Syria's President Ahmed al-Sharaa held talks with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman during a visit to Riyadh as the Houthis escalated their attacks on Saudi Arabia and warned international airlin...
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Joyce Karam @joycekaram.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
⚡️SCOOP: Netanyahu’s visit to #UAE was initially scheduled during week of Sept. 14. UAE canceled that trip one hour before takeoff from Israel, saying MBZ was leaving town…but then MBZ never left. Details here on Bibi’s pressure campaign to make the trip: www.al-monitor.com/originals/20...
al-monitor.com
Inside Netanyahu’s relentless push for meeting with UAE’s MBZ
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu managed to persuade the Emiratis to receive him a month before Israel’s elections, but like other Arab capitals, Abu Dhabi is also in contact with his political rival...
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Joyce Karam @joycekaram.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
A return to 2017 UAE-Saudi alliance is extremely unlikely, that was an exception to the dynamic between these two powers. A better arrangement that maintains Gulf security while having differences on Sudan, Yemen, Algeria, is more realistic but also not guaranteed. Divide grew significantly
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Joyce Karam @joycekaram.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
On Saudi-UAE meeting: - MBS meeting Sheikh Mansour signals desire from highest level to remedy ties w UAE - Yemen game changer but also Hormuz routes - With Israeli elex coming up, Trump's post-midterms Iran policy, Gulf needs closer coordination - Security arrangements priority
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Joyce Karam @joycekaram.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
🗓️ WEBINAR: #Syria’s Sharaa had most interesting 2 months in Middle East. From dissolution of SDF, outreach to Kurds, sanctions relief, Israeli attacks, IAEA visit… no dull moment. Join us Thursday 2 pm ET, 9 pm Damascus to discuss all with great panel ➡️ info.al-monitor.com/dispatch-fro...
info.al-monitor.com
Dispatch from the New Syria: Opportunities and Challenges
Join AL-MONITOR for a conversation with Amberin Zaman, fresh from her latest reporting trip to Syria, and featuring Ibrahim Assil and Aaron Zelin -- moderated by Joyce Karam.
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Joyce Karam @joycekaram.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
NYT, Haaretz, Atlantic, Ynet, WSJ reporting warnings to Netanyahu before attack As Israeli elections near (10/27), expect Bibi to pull all the stops in order to maintain his hold on power. Polls show him trailing against centrist Eisenkot, but 4 weeks is lot of time in Israeli politics
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Joyce Karam @joycekaram.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Few notes: - Netanyahu forcing himself on UAE in a visit that was limited to airport shows level of deep insecurity by PM before Israeli election - UAE has yet to release a photo of meeting and has not adhered to Bibi’s request to deny Oct 7 warnings
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Joyce Karam @joycekaram.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
NEWS: #Israel’s Netanyahu secret visit to UAE has been in works for weeks. He pushed Abu Dhabi to host him ~ 2 weeks ago, Emiratis pushed back…then had to do Sunday’s visit. Details @almonitor.bsky.social www.al-monitor.com/originals/20...
al-monitor.com
On secret UAE visit, Netanyahu asked MBZ to deny pre-Oct. 7 warnings
During his trip to Abu Dhabi, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu asked President Mohamed bin Zayed to deny reports that he had been warned ahead of the Oct. 7 attack that Hamas was preparing a major as...
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Joyce Karam @joycekaram.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Relations steady w Trump admin, but there is realization that US role is changing and region middle powers have to be more proactive in places like Sudan, Libya Conflict containment is for now best case scenario while working on regional solutions until better environment emerges for deals. ENDS
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Joyce Karam @joycekaram.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
- Israeli elections on 10/27 is closely watched by Gulf states, Turkey, Syria, Jordan and Egypt. Those countries have many differences but have consensus in being fed up with Netanyahu. (See leaks on Oct 7 warnings from UAE and Egypt)
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Joyce Karam @joycekaram.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Where does this leave us? - Protracted conflict with Iran until we see a game changer whether inside Tehran or after US midterms. But despite new proposal, none of regional officials we speak to anticipate a deal. They want it but don’t anticipate it.
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Joyce Karam @joycekaram.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
🧵Middle East notes from #UNGA • Pessimism over chances of #Iran deal. Spoilers inside Iran+ outside • Saudi-UAE rift visible • Netanyahu disliked by almost every regional leader • Lebanon still folded under Iran,stuck • Syria’s gov opening channels w all inc. Israel
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Joyce Karam @joycekaram.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
NEW: #UAE's Gargash sees prolonged Iran conflict, calls for Iran-Gulf security talks • War with different tempos • Iranian society active, unpredictable • Arab-Iran security strategic talks necessary • Need Yemeni-Yemeni talks +more on Saudi rift here www.al-monitor.com/originals/20...
al-monitor.com
UAE's Gargash expects 'prolonged' war, calls for Iran-Gulf security talks
"We need a new mindset that these sort of discussions ... can happen at an Iranian-American level, it should also take place at an Iranian-Arab level," Gargash told Al-Monitor.
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Joyce Karam @joycekaram.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
NEW: How #China gains from Yemen chaos 1- US security posture weakened 2- Chinese weaponry with both sides 3- Saudi -Trump disagreements 4- Iran emboldened. More www.al-monitor.com/originals/20...
al-monitor.com
In Yemen, China exploits US security gap while seeking to curb Houthis
The Houthis’ advances around Bab al-Mandab point to another crack in the US-led Gulf security architecture—one China could gain from diplomatically and economically, even as it seeks to prevent a wide...
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Reposted by Joyce Karam
Al-MONITOR @almonitor.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
ANALYSIS: In Yemen, China exploits US security gap while seeking to curb Houthis Via @joycekaram.bsky.social www.al-monitor.com/originals/20...
al-monitor.com
In Yemen, China exploits US security gap while seeking to curb Houthis
The Houthis’ advances around Bab al-Mandab point to another crack in the US-led Gulf security architecture—one China could gain from diplomatically and economically, even as it seeks to prevent a wide...
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Joyce Karam @joycekaram.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
No surprise here, little value for Israel given: - lack of leverage/deterrence in Yemen - wants to exact heavy price from Saudi before any such assistance - Houthis have not struck Israel since June
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Joyce Karam @joycekaram.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
SCOOP: Israeli intelligence officials do not favor entering war against Houthis at this point, or launching preemptive strikes in #Yemen. Details @almonitor.bsky.social www.al-monitor.com/originals/20...
al-monitor.com
Lacking deterrence, Israel’s security establishment opposes attacks on Houthis
Senior Israeli intelligence sources told Al-Monitor that Israel seeks to avoid involvement in the conflict between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia, despite concerns that Yemen could further unravel and t...
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Reposted by Joyce Karam
Al-MONITOR @almonitor.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
In first, Saudi Arabia activates Mecca warning system amid Houthi threat www.al-monitor.com/originals/20...
al-monitor.com
In first, Saudi Arabia activates Mecca warning system amid Houthi threat
Saudi Arabia activated emergency alerts in the holy city for the first time since Yemen's Houthi group intensified its drone and missile attacks on the kingdom.
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Joyce Karam @joycekaram.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
If you're the Houthis, this is a big opportunity - No pressure from US - Saudi vs UAE factions at odds in Yemen - Advancing on ground toward Marib - Israel standing back - Besides condemnations, EU and others not doing much
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Joyce Karam @joycekaram.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
UPDATE: #Yemen • Houthis advance, take 2 islands • CENTCOM chief meets Saudi's MBS • Vance: We are talking to Houthis • MBS to Egypt tomorrow • >80,000 displaced www.al-monitor.com/originals/20...
al-monitor.com
Yemen's Houthis push deeper into Red Sea, capture 2 islands: What to know
Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis have captured two strategic islands in the southern Red Sea, expanding their foothold in the waterway as Saudi Arabia faces growing pressure on its oil export routes.
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Joyce Karam @joycekaram.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
Kingdom still has options and cards to play inside Yemen, but fallout of Iran war proving to be detrimental on Saudi Arabia’s security, economic vision & energy routes. Even if US decides to launch airstrikes in Yemen , those have proven ineffective over last 12 years and in Hormuz. Houthis know it
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Joyce Karam @joycekaram.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
Precarious situation for #Saudi Arabia as Houthis advance - Taking fire from Houthis, Iraqi militias, and in few cases IRGC - At odds with STC in Yemen - Rivalry still ongoing with UAE - US not reliable as security guarantor - Mecca pact w Turkey, Pakistan proving ineffective
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Joyce Karam @joycekaram.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
CONFIRMED: CENTCOM Chief Adm Cooper is in Saudi Arabia as Houthis take Bab al-Mandab. Major setback for Riyadh with big implications for regional security. More here from @jmszuba.bsky.social www.al-monitor.com/originals/20...
al-monitor.com
Top US general in Saudi Arabia as Yemen's Houthis seize Bab al-Mandeb
The Houthis' seizure of Mocha and Perim Island effectively puts them in a position to close the Bab al-Mandeb.
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Joyce Karam @joycekaram.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
Interesting case to follow as it might have geopolitical implications as UAE reassesses Yemen policy, Gaza moves and beyond. More to come after short vacation here in Middle East. Hope everyone is well 🎣
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Joyce Karam @joycekaram.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
Interesting move by UAE’s MBZ, pardoning Egyptian-Turkish poet Abdul Rahman Qardawi - Son of Yousef Qardawi, Godfather of Muslim Brotherhood, historically at odds w UAE - Next move will be telling: hand to Egypt where he is wanted (UAE closes case), OR to Turkey (olive branch)?
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Joyce Karam @joycekaram.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
NEW: #China's Xi to visit #Egypt • First in a decade • Follows military drills • Huawei expands AI ties • Amid US differences: Sisi has NOT been to Washington since 2022. More: www.al-monitor.com/originals/20...
al-monitor.com
China's Xi to visit Egypt for first time in decade as military, Huawei ties grow
The visit comes as Chinese telecoms giant Huawei seeks to supply more than 2,000 advanced AI chips for Egyptian government data centers.
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Joyce Karam @joycekaram.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
🚨 SCOOP: #Israel rethinking Syria policy, seeking reset with 'Trump's man', envoyTom Barrack, following recent escalation. Details @almonitor.bsky.social www.al-monitor.com/originals/20...
al-monitor.com
Israel recalibrates Syria policy, explores path to security deal
Israel is rethinking its hard-line Syria policy and seeking to repair ties with US envoy and Donald Trump's confidant Tom Barrack amid a push for a security agreement with Damascus.
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Joyce Karam @joycekaram.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
And it's official ✅ Syria removed from US state sponsor of terror list after 47 years (admin. statement). Iran only Middle Eastern country left on list along with Cuba, North Korea. Sudan, Libya removed in last 2 decades.
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Joyce Karam @joycekaram.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
🚨 NEWS: Syria Designation as Sponsor of Terror Comes Off Today after 47 Years. Major milestone for Damascus: www.al-monitor.com/originals/20...
al-monitor.com
US set to lift Syria's terror designation after 47 years
The Trump administration is expected to rescind the label on Monday, a US official said.
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Joyce Karam @joycekaram.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
NEW: #Jordan King Abdullah visits China • 7-day visit • Heavy economic agenda • Hedges against US unpredictability • Comes as UAE, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Oman ramp up ties with Beijing. More: www.al-monitor.com/originals/20...
al-monitor.com
King Abdullah visits China as region hedges against US unpredictability
With no end in sight to the war in Iran and an unchecked Israeli policy across the region, the kingdom is hedging against future uncertainty and a less predictable US policy.
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Reposted by Joyce Karam
Al-MONITOR @almonitor.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
King Abdullah visits China as region hedges against US unpredictability With no end in sight to the war in Iran and an unchecked Israeli policy across the region, the kingdom is hedging against future uncertainty and a less predictable US policy. www.al-monitor.com/originals/20...
al-monitor.com
King Abdullah visits China as region hedges against US unpredictability
With no end in sight to the war in Iran and an unchecked Israeli policy across the region, the kingdom is hedging against future uncertainty and a less predictable US policy.
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Joyce Karam @joycekaram.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
- The targeting of Kurdistan in Iraq, Saudi refineries and now UAE show a more brazen approach by IRGC + proxies. - The denials by Iran in 2 counts are more of face saving gesture - UAE tried hard since May to protect economic interests, work an arrangement with Tehran but that’s coming apart
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Joyce Karam @joycekaram.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
UPDATE: UAE halts all trade ties w Iran • All trade, commercial ties halted • After 2 ballistic missiles target UAE • Iran FM denies responsibility • First such attack since May • Follows targeting of ADNOC vessels www.al-monitor.com/originals/20...
al-monitor.com
UAE halts all trade ties with Iran after missile attack
The incident follows the UAE blaming Iran for strikes on ADNOC vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.
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Joyce Karam @joycekaram.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
Trump threatening Oman (again) shows lack of US leverage in changing current status-quo. Iran knows and is advancing its deal with Oman, while exercising broader pressure points (Houthis, Lebanon). Gulf states taking notice, trying to work own arrangements. A mess.
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Joyce Karam @joycekaram.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
UPDATE • Trump threatens to bomb Oman (longtime US partner) • Oman-Iran nearing Hormuz deal • US-Iran MOU expired.. • IRGC draws plans to escalate if hit: WSJ • Kushner met Hamas, Netanyahu • Clearfield in Lebanon • King of Jordan ✈️ #China www.al-monitor.com/originals/20...
al-monitor.com
Trump threatens to bomb Oman if it 'gets in the way' of US-Iran deal
The US president also threatened to "blow up" the Gulf partner in May.
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Joyce Karam @joycekaram.bsky.social · 14/08/2026
📻On Iran and Hormuz, told NPR that #IRGC is consolidating power, doesn't want war to end...what we are seeing is effectively the iteration of the third Islamic Republic. the1a.org/segments/hor...
the1a.org
The News Roundup - International
Bibi walks a tightrope. Friday marks five years since Afghanistan.
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Joyce Karam @joycekaram.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
For first time in decades, US no longer at center of Gulf security. Iran war eroding that trust, so are Trump's shaky commitments: Saudi nuclear deal episode; Hormuz. China steadily coming in to boost defense ties across MENA. Sign-up to our China NL here www.al-monitor.com/newsletter/s...
al-monitor.com
Subscribe to our newsletters. - AL-MONITOR: The Middle Eastʼs leading independent news source since 2012
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Joyce Karam @joycekaram.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
NEW: 3 ways #China benefits from Saudi-Turkey-Pakistan deal 1- Diversification away from US 2- Pakistan alliance 3- More defense sales for Gulf. More: www.al-monitor.com/originals/20...
al-monitor.com
Three ways China benefits from Saudi-Turkey-Pakistan pact: What to know
The pact points to a more multipolar Middle Eastern security order, one in which Washington is no longer the unquestioned center of Gulf security.
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Joyce Karam @joycekaram.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
You just can't give up on Lebanon. The resilience and stubbornness of its people and civil society to push forward, despite all odds, are remarkable.
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Joyce Karam @joycekaram.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
NEWS: #Lebanon has become first Arab country to abolish the death penalty. Major progress for Beirut despite war, outside meddling and economic stagnation www.al-monitor.com/originals/20...
al-monitor.com
Lebanon becomes first Arab country to abolish death penalty
Hezbollah’s parliamentary bloc walked out of Tuesday’s session in protest of the measure.
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Joyce Karam @joycekaram.bsky.social · 10/08/2026
In last 3 days: - Iran indicated it’s in no rush on any deal - Houthis on offensive - Hezbollah carrying more attacks - Hormuz closed - Rezaei to forefront of security strategy Whoever thought this war would produce “a moderate” regime, should take hard look at who is in charge
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Joyce Karam @joycekaram.bsky.social · 10/08/2026
NEW: 5.5 months into US war in #Iran, regime is fully embracing hardline militant policy. The appointment of IRGC veteran Mohsen Rezaei to top security post is message to Gulf, Washington that this is a time of doubling down on proxies… www.al-monitor.com/originals/20...
al-monitor.com
Who is Iran’s Mohsen Rezaei, hard-line IRGC veteran appointed to top security post?
Mohsen Rezaei's appointment comes as Iran navigates a fragile halt in hostilities with the US and negotiations over reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
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Joyce Karam @joycekaram.bsky.social · 07/08/2026
Geopolitical messages that MBS is sending - Instead of Abraham accords, it is Mecca accords - Instead of a GCC defense pact, Saudi Arabia is looking to Turkey, Pakistan Turns page on alliance w UAE + anti-Islamist approach. Still doesn’t mean Turkey alliance; Egypt stayed out
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Joyce Karam @joycekaram.bsky.social · 07/08/2026
Saudi-Turkey-Pakistan defense pact - Significant: Reflects anxiety in Gulf, confidence shaken in US after Iran war, attacks by Houthis+Iraqi militias - Not a game changer: Turkey has such agreement w Qatar; Pakistan-KSA have agreement; US security commitment still irreplaceable
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