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Jonathan Adams

@jonathanjadams.com

1.4K followers 436 following 35 posts

Macroeconomist studying expectations and information. KC Fed (views are my own) Research: www.jonathanjadams.com

Jonathan Adams @jonathanjadams.com · 09/07/2025

Finding: *all shocks* are mostly news. Even the most surprise-like shocks are <50% due to immediate policy changes. Here’s the Aruoba-Drechsel narrative shock:

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Jonathan Adams @jonathanjadams.com · 09/07/2025

Application #1: We estimate the term structures of popular EMPS in the literature. E.g. here is the term structure for Swanson’s forward guidance shock. Nearly all the information is news about future policy.

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Jonathan Adams @jonathanjadams.com · 09/07/2025

Important: surprise shocks have different effects from news shocks at every news horizon. Here’s how they affect prices in the New Keynesian model:

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Jonathan Adams @jonathanjadams.com · 09/07/2025

Philip Barrett @phibar.bsky.social and I address this question in a new working paper. In it, we propose a method to extract the news that EMPS contain about future policy, and apply the method to many shocks from the literature. There is a lot to learn!

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