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Jolly's Market Thoughts @jollyspears.bsky.social · 28/05/2025

Economic data week ending 5/31: 5/29 at 8:30am: GDP Q1 first revision. Previous Q1 GDP numbers crushed the S&P and saw a day of much higher volatility. 5/30 at 8:30am: PCE data It's hard to keep up with what tariffs exist and which are postponed. PCE should start reflecting this.

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Jolly's Market Thoughts @jollyspears.bsky.social · 21/05/2025

No economic data this week to pay attention to. Instead, it's more just waiting for momentum to pick up in either direction. The last week has seen the VIX going down and SPY upside stalling out. The catalyst for further upside is headlines around trade deals. #S&P500 #Stocks

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Jolly's Market Thoughts @jollyspears.bsky.social · 12/05/2025

Economic data week ending 5/17: May 13th, 8:30am: CPI May 15th, 8:30am: PPI May 15th, 8:40am: Jpowell speech Current headlines around trade deals are stealing the show from any other market moving news. That being said, it's still important to pay attention to the inflation readings.

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Jolly's Market Thoughts @jollyspears.bsky.social · 09/05/2025

The end of today's trading day wasn't confidence inspiring but at least #SPY ended up. If SPY can get another 1% higher before any sell off, I think that'll be enough to go bullish. The major story line is will Trump get any trade deals. If yes, be bullish, if no, stay bearish. #S&P500 #Daytrade

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Jolly's Market Thoughts @jollyspears.bsky.social · 08/05/2025

Today was very muted compared to standard Fed Press Conference days. #Jpowell gave another higher for longer and wait and see speech. To me, he sounded nervous at the start with a hint of optimism toward the end. I'm paying extra attention to tomorrow's movement. #Daytrade #SPY #Stocks

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Jolly's Market Thoughts @jollyspears.bsky.social · 07/05/2025

#SPY ended lower today but I wouldn't look too closely at today's movement. Tomorrow's press conference is what will determine the next leg up or down. The Fed's ideas around how tariffs will affect the rate cut path is what I'm waiting for news on. #Daytrade #S&P500 #Stocks

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Jolly's Market Thoughts @jollyspears.bsky.social · 06/05/2025

It turns out #SPY can go down. With the Fed meeting just around the corner that's where all eyes will be. There's been many times in the past when a single question during the press conference changed the direction of day. Sit tight until then and see what #Jpowell says. #Daytrade #Stocks

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Jolly's Market Thoughts @jollyspears.bsky.social · 05/05/2025

Economic data week ending 5/10: May 7th 2pm: Fed Interest rate decision. May 7th 2:30pm: Fed chair Powell press conference. Wednesday is very important. There's almost no chance of a rate cut but Powell's thoughts on the economy moving forward will be important.

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Jolly's Market Thoughts @jollyspears.bsky.social · 03/05/2025

Another solid up day for #SPY as it ends +1.46%. We're still trading upward without beneficial news, just hopes and dreams. If you are holding calls, I wouldn't blame you for continuing to hold. Headline risk does seem to be leaning towards possible good news. #Daytrade #S&P500 #Stocks

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Jolly's Market Thoughts @jollyspears.bsky.social · 02/05/2025

#SPY opened higher and closed near the open. This is a decent follow through after yesterday's V recovery. With the final 10 minutes moving lower I wouldn't be holding for an additional day. For a longer position, I'm still waiting for the news to match the movement. #Daytrade #S&P500 #Stocks

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Jolly's Market Thoughts @jollyspears.bsky.social · 01/05/2025

I didn't have GDP numbers on my list of market moving data but I'll have to add it for the next few months. Today was the first time I've seen it affect the stock market like this. With #SPY having a giant V recovery that certainly feels bullish for the next couple days. #Daytrade #Stocks #S&P500

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Jolly's Market Thoughts @jollyspears.bsky.social · 29/04/2025

Economic data week ending 5/2: PCE - Wednesday at 10am. Unemployment data - Friday at 830am. We're almost at the point where tariffs will be affecting these data releases. There's also plenty of companies with earnings this week.

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Jolly's Market Thoughts @jollyspears.bsky.social · 24/04/2025

#SPY closed at $546.55, right at the $546 level I'm watching. Markets have been trending higher in tariff cut hopes but there's still no good news. If tomorrow is an additional follow through day and the Whitehouse gives a solid trade news update, I could see a ton of upside potential. #Daytrade

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Jolly's Market Thoughts @jollyspears.bsky.social · 23/04/2025

#SPY ended up +1.55% but at one point today was up over 3%. Half the day's gains were erased as tariff deal optimism fell off. SPY still hasn't eclipsed where it was during that huge 9% up day. If we can get above $546 on solid momentum, I may change my bearish thesis. Until then, still bearish.

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Jolly's Market Thoughts @jollyspears.bsky.social · 23/04/2025

Dip buyers did in fact come in today. News of "possible" deals fueling the market. Headline risk in either direction remains high and even when bearish its still best to stay out and wait for a basing pattern in price action or actual good news on tariffs. #Stocks #Daytrade #SPY

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Jolly's Market Thoughts @jollyspears.bsky.social · 22/04/2025

#SPY down 2.36%. Tomorrow will be very telling if dip buyers come in. Right now my assumption is that we're going to retest the recent swing low fairly soon. Markets are on edge with recent Trump comments and no good news (yet) on trade deals. Bearish until proven otherwise. #Stocks #S&P500

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Jolly's Market Thoughts @jollyspears.bsky.social · 21/04/2025

Economic data week ending 4/26: None! Instead today I'll speak about the continued attack on #Jpowell by the Trump admin. Over the last several years I have been very impressed with how the fed board has conducted themselves. Did they initially wait too long to raise rates during covid?

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Jolly's Market Thoughts @jollyspears.bsky.social · 18/04/2025

A choppy sideways day for the S&P. While this was a green day there wasn't enough movement to change my short term thesis. Still bearish till proven otherwise. Markets are closed tomorrow so make sure to get outside and enjoy the fresh air! #Stocks #S&P500 #SPY 📈

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Jolly's Market Thoughts @jollyspears.bsky.social · 16/04/2025

All the signs were there for today to be a return to the downside. #SPY ended down 2.21%. Fed chair Powell warning that keeping inflation under control with these tariffs is going to be a challenge. This was an expected speech but the market was hoping for signs of rate cuts. #Stocks #Daytrade

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Jolly's Market Thoughts @jollyspears.bsky.social · 15/04/2025

I'd describe the last few days as a counter trend that's reaching its exhaustion point. We saw plenty of Sell The Rip taking place and #SPY ended lower by 0.26% after initially gaining. My assumption is a resumed downtrend through the remainder of the week. #Stocks #S&P500

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Jolly's Market Thoughts @jollyspears.bsky.social · 15/04/2025

No economic data this week to pay attention to. #SPY ended slightly higher but the start and end of the day was down. Tariffs between the US and China are still being decided and a lot is still up in the air right now. I'm still being patient. #Stocks #S&P500

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Jolly's Market Thoughts @jollyspears.bsky.social · 12/04/2025

A day where #SPY "only" moves 1.79% feels like a calm day. Today everyone was able to step back and relax for a moment. China did increase their retaliatory tariffs and the long term effects are still a question mark. Pay attention to headlines this weekend. #Stocks #S&P500

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Jolly's Market Thoughts @jollyspears.bsky.social · 10/04/2025

Reality came back into existence as #SPY ended down 4.36%. Tariffs haven't gone anywhere and the long term implications are still unknown. Will we make a deal with China? Will Trump have to cave on tariffs if consumer prices get too high? With so many unknowns, it's best to wait on the sidelines.

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Jolly's Market Thoughts @jollyspears.bsky.social · 10/04/2025

HEADLINE RISK. Another wild day in the markets. #SPY went up 9.45%. I said before that even when we saw a huge upside day I still couldn't turn bullish. I stand by that, for now. Right now everyone is trading based on the tweets of a president. I don't think that's sustainable. #Stocks

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Jolly's Market Thoughts @jollyspears.bsky.social · 08/04/2025

Today more market participants saw an opportunity to get out as even more tariffs were looming. #SPY was up over 3% and then ended down 1.51%. I'm still just being patient and waiting for a basing pattern, better headlines, and a lower #VIX. I could be eating popcorn for a while. #Daytrade #Stocks

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Jolly's Market Thoughts @jollyspears.bsky.social · 07/04/2025

An erroneous news report sent #SPY flying higher at 10am today. The Whitehouse quickly said "fake news" and the markets were brought back down to earth. This is just one example of many in the last couple weeks of headline risk. It's best to stay out until a foothold is established. #S&P500 #Stocks

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Jolly's Market Thoughts @jollyspears.bsky.social · 07/04/2025

Economic data week ending 4/11: April 9th 2:00pm - Fed Minutes of the March FOMC meeting. April 10th 830am - CPI data April 11th 830am - PPI data Will any of these be more market moving than current headlines? Of course not. However, it has the possibility of adding more fuel to the fire.

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Jolly's Market Thoughts @jollyspears.bsky.social · 05/04/2025

Lots to go over today. One, a reminder to all that today isn't the end. If you're young and feeling like you won't get to retire based on investments, take a step back and look at the long term chart of the #S&P500. It will recover, the only question is when. Two, the #VIX is at 45. This is absurd.

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Jolly's Market Thoughts @jollyspears.bsky.social · 03/04/2025

For anyone close to retirement age, I hope you are doing okay after today. We've crossed into unknown territory with unknown consequences. I'll come back tomorrow with my normal market updates.

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Jolly's Market Thoughts @jollyspears.bsky.social · 02/04/2025

Today's movement is again irrelevant because tariff announcements were delayed until 4pm. Tariffs were in fact worse than expected so the rally we saw today only served as a small buffer against the waterfall decline that is happening. #Stocks #SPY

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Jolly's Market Thoughts @jollyspears.bsky.social · 01/04/2025

A back and forth day ends with #SPY up 0.29%. Today is again a day I wouldn't look at too deeply. Nobody is certain what will happen on "liberation day". We're about to find out how serious Trump is about furthering the trade war. The bull case scenario is tariffs being lower than expected.

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Jolly's Market Thoughts @jollyspears.bsky.social · 01/04/2025

The #S&P500 had a nice recovery after Friday's momentum carried through to the open. I'm not thinking much of it as it easily could have been fund managers needing to show they were invested on their quarterly report. April 2nd is the date to watch still. #Daytrade #Stocks

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Jolly's Market Thoughts @jollyspears.bsky.social · 31/03/2025

Economic Data week ending 4/5: Friday 4/4 830am: U.S unemployment rate. The fed keeps careful track of the unemployment rate and uses this as a part of the "will we cut rates" puzzle. This isn't very market moving but you should be aware of it. There are no inflation data reports this week.

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Jolly's Market Thoughts @jollyspears.bsky.social · 29/03/2025

With #SPY ending down 2% and ending below 560, I'll be looking for bearish setups next week. $560 actually turned into resistance for a brief moment today. Macro conditions regarding tariffs are worse than they were when we last touched these levels. #Daytrade #Stocks Enjoy the weekend!

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Jolly's Market Thoughts @jollyspears.bsky.social · 27/03/2025

#SPY ended down 0.28% after a choppy mixed reaction to yesterday's news. $570 returned to its place as a resistance level and we're still in the 560/570 no man's zone. #PCE data comes out tmr at 830am. It hasn't been market moving recently but I'm sure in a month or so it will be again. #Daytrade

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Jolly's Market Thoughts @jollyspears.bsky.social · 26/03/2025

Of course as soon as the markets calm down additional tariff news is released. That's the one thing that cannot happen if a rally is going to happen. #SPY ended down 1.17% which puts us back into the 560/570 zone. From now until the 2nd it might be best to enter wait and see mode. #Daytrade #S&P500

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Jolly's Market Thoughts @jollyspears.bsky.social · 26/03/2025

Today was the follow through I wanted to see to turn bullish short term. #SPY ended up 0.22% after a calm day. If headlines continue to say less tariffs or there's just fewer bad things to talk about, this could start a sustained uptrend. However, April 2nd is the date to watch. #Daytrade #Stocks

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Jolly's Market Thoughts @jollyspears.bsky.social · 24/03/2025

Huge up day for #SPY and the VIX dropped down to 17.54. SPY ended above the 570 level I've been watching and above the 200 day. Assuming a follow through day tomorrow, I'll be looking for bullish upside through week end. #Daytrade #S&P500 #stocks

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Jolly's Market Thoughts @jollyspears.bsky.social · 24/03/2025

Economic data week ending 3/28: Friday at 8:30am: PCE. Again not much to watch for this week. Going into Friday it's a good idea not to hold overnight trades. Inflation data isn't as market moving as it used to be but with tariffs it'll gain renewed importance.

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Jolly's Market Thoughts @jollyspears.bsky.social · 22/03/2025

Today #SPY opened below 560 and then ended at the midpoint between 560/570 again. I'm still maintaining that a breakout and follow through of those levels would likely determine the next larger move. Keep an eye on headlines over the weekend. #Daytrade #Stocks

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Jolly's Market Thoughts @jollyspears.bsky.social · 20/03/2025

Today perfectly illustrated what I talked about yesterday. #SPY went up to 570 and found resistance. Then closed in the center of the 560/570 levels as there was a back and forth between the rate cuts are bullish and tariffs are bearish stories. I maintain these are the levels to watch. #Daytrade

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Jolly's Market Thoughts @jollyspears.bsky.social · 19/03/2025

I believe in following story lines and seeing if they line up with the current technicals or if they disagree. Here are the current market stories: AI: Basically dead. Could be re-ignited later but I don't think generative AI is it. Tariffs: The trade war could just be heating up... (see replies)

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Jolly's Market Thoughts @jollyspears.bsky.social · 19/03/2025

Today moved basically as expected but I wouldn't have guessed the direction correctly. Glad I learned to not trade days when #Jpowell speaks. In the last week, we've seen #SPY find resistance at 570 and support at 560. Waiting for a break out of those is likely the next best play. #Daytrade #Stocks📈

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Jolly's Market Thoughts @jollyspears.bsky.social · 18/03/2025

If you read today's 5 minute chart of #SPY from right to left, that's basically what I expect to happen tomorrow. Back and forth low volatility until the fed announcement at 2 and press conference at 230 causing a large move at the end of the day. I avoid trading FOMC meeting days. #Daytrade #Stocks

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Jolly's Market Thoughts @jollyspears.bsky.social · 17/03/2025

Without any new (that I saw) market collapsing news over the weekend the #S&P500 was able to follow through to the upside. #SPY ended up 0.75% after a small sell off in the final 10 minutes. I'm not sure how sustainable further upside would be given the current story lines. #Daytrade #Stocks

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Jolly's Market Thoughts @jollyspears.bsky.social · 17/03/2025

Market data this week: Wednesday at 2pm - Interest rate decision. Wednesday at 2:30pm - FOMC press conference Outside of that, this week is very light on market moving data. If the fed does anything other than leave rates unchanged, I believe that would be an admission of defeat.

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Jolly's Market Thoughts @jollyspears.bsky.social · 14/03/2025

#SPY going up 2.06% is a nice rebound but it's still a weekly loss. Typically when momentum is in just one direction for a day, I'd bet on more upside going into the next market open. However, headline risk remains too high especially over a weekend. Still bearish. #Daytrade #S&P500 #Stocks

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Jolly's Market Thoughts @jollyspears.bsky.social · 13/03/2025

#SPY down another 1.32% today. #SellTheRip again manifested itself as every attempted leg higher was met with more selling. Really not much to look into today as its just more of the same. Bearish till proven otherwise. #Daytrade #S&P500 #Tariffs

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Jolly's Market Thoughts @jollyspears.bsky.social · 12/03/2025

Today was a relief day as inflation data was better than expected. However, February's data and March's (out next month) won't fully reflect tariffs yet. Just as one down day doesn't signal a bear market, one up day doesn't change what's been happening. Bearish till proven otherwise. #Daytrade #SPY

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Jolly's Market Thoughts @jollyspears.bsky.social · 12/03/2025

Starting next Monday before market open I'll be posting what economic data comes out that week that you should be aware of. This will help me keep track of it all so I don't need to find everything online before each day and I figure it should help others. #Economy #Tariffs #PCE #CPI #Stocks

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