John Sjoholm @johnsjoholm.bsky.social · 08/10/2026"Russia’s external capacity is conditional upon internal coherence. Pressure applied where Moscow chooses to project power addresses only the symptom. Pressure applied to the coherence that makes projection possible addresses the condition itself." 000
Reposted by John SjoholmJohn Sjoholm @johnsjoholm.bsky.social · 25/05/2026Clausewitz and Western strategic approaches war as a continuation of politics through other means. Russian strategic thinking inverts this: politics is the continuation of war through other means. johnsjoholm.substack.com/p/politics-a...johnsjoholm.substack.comPolitics as the Continuation of ConflictMessner, Managed Instability, and the Russian Understanding of War 022
Reposted by John SjoholmJohn Sjoholm @johnsjoholm.bsky.social · 29/09/2026My friend @paultlevin.bsky.social and I have discussed how Europe should respond to Russia’s hybrid campaign. A good conversation should lead somewhere, and ours did. We propose credible, asymmetric and graduated deterrence, with covert action at its core and diplomacy providing the way back down.johnsjoholm.substack.comTowards a European Hybrid Warfare StrategyHow to Deter Without Escalating 033
Reposted by John SjoholmJohn Sjoholm @johnsjoholm.bsky.social · 25/09/2026Russia spends considerable resources projecting power beyond its borders. Perhaps we should become more interested in how much of that power can be made to turn inward. johnsjoholm.substack.com/p/fracture-f...johnsjoholm.substack.comFracture, Friction, Fatigue.Кончится лето 011
Reposted by John SjoholmTapani Hopkins @tapani-hopkins.bsky.social · 29/09/2026Good to see some concrete suggestions as to a strategy! Although I do wonder: if we develop covert abilities to damage Russia, should we limit ourselves to responding to Russian attacks? Seems like there'd be a temptation to go all in even if Russia wound down their attacks. 🤔 173
John Sjoholm @johnsjoholm.bsky.social · 29/09/2026My friend @paultlevin.bsky.social and I have discussed how Europe should respond to Russia’s hybrid campaign. A good conversation should lead somewhere, and ours did. We propose credible, asymmetric and graduated deterrence, with covert action at its core and diplomacy providing the way back down.johnsjoholm.substack.comTowards a European Hybrid Warfare StrategyHow to Deter Without Escalating 033
Reposted by John SjoholmPaul T. Levin @paultlevin.bsky.social · 29/09/2026Together with @johnsjoholm.bsky.social, I've been working on a proposal for a forward-leaning European hybrid warfare. It is just now out! We propose a covert-action-centered strategy that emphasizes credibility, asymmetry in retaliation, and graduated imposition of costs.+paultlevin.substack.comTowards a European Hybrid Warfare StrategyHow to Deter Without Escalating 1113
John Sjoholm @johnsjoholm.bsky.social · 25/09/2026Russia spends considerable resources projecting power beyond its borders. Perhaps we should become more interested in how much of that power can be made to turn inward. johnsjoholm.substack.com/p/fracture-f...johnsjoholm.substack.comFracture, Friction, Fatigue.Кончится лето 011
John Sjoholm @johnsjoholm.bsky.social · 24/09/2026Thanks for the shoutout Paul, much appreciated! 121
John Sjoholm @johnsjoholm.bsky.social · 16/09/2026Valet 2026: Pyrrhussegrar och konsten att vinna utan att segra. Några tankar om valet, och om varför en valseger inte nödvändigtvis innebär att man har vunnit särskilt mycket. Om Metternich och faran med att förväxla modellen med verkligheten. johnsjoholm.substack.com/p/valet-2026...johnsjoholm.substack.comValet 2026: Pyrrhussegrar och konsten att vinna utan att segraRevision ∞, mistakes were made. 000
John Sjoholm @johnsjoholm.bsky.social · 07/07/2026Bra intervju. Skönt att höra mer en mer vuxen, långsiktig och kontinental röst tala om dessa saker i det Svenska utrymmet - istället för ankdammens vanliga navelskådande. 110
John Sjoholm @johnsjoholm.bsky.social · 01/07/2026Gissar att dom inte håller med dig, att dom själva tycker dom var väldigt roliga och vällustiga. 010
John Sjoholm @johnsjoholm.bsky.social · 29/06/2026I am not known for a sense of humour, but have a few suggestions… 010
Reposted by John SjoholmPaul T. Levin @paultlevin.bsky.social · 28/06/2026Absolutely terrific reporting by @shaunwalker7.bsky.social in the @theguardian.com about Eastern Europe’s ambivalence when it comes to Europe’s reliance on the US as a security guarantor. It matches what I hear from Swedish diplomats stationed there.+theguardian.comAll quiet on the eastern flank? Nato leaders fear they can no longer rely on US help if Russia attacksTrump administration’s rhetoric has created so much uncertainty that Poland and Baltic states have fresh doubts as alliance prepares to meet next month 1207
John Sjoholm @johnsjoholm.bsky.social · 05/06/2026substack.com/@johnsjoholm...substack.comOn InstabilityCompetition, by other means. 000
Reposted by John SjoholmSven-Erik Volberg @volberg.bsky.social · 04/06/2026🇷🇺 political scientist and former intel officer Andrey Bezrukov stated at the SPIEF that russia "will live under wartime conditions for several more decades. The world is already in a phase of global conflict, and the next 20 years will be a time of constant confrontation🧵 1/3 t.me/streetwall/3... 1166
John Sjoholm @johnsjoholm.bsky.social · 25/05/2026Clausewitz and Western strategic approaches war as a continuation of politics through other means. Russian strategic thinking inverts this: politics is the continuation of war through other means. johnsjoholm.substack.com/p/politics-a...johnsjoholm.substack.comPolitics as the Continuation of ConflictMessner, Managed Instability, and the Russian Understanding of War 022
Reposted by John Sjoholmvesselspotter.eurosky.social @vesselspotter.eurosky.social · 23/05/2026#Russia disinformation fuelled conspiracytheories about #ferry #disaster #Estonia #BalticSea #GRU Anton Surikov swedenherald.com/article/russ...swedenherald.comRussian spy behind conspiracy theories about the M/S Estonia | Sweden HeraldA colonel in the Russian intelligence service GRU sowed the seeds of conspiracy theories about the Estonia disaster 33516
John Sjoholm @johnsjoholm.bsky.social · 22/05/2026The issue is no longer ideology, but reliability. When multiple crises converge, American security guarantees increasingly appear subject to redistribution, delay, and domestic political tempo. Europe is beginning, slowly, to notice. johnsjoholm.substack.com/p/the-reliab...johnsjoholm.substack.comThe Reliability ProblemOn Strategic Dependence in the Backwater of the Trump–Xi Meeting 000
John Sjoholm @johnsjoholm.bsky.social · 17/05/2026Förmodligen handlar det mer om att vi saknar förmågan att “adapt and overcome” i relation till verkligheten på under fem år. Jag misstänker att Palantir-affären är ett rent textboksexempel på overcome by events (OBE) kombinerat med trög konsensusbyråkrati. 110
Reposted by John SjoholmPaul T. Levin @paultlevin.bsky.social · 17/05/2026My bold (and, in a double sense, offensive?) recommendations for how European actors can develop hybrid-warfare deterrence capabilities vis-à-vis Russia (and others).open.substack.comTaking the Fight to PutinClosing Europe's hybrid warfare capabilities gap 0133
Reposted by John SjoholmPaul T. Levin @paultlevin.bsky.social · 14/05/2026I long ago promised a follow-up to my five-part Substack series on Russia's hybrid war against democracy in the West & beyond. Here's the first of two posts exploring Europe's hybrid warfare capabilities. In this post, I argue that Europe's focus so far amounts to getting better at taking punches.+open.substack.comEurope’s hybrid deterrence gapWhy we are fighting a war unarmed 2123
Reposted by John SjoholmSven-Erik Volberg @volberg.bsky.social · 14/05/2026Secretary of the Army Driscoll: "Ukraine's Delta common operating system, their modular open system architecture, C2 system is absolutely incredible. It fully integrates every single drone, sensor, and shooting platform into just one single network. Ours does not." Ukraine is the future! 🃏 18420
Reposted by John SjoholmKaja Kallas @kajakallas.bsky.social · 12/05/2026Deterrence works if it is credible. Showing weakness only invites aggression. That’s why we need to close defence capability gaps through faster arms production, cheaper arms, and more rapid delivery. Extract from my press remarks following today’s Foreign Affairs Council on Defence ↓ 18502117
John Sjoholm @johnsjoholm.bsky.social · 09/05/2026Mstislav Rostropovich: A profile of the cellist, conductor, exile, and prestige artist who refused to become harmless. open.substack.com/pub/johnsjoh...open.substack.comGuarding the Guard: When the Cellist Held the RifleA profile of Mstislav Rostropovich: cellist, conductor, exile, and the refusal to become harmless. 000
John Sjoholm @johnsjoholm.bsky.social · 08/05/2026Russia increasingly appears less interested in reconciling with Soviet repression than in subsuming it beneath patriotic mythology and anti-fascist state narratives. Historical memory is reorganised not merely as remembrance, but as political infrastructure. johnsjoholm.substack.com/p/russian-im...johnsjoholm.substack.comRussian Imperative (Русский императив)National Myth and the Management of Collective Emotion 000
John Sjoholm @johnsjoholm.bsky.social · 08/05/2026In 2008, Beirut sought to apply monopoly-state logic to an environment that had long ceased functioning monopolistically. Hezbollah operated according to the realities that actually existed. open.substack.com/pub/johnsjoh...open.substack.comLebanon: Inside the ShellStates Are Not Supposed to Retreat From Themselves 000
John Sjoholm @johnsjoholm.bsky.social · 03/05/2026"The Western Balkans increasingly illustrate the continued effectiveness of legacy Soviet and Russian Active Measures (Активные мероприятия), adapted to modern operational environments.[...]The aim is not dominance, but friction. Not control, but position." johnsjoholm.substack.com/p/stably-uns...johnsjoholm.substack.comStably Unstable: The Architecture of Russia’s Hybrid War in the Western Balkans (2026)Stability is not the objective. Predictable instability is. 000
Reposted by John SjoholmPaul T. Levin @paultlevin.bsky.social · 20/04/2026Nothing to see, just a Russian bomber carrying a nuclear-capable missile over the Baltic Sea today. (And the Swedish Air Force intercepting it.) 0101
Reposted by John SjoholmPaul T. Levin @paultlevin.bsky.social · 18/04/2026The closure of the Strait of Hormuz reignites plans for alternative transportation routes, many of which include Turkey’s, whose geography “condemns the country to geopolitical significance,” as one diplomat eloquently puts it. (🎁 article.)giftarticle.ft.comTurkey promotes ‘Middle Corridor’ as Strait of Hormuz alternativeOfficials plan to reopen frontier with Armenia to unlock a Trump-backed trade route between Europe and Asia 0157
John Sjoholm @johnsjoholm.bsky.social · 17/04/2026(Repost due to PEBCAK) ”Power in Lebanon is therefore not removed through kinetic pressure. It is displaced through governance replacement.” ”In Lebanon, durable influence accrues not to the actor capable of applying force, but to the actor capable of governing.” open.substack.com/pub/johnsjoh...open.substack.comLebanon: Beirut and the Polycentric RealityLebanon: Beirut and the Polycentric Reality 000
John Sjoholm @johnsjoholm.bsky.social · 17/04/2026”Power in Lebanon is therefore not removed through kinetic pressure. It is displaced through governance replacement.” 000
John Sjoholm @johnsjoholm.bsky.social · 15/04/2026@robertscotthorton.bsky.social good to see you again Scott. Fb was just not the same without you. -j 000
John Sjoholm @johnsjoholm.bsky.social · 15/04/2026Consequential leadership is defined by its command of time — thinking in continuity, not moments. When tomorrow fades, strategy collapses into tactics, rhetoric overtakes calculation, and leadership loses the temporal discipline that gives it weight.johnsjoholm.substack.comFutura Consideranda: Consequential LeadershipA Leader Considers History 000
John Sjoholm @johnsjoholm.bsky.social · 15/04/2026Russia doesn’t seek to rule over the Western Balkans; it seeks to manage predictable instability. Through energy leverage, proxies, religious networks and hybrid tactics, Moscow keeps the region aligned through friction, not force. A managed condition, not a war.johnsjoholm.substack.comStably Unstable: The Architecture of Russia’s Hybrid War in the Western Balkans (2026)Stability is not the objective. Predictable instability is. 000
John Sjoholm @johnsjoholm.bsky.social · 15/04/2026The weaponisation of the Suffering. Refugee flows aren’t just humanitarian failures. Managed displacement becomes a weapon few can stop — scalable and devastating. Hungary, Russia, Turkey and others use it with great success against the West. johnsjoholm.substack.com/p/202512281-...johnsjoholm.substack.comHuman suffering scales efficiently when it is managed.Weaponisation of the Suffering – Frozen Conflicts, Displacement, and the Utility of Human Movement 141