iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

So don’t let Trump or his minions fool you - had he persisted on this tariffs course, bond yields likely would have continued to rise, risking greater market contagion and ultimately a nasty recession. This is why Trump blinked.

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Treasuries are the bedrock of the financial system. If this yields shot up, that affects everything from the housing market, credit cards, and numerous other economic factors that benchmark on yields.

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Specifically, the 10-year Treasury saw its biggest 3 day jump since 2001. Had Trump not blinked, we could have witnessed more mass selling in treasuries, rising yields, and market seizure (where a safe haven asset loses liquidity and can’t trade easily)

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John Polonis @johnpolonis.bsky.social · 08/04/2025

If you want to know why Trump blinked and paused tariffs, it wasn’t because of the “art of the deal” or even the stock market - it was because of the bond market

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Americans have consistently chosen service economy over manufacturing jobs when given the choice. The majority of us do not want to work in factories.

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Even when they don’t belong to you, children bring joy and hope to society. We need that more than ever. 6/6

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We risk the future of humanity, economic and technological progress, and something even more fundamental - happiness. I can’t tell you how many times my son brightened up the faces of people simply passing by his stroller when he was a baby. 5/6

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Children should be accepted in adult spaces, provided their parents act responsibly and watch them. If we don’t promote children in society, we’ll soon see more ghost towns or schools like those in South Korea with a handful of students. 4/6

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Having children is a deeply personal and biological choice (some people can’t have them). But we should be doing more to promote children and nurture those that are here - better government funded childcare, mandated paternity/maternity leave, and educational programs. 3/6

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There’s no one factor driving it. Environmental, societal, cultural, technological, etc. all contribute. I don’t subscribe to the Elon Musk and tech bro view that everyone must have as many kids as possible. 2/6

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John Polonis @johnpolonis.bsky.social · 01/04/2025

South Korea has a fertility rate of 0.7. This is the lowest rate of any nation in the world and may be the lowest in recorded human history. South Korea is an outlier now, but many other western countries are also experiencing birth rate decline. 1/6

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Today we’ll find out if the people of Wisconsin are fine with Elon Musk buying their elections.

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John Polonis @johnpolonis.bsky.social · 31/03/2025

If Trump tries to run for a third term, then Obama should too. Only fair.

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Typical. When MAGA is in power, they are full blown unitary executives where POTUS has all the authority. When Dems are in power, POTUS is leader of small central government with little authority.

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There would be outrage. Yet Musk gets a pass with MAGA supporters who clearly live by the motto - “do as I say, not as I do.” We need to significantly limit money in elections from all sides, but Musk should be prosecuted here.

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Oh wait, that was Elon Musk. Imagine the response from MAGA and the far right if anyone on the left tried to buy an election in the direct manner that Musk has here (similar to what he did during the 2024 race in PA).

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Once he was called out for committing a blatant felony, directly violating Wisconsin law prohibiting offering anything worth more than $1 to get someone to “vote or refrain from voting”, he amended the ad to promise he would give the checks to spokespeople for a petition.

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George Soros advertised a contest that would award two voters a million dollars each, with the condition that the winners had to have already voted in the Wisconsin Supreme Court election.

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Apparently he’s only a squealer in public though, not on Signal chats 🫣

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The Assault on Big Law and Lawyers - PolisPandit

...They will be trying to guess whether certain representations or legal actions may anger President Trump or someone close (hi, Elon!)." Read the full essay here: polispandit.com/the-assault-...

polispandit.com

Not everyone likes lawyers, but society needs us to represent all sides under the law

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"This is about more than short-term business and losing clients or rainmaking lawyers. This threatens the entire practice of law as we know it. Lawyers will no longer have the freedom to practice law in accordance with the law. They will be thinking about political ramifications... 1/2

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Instead, Elon has with him a team of white male tech bros who have no understanding of government, likely minimal training in law and liberal arts, and therefore no idea of unintended consequences. Disaster. 5/5

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Where are the professional auditors? Forensic accountants? Lawyers with internal investigation experience? Inspector generals that Trump keeps firing who know government? 4/5

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This will make America poorer, dumber, and less competitive globally. I’m all for cutting waste, fraud, and abuse in government, but this is NOT the way to do it. 3/5

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Unless he cuts into Defense significantly, this cannot be done without cutting at least half of the $1.8 trillion the U.S. spent on non-defense discretionary programs in 2024 (education, public health, scientific research, infrastructure, etc.). 2/5

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Elon Musk told Fox News that he believes DOGE can cut “$1 trillion in government spending.” 1/5

Don’t learn to code. Most of those jobs will be obsolete in a few years. Learn philosophy instead. Learn how to think critically. Solve problems. Understand ethical dilemmas that algorithms and AI will need to account for. These are the crucial skills of the 21st century.

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Guess Trump forgot that Robert Mueller was actually a Republican his entire life.

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John Polonis @johnpolonis.bsky.social · 27/03/2025

One of the most disgustingly partisan executive orders I’ve ever read. Law firms need to grow spines and act with the swagger they’re known for - capitulating to a strongman ain’t it.

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First three runs of game one of the MLB season and they are all home runs. Look, I love baseball, but this version of the game where it’s almost always a home run or a strike out is not entertaining for anyone.

John Polonis @johnpolonis.bsky.social · 27/03/2025

Happy baseball opening day! The world is a crazy place right now, but at least we now have the daily certainty of baseball. It’s gotten America through worse.

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John Polonis @johnpolonis.bsky.social · 26/03/2025

Fascinating how there are clips of Trump saying similar things about all of his closest supporters, yet it only makes them support him more. Just ask Little Marco or Ted Cruz’s wife.

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John Polonis @johnpolonis.bsky.social · 26/03/2025

This is one of the best pieces I’ve read on the Ukraine War, and the history of Russian propaganda and perception manipulation. Putin is winning the messaging game, as many of his talking points are consistently parroted in America, especially by those on the right.

understandingwar.org

Institute for the Study of War

The notion that the war is unwinnable because of Russia’s dominance is a Russian information operation, which gives us a glimpse of the Kremlin’s real strategy and only real hope of success. The Kreml...

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John Polonis @johnpolonis.bsky.social · 24/03/2025

I can see this catching on for solo travelers or sociable couples, but not sure this works for families or anyone looking for an escape. Maybe I’m a curmudgeon in my late 30s but dining with randos is last on my list or what to do on vacation.

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John Polonis @johnpolonis.bsky.social · 24/03/2025

What do people think of the hotel dining trend where hotels like 25hours in Florence or Patina Maldives sit you with a bunch of strangers to transform dining into social experiences?

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John Polonis @johnpolonis.bsky.social · 20/03/2025

I don’t blame any Canadian or European or anyone else for that matter who hates us Americans right now. I hate us too at the moment. We need a cultural reawakening from our current traumatic state.

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John Polonis @johnpolonis.bsky.social · 18/03/2025

We need a new way to think about Donald Trump’s foreign policy. He’s not an isolationist. He’s not an imperialist. He’s both. Unprecedented times call for new terminology - imperial isolationism. More from today’s newsletter: polispandit.substack.com/p/imperial-i...

Imperial Isolationism: Foreign Policy Under Trump 2.0

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John Polonis @johnpolonis.bsky.social · 16/03/2025

I recently finished Daniel Kahneman’s mega-bestseller, ‘Thinking, Fast and Slow’, which celebrates rational thinking and behavioral psychology. It’s hard for me to reconcile those teachings with Kahneman’s decision to end his life through assisted suicide. I wrote about it in today’s newsletter.

Should Assisted Suicide Be Legal?

A consequential decision made by one of the greatest decision makers of all time

John Polonis @johnpolonis.bsky.social · 10/03/2025

The top 1% owns 30% of U.S. wealth, with Silicon Valley comprising nearly 10% of U.S. GDP - so it’s no wonder many in tech have shifted rightward politically as they increasingly view the state as an inconvenience and a threat to their concentration of wealth.

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John Polonis @johnpolonis.bsky.social · 10/03/2025

"There’s a more fundamental truth at play here — moving fast and breaking things may work at a tech company where workers can quickly make product updates with new code. This strategy, however, doesn’t work so well with the U.S. federal government, where human lives are directly at stake."

open.substack.com

Clipping Elon's Wings

Plus White Lotus, 2 great political stories, and a bagel review

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John Polonis @johnpolonis.bsky.social · 08/03/2025

The big question is: Who are the investors holding the bulk of the bag? Who effectively gave Trump and his team $350 million via a $TRUMP memecoin that has no utility apart from speculation? polispandit.substack.com/p/the-350-mi...

The $350 Million Question

And other stories from The Political Prism, along with a luxury comparison

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John Polonis @johnpolonis.bsky.social · 25/02/2025

Latest newsletter out now analyzing Trump’s negotiating tactics with Ukraine and Russia based on the principles from his own book, and analyzing the geopolitical implications of such tactics. 3/3 polispandit.substack.com/p/ukraine-an...

Ukraine and Trump's Art of the Deal

For Trump, Ukraine is the adversary, not Russia

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John Polonis @johnpolonis.bsky.social · 25/02/2025

Similar to how Trump’s U.S. should be able to threaten its neighbors with trade wars and annexation. Hence why Trump has targeted Canada, Greenland, and the Panama Canal Zone with this new wave of U.S. imperialism.” 2/3

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John Polonis @johnpolonis.bsky.social · 25/02/2025

“Trump views the world as a zero-sum game with winners and losers. From Trump’s perspective, Russia is the domineering winner in its sphere of influence, and therefore it should be free to express its power how it chooses... 1/3